nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒01‒18
twenty-six papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Analysis of the transformation of the Russian banking system By Golubev, Artem (Голубев, Артем); Rodionov, Aleksandr (Родионов, Александр); Ryabov, Oleg (Рябов, Олег)
  2. Russian Federation; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  3. Fertility in Russia: A Re-examination Using Microdata By KUMO, Kazuhiro
  4. Globalization and Female Economic Participation in MINT and BRICS countries By Tolulope T. Osinubi; Simplice A. Asongu
  5. ロシアにおける出生率 : マイクロデータによる再検討 By 雲, 和広
  6. Population Aging, Low Fertility and Social Security in Russia By Kumo, Kazuhiro
  7. Republic of Latvia; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  8. Republic of Moldova; Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, Completion of the Inflation Consultation, and Request for Extension of the Arrangements and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova By International Monetary Fund
  10. Fiscal DSGE Model for Latvia By Patrick Grüning; Ginters Buss
  11. Рождаемость в России: Повторное исследование с использованием данных на микроуровне By Кумо, Кадзухиро
  12. Russia Economic Report, No. 42, December 2019 By World Bank Group
  13. Republic of Moldova; Technical Assistance Report-Financial Soundness Indicators Mission By International Monetary Fund
  14. Mongolia; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  15. Household Finance and Consumption Survey 2017 in Latvia By Ludmila Fadejeva; Anete Migale; Mikelis Zondaks
  16. South Caucasus - Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia By World Bank
  17. Republic of Latvia; 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  18. Russian Federation; 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  19. Republic of Armenia; Third Review under the Stand-By Arrangement and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director for the Republic of Armenia By International Monetary Fund
  20. Digital technology adoption, productivity gains in adopting firms and sectoral spill-overs: Firm-level evidence from Estonia By Natia Mosiashvili; Jon Pareliussen
  21. Republic of Azerbaijan; 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Azerbaijan By International Monetary Fund
  22. Regional development in Lithuania: A tale of two economies By Hansjörg Blöchliger; Roland Tusz
  23. Seizing the productive potential of digital change in Estonia By Damien Azzopardi; Patrick Lenain; Margit Molnar; Natia Mosiashvili; Jon Pareliussen
  24. Estimation of a Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Kazakhstan By Erlan Konebayev
  25. Старение населения, низкая рождаемость и соц иальная защита в России By Кумо, Кадзухиро
  26. Uzbekistan Public Expenditure Review By Ivailo V. Izvorski; Eskender Trushin; Alex Appiah-Koranteng; Aristomene Varoudakis; Roumeen Islam; Maksudjon Safarov; David Lord; Mitsunori Motohashi; Ahya Ihsan; Sergiy Zorya; Ian Hawkesworth; Ferry Philipsen; Sebastian James; Elvira Anadolu; Janssen Teixeira; Kenan Karakulah

  1. By: Golubev, Artem (Голубев, Артем) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, North-West Institute of Management); Rodionov, Aleksandr (Родионов, Александр) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, North-West Institute of Management); Ryabov, Oleg (Рябов, Олег) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, North-West Institute of Management)
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the development of the modern Russian banking system in the conditions of the trend of digital transformation. The aim of the work was to analyze the rehabilitation policy of the Central Bank in the field of banking sector regulation. The working hypothesis was that the reorganization of the financial system leads to an increase in monopolistic trends in the banking sector, while solving the key problems of the Russian banking system: a more objective reflection of problem assets in the balance of the banking system is achieved; the economic role of the “schematic” capital formation of the Russian banking system is declining, with the simultaneous growth of state ownership in the Russian banking system; a business model based on private business lending to its owners becomes inefficient. The paper conducts a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the development of the modern Russian banking system. A critical model of the activity of the Central Bank has been proposed, which allows a system analysis of the development of the Russian banking system at the transformation stage. The study clearly showed that monopolization of the banking sector leads to a decrease in the riskiness of the market strategy of individual banks, however, there is an increase in the probability of systemic shocks of the banking system as a whole.
