nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒01‒25
24 papers chosen by

  1. Russian Translations of Sophie De Segur’s Works in the Context of General Strategies of Pre-Revolutionary Children’s Literature By Kirill, Chekalov (Чекалов, Кирилл)
  2. Расчетная модель общего равновесия для оценки экономического эффекта ранней диагностики болезни Паркинсона By Tourdyeva, Natalia; Bogatova, Irina; Vartanov, Sergey; Denisova, Irina; Chubarova, Tatiana; Shakleina, Marina; Polterovich, Victor
  3. A retrospective analysis of the implementation and realization of applied bachelor degree programs in Russia and abroad By Blinov, Vladimir (Блинов, Владимир); Satdylov, Airat (Сатдыков, Айрат); Kurteeva, Larisa (Куртеева, Светлана); Osadcheva, Svetlana (Осадчева, Светлана)
  4. Latency and Economic Concert of India’s Trade with Russia: An Empirical Investigation By Wani, Nassir Ul Haq
  5. Consequences of FTA Withdrawal: Evidence from 'Uxit' By Gnutzmann, Hinnerk, Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik; Korn, Tobias
  6. An empirical behavioral model of households’ deposit dollarization By Ramis Khabibullin; Alexey Ponomarenko
  7. Study of the influence of prices for petroleum products on their consumption in road transport By Gordeev, Dmitriy (Гордеев, Дмитрий); Kosukhina, Ekaterina (Косухина, Екатерина)
  8. Development of the concept of selection and formation of the content of secondary vocational education and vocational training By Blinov, Vladimir (Блинов, Владимир); Sazonov, Boris (Сазонов, Борис); Satdylov, Airat (Сатдыков, Айрат)
  9. Kyrgyz Republic; 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  11. Republic of Armenia; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  12. Republic of Estonia; Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment By International Monetary Fund
  13. Ethnic and cultural heterogeneity as a theoretical and managerial problem By Malakhov, Vladimir (Малахов, Владимир); Letnyakov, Denis (Летняков, Денис); Simon, Mark (Симон, Марк); Motin, Alexander (Мотин, Александр); Osipov, A. G. (Осипов, А. Г.); Budisenko, A. A. (Будисенко, А. А.)
  14. How to align formal land rights with farmers' perceptions in Central Asia? By Akhmadiyeva, Zarema; Herzfeld, Thomas
  15. Knowledge monitoring algorithm development for universities, using proctoring tools, for a group of students By Goncharenko, Lyudmila; Sybachin, Sergey; Khachaturov, Grigory
  16. Setting the Agenda for Further District Heating Reform in Ukraine By World Bank
  17. Ukraine 2019 Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Performance Assessment Report By World Bank
  18. Как согласовать формальные права на землю с реальными представлениями фермеров о землепользовании в Центральной Азии? By Akhmadiyeva, Zarema; Herzfeld, Thomas
  19. Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Caucasus and Central Asia By Tigran Poghosyan
  20. Georgia; Fourth Review Under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement and Request for Modifications of Quantitative Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and a Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia By International Monetary Fund
  21. Republic of Armenia; 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for a Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Armenia By International Monetary Fund
  22. Kyrgyz Republic; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  23. Measuring Sudden Stops in Mongolia By Batjargal, Dulamzaya; Doojav, Gan-Ochir
  24. Global Value Chains and Productivity: Micro Evidence from Estonia By Hang T. Banh; Philippe Wingender; Cheikh A. Gueye

  1. By: Kirill, Chekalov (Чекалов, Кирилл) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The work concerns the process of perception of the Countess de Segur's creativity in Russia. Despite the fact that "Les Malheurs de Sophie" was read extremely widely in Russia, the works of Sofya Fedorovna were most often ignored by the press and were often absent from the recommendation lists for children's reading. Her works appear in the Index of Books for Children and Popular Reading, published in 1892, but in the index attached to this publication we find instead of Sophia Feodorovna “Count de Seguur” - that is, Louis Philippe de Segur, her husband's grandfather .. More the situation is sadder with the extensive index compiled in 1910 by the children's writer M.R. Lemke. In the introductory article, the author of the reference book claims that he has been studying the problems of children's reading for a long time. All publications included in the index are divided into four age categories: "books for babies" (from 3 to 7 years old), "books for young children" (from 7 to 9 years old), "books for middle age" (from 9 to 12 years old), “Books for older age” (from 12 to 15 years old). Alas, the works of Countess de Segur are not represented in any of these categories.
