nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2021‒01‒04
sixteen papers chosen by

  2. Adding a fiscal rule into a DSGE model: How much does it change the forecasts? By Mikhail Andreyev
  5. The births, lives, and deaths of corporations in late Imperial Russia By Gregg, Amanda; Nafziger, Steven
  6. History of and Aftermath from the Withdrawal of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty By Berliner, Aaron; Hecla, Jake; Bondin, Michael; Mullen, Austin; Amundson, Kelsey; Camacena, Elena Osorio; Droster, Alex; Ermakova, Dinara; Nagel, Tyler Scott; Nappi, Nicole L.
  7. Foreign Investments Hit by COVID-19 Pandemic. FDI in Central, East and Southeast Europe By Amat Adarov; Gabor Hunya
  8. NUMERALS IN KINA RUTUL By Timofey Mukhin
  9. Georgia; Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Augmentation of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia By International Monetary Fund
  10. Ukraine; Request for Stand-by Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine By International Monetary Fund
  11. Republic of Moldova; Technical Assistance Report—Government Finance Statistics Mission (October 2-8, 2019) By International Monetary Fund
  12. Republic of Moldova; Staff Report for the 2020 Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova By International Monetary Fund
  14. How Do The Characteristics Of The Environment Influence University Efficiency? Evidence From A Conditional Efficiency Approach By Tommaso Agasisti; Aleksei Egorov; Pavel Serebrennikov
  15. Health and Distributional Impacts of a Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages in Kazakhstan By Alan Fuchs; Kate Mandeville; Ana Cristina Alonso-Soria
  16. Comparative Panel File: Household Panel Surveys from Seven Countries. Manual for CPF v.1.0 CPF By Turek, Konrad; Kalmijn, Matthijs; Leopold, Thomas

  1. By: Nikita I. Lychakov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Dmitrii L. Saprykin (Institute for the History of Science and Technology, Russian Academy of Sciences); Nadia Vanteeva (University of Ontario Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: Using data from official manufacturing censuses, we compare labour productivity in Great Britain and the Russian Empire around 1908. We find that Russia’s labour productivity was at 81.9 percent of the U.K. level. Russia’s productivity was on a par with France’s and significantly superior to Italy’s. We also find that the majority of Russian industries underperformed British ones. However, the industries that had been established or modernised during the state-induced industrialisation policies of the 1890s, such as the Southern metallurgy, performed on a par with their British counterparts. Russia’s alcohol, tobacco, and petrochemical sectors outperformed their British equivalents. Our findings suggest a revision of the view that, at the turn of the 20th century, Russian manufacturing was economically underdeveloped.
    Keywords: labour productivity, Great Britain, Imperial Russia
    JEL: D24 L60 N63
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Mikhail Andreyev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: This article analyses an expansion of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model presented in Kreptsev, Seleznev (2017) and used by the Bank of Russia to forecast macroeconomic variables. The model was supplemented with an extended description of the fiscal sector, which formalises the fiscal rule in effect in Russia and which is similar to the one used in Medina, Soto (2007). The model was estimated on the basis of Russian data. Based on impulse response functions, we analyse the stabilising effect of the fiscal rule on macroeconomic variables. It was found that the fiscal rule leads to a decrease in output volatility, a slight decrease in exchange rate volatility and a stronger disinflationary effect in response to a positive oil price shock. The forecast errors were used to analyse whether it is possible to apply the formalisation of the fiscal rule in order to improve the forecast of macroeconomic variables within the DSGE model. We found that the fiscal rule does not improve the quality of the forecasts.
    Keywords: DSGE model, fiscal rule, reserve fund, credit cycle, commodity prices, financial frictions, monetary policy
    JEL: D58 E47 E62 E63
    Date: 2020–11
  3. By: Andrei A. Ilin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ksenia M. Belik (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Grant-based funding became one of the crucial innovations in the Russian academia of the 1990s. It has been studied from quantitative and institutional perspectives while our paper focuses primarily on oral histories of grants that shed light on their subjective meaning. Interviews show that some Russian academics remember their first experiences of applying for various programs, competition and peer review as important part of their ego-narratives. These narratives portray ambitious, independent, and free-minded scholarly persona that chimes with the virtues promoted in the academic community back in the 1990s, when research grants and scholarships were introduced. Apart of their practical benefits and prestige, grants helped some scientists and scholars to comprehend themselves and the changing landscape of post-Soviet academia.
