nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2020‒12‒14
eleven papers chosen by

  1. Эндогенная классификация домохозяйств в регионах России By Nartikoev, Alan; Peresetsky, Anatoly
  2. The macroeconomic effects of migrants’ remittances in Moldova: a stock–flow consistent model By Edwin Le Héron; Nicolas Yol
  3. Кризис институтов политической конкуренции, интернет и коллаборативная демократия By Polterovich, Victor
  4. Wealth inequality and CO2 emissions in emerging economies: The case of BRICS By Goodness C. Aye
  5. Prediction of Socio-Economic Indicators of the Megapolis Development on the Basis of the Intellectual Forecasting Information System “SHM Horizon” By Kitova, Olga; Dyakonova, Ludmila; Savinova, Victoria
  6. Returns to Education in the Russian Federation By Harry Patrinos; Suhas Parandekar; Ekaterina Melianova; Artem Volgin
  7. Skills and Returns to Education in the Russian Federation By World Bank
  8. Russia Economic Report, No. 43, July 2020 By World Bank
  9. It's complicated: A Non-parametric Test of Preference Stability between Singles and Couples By Stefan Hubner
  10. Assessment of possible leakage effects of imple-menting EU COM proposals for the EU Biodiversity Strategy on forestry and forests in non-EU coun-tries By Dieter, Matthias; Weimar, Holger; Iost, Susanne; Englert, Hermann; Fischer, Richard; Günter, Sven; Morland, Christian; Roering, Hans-Walter; Schier, Franziska; Seintsch, Björn; Schweinle, Jörg; Zhunusova, Eliza
  11. EU trade in CO2 emissions By Inaki Arto; Jose M. Rueda-Cantuche; M. Victoria Roman; Ignacio Cazcarro; Antonio F. Amores; Erik Dietzenbacher

  1. By: Nartikoev, Alan; Peresetsky, Anatoly
    Abstract: In order to study the structure of society, sociologists usually distinguish several homogeneous social groups, or classes. The most common division consists of three groups: upper, middle and lower classes. Such a partition is traditionally based on a subjective (exogenous) criteria adopted by a particular re-searcher. In this paper, the distribution of households in Russian federal districts is modeled as a mixture of three lognormal distributions. The mixing proportions (probabilities) of the mixture components and the corresponding distribution parameters are modeled as functions of the individual characteristics of households. The result is an endogenous decomposition of household sample into three clusters (lower, middle, upper). This classification allows to analyze the difference between regions and the patterns of intergroup dynamics in the period 2014–2018. The approach used in this work demonstrated great flexi-bility in analyzing the distribution of income, the dynamics of this distribution over time, as well as a migration between relatively homogeneous clusters. The use of mixture density function with endogenously determined probabilities allows for precise detection of the effects of the income heterogeneity determinants within each cluster.
    Keywords: mixture models; Russia; income distribution; middle class
    JEL: C14 C15 C46 D31 I32 R20
    Date: 2020–09–11
  2. By: Edwin Le Héron; Nicolas Yol (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: Migrants’ remittances are an essential source of income in many developing countries. In this article, we build a post-Keynesian stock–flow consistent model adapted to Moldova, one of the top recipients of remittances. In addition to increasing household consumption, migrants’ transfers have strong effects on economic growth in Moldova. However, remittances are very sensitive to the economic conditions in migrants’ destination countries, especially since the 2008 global financial crisis. After including remittances in consumption behavior and lenders’ risk, we run simulations to show how shocks in migrants’ destination countries (that is, Europe and Russia) impact the Moldovan economy through fluctuations in remittances. First, the increasing instability of remittances explains a significant portion of the economic volatility experienced by Moldova. Second, the high level of imports implies a weak multiplier effect of remittances, leading to an unsustainable pattern of growth.
    Keywords: Remittances; Moldova; Stock-flow consistent models; Business cycles; Migration; Volatility
    JEL: E12 E32 F22 F24 F43
    Date: 2019–04
  3. By: Polterovich, Victor
    Abstract: The article is devoted to the study of the crisis of modern Western democracy. It is noted that the important causes of the crisis are slowing down of economic growth and deepening inequality in developed countries. It is shown that strong inter-party competition inevitably generates a mechanism of degradation of moral norms in the political sphere and reduction of the political system efficiency. These processes have intensified dramatically as a result of the spread of the Internet. They contributed to the reduction of citizens' participation in elections and at the same time to the "ochlocratization" of the political system. It is shown as well that a number of transformations taking place in the Western countries are aimed at improvement of interaction between the state and society and contribute to crisis overcoming. These include expanding the role of parliamentary committees, increasing the number of parties, large-scale reforms of public sector governance basing on collaboration. In this context, the experience of e-platforms and the possibilities of institutional collaborative platforms are analyzed. The concept of collaborative democracy is proposed, based on the analysis of the trends studied. The mechanism for collaborative democracy should ensure greater choice and broader direct participation of citizens in decision-making, control the costs of political competition and maintain ethical standards, prevent ochlocratization, and improve governance. Contours of this mechanism are outlined. In particular, it should be based on the use of a proportional electoral system of a special type, a system of expert councils and collaborative platforms for public decision-making, as well as on the implementation of decision making rules close to consensus. The significance of these conclusions for Russia is discussed.