    Keywords: Digital transformation, Russian banking system
    Date: 2020–11
  2. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper focuses on the potential to improve government efficiency and reduce opportunities for corruption in Russia by further improving fiscal transparency. The analysis presented here is in the context of the 2018 Framework for Enhanced IMF Engagement in Governance, which supports more systematic, candid, and even-handed engagement with member countries on this issue. The cross-country evidence presented confirms that fiscal transparency is broadly and robustly correlated with better outcomes. Improved outcomes include lower financing costs, better efficiency of public investment and revenue collection, and improved corruption perceptions. The IMF’s fiscal transparency evaluations provide an alternative to the Open Budget Survey. In order to investigate the possibility of omitted variables, data presents result from panel regressions on the impact of fiscal transparency on corruption perceptions. Although regressions analysis can mitigate the risk of omitted variables, it leaves the issue of causality unresolved. Fully disentangling all the causal links among corruption, institutions, and economic development may not be feasible.
    Keywords: Fiscal transparency;Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE);Budget planning and preparation;Corruption;Fiscal risks;ISCR,CR,Russia,country,evaluation,FTE rating
    Date: 2019–08–02
  3. By: KUMO, Kazuhiro
    Abstract: This paper employs microdata of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMSHSE) to discuss the impact on childbirth probability in Russia, which, following a continuous decline in the birth rate throughout the 1990s, began to increase in the 2000s, and rose thereafter almost continuously, of economic factors such as household income and female wages and subjective well-being such as life satisfaction and health condition. The following results were obtained: Higher household incomes serve to encourage childbirth, while female wages are seen to act to curtail childbirth, and when indicators such as life satisfaction and health condition are high, the likelihood of childbirth is increased significantly. Most previous research concerning determinants of the birth rate in Russia has shown that household income has no effect at all, but the findings in this paper suggest that this may have been due to the special circumstances that existed at the beginning of the economic transformation period in the 1990s.
    Date: 2020–11
  4. By: Tolulope T. Osinubi (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: This study examines the effect of globalization on female economic participation (FEP) in MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria & Turkey) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa) countries between 2004 and 2018. Four measures of globalization are employed and sourced from KOF globalization index, 2018, while the female labour force participation rate is a proxy for FEP. The empirical evidence is based on Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimators. The findings of the PMG estimator from the Panel ARDL method reveal that political and overall globalization in MINT and BRICS countries have a positive impact on FEP, whereas social globalization exerts a negative impact on FEP in the long-run. It is observed that economic globalization has no long-run effect on FEP. Contrarily, all the measures of globalization posit no short-run effect on FEP in the short-run. This supports the argument that globalization has no immediate effect on FEP. Thus, it is recommended that both MINT and BRICS countries should find a way of improving the process of globalization generally to empower women to be involved in economic activities. This study complements the extant literature by focusing on how globalization dynamics influence FEP in the MINT and BRICS countries.
    Keywords: Globalization; female; gender; labour force participation; MINT and BRICS countries
    JEL: E60 F40 F59 D60
    Date: 2020–08
  5. By: 雲, 和広
    Abstract: 本稿は1990 年代の一貫した出生率の低下から,転じて2000 年代にはほぼ一貫してその上昇を見せるようになったロシアの出産確率に対して,家計所得並びに女性の賃金という経済要因と,そして生活への満足度並びに健康状態という主観的厚生とが与える影響について,1994 年から2018 年迄に亘るロシア長期モニタリング調査(Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, RLMS-HSE)の個票を用いて論じた.その結果,より高い家計所得は出産を促す一方で女性の賃金は出産を控える方向に働くことが示され,また生活への満足度や健康状態の指標が高い事が出産の可能性を有意に高めるという結果が得られた.ロシアの出生率規定要因に関する多くの先行研究では家計所得が如何なる効果も与えないという結果を示していたが,それは1990 年代の体制転換初期に特有の現象であった可能性が示唆された.