    Date: 2020–05
  2. By: Tourdyeva, Natalia; Bogatova, Irina; Vartanov, Sergey; Denisova, Irina; Chubarova, Tatiana; Shakleina, Marina; Polterovich, Victor
    Abstract: This paper presents a new CGE model of the Russian economy with a health block. We estimate effects of Parkinson's disease (PD) on the Russian economy and population. We distinguish two mechanisms transmitting effects of the PD: a change in the quality of life of a representative household and a decrease in labor supply due to early retirement caused by PD. Our main focus is on effects of early diagnosis of PD coupled with the use of neuroprotective therapy at the prodromal stage of PD. Calculations showed that the cumulative economic effect of PD on the Russian economy, taking into account the forecast of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years, can lead to a loss of real GDP in the amount of -0.86%, and a decrease in the utility of households over the same period in the amount of -1.11% of the consumption level of the base year. The high efficiency of early diagnosis in combination with neuroprotective therapy was shown: the cumulative effect, taking into account the prognosis of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years of using this method, can give a gain of about 0.68% of the base year GDP, which is accompanied by an increase in the welfare of a representative consumer in the amount of 0.88 % of the baseline consumption. We show that the prevailing channel of influence of PD on macroeconomic parameters is the effect of a reduction in the supply of labor due to an increase in the disability of patients with PD.
    Keywords: computable general equilibrium models; CGE with health block; simulations; macroeconomic modelling; Parkinson’s disease; early diagnostic; Russia
    JEL: C68 D58 H43 I18
    Date: 2021–01–10
  3. By: Blinov, Vladimir (Блинов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Satdylov, Airat (Сатдыков, Айрат) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kurteeva, Larisa (Куртеева, Светлана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Osadcheva, Svetlana (Осадчева, Светлана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This preprint presents a retrospective analysis of the implementation practice of the Institute of Applied Bachelor's Degree in Russia and abroad. Applied bachelor's degree is one of the possible directions for the development of secondary vocational education and higher education, combining, on the one hand, the practical orientation of the former and the academicism of the latter. The results of the experiment on the implementation of applied bachelor's degree in domestic practice are presented in this work, the main difficulties and difficulties are described.
    Date: 2020–05
  4. By: Wani, Nassir Ul Haq
    Abstract: This article focuses on Indo-Russia trade relations and evaluates the economic performance of trade in terms of symmetry, complementarity, intensity and similarity and future prospects for Indo-Russia trade relation and the change in the economic scenario over a 24-year period from 1995 to 2018. The article attempted to evaluate Indo-Russia trade using Thiel’s symmetry criteria, trade complementarity index (TCI), and export similarity index (ESI) analysis in exports and imports in different types of goods categorized on the basis of their production. In terms of symmetry, trade is increasingly asymmetric for Russia-India and is much more visible during 1995 as compared to 2018. Moreover, the declining complementarity trend (in 2010 and 2018) is a result of production specialization. Regarding the export similarity of India against Russia, India enjoys a competitive edge in the basic agricultural Commodities. During 2005-2010, the trend reversed as India’s exports were getting much more specialized and back in 2015 the trend of similarity remained in India’s favor.
    Keywords: India, Russia, Exports, Imports, Symmetry
    JEL: F1 F14 F15 F18
    Date: 2020–08–15
  5. By: Gnutzmann, Hinnerk, Gnutzmann-Mkrtchyan, Arevik; Korn, Tobias
    Abstract: We use a unique case study to estimate the effect of withdrawing from a free trade agreement on international trade. Lately, the political opposition to international economic cooperation has been on the rise, but little is known about how the withdrawal from a trade agreement affects trade. We analyze a quasi-natural experiment to provide first empirical evidence. In 2004, Estonia joined the European Union, which mandated that it withdraws from its FTA with Ukraine (``Uxit''). Based on the gravity model of international trade, we provide evidence from triple difference-in-differences as well as PPML panel estimations that trade volumes between Estonia and Ukraine fell by more than 20%. We find that withdrawing an FTA revokes all benefits and that no institutional memory is left behind. General equilibrium estimates suggest that FTA withdrawal led to a noticeable loss in welfare of members.
    Keywords: free trade agreement, withdrawal, gravity, European Union, Estonia, Ukraine
    JEL: F14 F14 F15 F17
    Date: 2021–01
  6. By: Ramis Khabibullin (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: We use the behavioral concept to endogenously model the evolution of the link between households’ deposit dollarization and exchange rate developments in Russia. We estimate the model empirically and show that the reaction of households to exchange rate appreciation weakens when exchange rate developments become more volatile. The proposed model outperforms the contemporary nonlinear time series models in forecasting the changes in dollarization during the Bank of Russia’s transition to a flexible exchange rate regime.