    Keywords: trust, ochlocracy, deliberative democracy, proportional electoral system, e-democracy, collaborative platform, consensus
    JEL: B59 D60 D72 D73 K19
    Date: 2020–11–26
  4. By: Goodness C. Aye
    Abstract: As the world battles with the triple problems of social, economic, and environmental challenges, it has become important to focus both policy and research efforts on these. Therefore, this study examines the effect of wealth inequality on CO 2 emissions in five emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The top decile of wealth share was used as a measure of wealth inequality, while CO 2 emissions per capita were used as a measure of CO 2 emissions.
    Keywords: Emissions, Emerging economies, Fixed effects, random effects, wealth inequality
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Kitova, Olga; Dyakonova, Ludmila; Savinova, Victoria
    Abstract: The article describes a system of hybrid models ‘SGM Horizon’ as intellectual forecasting information system. The system of forecasting models includes a set of regression models and an expandable set of intelligent models, including artificial neural networks, decision trees, etc. Regression models include systems of regression equations that describe the behavior of forecast indicators of the development of the Russian economy in the system of national accounts. The functioning of the system of equations is determined by scenario conditions set by expert. For those indicators whose forecasts do not meet the requirements of quality and accuracy, intelligent models based on machine learning are used. Using the ‘SHM Horizon’ tools, predictive calculations were performed for a system of 30 indicators of the social sphere of the City of Moscow using hybrid models, and for8 indicators a significant increase in the quality and accuracy of the forecast was achieved with artificial neural network models. The process of models building requires considerable time, in this regard, the authors see the further development of the system in the application of the multi-criteria ranking method.
    Keywords: Regional economics, Forecasting, Socio-economic indicators, Hybrid models, Machine learning, Neural networks, Decision trees
    JEL: C40 C45
    Date: 2020–07–24
  6. By: Harry Patrinos; Suhas Parandekar; Ekaterina Melianova; Artem Volgin
    Keywords: Education - Tertiary Education Education - Economics of Education Gender - Gender and Education Social Protections and Labor - Labor Markets Social Protections and Labor - Vocational & Technical Education
    Date: 2020–06
  7. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Education - Tertiary Education Education - Economics of Education Education - Education For All Education - Educational Institutions & Facilities Social Protections and Labor - Vocational & Technical Education
    Date: 2020–06
  8. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Education - Tertiary Education Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Economic Growth Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Fiscal & Monetary Policy Poverty Reduction - Employment and Shared Growth
    Date: 2020–07
  9. By: Stefan Hubner
    Abstract: This paper develops a method to use data from singles in a non–parametric collective household setting. We use it to test the controversial assumption of preference stability between singles and couples. Our test allows for unobserved heterogeneity by defining finite-dimensional types of households according to their revealed preference relations. We show how to derive a test statistic by constructing hypothetical matches of heterogeneous individuals into different types of households using tools from stochastic choice theory. We strongly reject the preference–stability hypothesis based on consumption data from the Dutch LISS, the Russian RLMS, and the Spanish ECPF panels.
    Date: 2020–12–02
  10. By: Dieter, Matthias; Weimar, Holger; Iost, Susanne; Englert, Hermann; Fischer, Richard; Günter, Sven; Morland, Christian; Roering, Hans-Walter; Schier, Franziska; Seintsch, Björn; Schweinle, Jörg; Zhunusova, Eliza
    Abstract: Overarching objective of the EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 is recovering biodiversity by strengthening the protection and restoration of nature. Key elements are the creation of protected areas on at least 30% of Europe's land and sea area, including stronger protective measures for forests. However, any implementation of dedicated measures will reduce roundwood production in EU member states. It is to be expected that parts of this reduced roundwood production will be compensated by increasing roundwood production in non-EU countries. There is a fundamental risk of biodiversity losses in non-EU countries accompanying such leakage of roundwood produc-tion. From a global perspective, such biodiversity losses must be opposed to biodiversity gains in EU countries. The presented study provides a first assessment of possible leakage effects and rep-resents the state of work as of September 2020. At first, the presented study provides an estimate of the decline in roundwood production in EU member states as a result of implementing partial or full production restrictions in forests. In a second step, implications of reduced roundwood production within EU-27 on global wood markets are assessed. Finally, leakage of roundwood production to non-EU countries is evaluated using in-dicators related to governance, sustainable forest management, biodiversity, forest condition, de-forestation pressure and socio-economic aspects. In order to estimate the reduction in roundwood production in EU countries firstly three single implementation measures are assessed and then consolidated for Germany: (i) 10 % share of forest area set-aside, (ii) non-utilization of “old-growth forests” and (iii) 30 % share of protected forest areas under Habitats Directive management requirements. As a result, the potential roundwood production in Germany declines on average within the period examined (2018 – 2052) by 23.96 million m³/a to 52.77 million m³/a or to 69 %. In the following calculations, this reduction share is assigned to all