    Date: 2020–09
  6. By: Kumo, Kazuhiro
    Date: 2020–10
  7. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper analyses the implications of global value chains (GVC) participation for Latvia’s competitiveness and exposure to risks. Using a structural model, it assesses Latvia’s competitiveness through different real effective exchange rate (REER) measures and examines the main factors behind differences in the measures. Based on this analysis, the paper suggests policy options to strengthen Latvia’s competitiveness. The paper also estimates the impact of an appreciation of the GVC related REER measure on value added export growth and real GDP growth, and finds sizable effects, suggesting that a rapid labor market tightening could lead to erosion in competitiveness and reduction in growth. Finally, trade tension induced tariff hikes may have significant cost for Latvia, especially in terms of value added produced in the country. Trade tension induced tariff hikes are likely to have moderate costs for Latvia in terms of value added produced in the country. In this regard, policies aimed at enhancing product sophistication or quality and export market diversification could mitigate Latvia’s exposure to trade shocks in GVCs.
    Keywords: Productivity;Banking;Total factor productivity;Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT);Real effective exchange rates;ISCR,CR,firm,zombie firm
    Date: 2019–08–07
  8. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This paper discusses Republic of Moldova’s Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, Completion of the Inflation Consultation, and Request for Extension of the Arrangements and Rephasing of Access. The Moldovan authorities have taken decisive corrective measures to bring the Fund supported program back on track and to achieve its objectives of ensuring macroeconomic stability and advancing reforms. Going forward, it is critical that the authorities continue to pursue prudent policies and structural reforms aimed at strengthening the financial sector, maintaining fiscal sustainability, and creating space for social and infrastructure spending. Policies remain focused on cleansing the financial sector, ensuring growth friendly fiscal policy, and enhancing transparency in the energy sector. The authorities are committed to completing the rehabilitation of the banking system, addressing vulnerabilities in the non-bank sector, promoting predictable energy tariff setting, and maintaining fiscal sustainability to preserve space for social and infrastructure spending.
    Keywords: Public debt;External debt;Banking;Debt sustainability analysis;Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt;ISCR,CR,EFF arrangement,government,energy tariff policy,Executive Board discussion
    Date: 2019–09–25
  9. By: Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University)
    Abstract: In order to exercise effectively the right to a fair trial in Ukraine, in addition to institutional changes, systematic changes in the procedural legislation of Ukraine were made during 2017-2018. Thus, amendments to the Commercial Procedural Code of Ukraine, the Civil Procedure Code of Ukraine, the Code of Administrative Procedure of Ukraine (Law of Ukraine "On Amendments to the Commercial Procedural Code of Ukraine, the Civil Procedure Code of Ukraine, the Code of Administrative Procedure of Ukraine and Other Legal Acts" of October 3, 2017 № 142147-VIII) helps to overcome procedural problems that previously hindered effective judicial protection in Ukraine, in particular: - insufficient level of unity and consistency of law enforcement practice; - imperfection, and in some cases - the lack of effective procedural tools to protect the rights and interests of persons appealing to the court; - unjustified formal and informal restrictions in the use of certain means of proof, etc. One of the current trends in the procedural law in Ukraine is the functioning of the legal expert institute. The participation in the case of legal expert known as "amicus curiae", born in the XVII century in Britain is an achievement of the Anglo-Saxon legal system. Its borrowing by the national legal system is the result of convergence, the precedent law system and the Romano-Germanic legal family, a trend that has emerged over the past two decades. The need to involve this person is caused by the same circumstances as the involvement of experts from other fields of science and technology. Namely, the need to obtain special knowledge, which the court due to its professional orientation does not have. The involvement of legal experts may be considered questionable in the light of a judge's professional experience. At the same time, it is not accidental that it is necessary to resolve one or another particular legal case, taking into account the developed theoretical approaches to the application of legal norms that may have certain conflicts with each other in the regulation of disputed legal relations. Therefore, their activities are not aimed at establishing evidence, but are in the nature of a consultative explanation of the mechanism of law enforcement in resolving the case. In determining the procedural