nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒01‒11
24 papers chosen by

  1. Russian Federation; Fiscal Transparency Evaluation Update By International Monetary Fund
  2. Agricultural transition in Russia, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe: Ten lessons for Venezuela By Brooks, Karen
  3. Инфраструктура и экономический рост. «Бюджетный маневр» в России By Dmitriy, Skrypnik
  4. Specialization of Russia in international trade: development in the changing international environment By Andrey Pushkarev; Natalia Davidson; Oleg Mariev; Nikita Luft
  5. Child Penalty in Russia: Evidence from an Event Study By Lebedinski, Lara; Perugini, Cristiano; Vladisavljević, Marko
  6. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Budget Formulation and Fiscal Risk Management By International Monetary Fund
  7. Оценка и анализ эффективности применения динамической факторной модели для оценивания и прогнозирования ВВП на примере Казахстан // Evaluation and analysis of the effectiveness of the use of a dynamic factor model for estimating and forecasting GDP on the example of Kazakhstan By Орлов Константин
  8. Republic of Georgia; Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and an Extension of the Arrangement and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia By International Monetary Fund
  9. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment By International Monetary Fund
  10. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-Strengthening Public Financial Management By International Monetary Fund
  11. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-State-Owned Enterprises–Fiscal Risk Management By International Monetary Fund
  12. Macroprudential Policy and the Inward Transmission of Monetary Policy: the case of Chile, Mexico, and Russia By Georgia Bush; Tomás Gómez; Alejandro Jara; David Moreno; Konstantin Styrin; Yulia Ushakova
  13. Особенности проведения сезонной корректировки индекса потребительских цен для Казахстана // Features of the seasonal adjustment of the consumer price index for Kazakhstan By Ержан Ислам; Орлов Константин
  14. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-Medium-Term Budget Framework and Fiscal Risk Statement By International Monetary Fund
  15. Эмпирическая оценка влияния инвестиций на экономический рост в Казахстане // An empirical assessment of the impact of investment on economic growth in Kazakhstan By Самат Мөлдір
  16. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-Fiscal Decentralization and Legal Framework for Fiscal Risk Management and Medium-term Budgeting By International Monetary Fund
  17. Bond Risk Premia in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Brazil, China, Mexico, and Russia By Iania, Leonardo; Lyrio, Marco; Moura, Rubens
  18. Fiscal DSGE Model for Latvia By Ginters Buss; Patrick Gruning
  19. Методические аспекты оценки элементов структурных изменений в технологическом развитии промышленности регионов Казахстана By Myrzakhmet, Marat
  20. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-Enhancing the Medium-Term Budget Framework and Preparing Expenditure Baseline By International Monetary Fund
  21. Система прогнозирования и оценивания параметров бюджетной политики Казахстана на основе международного опыта// The system for forecasting and evaluating the parameters of the budgetary policy of Kazakhstan based on international experience By Жузбаев Адам
  23. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-Distributed Profit Tax; Voluntary Disclosure of Assets; and BEPs Implementation By International Monetary Fund
  24. Production Networks and War By Vasily Korovkin; Alexey Makarin

  1. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Assistance paper on the Russian Federation provides a summary of the changes to Russia’s fiscal transparency practices since 2014 and makes recommendations for further improvements. Russia has made important progress in enhancing the coverage and detail of fiscal reporting since 2014, but assurances of the quality and integrity of fiscal reporting remain incomplete. Reforms to the statistical treatment of taxes and nonfinancial assets have improved the comparability of budgets, statistics, and accounts but transparent reconciliations between the three are still not provided. It is imperative to make Rosstat fully independent of government and produce and publish metadata explaining in an accessible way how the main fiscal indicators or datasets are compiled. The ministry of finance has initiated an annual assessment of the quality of loans and will begin writing-down the value of doubtful debts from 2020. Separate detailed reconciliations of changes to revenue and expenditure are included in the documentation accompanying the annual budget.
