nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒02‒08
seven papers chosen by

  1. Consequences of FTA Withdrawal: Evidence from "Uxit" By Hinnerk Gnutzmann; Arevik Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan; Tobias Korn
  2. Marching to Good Laws: The Impact of War, Politics, and International Credit on Reforms in Ukraine By Artem Kochnev
  3. Macroeconomic Effects of Reforms on Three Diverse Oil Exporters: Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UK By Samya Beidas-Strom; Marco Lorusso
  4. Politically motivated intergovernmental transfers in Russia : The case of the 2018 FIFA World Cup By Paustyan, Ekaterina
  5. Republic of Belarus; Technical Assistance Report-Work of Mission on Development of Potential in Area of Government Finance Statistics By International Monetary Fund
  6. Deposit Insurance, Moral Hazard and Bank Risk By Alexei Karas; William Pyle; Koen Schoors
  7. Interdependence of sectors of economic activities for world countries from the reduced Google matrix analysis of WTO data By Célestin Coquidé; José Lages; Dima L. Shepelyansky

  1. By: Hinnerk Gnutzmann; Arevik Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan; Tobias Korn
    Abstract: We use a unique case study to estimate the effect of withdrawing from a free trade agreement on international trade. Lately, the political opposition to international economic cooperation has been on the rise, but little is known about how the withdrawal from a trade agreement affects trade. We analyze a quasi-natural experiment to provide first empirical evidence. In 2004, Estonia joined the European Union, which mandated that it withdraws from its FTA with Ukraine (“Uxit”). Based on the gravity model of international trade, we provide evidence from triple difference–in–differences as well as PPML panel estimations that trade volumes between Estonia and Ukraine fell by more than 20%. We find that withdrawing an FTA revokes all benefits and that no institutional memory is left behind. General equilibrium estimates suggest that FTA withdrawal led to a noticeable loss in welfare of members.
    Keywords: free trade agreement, withdrawal, gravity, European Union, Estonia, Ukraine
    JEL: F13 F14 F15 F17
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Artem Kochnev
    Abstract: The paper investigates determinants of investments in state capacity and institutional change in contemporary Ukraine. After formulating a simple sequential two-stage model of investments in state capacity, the paper estimates autoregressive distributed lag and vector autoregressive models to verify its predictions. The paper finds little evidence for the impact of conflict intensity and access to international credit on the pace of reform progress. It finds a statistically significant effect for the intensity of political competition and changes of real wages, albeit these results are sensitive to robustness checks.
    Keywords: cost of war, political cycles, transition economics, Ukraine crisis, political economy, state capacity
    JEL: D74 E01 E20 F51
    Date: 2021–01
  3. By: Samya Beidas-Strom; Marco Lorusso
    Abstract: We build and estimate open economy two-bloc DSGE models to study the transmission and impact of shocks in Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom. After accounting for country-specific fiscal and monetary sectors, we estimate their key policy and structural parameters. Our findings suggest that not only has output responded differently to shocks due to differing levels of diversification and structural and policy settings, but also the responses to fiscal consolidation differ: Russia would benefit from a smaller state foot-print, while in Saudi Arabia, unless this is accompanied by structural reforms that remove rigidities, output would fall. We also find that lower oil prices need not be bad news given more oil-intensive production structures. However, lower oil prices have hurt these oil producers as their public finances depend heavily on oil, among other factors. Productivity gains accompanied by ambitious structural reforms, along with fiscal and monetary reforms could support these economies to achieve better outcomes when oil prices fall, including via diversifying exports.
    Keywords: Oil prices;Labor;Oil;Consumption;Oil, gas and mining taxes;WP,exchange rate,monetary policy,trade balance,labour market
    Date: 2019–10–11
  4. By: Paustyan, Ekaterina
    Abstract: This paper studies the distribution of politically motivated intergovernmental transfers in Russia focusing on the case of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. It investigates what factors have accounted for the selection of the 2018 FIFA World Cup venues. Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 14 cases reveals that well-connected political elites were able to secure the right for their regions to host the championship and, as a result, to extract additional funds from the center. These findings are in line with the argument that the regional governments in Russia play an important role in the distribution of politically sensitive transfers. Taking into account that these transfers have been increasing over the past years, there is no surprise that the regional elites have developed various lobbying strategies and mechanisms for attracting them.
    JEL: E62 L83 O23 P26 R11
    Date: 2021–01–28
  5. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: In consultation with the Republic of Belarus Ministry of Finance (MoF), a government finance statistics (GFS) technical assistance (TA) mission from the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) visited Minsk from November 13 through 24, 2017. The main objective of the mission was to take stock of the progress in government finance statistics in the Republic of Belarus and to provide assistance to the MoF in improving the quality of statistical data. Government finance statistics provide a comprehensive conceptual and accounting framework suitable for the analysis and evaluation of fiscal policy, and in particular the performance of the general government sector of any country. One of the biggest advantages of the introduction of GFS methodology into budgeting is the achievement of consistency in budgeting, financial reporting, and statistics. Use of the same terminology by those engaged in budgeting, reporting, and statistics should ensure common understanding among all of the stakeholders. The comparability of numbers, tables, and accounts is significantly enhanced, which means an improvement in productivity and in the timely availability of data.
    Keywords: Public sector;Government finance statistics;Loans;Budget planning and preparation;Securities;ISCR,CR,enterprise,accounts payable,debt forgiveness,national budget
    Date: 2018–12–11
  6. By: Alexei Karas; William Pyle; Koen Schoors
    Abstract: Using evidence from Russia, we explore the effect of the introduction of deposit insurance on bank risk. Drawing on variation in the ratio of firm deposits to total household and firm deposits before the announcement of deposit insurance, so as to capture the magnitude of the decrease in market discipline after the introduction of deposit insurance, we demonstrate that larger declines in market discipline generate larger increases in traditional measures of risk. These results hold in a difference-in-difference setting in which private domestic banks serve as the treatment group and state and foreign-owned banks, whose deposit insurance regime does not change, serve as a control group.
    Keywords: deposit insurance, market discipline, moral hazard, risk taking, banks, Russia
    JEL: G21 G28 P34
    Date: 2021
  7. By: Célestin Coquidé (UTINAM - Univers, Transport, Interfaces, Nanostructures, Atmosphère et environnement, Molécules (UMR 6213) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]); José Lages (UTINAM - Univers, Transport, Interfaces, Nanostructures, Atmosphère et environnement, Molécules (UMR 6213) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UFC - Université de Franche-Comté - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]); Dima L. Shepelyansky (Information et Chaos Quantiques (LPT) - LPT - Laboratoire de Physique Théorique - IRSAMC - Institut de Recherche sur les Systèmes Atomiques et Moléculaires Complexes - INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We apply the recently developed reduced Google matrix algorithm for the analysis of the OECD-WTO world network of economic activities. This approach allows to determine interdependences and interactions of economy sectors of several countries, including China, Russia and USA, properly taking into account the influence of all other world countries and their economic activities. Within this analysis we also obtain the sensitivity of economy sectors and EU countries to petroleum activity sector. We show that this approach takes into account multiplicity of network links with economy interactions between countries and activity sectors thus providing more rich information compared to the usual export-import analysis.
    Keywords: World Trade Organization,networks,Google matrix,Markovian process,PageRank
    Date: 2020–12–13

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