status of legal expert, its normative inconsistency with regard to the procedural outcome of his/her activity should be emphasized. According to Article 70, legal expert is a party to the proceedings. The procedural result of his/her activity, based on the normative structure of the procedural legislation of Ukraine, is legal expert opinion. However, among other participants in the trial, the status of which is enshrined in Chapter 4 of the Commercial Procedural Code of Ukraine, there is no this procedural figure. His/her legal status seems uncertain. A reasonable question arises either (1) legal expert submits an opinion whose procedural significance is not defined by law, or (2) legal expert's opinion is submitted by a person who does not have the relevant procedural status or (3) anyway, the expert's opinion is the result of the procedural activities of such a participant in the proceedings as legal expert. There is no doubt that the logic of the legislator is not to create artificial phenomenological problems in the application of this legal construction, so it is obvious that the hermeneutic discrepancy is the result of imperfect legislative techniques. If Article 70 of the Commercial Procedural Code of Ukraine determines the legal status of legal expert, the provisions of Article 108 of the Code enshrine the legal aspects of his/her procedural activities. So it is a holistic legal structure that determines the participant in the trial and the subject of his/her professional activity in it. The mechanism of procedural participation of this person is not less contradictory. Is the court's decision to admit to the case a basis for preparing legal expert opinion and his/her subsequent involvement by the court (part 1 of Article 70 of the Commercial Procedure Code of Ukraine) or the relevant actions of the court are made after the court opinion (Part 1 of Article 108 of the Commercial Procedural Code of Ukraine)? Whether legal expert is limited to the application of analogy of statute, analogy of law and content of foreign law in accordance with their official or generally accepted interpretation, practice in the application, doctrine in the relevant foreign country or his/her procedural activities extend to an unlimited range of aspects of law enforcement (Part 1 of Article 108 procedural code of Ukraine)? The result of legal expert's procedural activity is legal expert opinion - new or significantly improved law enforcement decisions obtained during research, which can be introduced into the law enforcement practice of the court in the administration of justice during the proceedings. There is no doubt that the subject of expert activity is limited to a range of issues related to the conflicting use of legal rule.
    Keywords: procedure law,litigation,procedural code
    Date: 2020–09–25
  10. By: Patrick Grüning (Bank of Lithuania & Vilnius University); Ginters Buss (Latvijas Banka)
    Abstract: We develop a fiscal dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for policy simulation and scenario analysis purposes tailored to Latvia, a small open economy in a monetary union. The fiscal sector elements comprise government investment, government consumption, government transfers that are asymmetrically directed to both optimizing and hand-to-mouth households, cyclical unemployment benefits, foreign ownership of government debt, import content in public consumption and investment, and fiscal rules for each fiscal instrument. The model features a search-and-matching labour market friction with pro-cyclical labour costs, a financial accelerator mechanism, and import content in final goods. We estimate the model using Latvian data, study the new channels in the model, and provide a comprehensive analysis on the macroeconomic effects of the fiscal elements. A particular finding is that having foreign ownership of government debt generally breaks the Ricardian equivalence paradigm.
    Keywords: Small open economy, Fiscal policy, Fiscal rules, Bayesian estimation
    JEL: E0 E2 E3 F4 H2 H3 H6
    Date: 2020–12–14
  11. By: Кумо, Кадзухиро
    Abstract: В данной статье используются данные микроуровня Российского Мониторинга экономического положения и здоровья населения (РМЭЗ – НИУ ВШЭ) для рассмотрения влияния таких экономических факторов, как доход домохозяйства, зарплата женщин, факторов субъективного благополучия, таких как удовлетворенность жизнью и состояние здоровья, на вероятность рождения детей в России, которое сопровождалось длительным снижением на протяжении 1990-ых годов, в 2000-ых начавшее стабильно увеличиваться, выросшее затем до исходных значений. Были получены следующие результаты: более высокие доходы домохозяйства способствуют деторождению, в то время как заработная оплата труда женщин сокращает рождаемость; и, когда, удовлетворенность жизнью и состояние здоровья на высоком уровне, вероятность рождения детей значительно увеличивается. Большинство предыдущих исследований детерминантов рождаемости в России выявили, что доход не имеет никакого эффекта на рождаемость, но результаты, полученные в этой статье, предполагают, что это могло быть связано с особыми обстоятельствами начала экономической трансформации в 1990-ых годах.