    Keywords: oral history, grants, history of post-soviet universities, history of post-soviet academia, history of the 90-s, academic persona.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Alexandra Koroleva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Viktoria Kobzeva (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper investigates interviews from the archive of Poletayev Institute for Theoretical and Historical Studies in the Humanities (IGITI) which were conducted in 2010s with Russian scholars and professors. The data from these interviews is used to study transnational academic mobility experience in the post-Soviet years (2000s–2010s) by young Russian scholars – the respondents of the interviews who entered higher education institutions in the post-Soviet period. The paper examines how they described academic mobility experience, its impact on their idea of university, concept of excellence, and the significance of academic mobility itself
    Keywords: academic mobility, ‘brain drain’, international academia, young Russian scholars, academic excellence.
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Gregg, Amanda; Nafziger, Steven
    Abstract: Enterprise creation, destruction, and evolution support the transition to modern economic growth, yet these processes are poorly understood in industrializing contexts. We investigate Imperial Russia’s industrial development at the firm-level by examining entry, exit, and persistence of corporations. Relying on newly developed balance sheet panel data from every active Russian corporation (N > 2500) between 1899 and 1914, we examine the characteristics of entering and exiting corporations, how new entrants evolved, and the impact of founder identity on subsequent outcomes. Russian corporations operated flexibly and competitively, conditional on overcoming distortionary institutional barriers to entry that slowed the emergence of these leading firms in the Imperial economy.
    JEL: L11 N13 N63 O16
    Date: 2020–12–14
  6. By: Berliner, Aaron; Hecla, Jake; Bondin, Michael; Mullen, Austin; Amundson, Kelsey; Camacena, Elena Osorio; Droster, Alex; Ermakova, Dinara; Nagel, Tyler Scott; Nappi, Nicole L.
    Abstract: On February 1, 2019, the United States and Russia withdrew from the three-decades old Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty. Events precipitating the withdrawal were allegations by both the United States and Russia of a variety of treaty violations. Until that point, the treaty had been a centerpiece of arms control and a key agreement of the global security architecture. The absence of such a pillar has the potential destabilize the status quo of arms control, creating significant uncertainty in global nuclear stability and security. In this paper, we present a historical review as overture to an analysis on the impacts of this development on force structure. This analysis examines the changes in U.S., Russian, and Chinese nuclear forces which may occur as a result of the treaty's demise. The article concludes with commentary on potential actions to preserve stability in a post-INF world.
    Date: 2020–12–16
  7. By: Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: FDI inflows to Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE – 23 economies) declined by 58% in the first half of 2020, against the same period of 2019. This drop is more dramatic than the global plunge in FDI (49%, estimated by UNCTAD), but is smaller than the setback faced by the developed economies (75%). The CESEE country groups have been unevenly affected the decline has amounted to 35% in the EU-CEE, 8% in the Western Balkans, and about 40% in both the group of the CIS plus Ukraine and in Turkey. Russia recorded negative FDI inflows in the first half of 2020, following unusually high amounts a year before. In EU-CEE, FDI had already started to decline in 2019, putting an end to a three-year growth period. The capital pledged in greenfield investment projects in CESEE fell by 23% – less than the global decline of 34% in the first half of 2020. The quarter-to-quarter decline in 2020 was sharpest in the second quarter and was followed by a levelling-off in the third. In annual comparison, the capital commitments were 41% lower in the first three quarters of 2020 than in the previous year. Manufacturing was more vulnerable to the recession than other sectors – in terms of both FDI flows and greenfield investments. Participation in global value chains has suffered from demand and supply shocks, and from disruption to production, trade and supply networks. This may yet provide an impulse to shorten value chains, relocate and ‘back-shore’ cross-border production-sharing activities in the future, which may depress FDI. Technological change may also bring some redistribution of locations for manufacturing production and tradable services in the medium and longer term. However, European value chains may soon recover from the initial shocks, and international investors are under no pressure to undertake costly relocations. Re-shoring will be slow if Asia remains the growth engine of the world economy. The automotive industry will face transformation as it adapts to new technologies, but will keep most of its established locations in the region. Most of CESEE may gain from the near-shoring of production by European companies, as they move away from more distant locations. The wiiw FDI Database is available online This online access with a modern query tool supports easy search and download of data. The wiiw FDI Database contains the full set of FDI data with time series starting form 1990 as far as available. Access to wiiw FDI Database
    Keywords: foreign direct investment, balance of payments, COVID-19 crisis, re-shoring, back-shoring, new EU member states, Central Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, Austria, China, Turkey, CIS, Russia, Ukraine
    JEL: C82 F21 O57 P23
    Date: 2020–12
  8. By: Timofey Mukhin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper describes numerals in Rutul (Lezgic, East Caucasian). The data presented here were collected during fieldwork in the village of Kina (Rutul district, Republic of Dagestan, Russia) in 2016 to 2019.
