nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒02‒01
thirteen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. ‘Where have all the distortions gone?’ Appellate Body Report, Ukraine – Ammonium Nitrate, WT/DS493/AB By Cristina Herghelegiu; Luca Rubini
  2. Стратегический подход к анализу медиасистемы России By Vartanov, Sergey
  3. Foreign Direct Investment in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Russia since the 2000s By Mahir Suleymanov
  4. Republic of Armenia; Fiscal Transparency Evaluation By International Monetary Fund
  5. Household Over-Indebtedness in Russia By World Bank
  6. Republic of Uzbekistan; Strengthening Fiscal Transparency By International Monetary Fund
  7. Republic of Lithuania; Fiscal Transparency Evaluation By International Monetary Fund
  8. Взаимосвязь экономического развития и возрастной структуры населения регионов Российской Федерации By Alexey, Kurbatskiy; Nikita, Artamonov; Timur, Khalimov
  9. Republic of Uzbekistan; Technical Assistance Report-Fiscal Transparency Evaluation Update By International Monetary Fund
  10. Assessment of the Public Procurement Systems of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Sovereign Wealth Fund Samruk-Kazyna By World Bank; OECD; European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; Islamic Development Bank; Asian Development Bank
  11. Asymmetric transmission and effects of resource shocks: Case of Mongolia By Chuluunbayar, Delgerjargal
  12. This paper provides a sound ex-post evaluation of the impact of the Eurasian integration on member countries’ bilateral trade after ten years of implementation. We overcome the main limitations of current empirical analyses on the effects of trade agreements, namely the aggregation of tariff and non-tariff barriers and the likely self-selection bias, by applying a mean balancing approach, a novel non-parametric method specifically designed to fully exploit time-series cross-sectional data. We thus compare the trade flows of the member countries in the Eurasian agreement with 754 exporter-importer pairs located in the Eurasian continent having similar pre-treatment features. Our results confirm the previous literature about the lack of a significant impact of the Eurasian customs union, but find positive net effects of more recent integration steps. These results are robust in respect of several sensitivity tests, and provide evidence of the need to deepen Eurasian integration. By Augusto Cerqua; Pierluigi Montalbano; Zhansaya Temerbulatova
  13. Republic of Uzbekistan; 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: Cristina Herghelegiu; Luca Rubini
    Abstract: This article reviews the Appellate Body Report in the Ukraine – Ammonium Nitrate dispute that focused on the impact of Russia’s dual pricing in the natural gas market on the ammonium nitrate market. Interpreting the WTO Anti-Dumping Agreement (‘ADA’), the Appellate Body rejected the possibility to reject input costs, which, though distorted, were duly reported in the company’s records, and to replace them with a surrogate price which, for the Ukrainian authorities, was the (adjusted) export price of Russian natural gas at the German border. In this article, a) we fully review the background of the dispute, showing the connections between natural gas and ammonium nitrate prices, and the impact on Russia’s price regulation of the domestic market on them; b) we then review the ADA and concur with the interpretation of the Appellate Body, essentially for systemic reasons; c) for completeness, we also investigate whether econometrics could accurately determine the natural gas benchmark price in Russia and conclude in the negative; d) since dual pricing gives an economic benefit to domestic ammonium nitrate producers, we finally test dual pricing under the WTO subsidy rules. The conclusion is that the current disciplines are not likely to apply to dual pricing and lead us to conclude that important distortions are currently left without regulation in the WTO.
    Keywords: Antidumping, discriminatory pricing, subsidies, natural gas, WTO dispute settlement
    JEL: F13 F51 Q34
    Date: 2020–12
  2. By: Vartanov, Sergey
    Abstract: Медиа в современном мире трансформировались в полноценную индустрию, встроенную в национальную экономику своей страны и неразрывно связанную с остальными отраслями. Высокая степень зависимости между основными экономическими показателями отрасли медиа и макроэкономическими показателями обуславливает важность задачи разработки ее долгосрочной стратегии (медиастратегирования). Современная медиаотрасль является драйвером экономического роста страны и благосостояния ее граждан за счет трех базовых каналов влияния. Во-первых, развитие медиасистемы стимулирует технологический и институциональный прогресс телекоммуникационной сферы за счет высокий уровня интеграции этих отраслей. Во-вторых, уровень развития медиасистемы как источника информации и базиса экономики идей по Фелпсу оказывает стимулирующее влияние на уровень предпринимательской активности. В-третьих, развитая медиасистема обладает возможностью самостоятельно удовлетворять ряд индивидуальных потребностей, повышая общий уровень жизни членов общества и приближая его к состоянию эвдемонии. В настоящей работе рассматриваются подходы к разработке стратегии медиасистемы России на основе теории стратегии академика РАН В.Л.Квинта, теории медиа и математической экономики. Для медиасистемы как объекта стратегирования обсуждаются миссия, ценности и задачи, подходы к формулировке и стратегических приоритетов, а в качестве математического аппарата их оценки предлагаются стратегический медиамониторинг, микро- и макроэкономические модели межотраслевых связей, в том числе модели трехсторонних рынков.