    Keywords: Dollarization, behavioral finance, variational Bayes, Russia
    JEL: C11 D84 E44 G17
    Date: 2020–12
  7. By: Gordeev, Dmitriy (Гордеев, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kosukhina, Ekaterina (Косухина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The aim of the study is to develop methodology to evaluate influence of prices of gasoline fuel and income on fuel consumption of passenger cars. Estimated results will be used for development of recommendations needed for economic growth of Russian Federation.
    Date: 2020–05
  8. By: Blinov, Vladimir (Блинов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sazonov, Boris (Сазонов, Борис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Satdylov, Airat (Сатдыков, Айрат) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This preprint presents materials aimed at creating scientific, methodological and organizational conditions for the development of innovative processes in the system of secondary vocational education and vocational training of the Russian Federation. The study is primarily devoted to the study of the extremely relevant, but poorly studied issue of forming lists of professions and specialties of secondary vocational education, correlating the lists with other classifiers of the labor market and the education system, the economy as a whole. The issues of updating the lists of professions and specialties of secondary vocational education are raised as the most important problem in connection with the need to form a system of advanced training. Particular attention is paid to the development of a methodology for the application in the education system of the Lists of professions and specialties of vocational education associated with the Register of professional standards as the most optimal way to create a flexible and adaptive system of planning and training.
    Date: 2020–05
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The economy is growing steadily, benefiting from a benign regional environment, particularly in Russia, the source of most remittances and non-gold export receipts. Low inflation, lower fiscal deficits, and a stable banking sector point to the success of stabilization policies implemented by the government and National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR, the central bank) under eight successive Fund-supported programs. However, the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks because of the high level of remittances (29 percent of GDP), the concentration of exports on gold (37 percent of exports of goods), the level and composition of the public debt (56 percent of GDP, 4/5 of which is denominated in foreign currency), and the level of the current account deficit (8.7 percent of GDP). In addition, economic growth has been insufficient to significantly raise living standards and continue to reduce poverty.
    Keywords: Public debt;External debt;Banking;Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt;Loans;ISCR,CR,deficit,IMF government Finance Statistics Manual,Kyrgyzstan
    Date: 2019–07–03
  10. By: Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University)
    Abstract: Корпоративне управління є формою організації діяльності корпорації через впорядкований вплив суб'єктів такого управління, їх взаємодію на мікроекономічні процеси, які забезпечують її оптимальне соціоекономічне існування в макроекономічному середовище. Оптимальність соціального і економічного існування відображає рівень досягнення поставлених цілей, мети діяльності корпорації. Не зважаючи не єдність в розумінні значення корпоративного управління, на сьогодні спостерігається чітка диференціація підходів до формування системи управління корпорацією, складу відповідних органів. Очевидним той факт, що в їх основі соціокультурна та економічна специфічність відповідного регіону, що обумовлює індивідуалізацію розвитку макроекономічних ринків. Класичним на сьогоднішньому етапі розвитку суспільства є система екстернального управління (США, Великобританія) передбачає вплив, на розвиток корпорації, отже на модель управління нею, екзогенних економічних факторів, таких, наприклад, як макроекономічні ринки. Індикатором ефективності корпоративного управління виступає рівень капіталізації корпорації на фондовому ринку. В наведеному випадку, акціонерний капітал має низький рівень своєї концентрації з високим рівнем залежності його оборотоздатності від фондового індексу, поточного котирування відповідного фінансового активу. Ефективність корпоративного управління призводить до зміни позитивної динаміки котирування відповідного фінансового активу і навпаки, слабе управління має наслідком зниження вартості активу. Отже фондовий ринок, як основне джерело фінансування, є об'єктивним і саморегулюючим фактором встановлення ефективності корпоративного управління. Висока залежність рівня капіталізації корпорації від зовнішніх факторів, зокрема макроекономічних індикаторів, є свідченням переважаючого характеру спекулятивності руху акціонерного капіталу, отже короткострокові інтереси інвесторів. Наведені умови впливають на формування моделі корпоративного управління. Цей підхід є доволі спрощений та несистемний, а також позбавлений відповідних правових гарантій доброчесності всіх учасників відносин. Безспірно, що в наведений спосіб значно спрощується механізм передачі важелів корпоративного управління юридичною особою. Але, в той же час, відбувається підміна відповідних юридичних категорій. Автором аргументовано, що збереження цілісності полірівневої системи управління корпорацією (скоординоване управління на рівні вищого органу, з управлінням на рівні виконавчого органу корпорації) завдяки можливої трансформації виключно консолідованого комплексу відповідних прав зменшує ризики корпоративного конфлікту між ними, який є одним із тягарів результативності в діяльності корпорації.