    Date: 2020–12
  12. By: World Bank Group
    Keywords: International Economics and Trade - Export Competitiveness International Economics and Trade - Trade Policy Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Employment and Shared Growth Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets
    Date: 2019–12
  13. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Assistance Report on the Republic of Moldova provides details of IMF mission to review available source data for deposit takers and other sectors including other financial corporations (OFCs); and to review the current financial soundness indicators (FSI) compiled by the National Bank of Moldova with a view to ensure methodological consistency of the FSI compilation with the IMF’s FSI Compilation Guide 2006. The mission found some deviations from the FSI Guide in key indicators currently compiled based on the International Financial Reporting Standards and Basel III principles as well as national supervisory standards. Some methodological deviations include the measurement of capital. In order to support progress in the above work areas, the mission recommended a detailed action plan with several priority recommendations. It is recommended to expand the coverage of the OFCs sector to include the non-bank credit organizations (microfinance institutions and leasing companies) in collaboration and coordination with the National Commission for Financial Markets.
    Keywords: Financial soundness indicators;Financial statements;Commercial banks;Personal income;Banking;ISCR,CR,FSI Guide,balance sheet capital,compilation Guide,FSI compilation Guide,metadata template
    Date: 2019–09–04
  14. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper aims to take stock of key challenges and propose recommendations on how to address them. Mongolia has taken important steps to address these challenges, but more should be done to tackle remaining gaps and ensure effective enforcement. Improving governance is a crucial step for Mongolia to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. In order to substantially reduce corruption, a stronger anti-corruption framework should be accompanied by governance reforms across a range of state functions. On rule of law, the Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) place Mongolia above peers in Asia but below regional averages, indicating room for improvement. Although Mongolia has developed a legal framework since the transition to a market economy, observers point out that there are often loopholes and unintended consequences. Weak revenue administration can undermine fiscal sustainability while uneven enforcement of tax rules can damage the investment climate. State-owned enterprises would benefit from better governance, particularly given their central role in output and potential for creating fiscal liabilities.
    Keywords: Corruption;Public financial management (PFM);Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT);Budget planning and preparation;Fiscal risks;ISCR,CR,governance,BOM.,independence,financing,resource
    Date: 2019–09–17
  15. By: Ludmila Fadejeva (Bank of Latvia); Anete Migale (Bank of Latvia); Mikelis Zondaks (Bank of Latvia)
    Abstract: This paper presents Latvia's results from the third wave of the Eurosystem's Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) conducted in 2017. The paper focuses on the wealth components of the household balance sheet – real and financial assets, liabilities, as well as income and consumption. The HFCS questionnaire includes an extensive list of quantitative and qualitative questions; therefore, our paper presents changes in the household balance sheet taking into account both numeric and self-assessment aspects. The results are compared to the HFCS 2014 results in Latvia and the HFCS 2014 and the HFCS 2017 results in the euro area.
    Keywords: household finance and consumption survey, Latvia, assets, liabilities, net wealth, financial vulnerability, income, consumption
    JEL: D14 D31 E21
    Date: 2020–12–31
  16. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Agriculture - Agricultural Sector Economics Agriculture - Forestry Management Environment - Forests and Forestry
    Date: 2020–01
  17. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Republic of Latvia highlights that the economy continued to expand rapidly in 2018, as growth surprised with a strong construction-driven upswing. Fiscal and current account deficits are at manageable levels, as is the public debt. The financial system remains stable, despite a significant balance sheet restructuring of banks servicing foreign clients. The growth outlook is favourable; however, risks weigh on the downside due to a less supportive external environment. The financial system remains stable despite a significant balance sheet restructuring of banks servicing foreign clients. Banks remains well capitalized and liquid, with capital levels about 40 percent higher than the euro area average and average liquidity coverage four times the regulatory minimum. Higher productivity and investment growth are needed to offset the impact of Latvia’s exceptionally unfavorable demographic trends and achieve robust long-term growth and rapid income convergence.