    Keywords: медиастратегирование, медиаэкономика, медиамониторинг, модели трехстороннего рынка, медиарекламный рынок
    JEL: L10 L82 M0 O21
    Date: 2020–12–11
  3. By: Mahir Suleymanov (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This paper aims to analyze the role of FDI inflow in the Russian economy and determine the degree of impact on the economic growth rate. The empirical research captures 2000-2019 years specifying by quarterly time-series. Although, in general, it is considered that the FDI can transmit technology and development to the host country, but this paper shows that in the case of Russia, the role of FDI inflow into the country has an endogenous component, which does not exert a robust impact on the economic growth.
    Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, economic growth, transition economies, Endogeneity
    JEL: F21 F43
    Date: 2021–01
  4. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This paper presents Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) for Armenia. This report provides 10 recommendations aimed at further enhancing fiscal transparency in the areas prioritized. Fiscal forecasts and budgets have become more forward looking and policy oriented, with the introduction of a medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), improved fiscal objectives, and a performance budgeting system. The report presents the assessment of fiscal transparency practices against the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC). Armenia’s fiscal transparency practices have strengths and weaknesses in all areas of FTC: fiscal reporting, fiscal forecasting and budgeting, and fiscal risk disclosure and management. The fiscal transparency evaluation also estimates Armenia’s public sector financial position, in order to provide a more comprehensive view of public finances. Expanding the institutional coverage of Armenia’s fiscal reports to the entire public sector would increase the deficit by 1.3 percent of gross domestic product and would have a material impact on revenue and expenditure.
    Keywords: Budget planning and preparation;Fiscal risks;Budget execution and treasury management;Expenditure;Medium-term budget frameworks;ISCR,CR,annual budget,budget documentation,central government,balance sheet,fiscal policy,real GDP
    Date: 2019–05–15
  5. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Finance and Financial Sector Development - Debt Markets Finance and Financial Sector Development - Finance and Development Finance and Financial Sector Development - Financial Literacy Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Consumption
    Date: 2019
  6. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This paper on the Republic of Uzbekistan focuses on the fiscal transparency in the country. This report provides further guidance to support implementation of the fiscal transparency evaluation recommendations and the government’s plans to strengthen transparency. The IMF team worked with the authorities to further strengthen the application of the Government Finance Statistics Manual standards, improve the budget classification, presentation and reporting; strengthen fiscal risk disclosure and address other fiscal transparency-related issues. Steps have been taken to improve the coverage of Government Finance Statistics reports; however, further work is required. Wide-ranging reforms to improve the coverage, reliability, quality and accessibility of fiscal reports are being developed. A Presidential Decree, approved in August 2018, sets out measures to enhance budget openness and transparency, increase the engagement of citizens in the budget process, and strengthen parliamentary and public scrutiny of the budget.
    Keywords: Budget planning and preparation;Fiscal risks;Budget classification;Financial statements;Fiscal transparency;ISCR,CR,government,budget,state budget,Economy,government ownership share
    Date: 2019–05–01
  7. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) paper on the Republic of Lithuania estimated Lithuania’s public sector financial position to take a more comprehensive view of public finances in Lithuania. While Lithuania’s overall assessment is comparable to or better than other EU Member States that have undergone an FTE, there is room for further improvement. While the Lithuanian authorities publish a large volume of fiscal reports, they are somewhat fragmented and not easily comparable. The paper also highlights that fiscal risk analysis and management also meets good or advanced practice in many areas but are slightly weaker than the other pillars of the evaluation. It is recommended to consolidate the present array of fiscal reports into a smaller number of user-friendly reports that improve the consistency and comparability of information, as well as its transparency. The report also provides a more detailed evaluation of Lithuania’s fiscal transparency practices and recommended reform priorities.