EU-27 countries. Modelling international roundwood production leakage using the Global Forests Products Model GFPM projects an overall roundwood production decrease of 42 % in the EU-27 for the year 2050. Increased roundwood production in non-EU countries would compensate for 73 % of the de-creased roundwood production in the EU. The remaining 27 % can be understood as price-induced reduction of wood products consumption. Until 2050 EU-27’s decreased roundwood production would mainly be offset by increased production in the USA. According to the modelling results, 26 % of decreased roundwood production are leaked to the USA. Further leakage occurs to Russia (12 %), Canada (9 %) und Brazil (8 %). Differentiating non-consumption into soft- and hardwood, non-consumption of hardwood is more pronounced (39 %) than non-consumption of softwood (11 %). Consumption of fuelwood declines by 67 % but its production does not shift to non-EU countries. Basically, fuelwood is consumed to a much smaller share, due to increasing prices and the following assumed transition to other energy sources. Only small leakages are calculated for pulp and paper products. Leakages for sawn wood and wood-based panels show comparable rela-tive changes to those modelled for roundwood production. Implementation of the EU biodiversity strategy causes decreasing roundwood production in EU member states and increasing roundwood production in non-EU countries. The expected addi-tional production would be shifted to countries that have a significantly higher proportion of intact forest areas compared to the EU, but already have lost significant amounts of these areas in recent years. The described leakage poses a threat to the remaining intact forest areas in non-EU-countries. Non-EU countries with a modelled roundwood production increase often show smaller biomass stocks and higher shares of already degraded area than EU-27 member states. Either this could indicate a further threat or a potential for promoting afforestation measures to buffer pres-sure on natural forests. Further protection measures in the EU would further increase the discrepancy to protection measures of other countries. In non-EU countries, net deforestation is higher, significantly lower proportions of forest areas are placed under protection and less money is spent on the conserva-tion of biodiversity than in EU countries. The average Red List Index indicates an increased threat of extinction of species for non-EU countries. Also, income disparities are higher in non-EU coun-tries than in EU member states. For particularly poor countries, the shift of roundwood production could mean an opportunity to benefit from potential job creation, but on the other hand there is also the risk of displacement effects for often subsistence-based income groups. Countries with high additional roundwood production and high vulnerability should be primarily focused on in the risk assessment. Immediate risks are further endangerment of already endan-gered species, reduction of intact forest area, increase of degraded land area and increased net deforestation. At a global scale it is expected that positive biodiversity effects in the EU due to additional protection are counteracted by negative effects in non-EU countries. Thus, European policy measures should focus particularly on these countries in order to buffer potential leakage effects by strengthening sustainable forest management and respective governance. The presented report constitutes a pre-study on leakage effect of the EU biodiversity strategy. It uses information and data that is available at this point. However, for a more detailed analysis further data from EU member states and further development of the applied methods are neces-sary.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2020–11–20
  11. By: Inaki Arto (Basque Centre for Climate Change – BC3); Jose M. Rueda-Cantuche (European Commission – JRC); M. Victoria Roman (European Commission – JRC); Ignacio Cazcarro (Basque Centre for Climate Change – BC3); Antonio F. Amores (European Commission – JRC); Erik Dietzenbacher (University of Groningen)
    Abstract: The European Commission identified trade policy as a core component of the European Union's 2020 Strategy. The fast changing global economy, characterised by the dynamic creation of business opportunities and increasingly complex production chains, means that it is now even more important to fully understand how global value chains affect CO2 emissions. Gathering comprehensive, reliable and comparable information on this is crucial to support evidence-based policymaking. Guided by that objective, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) has produced this publication. It aims to be a valuable tool for trade policymakers. The report features a series of indicators to illustrate in detail the EU CO2 emissions dependence on the final demand of each EU Member State, and the CO2 emissions in each Member State depending on the EU final demand. This is done using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), 2016 release, as the main data source. This information has been complemented with data on CO2 emissions from other sources such as the EU Science Hub of the European Commission (Corsatea et al. 2019). Besides, indicators have been also included to account for the inter-dependence between the EU and other world economies. Indicators cover the period 2000 - 2014.The geographical breakdown of the data includes the 28 EU Member States, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Norway, Russia, South Korea, Switzerland, Turkey, Taiwan, the United States of America, and an aggregate “Rest of the World†region. The information presented in this pocketbook is complemented with a software tool for analyses of global value chains, trade, income and employment. This tool enables a more detailed analysis of the different indicators related to global value chains and includes additional data management and visualization options.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions, Trade, European Union
    JEL: F64 C67
    Date: 2020–11

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