    Keywords: Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT);Public debt;External debt;Labor markets;Credit;ISCR,CR,debt,lat,firm,World Bank-International Monetary Fund mission,Latvia,SDR
    Date: 2019–08–07
  18. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Russian Federation discusses that growth is projected at 1.2 percent in 2019, reflecting a weak first quarter estimate, lower oil prices and the impact of the higher value-added tax rate on private consumption. At the same time, gross domestic product growth should be supported by an increase in public sector spending in the context of the national projects announced in 2018. Inflation has begun to fall and is expected to return to the 4 percent target by early 2020. The medium-term growth outlook remains modest. Public infrastructure spending under the national projects together with increase labor supply due to pension reform could have a positive effect on the growth rate of potential output. However, absent deeper structural reforms, long-run growth is projected to settle around 1.8 percent. It is recommended that it is imperative to enhance competition by facilitating entry/exit and reforming public procurement.
    Keywords: Expenditure;Correspondent banking;Oil prices;Inflation;Banking;ISCR,CR,inflation expectation,IMF staff estimate,growth outlook,market,holding
    Date: 2019–08–02
  19. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Armenia’s economy has been hit hard by twin shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic (now in its second wave), and the recent military hostilities involving the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict zone. Reflecting these shocks, growth is expected at -7¼ percent this year, with the fiscal deficit and debt rising considerably. Nonetheless, the authorities have responded promptly with healthcare and anti-crisis measures to limit the pandemic’s impact while protecting vulnerable groups and safeguarding macroeconomic stability.
    Date: 2020–12–16
  20. By: Natia Mosiashvili; Jon Pareliussen
    Abstract: With a newly constructed firm-level dataset combining various survey- and registry data from Statistics Estonia, this paper sheds new light on the labour productivity premium from adopting digital technologies and boosting digital skill use. The productivity premium is decomposed into a direct effect benefitting the firms actually increasing their digital intensity, and an indirect effect of belonging to a sector with high digital intensity. The firm-level productivity premium of being an adopting firm is consistently positive and sizeable across different digital technologies and measures of skill intensity. The evidence also suggests positive spill-over effects in manufacturing sectors and sectors with a high routine task content and thus a high automation potential.
    Keywords: Digitalisation, productivity, skills, training
    JEL: D24 E22 J24 M53 O33
    Date: 2020–12–16
  21. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Azerbaijan highlights that the economy is continuing to recover from a banking crisis and recession. Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to reach 2.7 percent in 2019 on strong hydrocarbon production and robust domestic demand, benefitting from new spending measures. Gradual and growth-friendly fiscal consolidation is needed to strengthen intergenerational and precautionary buffers while mitigating the adverse impact on the economy. Consolidation could rely on prioritizing and improving the efficiency of spending, rationalizing tax policy, and improving revenue administration. Reducing administrative burden for businesses, encouraging competition, and strengthening governance and transparency would reduce the cost of doing business, foster entrepreneurship, and attract foreign capital. Prioritizing investment for healthcare and education, improving its efficiency, and better targeting of social protection would help nurture human capital and improve productivity. Addressing governance weaknesses is essential to reduce vulnerabilities to corruption. More integrated policies, along with better data availability, would support decision making and credibility, and attract investment.