    Keywords: numerals; Rutul; Lezgic; East Caucasian
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2020
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This paper discusses Georgia’s Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Augmentation of Access. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has hit the Georgian economy hard. A drop in external demand and tourism has widened the current account deficit, led to a depreciation of the exchange rate, and a substantial decline in economic activity. The authorities have acted rapidly by introducing sweeping containment measures and targeted support to households and to most affected sectors. The National Bank of Georgia has appropriately maintained a moderately tight monetary policy stance, while allowing exchange rate to remain flexible. Monetary policy decisions should be based on close monitoring of inflationary expectations. Advancing structural reforms would help sustain medium-term growth potential and achieve a faster recovery after the pandemic. Adopting the indexation rule for public pension would contribute to sustain the income of pensioners. Completing the banking resolution framework and implementing the insolvency framework would help support the recovery. The augmentation of access under the Extended Fund Facility arrangement should support the authorities’ policies to address the COVID-19 shock and help meet the urgent balance-of payments need.
    Keywords: External debt;Public debt;Loans;Foreign exchange;Banking;ISCR,CR,IMF financial support,IMF Deputy managing director,financing,IMF Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund
    Date: 2020–05–05
  10. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This paper presents Ukraine’s Request for Stand-By Arrangement. The 2020 budget is expected to be hit hard, with a sharp decline in revenues and large emergency spending needs to address the crisis. This has created large balance of payments and fiscal financing needs. Sound fiscal and monetary policies since the 2014–2015 crisis have resulted in a sharp reduction in Ukraine’s external and internal imbalances. Public debt was put on a downward path, inflation has declined, and international reserves have recovered. The new Stand-By Arrangement will provide an anchor for the authorities’ efforts to address the impact of the crisis, while ensuring macroeconomic stability and safeguarding achievements to date. Together with support from the World Bank and the European Union, it will help address large financing needs. The program will focus on safeguarding medium-term fiscal sustainability, preserving central bank independence and the flexible exchange rate, and enhancing financial stability while recovering the costs from bank resolutions. Concerted reform efforts aimed at tackling corruption and strengthening governance will be critical to ensure macroeconomic stability and achieve sustainable and inclusive growth.
    Keywords: Banking;Public debt;COVID-19 ;Exchange rates;External debt;ISCR,CR,government,financing,fiscal policy,policy,government policies response
    Date: 2020–06–11
  11. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: In response to a request from the European Department, a Public-Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted in Chisinau during October 2–8, 2019. The mission funded by the Data for Decisions (D4D) multi-donor trust fund and followed up on a D4D Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) workshop held in Vienna, Austria during July 2019, where participants from Moldova identified data gaps with current compilation of debt statistics. The mission primarily worked with the Ministry of Finance (MOF) Public Debt Department (PDD), but also had discussions with the Budget and Treasury Department. Outside the MOF, the mission had meetings with the Public Property Agency (PPA), the Municipality of Chisinau and the National Bank of Moldova (NBM). Finally, the mission also held a joint meeting with representatives of a separate IMF TA Mission on sectoral accounts with Treasury and attended the concluding meeting of that mission with the NBM.