    Keywords: Budget planning and preparation;Financial statements;Fiscal risks;Expenditure;Fiscal reporting;ISCR,CR,State budget implementation report,central government,real GDP,balance sheet,gross revenue
    Date: 2019–05–03
  8. By: Alexey, Kurbatskiy; Nikita, Artamonov; Timur, Khalimov
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the interconnection between the economic growth and the age structure. It is assumed that while modeling economic growth, we should take in consideration such indicators, as the ones that describe age distribution of people, which also, in some degree, explain the supply of human capital. In this paper we carried out an econometric analysis of the age structure’s impact on economic development in regions of Russian Federation based on panel data from 2001 to 2016. The panel has been tested for unit root (CIPS-test) and spatial correlations (Moran’s I, Moran’s test, RW-test). The basic regression model in the paper is the panel linear regression with spatial lag and spatial autocorrelated error term (SARAR regression). The choice of regression model is based on the results of panel data tests. Although the coefficients for some age groups are significant in the model, their marginal responses are insignificant due to spillover effects. As a result, it is shown, that the greatest positive effect on economic growth is from age category 25-39 years. The impacts of the significant age categories are estimated.
    Keywords: demography, economic growth, aging, age structure, GRP.
    JEL: J1 J11 R11
    Date: 2020–08–01
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Fiscal Transparency Evaluation report on the Republic of Uzbekistan provides a summary of progress made since that evaluation was conducted and is based on practices in place at the time of a Fiscal Affairs Department visit. Uzbekistan has improved its fiscal transparency practices against eight of the Code’s standards since the June evaluation. Most improvements have been accomplished in the areas of fiscal forecasts and budgeting, and fiscal risk disclosure. A road map has also been developed to expand the coverage and quality of fiscal reports and better align these with international standards, further enhance fiscal risk disclosure, and ensure greater parliamentary scrutiny of the budget. Work has also commenced to identify all off-budget fiscal activities, and, the government has committed to including these in future budget and government finance statistics (GFS) reports. Efforts are also underway to expand the coverage of GFS reports, so that they reflect all general government fiscal transactions, including those of nonmarket state-owned enterprises.
    Keywords: Budget planning and preparation;Fiscal risks;Fiscal policy;Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts;Fiscal transparency;ISCR,CR,budget,budget message,Uzbekistan,fund,expenditure
    Date: 2019–05–01
  10. By: World Bank; OECD; European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; Islamic Development Bank; Asian Development Bank
    Keywords: Public Sector Development - Public Financial Management Public Sector Development - Public Sector Corruption/Anticorruption Measures Public Sector Development - Regulatory Regimes Governance - National Governance
    Date: 2019
  11. By: Chuluunbayar, Delgerjargal
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on Dutch disease by studying the transmission of resource shocks in Mongolia. Asymmetric resource shock transmissions adjusted for the business cycle stage were estimated using a Markov Switching Vector Autoregression model (VAR) and data from 2000Q1 to 2019Q4. The results of these and additional estimates employing recursive and non-recursive VAR models found evidence of a positive technological spillover effect from the resource sector on the Mongolian economy. However, it is evident that the main source of economic volatility is from the mining sector.
    Keywords: Resource shocks, Mongolia, Markov Switching VAR, SVAR
    JEL: C32 E32 F43 F62
    Date: 2020–10
  12. By: Augusto Cerqua (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome); Pierluigi Montalbano (Department of Social Sciences and Economics, Sapienza University of Rome); Zhansaya Temerbulatova (Al-Farabi Kazakh National University)
    Keywords: Eurasian Economic Union, bilateral trade, preferential trade agreements; policy evaluation; mean balancing
    JEL: F13 F14 F15
    Date: 2021–01
  13. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that given its bulging working-age population, creating more and better jobs is the country’s overarching priority. Uzbekistan has already implemented a first wave of important economic reforms, including foreign exchange liberalization, tax reform, and a major upgrade in statistics. Faced with a vast structural reform agenda, the authorities want to prioritize reforms that address the economy’s most damaging distortions first. The main short-term macroeconomic stability challenge is to prevent a credit boom that could generate excessive external deficits and aggravate inflation pressures. A tight monetary stance and moderate fiscal deficits need to be maintained to support macroeconomic stability. Credit growth will need to slow significantly to assure the economy’s external and internal balance. The sustainable development goals are anchoring the country’s inclusive growth agenda, especially on education, health, public infrastructure, and financial inclusion. Moreover, the authorities are redesigning labor policies from scratch to help unskilled and other disadvantaged workers find more and better jobs.
    Keywords: External debt;Public debt;Credit;Foreign exchange;Expenditure;ISCR,CR,debt,GDP,Uzbekistan,exchange rate,authority
    Date: 2019–05–09

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