    Keywords: Budget planning and preparation;Fiscal risks;Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts;Oil prices;Fiscal reporting;ISCR,CR,government,Russia,Duma,MoF Directive,Federal budget expenditure
    Date: 2019–10–30
  2. By: Brooks, Karen
    Abstract: Thirty years have elapsed since the fall of communist governments in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. The collapse of political structures took with it regimes of highly administered management of agri-food systems. The shift from state management to markets has been generally known as the agricultural transition. The term is most frequently used in reference to the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, but key features of a move from dominant state intervention to greater reliance on markets characterized reforms in China after 1978, Vietnam in 1986 and thereafter, and many countries in Africa south of the Sahara during the years of structural adjustment in the 1990s. The policy reforms that constitute an agricultural transition are intrinsically difficult and made even more so when undertaken under conditions of crisis-induced chaos. Lessons from countries that have undergone the process might be of use, either as guidance or cautionary notes, to leaders and civil society groups in countries such as Venezuela that may be embarking on a transition or swept into one by circumstance. The paragraphs below attempt to summarize lessons from the early transition in Russia, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe in the 1990s.
    Keywords: RUSSIAN FEDERATION, EASTERN EUROPE, EUROPE, CENTRAL ASIA, ASIA, VENEZUELA, SOUTH AMERICA, AMERICAS, agriculture, political systems, prices, agrifood systems, consumers, food security, privatization, public investment, agricultural transition, political change, consumer expectations
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Dmitriy, Skrypnik
    Abstract: The paper examines the world experience in stimulating economic development based on the creation of infrastructure. The effects on economic growth are found to be moderate. Building infrastructure boosts economic growth in the poorest countries, where infrastructure shortages are critical. For developing countries, the creation of infrastructure is of secondary importance, and infrastructure has a significant impact when it is part of development projects implemented by industrial policy measures based on a system of catch-up development institutions. For developed countries, infrastructure can lag behind market sector dynamics and investment can again have significant impact. For the Russian economy, where the stock and quality of infrastructural and human capital are at medium levels, it is not necessary to expect accelerated growth from the implementation of national projects, the bulk of which goes to the creation of infrastructure. This conclusion is confirmed by numerical experiments based on a computable general economic equilibrium model constructed in this work for Russia. At the same time, it is found that the increase in the VAT rate itself, which is part of the budget maneuver, leads to a decrease in output in most industries, including the manufacturing sector. In the scenario of a budget maneuver - with an increase in the VAT rate and an increase in government spending - the negative effects of the increase in VAT are intensified: there is stronger growth in the public sector, construction and raw materials, which ensures economic growth, but at the same time increases the cost of factors and leads to a deepening decline in other sectors as a result, the economy experiences a double negative impact. The public sector begins to reproduce the mechanism of the Dutch disease.
    Keywords: infrastructure, government spending, fiscal policy, economic growth, computable general equilibrium models, structural vector autoregression models
    JEL: C68 E16 E17 E62 H25 H50 H54 O23 O43
    Date: 2020–11–15
  4. By: Andrey Pushkarev (Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg); Natalia Davidson (Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg); Oleg Mariev (Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg); Nikita Luft (Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg)
    Abstract: International economic relations are important for the countries? economic growth, especially in the modern world of global value chains and rapid technological development. Russia is known for its comparative advantage in natural resources and for its intentions to diversify the economy. Indeed, specialization in natural resources is not associated with sustainable economic growth. We analyze Russia?s specialization in trade over the period 2009-2018 including the year 2014 when economic and financial sanctions were introduced. We follow the dynamics of Russia?s comparative advantages in different categories of goods in trade with all world countries, BRICS countries and Eurasian Economic Union over these years. Our aim is to shed more light on the current specialization of Russia in order to understand the possibilities of diversifying the economy. We analyze short term consequences of difficulties in international relations that Russia faces, and provide an insight into the long run development of trade. We conclude that Russia currently has a prevailing comparative advantage in material-intensive industries and needs to develop innovations in order to diversify its economy and obtain a comparative advantage in the other categories of goods, including high-tech sector. The results can be useful for development of economic policy.