    Keywords: Public debt;Financial statements;Securities;Business enterprises;Public sector;ISCR,CR,St debt,NBM certificate,debt statistics,debt measure,debt report,headline debt,Lt debt
    Date: 2020–08–04
  12. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This paper discusses the Republic of Moldova’s IMF staff report for Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument. The IMF support will help finance the health and macroeconomic stabilization measures, catalyze donor support, and shore up confidence in Moldova. While downside risks have intensified, public debt remains sustainable with low risk of distress. Beyond the immediate response, the authorities have reinforced their commitment to engage in a governance-focused arrangement with the IMF in the coming months. The IMF stands ready to support Moldova in addressing its immediate and medium-term policy challenges. The authorities’ policies aim at mitigating the economic and social impact of the crisis and supporting the recovery, while maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability. They have ramped-up spending to respond to urgent healthcare needs, provided temporary tax relief and subsidized credit schemes to protect employment and businesses, and strengthened social assistance and unemployment programs. The National Bank of Moldova is ensuring orderly exchange rate adjustment and preventing liquidity distress. Financial policies continue to focus on prudent restructuring of banks’ credit portfolios subject to maintaining loan classification and provisioning standards.
    Keywords: International reserves;Credit;COVID-19 ;Banking;Service exports;ISCR,CR,financing,IMF support,pandemic,emergency financing request,support
    Date: 2020–04–22
  13. By: Jaanika Meriküll; Maryna Tverdostup
    Abstract: This paper looks at the gender wage gap throughout the transition from communism to capitalism and throughout fast economic convergence. The case of Estonia is used, and the labour force survey micro data is employed from 1989 to 2020. The communist regimes were characterized by highly regulated wage determination and the high educational attainment and labour market participation of women. Despite a formally egalitarian regime, the raw gender wage gap was as large as 41% in 1989. The large gender wage gap under communist rule diminished quickly during the transition to a capitalism, mainly due to the erosion of distortions in the labour market, such as low returns to education. The paper has two main messages, first, the position of women in the labour market has improved over the last three decades. The mechanism behind their gains is similar to those in other formerly centrally planned economies, the education of women is even better now, they are employed in better occupations and their returns to education are higher. Second, the gender wage gap was large already three decades ago and the unexplained part has been resistant to decline. This points to strong inertia in the gender wage gap and to the importance of longer-term factors in it. The decline in the gap is related to the overall decline in wage inequality, minimum wages have also contributed to this process. While gender attitudes have become much more egalitarian, it is difficult to prove their role.
    Keywords: gender gap, pension, gender equality, gender attitudes
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Tommaso Agasisti (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Aleksei Egorov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Pavel Serebrennikov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper explores the black box behind efficiency measurements in higher education and defines the determinants of university efficiency. Particularly, it investigates how the efficiency of universities is affected by the characteristics of the territory in which they operate. We propose an analysis that combines two perspectives: 1) the resource dependence theory, suggesting that the location of university can determine the amount of resources available to it; 2) institutional isomorphism, according to which the characteristics of other higher education institutions located in the same area may shape the university production function and the efficiency of its operations. In order to test this framework we use the data on Russian universities and non-parametric conditional order-m efficiency estimator with two categories of exogenous variables. The first group includes the social, economic and cultural characteristics of the region where the university is located. The second set includes the characteristics of other higher educationinstitutions located in the same region. Our findings highlight that the managerial efficiency of universities is strongly associated with the characteristics of the environment in which they operate.
    Keywords: Universities, conditional eciency, order-m, DEA, exogenous variables.
    JEL: C44 I23
    Date: 2020
  15. By: Alan Fuchs; Kate Mandeville; Ana Cristina Alonso-Soria
    Keywords: Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention Health, Nutrition and Population - Health and Poverty Health, Nutrition and Population - Nutrition
    Date: 2020–04
  16. By: Turek, Konrad (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute); Kalmijn, Matthijs; Leopold, Thomas
    Abstract: The Comparative Panel File (CPF) harmonises the world's largest and longest-running household panel surveys from seven countries: Australia (HILDA), Germany (SOEP), Great Britain (BHPS and UKHLS), South Korea (KLIPS), Russia (RLMS), Switzerland (SHP), and the United States (PSID). The project aims to support the social science community in the analysis of comparative life course data. The CPF is not a data product but an open-source code that integrates individual and household panel data from all seven surveys into a harmonised three-level data structure. In this manual, we present the design and content of the CPF, explain the logic of the project, workflow and technical details. We also describe the CPF's open-science platform. More at:
    Date: 2020–11–30

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