    Keywords: Corporate governance codes,Corporate governance mechanisms,Corporate governance systems,Corporate governance quality,Corporate law and regulation
    Date: 2020–05–15
  11. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Armenia seeks to quantify the macroeconomic impact of the government’s reform agenda, which covers three broad areas: tax policy and pension; governance, government efficiency, and corruption; and labor market and competition. Strengthening growth and competitiveness and addressing governance problems requires comprehensive reform efforts. The new government has made it clear that fighting corruption and improving governance remain top priorities. Measures have been proposed to enhance corporate transparency, including through accounting and auditing reforms. A more systematic support program for small and medium-sized enterprises, along with labor market reforms, should also help alleviate unemployment difficulties. The simulations suggest that the government’s tax policy reform can have a positive impact on output in the medium run if it is accompanied by supporting measures. The results suggest that a full implementation of the reform package would yield substantial benefits for the economy. In particular, it could increase real GDP by as much as 7 percent over the long run.
    Keywords: Corruption;Education;Women;Labor markets;Gender diversity;ISCR,CR,Armenia,labor market,IMF staff calculation
    Date: 2019–06–05
  12. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Assistance Report on the Republic of Estonia highlights that public investment is a priority spending area, and Estonia is seeking to strengthen the efficiency and effectiveness of its capital expenditure from an already high level. Estonia’s public investment is relatively efficient, while further improvements should pay attention to the quality of public services enabled by them. Investment implementation is particularly strong. This reflects Estonia’s open procurement framework that utilizes an advanced e-procurement system, its modern treasury that employs an effective Treasury Single Account system to guarantee cash availability, asset monitoring that has been made routine through full accrual accounting for the whole public sector, and active project management by ministries. Some practices that are already effectively implemented should be formalized in the institutional design which will act as a safeguard. Public investment projects should be managed in an integrated portfolio at all stages of the investment cycle. It is difficult to obtain a picture of all-important investment projects pursued in the public sector including by local governments and state-owned enterprises. A comprehensive portfolio view of all projects supports transparent prioritization across sectors and the identification of systemic patterns or risks.
    Keywords: Budget planning and preparation;Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP);Public investment spending;Expenditure;Capital spending;ISCR,CR,balance sheet,capital expenditure,accounting data,local government
    Date: 2019–06–03
  13. By: Malakhov, Vladimir (Малахов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Letnyakov, Denis (Летняков, Денис) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Simon, Mark (Симон, Марк) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Motin, Alexander (Мотин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Osipov, A. G. (Осипов, А. Г.) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Budisenko, A. A. (Будисенко, А. А.) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The growing cultural heterogeneity of large cities in developed countries brings to life a fierce debate about the consequences of this phenomenon. Such debates are held both at the theoretical level (hundreds of conferences and seminars are held each year to comprehend the phenomenon of super-diversity at leading universities) and at the practical level (managers of various levels - from municipal to national - regularly attract experts and NGO representatives to develop new mechanisms of social integration). The paper reveals the content of relevant scientific discussions on diversity management; typological management practices of dealing with cultural diversity in Western and Eastern Europe; features of state-confessional relations in Russia are revealed.
    Keywords: multiculturalism, migration, identity, social integration, urban communities, interfaith relations
    Date: 2020–05
  14. By: Akhmadiyeva, Zarema; Herzfeld, Thomas
    Abstract: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan still undergo the process of establishing a land legislative system, implementing agricultural reforms that aim at increasing land productivity. The effectiveness of these reforms is often dependent on the level of law enforcement that varies in accordance with whether political elites in these countries have an interest in enacting certain reforms. As a result, legal land rights and farmers' perceptions of land rights may contradict each other and may create an uncertain and insecure environment for the farmers. Based on the findings of a farm-level survey conducted in 2019 in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, this policy brief claims that legal rights and farmers' actual farming practices do not coincide in many cases. Deviations appear in both directions: 1) farmers engage in activities which they are not allowed to be, and 2) farmers do not use all the opportunities provided by the national land legislation. These deviations indicate the ineffectiveness not only of land policies but of administrative monitoring and law enforcement mechanisms, too. Policy makers are recommended reconsidering the legal restrictions of land use in how far they are necessary to reach policy objectives. Furthermore, governments should reform the judicial system in particular enabling farmers and land users to appeal to courts for dispute resolutions in an effective, transparent, and fair manner. Finally, international donors should support future research on land rights and tenure security to improve policy design.