    Keywords: Comparative advantage, Balassa index, Lafay index, specialization, international trade, export, Russian regions
    JEL: F14 F50 F43
  5. By: Lebedinski, Lara (Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade); Perugini, Cristiano (University of Perugia); Vladisavljević, Marko (Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade)
    Abstract: Despite years of women's progress toward equality, gender disparities in the labour market persist, and parenthood has been identified as one of its key drivers. In this paper we investigate the child penalty in Russia by using longitudinal data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) and the methodological framework of event studies. Our findings show that five years after child birth women suffer an earnings penalty, while the same effect is not observed for men. The child penalty for women stems from lower employment after birth. In contrast to similar studies on Western European countries and the US, we do not find child penalties in terms of working hours or hourly wage rates. We further find that mothers' employment penalty is strongly driven by household characteristics and by their spouses' beliefs, while their own beliefs and background play no role.
    Keywords: child penalty, Russia, event study, RLMS
    JEL: J16 J13 J31
    Date: 2020–12
  6. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Assistance Paper on Ukraine discusses that implementing strategic planning and a medium-term budget framework (MTBF) is a core component of Ukraine’s Public Financial Management (PFM) reform strategy. A pilot MTBF conducted in 2017 formed the basis for amendments to the Budget Code in December 2018, which firmly establish a MTBF as the basis for budget preparation. The amendments also establish a legal basis for related reforms, including regular spending reviews and monitoring and managing risks to public finances. The report also highlights that a central margin should also be established to accommodate budget volatility and meet the costs of genuinely urgent, unavoidable and unforeseeable expenditure pressures that may arise. In order to reinforce spending discipline, the margin should be tightly controlled, centrally managed and transparently reported. Strategic planning should also be improved to provide a stronger basis for integrated policymaking, strategizing, planning and budgeting. Creating a robust strategic planning system would assist in this regard.
    Keywords: Budget planning and preparation;Fiscal risks;Expenditure;Medium-term budget frameworks;Public expenditure review;ISCR,CR,expenditure ceiling,State budget,budget volatility,KSU budget submission,KSU ceiling
    Date: 2019–12–06
  7. By: Орлов Константин (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: В настоящей работе была проведена оценка эффективности динамических факторных моделей в прогнозировании ВВП Казахстана для текущего и будущих кварталов, доказана целесообразность применения данных моделей, а также получено факторное разложение динамики ВВП. Факторы были поделены на группы и включали в себя показатели реального и внешнего, финансового, денежного, ценового блоков. // In this paper, the effectiveness of dynamic factor models in forecasting Kazakhstan's GDP for the current and future quarters was assessed, the expediency of using these models was proved, and a factor decomposition of the dynamics of GDP was obtained. The factors were divided into groups and included indicators of real and external, financial, monetary, and price blocks.
    Keywords: GDP, short-term forecasts, dynamic factor models, principal component analysis, Kalman filter, ВВП, краткосрочные прогнозы, динамические факторные модели, метод главных компонент, фильтр Кальмана
    JEL: C52 C53 C55 C82 E17
    Date: 2019
  8. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This paper discusses Republic of Georgia’s Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Requests for Waivers of NonObservance of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and an Extension of the Arrangement and Rephasing of Access. Georgia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth remains on track to reach 4.6 percent despite the ban on direct flights from Russia. Strong revenue growth has more than offset higher-than-envisaged capital spending, and the 2019 fiscal deficit is likely to be lower than projected at the Fourth Review. The 2020 budget implies a neutral fiscal stance; spending on education and social benefits is expected to rise, while overall current primary spending would remain unchanged. Medium-term fiscal plans are anchored at keeping net debt below 45 percent of GDP. The central bank should maintain a tightening bias until inflation expectations are firmly anchored. The planned emergency liquidity assistance and bank resolution framework will strengthen financial stability. Decisive implementation of structural reforms is critical to support higher and more inclusive growth. Advancing education reform, adopting the insolvency framework, developing the local capital market, and judiciary reform will further improve the business environment and support private investment.
