|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Maya Lavrinovich (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The paper addresses the problem of interacting of visual and written components for creating of historical narrativity, and its impact on the social practices of the archival employees in the late 18th – early 19th century. The research is focused on the case of Moscow Archive of Foreign College, where a gallery of those who administered Russian foreign affairs had been collected since 1780s. This gallery was juxtaposed by a voluminous chronicle that united the Archive and the College into an indivisible institution and thus emphasized the role of the archival officials in the state affairs. |
| Keywords: | Russia, 18th century, Moscow Archive of the College of the Foreign Affairs, the heads of the Russian foreign policy, history writing, Aleksei Malinovskii |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:191/hum/2020&r=all |
| By: | Dezhina Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The main topic related to science in the previous year was the National Project (NP) “Science†and federal projects implemented under its framework.Considering the speed of budget funds allocation, NP “Science†was one of the most dynamic one among projects of similar status. The National Project “Digital Economy†was on the other side of the spectrum, for which allocation of funds to performers has just started. An interlinking via identical monitoring indicators of NP “Science†and the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation (SSTD) took place making the latter a “living†document.At yearend, a more clear distribution of topics/issues that the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) and the Ministry of Science and Higher Education are focused on, was put in place. The main thing for RAS was the organization of their own activities, that is, clarification of competences, procedure for election of new academy members,organization of expertise of state assignments for all recipient scientific and educational institutions. In addition, RAS was developing a program dedicated to basic scientific research. The Ministry, in turn, was focused on the implementation of federal projects in the pattern of NP "Science", where the major topic could be the establishment of the Research and Educational Centers (hereinafter - REC).Such a focusing is associated with the complexity of the initiative, the need to combine scientific and technological policies of the federal and regional scales. No “breakthroughs†took place in the field of innovation technologies as evidenced by the dynamics of the Russia’s position in various rankings, results of the companies’ survey as well as indicators of the high–tech companies outflow from the country. At the same time, the Government introduced more measures striving to improve the situation, having initiated new target (development of artificial intelligence) and infrastructural projects (technological valleys) |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, R&D, science, technology |
| JEL: | O31 O32 O3 I28 I2 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1061&r=all |
| By: | Bobylev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The oil and gas sector is among the basic ones of the Russian economy and is playing an important role in the income generation for the state budget and Russia’s trade balance. Implementation of the OPE, Russia and a number of other countries agreement on the production cut with a simultaneous global crude oil demand growth in 2019 has resulted in the world crude oil prices stabilization in the range of $60–70 per barrel. In 2019, the volumes of crude oil production peaked for the entire post-Soviet period and the extraction of the natural gas hit an all-time high. Under the effect the tax maneuver in force in the oil industry, the crude oil refining volumes have stabilized and significantly increased the refining depth, production of fuel oil and its exports have contracted. March 2020 revealed a crucial discrepancy between the positions taken by Russia and the OPEC member states regarding the deal parameters for the subsequent period. Hence, there were no new agreements, the current deal was not extended and Saudi Arabia notified about the intention to ramp up production. In the wake of coronavirus pandemic and a plunge of the global oil demand the crude oil prices have collapsed. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, oil and gas sector, oil production, oil prices, oil and gas export |
| JEL: | L71 L72 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1050&r=all |
| By: | Zubov Sergey (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | At 2019-end, Russian banking sector numbered 442 lending institutions. Over the year the number of operational lending institutions decreased by 42 (in 2018 – down by 77). Seven years ago in early 2013 the number of operational institutions exceeded one thousand (1094). Consequently, the Central Bank of Russia consistently has been conducting the bank resolution process. As of January 1, 2020, 373 lending institutions’ profit hit RUB 2,196.4 billion and losses of 69 banks amounted to RUB 159.6 billion. On the whole, the share of loss-making institutions over the year went down from 29 to 16 percent. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, banking sector, profit, capital, corporate loans, retail lending |