    Date: 2020
  15. By: Goncharenko, Lyudmila; Sybachin, Sergey; Khachaturov, Grigory
    Abstract: This article is devoted to the issues associated with the organization and implementation of a reliable monitoring of students' knowledge in a higher education institution in the context of a challenging epidemiological situation in the world and a forced full-scale educational process transfer to an electronic implementation format. In early 2020, higher education institutions were not ready to switch over to a distance work format. Educational organizations encountered a huge list of problems affecting literally every single element of the educational process. The most strongly this transition affected the students' knowledge monitoring process. At that time, universities had neither regulatory, nor methodological information base that could become a basis for developing individual approaches to solving the problem of knowledge monitoring process organization, using information technologies; the experience in arranging training sessions, accumulated by institutions over the past six months, gives the advantage. However, it’s important to understand that it’s impossible to control students' knowledge en-masse in approximately the same time interval without appropriate software and an established performance algorithm & implementation procedure.
    Keywords: distance learning, higher education institutions, knowledge monitoring, algorithm
    JEL: A22 O33
    Date: 2020–11–20
  16. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Energy - Energy Conservation & Efficiency Energy - Energy Consumption Energy - Energy Demand Energy - Energy Policies & Economics Energy - Energy Sector Regulation
    Date: 2019–05
  17. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Public Sector Development - Public Sector Expenditure Policy Public Sector Development - Public Financial Management Public Sector Development - Public Investment Mangement
    Date: 2019–11
  18. By: Akhmadiyeva, Zarema; Herzfeld, Thomas
    Abstract: Казахстан и Узбекистан все еще находятся в процессе формирования системы земельного законодательства и проводят аграрные реформы, направленные на повышение продуктивности сельскохозяйственных земель. Успех реформ в этих странах часто зависит от эффективности системы обеспечения исполнения законов, которая варьируется в зависимости от того, заинтересованы ли политические элиты в проведении этих реформ. Как результат, юридические права на землю и восприятие фермерами этих прав могут противоречить друг другу, создавая неопределённую незащищенную инвестиционную среду. Используя результаты опроса фермерских хозяйств, проведенного в 2019 году в Казахстане и Узбекистане, мы утверждаем, что юридические права и существующие практики землепользования на самом деле не всегда совпадают. Несовпадения могут возникать в двух направлениях: 1) фермеры могут нарушать определенные нормы, предусмотренные действующим земельным законодательством; 2) фермеры могут быть ограничены в полной реализации формальных земельных прав. Эти несовпадения указывают на неэффективность не только земельной политики, но и механизмов административного мониторинга и исполнения законов. Политикам и разработчикам законопроектов рекомендуется пересмотреть правовые ограничения землепользования с учётом их необходимости для достижения целей политики. Кроме того, органам государственного управления в Казахстане и Узбекистане в первую очередь следует реформировать судебную систему: в частности, фермерам и землепользователям должна быть предоставлена возможность решать судебные споры эффективным, прозрачным и справедливым образом. В заключение необходимо отметить особое значение международных доноров в оказании поддержки для проведения будущих исследований по земельным правам и гарантиям владения и пользования для улучшения разработки политики.
    Date: 2020
  19. By: Tigran Poghosyan
    Abstract: This paper estimates the extent and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in seven Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) countries using monthly data over the January 1995–May 2020 period. The estimations are performed using the local projections method. We find that the average pass-through in the CCA is about 10 percent on impact and about 25 percent after 12 months. There is no evidence of asymmetric ERPT with respect to the size and the sign of exchange rate changes. The pass-through is broadly unchanged in fixed versus floating exchange rate regimes. There has been a downward shift in the speed of ERPT in the aftermath of the global financial crisis as CCA countries have entered a relatively low inflation environment. The pass-through estimates could be used by the CCA monetary authorities for inflation projections. The absence of non-linearities in the pass-through with respect to the exchange rate regime suggests that transition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes in the region is not likely to impose additional inflationary costs.