    Keywords: External debt;Loans;Public debt;Credit;Foreign exchange;ISCR,CR,IMF staff country,monetary policy,deficit
    Date: 2019–12–18
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Assistance report on Ukraine highlights that Ukraine currently has an efficiency gap of around 32 percent, which ranks it below average amongst emerging market countries and other comparators. Persistent under-investment, the currently high stock of debt, and ongoing institutional weaknesses, coupled with effects of the conflict in the East could see this gap continuing to grow, absent concerted efforts to reverse recent trends. The report also analyses that government policy on fiscal decentralization, articulated in the government’s 2014 coalition agreement, has the potential to significantly impact on the allocation of public investment. The institutional framework is weak in all areas. It is in terms of effectiveness of the institutions that the Ukrainian public investment management system really falls short. Twelve institutions are ranked as ineffective while a further two are moderately effective, with only one institution scoring a high rank in this category. While the picture looks bleak, some recent initiatives may bring about significant improvements.
    Keywords: Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP);Public investment spending;Budget planning and preparation;Capital spending;Capital budget;ISCR,CR,government,investment,budget,country
    Date: 2019–12–04
  10. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Assistance report on Ukraine discusses a more sustainable fiscal consolidation. The Ukrainian authorities have recently adopted a broad Public Financial Management System Reform Strategy, paving the way to decisive action in critical areas including medium-term budgeting, analysis and management of fiscal risks, and public investment management. Fiscal policy in Ukraine has been hampered by the lack of a medium-term orientation for the State Budget. Medium-term macroeconomic forecasts are regularly produced, but these are not well integrated with budget planning, which remains mostly incremental and annual in scope. Recent reform initiatives have prioritized the development of a medium-term budget framework to the forefront of the reform agenda; however, additional steps are required for it to be fully implemented. Ukraine has undertaken a range of reforms in public investment management, designed to tackle some of its weaker institutions. Nevertheless, the strategic planning process remains unfit for purpose and does not facilitate prioritization of capital investment projects.
    Keywords: Fiscal risks;Budget planning and preparation;Medium-term budget frameworks;Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP);Public financial management (PFM);ISCR,CR,local government,assurance processes,General government debt,PFM strategy,IMF government finance statistics
    Date: 2019–12–05
  11. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Assistance Paper on Ukraine highlights that good progress has been made in improving the disclosure and management of fiscal risks since the embedding of fiscal risks in the Budget Code in December 2018. The mission refined the financial model to analyze risks relating to Naftogaz that had been developed on the October 2018 mission. Despite updating the assumptions, the modelling still shows that the anticipated loss of transit gas revenue will have a significant negative impact on the Ukraine budget from January 2020. Appropriate mitigating action could ameliorate this negative impact, but there will still be a significant reduction in the inflows to the budget from Naftogaz. The next steps recommended by the mission include that Naftogaz, Ukrainian Railways and Energoatom models should be discussed with the State-owned Enterprises (SOE) and refined and that coverage should be expanded to include other major SOEs.