    Keywords: External sector statistics;Banking;Fiscal rules;Government finance statistics;Revenue administration;ISCR,CR,government,food price inflation,price,broad money
    Date: 2019–09–18
  22. By: Hansjörg Blöchliger; Roland Tusz
    Abstract: Regional differences in GDP per capita, productivity, employment and poverty in Lithuania are among the largest in the OECD, and they have increased over the last decade. The country still recovers from the legacy of the Soviet planning system which aimed at balanced geographical distribution of industrial activity and left many unviable firms and jobs particularly in rural areas. Unemployment is high in many regions, while mobility of excess labour towards economically stronger areas remains insufficient. Some regions feature "surplus infrastructure", while others lack investment. This paper looks at potential reasons for persisting disparities and assesses recent policy initiatives to reduce them. Stark gaps in education outcomes between rural and urban areas should be addressed, mainly by reorganising the municipal school network and by fostering firm-based learning, i.e. apprenticeships. The digital infrastructure is weak in rural regions and should be strengthened to allow access to high-quality jobs in all parts of the country, including through teleworking. Housing supply in economically strong areas should be increased, while urban sprawl should be avoided. Finally, municipal governments should be given more fiscal power, while the planned functional regions should help foster inter-municipal coordination.
    Keywords: education, fiscal decentralisation, labour mobility, Lithuania, regional development, regional infrastructure, regional productivity
    JEL: D24 H70 I24 J24 J61 O31 J65
    Date: 2020–12–22
  23. By: Damien Azzopardi; Patrick Lenain; Margit Molnar; Natia Mosiashvili; Jon Pareliussen
    Abstract: Technologies such as cloud computing, software to automate supplier- and customer relations, online platforms and artificial intelligence seem to offer a vast potential to boost productivity and living standards. However, aggregate productivity growth has declined sharply across the OECD over the past decades. Estonia is no exception, though it is well placed to gain from digital technology diffusion, with strong digital foundations, including advanced and secure physical and digital infrastructure and world-leading e-government services. Turning this potential into a productivity boost necessitates speeding up digital take-up also outside of the ICT sector and fostering the complementarities between digital technologies, skills and policies. Skills are high in general, and the supply of ICT specialists is picking up. There is still potential to improve digital user skills, and notably to put skills to better use by improving management skills and practices. Business-friendly regulations in general and pioneering attempts in some areas will likely spur the adoption of digital technologies. However, insolvencies are too slow and costly, command-and-control regulations relatively frequent and public ownership in network industries is high. Strengthening collaboration between industry associations, labour unions and industry clusters within technology investments, internationalisation, skill supply and management practices could help the country better realise complementarities between technologies, skills and policies, and thereby tap deeper into the productivity potential offered by digital technologies.
    Keywords: automation, Digitalisation, productivity, skills
    JEL: D24 D47 E22 J24 O33 O38
    Date: 2020–12–16
  24. By: Erlan Konebayev (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)
    Abstract: This paper adapts the DSGE (dynamic stochastic general equilibrium) model of Medina and Soto (2007) in the context of Kazakhstani economy, and fully estimates it using Bayesian methods. The main goal of the paper is to contribute to the scarce macroeconomic modeling literature on Kazakhstan. Overall, we find that the oil price shock is key in explaining the variance of virtually all the variables of interest - in particular, it accounts for more than 40% of variance in real exchange rate over the long-term horizon. Furthermore, while the oil price and commodity (oil) production shocks contributed positively to the country's GDP growth in real terms before the Great Recession, their effects have been primarily negative during the two major economic crises of 2007 and 2015, and the fiscal policy has had mixed success in counteracting them.
    Keywords: DSGE; Bayesian analysis; small open economy
    JEL: C11 E30 E32 E37
    Date: 2020–09
  25. By: Кумо, Кадзухиро
    Date: 2020–09
  26. By: Ivailo V. Izvorski; Eskender Trushin; Alex Appiah-Koranteng; Aristomene Varoudakis; Roumeen Islam; Maksudjon Safarov; David Lord; Mitsunori Motohashi; Ahya Ihsan; Sergiy Zorya; Ian Hawkesworth; Ferry Philipsen; Sebastian James; Elvira Anadolu; Janssen Teixeira; Kenan Karakulah
    Keywords: Public Sector Development - Public Sector Expenditure Policy Public Sector Development - State Owned Enterprise Reform Public Sector Development - Public Financial Management Public Sector Development - Public Investment Management Public Sector Development - Public Sector Management and Reform
    Date: 2019–12

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