    Keywords: Exchange rates;Exchange rate adjustments;Exchange rate pass-through;Exchange rate arrangements;Inflation;WP,confidence interval
    Date: 2020–08–07
  20. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Recent economic developments. Economic performance remained robust in 2018: growth reached 4.7 percent, supported by external demand; inflation stayed below the three percent target, the fiscal deficit remained in line with program commitments, and the current account improved. Tighter lending standards helped decelerate credit growth towards more sustainable levels. The banking sector remains well capitalized, liquid, and profitable. Dollarization remains elevated. In early 2019, growth conditions were favorable, with average inflation slightly above the target reflecting increased excises.
    Keywords: External debt;Loans;Public debt;Credit;Foreign exchange;ISCR,CR,government reform agenda,current account
    Date: 2019–06–19
  21. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This paper presents Armenia’s 2019 Article IV Consultation report and request for a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The arrangement is intended to be precautionary. It will provide insurance against external shocks and support the authorities’ efforts to strengthen economic fundamentals and policy frameworks. It will also help effective implementation of structural reforms, particularly relating to governance and improving business climate. Discussions focused on macroeconomic and structural policies to ensure macro and fiscal sustainability, foster higher and more broad-based growth, and strengthen resilience to shocks. Supported by the upgraded fiscal rule, fiscal consolidation remains on track, and public debt has started to decline. Inflation is under control, the financial system remains stable, and pressures on the exchange rate have been limited. The authorities’ efforts are centered on advancing structural reforms to generate higher, more inclusive, and resilient growth; and strong policies to maintain macroeconomic stability.
    Keywords: Banking;Public debt;Foreign exchange;External debt;Credit;ISCR,CR,government,Armenia,debt,reform agenda,government program
    Date: 2019–06–05
  22. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper identifies constraints to economic growth in the Kyrgyz Republic, using the Hausmann-Velasco-Rodrik diagnostic approach. It finds that large infrastructure gaps, weak governance and rule of law, and high cost of finance appear to be the most binding constraints to private investment and growth. Additional critical factors are the quality of education and onerous regulations. There is room to improve both the quality and cost/efficiency of education spending. Although relatively low, labor costs have exceeded productivity growth and there is room to improve labor market efficiency. Despite important investments, the infrastructure gap remains large and the country ranks relatively low on infrastructure quality. Weak governance undermines growth through various channels: investment, human capital, and productivity. Weak institutions increase the cost of doing business and make the appropriation of investment returns less certain, overall reducing investor’s risk appetite to invest. Public debt is on the high side and the composition of spending is tilted toward current spending.
    Keywords: Electricity;Tariffs;Private investment;Energy sector;Consumption;ISCR,CR,cost,firm,Kyrgyzstan,GDP,government
    Date: 2019–07–03
  23. By: Batjargal, Dulamzaya; Doojav, Gan-Ochir
    Abstract: In this paper, we empirically examine the sudden stops in capital flows in Mongolia based on Calvo et al. (2004) approach in the past two decades. We found 5 episodes of sudden stops in capital flows and 5 episodes of sudden stops in domestic credits since 1998. Domestic sudden stops lasted longer than the external sudden stop and, in most cases, external sudden stops are followed by the domestic sudden stops. The common consequences of sudden stops on the economy are reduced investments, slack in credits, economic slowdown, the exchange rate depreciation, decline in reserves, and banking crisis/difficulties.
    Keywords: Sudden stops, Capital flows, Exchange rate volatility, Mongolia
    JEL: F0 F32 F41
    Date: 2020–06
  24. By: Hang T. Banh; Philippe Wingender; Cheikh A. Gueye
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented collapse in global economic activity and trade. The crisis has also highlighted the role played by global value chains (GVC), with countries facing shortages of components vital to everything from health systems to everyday household goods. Despite the vulnerabilities associated with increased interconnectedness, GVCs have also contributed to increasing productivity and long-term growth. We explore empirically the impact of GVC participation on productivity in Estonia using firm-level data from 2000 to 2016. We find that higher GVC participation at the industry level significantly boosts productivity at both the industry and the firm level. Frontier firms, large firms, and exporting firms also benefit more from GVC participation than non-frontier firms, small firms, and non-exporting firms. We also find that GVC participation of downstream industries has a negative correlation with productivity. Frontier firms and large firms benefit more from GVC participation of upstream industries, while non-frontier firms and small firms benefit more from GVC participation of downstream industries. Our results suggest that policies designed to promote participation in GVCs are important to raise aggregate productivity and potential growth in Estonia.
    Keywords: Global value chains;Productivity;Exports;Industrial productivity;Labor productivity;WP,GVC participation,production function,export firm
    Date: 2020–07–03

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.