    Keywords: Fiscal risks;Budget planning and preparation;Tariffs;Capital spending;Currencies;ISCR,CR,Energoatom,Naftogaz,result,cash deficit,cost
    Date: 2019–12–06
  12. By: Georgia Bush; Tomás Gómez; Alejandro Jara; David Moreno; Konstantin Styrin; Yulia Ushakova
    Abstract: This paper studies whether domestic macroprudential policy may attenuate the inward transmission of monetary-policy shocks from the U.S. to domestic banks' lending growth in three emergingmarket economies -Chile, Mexico, and Russia. Identification relies on banks' heterogeneous exposure to the prudential policies and the fact that foreign monetary policy shocks are exogenous from the perspective of these economies. After analyzing the effects of the aggregate domestic prudential policy stance, we focus on specific prudential policies targeting mortgage and consumer loans, as well as foreign-currency deposits. Although our overall results are mixed, we find evidence that the strength of international monetary policy spillovers varies depending on the stance of the domestic macroprudential policy. In particular, a tighter reserve requirement stance over foreigncurrency deposits in Chile dampens the effect of an international monetary policy shock on domestic local-currency lending, but reinforces that on foreign-currency lending, whereas in Russia, it dampens the effect on both local currency and foreign currency lending, although to different degrees. Prudential policies targeting the asset side of banks' balance sheets, such as mortgage loans or consumer credit, are found to amplify international monetary policy spillovers in some cases and attenuate in others, depending on the country context.
    Date: 2020–12
  13. By: Ержан Ислам (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Орлов Константин (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: В настоящей работе описан подход к осуществлению сезонной корректировки индекса потребительских цен для Казахстана, и на основании ее результатов приведены примеры построения вспомогательных индексов, учитывающих фундаментальное поведение цен и очищенных от влияния временных факторов. // This paper describes an approach to the implementation of seasonal adjustment of the consumer price index for Kazakhstan, and based on its results, examples of constructing auxiliary indices that take into account the fundamental behavior of prices and are cleared of the influence of temporary factors are given.
    Keywords: inflation, seasonal adjustment, core inflation, trending inflation, инфляция, сезонная корректировка, базовая инфляция, трендовая инфляция
    JEL: C19 E31
    Date: 2019
  14. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Assistance paper on Ukraine discusses medium-term budget framework (MTBF) and fiscal risk statement. In order to strengthen the medium-term orientation of the budget, the authorities have committed to implement a full-fledged MTBF as part of their Public Financial Management Reform Strategy (2017–21). The ability of the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to enforce compliance with ceilings during the annual budget will be critical to the success of the pilot exercise. The MoF will need to develop a robust report explaining the ceilings for cabinet discussion and for presentation to the legislature. The authorities have been taking steps to improve their understanding and disclosure of fiscal risks and have made significant progress with the inclusion of a summary fiscal risk statement in the draft Budget Declaration. The institutional structures to support fiscal risk analyses and disclosure are also yet to be established.
    Keywords: Budget planning and preparation;Fiscal risks;Expenditure;Medium-term budget frameworks;Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts;ISCR,CR,budget declaration,expenditure ceiling,challenge function,build budget challenge capacity,KSU ceiling
    Date: 2019–11–15
  15. By: Самат Мөлдір (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: Целью данной работы является оценка вклада внутренних и иностранных инвестиций в экономический рост страны, а также анализ взаимного влияния иностранных и внутренних инвестиций друг на друга. Для такой оценки использовался широко используемый в мире метод VAR, а именно панельная векторная авторегрессия, которая позволяет объединить данные по отраслям экономики с временным рядом. // The purpose of this work is to assess the contribution of domestic and foreign investment to the country's economic growth, as well as to analyze the mutual influence of foreign and domestic investment on each other. For such an assessment, the VAR method, widely used in the world, was used, namely, panel vector autoregression, which allows combining data on sectors of the economy with a time series.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, investment in fixed assets, elasticity, vector autoregression model, impulse responses, прямые иностранные инвестиции, инвестиции в основной капитал, эластичность, модель векторной авторегрессии, импульсные отклики
    JEL: C22 C33 C51 E22
    Date: 2019
  16. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Assistance paper on Ukraine reviews the results of the 2015 fiscal decentralization reform and the amendments to the Budget Code for implementation of certain Public Financial Management reforms. Several design issues are slowing the process of voluntary amalgamation of territorial communities and will lead to a proliferation of small units, with low potential for financial self-sufficiency. Achieving both an overall balance and a vertical fiscal balance, whereby own revenues cover basic expenditure responsibilities and dependence on State grants and subventions is minimized, would require a combination of changes to the revenue-sharing arrangements and expenditure assignments. There is no structured arrangement for ensuring a collaborative and coordinated approach in pursuing broad fiscal objectives and ensuring fiscal sustainability at all levels of government. The authorities should take steps to ensure an active and open dialogue between the different levels on the conduct of fiscal policy.
    Keywords: Budget planning and preparation;Expenditure;Fiscal risks;Legal support in revenue administration;Capital spending;ISCR,CR,State treasury,capital expenditure,state government,State budget,State investment grant
    Date: 2019–11–25
  17. By: Iania, Leonardo; Lyrio, Marco; Moura, Rubens
    Keywords: Risk Premia, Term Structure of Interest Rates, International Finance, Emerging Markets
    JEL: E43 E44 G15
    Date: 2020–01–01
  18. By: Ginters Buss (Latvijas Banka); Patrick Gruning (CEFER, Lietuvos Bankas)
    Abstract: We develop a fiscal dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for policy simulation and scenario analysis purposes tailored to Latvia, a small open economy in a monetary union. The fiscal sector elements comprise government investment, government consumption, government transfers that are asymmetrically directed to both optimizing and hand-to-mouth households, cyclical unemployment benefits, foreign ownership of government debt, import content in public consumption and investment, and fiscal rules for each fiscal instrument. The model features a search-and-matching labour market friction with pro-cyclical labour costs, a financial accelerator mechanism, and import content in final goods. We estimate the model using Latvian data, study the new channels in the model, and provide a comprehensive analysis on the macroeconomic effects of the fiscal elements. A particular finding is that having foreign ownership of government debt generally breaks the Ricardian equivalence paradigm.
    Keywords: small open economy, fiscal policy, fiscal rules, Bayesian estimation
    JEL: E0 E2 E3 F4 H2 H3 H6
    Date: 2020–12–15
  19. By: Myrzakhmet, Marat
    Abstract: The article considers a regional approach to the study of structural change, which might be more sensitive. The analysis of structural relationships in the regions of Kazakhstan for 2016-2018 and the corresponding typology of regional systems were performed, and the changes that have occurred were identified. At the beginning of the study period, the regional system seems excessively ordered, characterized by a fairly high level of regional differences. At the end of the period, a change in the qualitative characteristics of the system is observed. The identified changes can determine the direction of the further diagnostics.
    Keywords: Structural changes; structural shifts; structural diagnostics; regional development forecasting
    JEL: L1 L16 O14 O25 P25 Q32 R11 R38 R58
    Date: 2020–12–27
  20. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Assistance paper on Ukraine focuses on enhancing the medium-term budget framework and preparing expenditure baselines. While the inclusion of a contingency provision in the budget is prudent, it will be important that it is well communicated and strongly defended. There is a risk that the provision will be a general policy reserve, which can undermine budget discipline and disincentivize medium-term planning. The Budget Declaration submitted to the Cabinet is a significant step forward and contains many sound elements of a medium-term budget document. The Ministry of Finance should continue to expand its content in future years to better explain the basis of fiscal plans and improve transparency. Key enhancements include providing greater explanation on the main drivers of the medium-term macroeconomic and fiscal projections, reporting on compliance with fiscal rules, and further expanding the fiscal risk statement. Credible and robust expenditure baselines will take time to develop and the Ministry of Finance will need to play a central role.
    Keywords: Budget planning and preparation;Expenditure;Pension spending;Public expenditure review;Fiscal risks;ISCR,CR,expenditure baseline,baseline estimate,budget declaration,expenditure ceiling,government policy
    Date: 2019–11–25
  21. By: Жузбаев Адам (National Bank of Kazakhstan)
    Abstract: Был изучен и применен к Казахстану международный опыт прогнозирования показателей фискальной политики и определения направленности фискальной политики. Построение прогнозов налоговых поступлений осуществлялось на основе трех методов: эффективная налоговая ставка; подход, основанный на эластичности изменения налоговых поступлений к налоговой базе; уравнения связки на основе множественной регрессии. // International experience of forecasting indicators and determining the direction of fiscal policy was studied and applied to Kazakhstan. Tax revenue forecasts were made on the basis of three methods: effective tax rate; approach based on the elasticity of tax change receipts to the tax base; bridge equations based on multiple regression.
    Keywords: Automatic stabilizers, GDP deflator, GDP, tax revenues, operational balance, budget expenditures, fiscal impulse, fiscal policy, Buoyancy, ETR, OLS, RMSE, автоматические стабилизаторы, дефлятор ВВП, ВВП, налоговые поступления, операционное сальдо, затраты бюджета, фискальный импульс, фискальная политика
    JEL: C51 C32 H68
    Date: 2019
  22. By: Joanna Wolszczak-Derlacz (Gdansk University of Technology, Gdansk, Poland)
    Abstract: This study examines the potential effects of China’s “One-Belt One-Road” initiative (OBOR) on trade flows and global value chain connections. The empirical analysis is based on the augmented gravity model of international trade, which comprises 186 reporters and 199 partners in the period 2000-2018. We also estimate the gravity model for involvement in global value chains (domestic and foreign value added in exports and the value contributed by a partner to a reporter’s exports). OBOR proves to be positively correlated with international trade and global value chains (GVC), while some of the corridors seem to be more beneficial than others (e.g. China-Pakistan, China-Mongolia-Russian Federation, and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar).
    Keywords: One-belt one-road, China, gravity trade models, global value chains
    JEL: F13 F14 C23
    Date: 2020–12
  23. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Technical Assistance report focuses on Ukraine’s distributed profit tax, voluntary disclosure of assets, and Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Work Program implementation. The recommendations largely favor simplifying rules, improving the definition of basic concepts, eliminating potential loopholes, and adhering more closely to international standards in some cases. Thus, for the sake of simplification, the report recommends that Controlled Foreign Corporation rules should apply to the ‘first onshore’ person rather than having to trace them back to the ultimate beneficial owner in Ukraine. Also, it recommends that the proposed interest deduction limitation should eliminate the carry-forward currently permitted, limit deductions to net interest expense and exempt the financial sector from this limitation. Some key definitions can be improved too. The report suggests that if there is an urgent need to promote private investments, the accelerated depreciation tool should be applied for plant and machinery and structures housing them for say another five years.
    Keywords: Personal income;Double taxation;Controlled foreign corporation rules;Foreign assets;Tax law;ISCR,CR,passive income,parent company,tax amnesty,accelerated depreciation,capital gain,CFC income,tax authority
    Date: 2019–11–25
  24. By: Vasily Korovkin; Alexey Makarin
    Abstract: How do severe shocks, such as war, alter the economy? We study how a country's production network is affected by a devastating but localized conflict. We use novel transaction-level data on Ukrainian railway shipments, complemented by administrative data on firms, to document the effect of war on firms and interfirm trade. First, we document substantial propagation effects-trade declines even between firms outside the conflict areas if one of them had traded with the conflict areas before the war. Our estimates suggest that the magnitude of the second-degree effect of conflict is one-third of the first-degree effect. Second, we study firm-level consequences of a change in production network structure. Firms that, for exogenous reasons, become more central in the production network after the start of the conflict receive a lasting boost to their revenues and a temporary one to their profits. A temporary increase in markups suggests a rise in market power as one of the mechanisms. Finally, in a production networks model, we separate the effects of exogenous firm removal and subsequent endogenous network adjustment on firm revenue distribution. At the median of the distribution, network adjustment compensates for 72% of network destruction.
    Date: 2020–11

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