| JEL: | E41 E51 G28 G21 G24 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1042&r=all |
| By: | Baeva Marina (RANEPA); Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Russia has been actively participating in the dispute settlement system handled by the WTO. As of the year-end of 2019, Russia had been involved in a total of 96 disputes: in 8 disputes as a complainant, in 9 disputes as a respondent, and in 79 disputes as a third party. In 2019, Russia became a party to 13 new trade disputes in the framework of the WTO: in one as a complainant, and in 12 – in the role of a third party. In 2019, two disputes that Russia was a main party to (DS493 (complainant), DS512 (respondent)) underwent their key stages – Russia won both these disputes over Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, WTO, trade disputes |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1044&r=all |
| By: | Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sternik Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2019, the macroeconomic indicators directly affecting the housing market were the following. The consumer price index stood at 3 percent, households’ income movement which is important for the housing market in the course of the major part of the year (after a plunge in Q1) posted positive. Over 2019 as a whole, the real disposable cash income of the population gained less than 1percent. The RF Central Bank repeatedly reduced its key rate over the course of last year hitting 6.25 percent in December 2019. Nevertheless, borrowers’ activity and the amount of housing mortgage lending (HML) was below that seen last year. According to the Bank of Russia, in 2019 Russia saw a total of 1.27 million extended mortgages to the tune of RUB 2.85 trillion against 1.47 million totaling RUB 3.01 trillion in 2018, in other words the decline came to 13.6 percent in loans-terms and 5.3 percent in volume-terms. The share of mortgage loans originated for shared-equity construction in the total volume of extended loans of all types constituted in 2019 6.6 percent against 7 percent in 2018. That said, the share of mortgages issued for shared-equity construction in the aggregate volume of solely mortgage loans went up from 28.8 to 32.4 percent. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, residential property prices, housing market, housing construction |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1063&r=all |
| By: | Arlashkin Igor (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Barbashova Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Belev Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Deryugin Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sokolov Ilya (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tishchenko Tatiana (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2019, revenues of the budgetary system of Russia according to the fresher data released by the Ministry of Finance of Russia in shares of GDP against the previous year remained flat amounting to 35.8 percent of GDP (Table 7), meanwhile in absolute terms they have increased by RUB 1,860 billion. Solely 39.4 percent of the revenues increment of the enlarged government budget (RUB 732.8 billion) have been secured by the federal budget and 62.4 percent (RUB 1,160.8 billion) by the increment of the consolidated budget of the RF subjects receipts. However, in the overall volume of the revenue part of the enlarged government budget a share of federal and subnational levels budget in 2019 against 2018 has changed insignificantly: a share of the federal budget has contracted from 52.1 to 51.5 percent and a share of the consolidated budget of the RF subjects has gone up from 33.2 to 34.6 percent. Dynamics of oil and gas revenues of the enlarged government budget is negative: contraction of receipts in 2019 in comparison with the previous year constituted 1.1 percentage points of GDP or RUB 770 billion, meanwhile non-oil and gas revenues went up in 2019 to the maximum for the 5-year period level coming to 28.3 percent of GDP up by 1.1 percentage points of GDP against the previous year. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, intergovernmental relations, fiscal policy, budgetary system |
| JEL: | H77 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1039&r=all |
| By: | Balandina Galina (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In the World Bank’s latest “Doing Business – 2020†rating, the Russian Federation is rated again the 99th as regards the “Trading across borders†line, while in the overall rating Russia moves steadily upwards from year to year, having attained the 28th place.2 However, 2019 saw important IT-related changes in customs clearance procedures of Russia’s customs administration. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, customs regulation |
| JEL: | F10 F13 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1058&r=all |
| By: | Thomas F. Remington (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrei A. Yakovlev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Ovchinnikova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Alexander Chasovsky (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Authoritarian leaders rely on regional officials for both political support and the fulfillment of their policy objectives. Central leaders face trade-offs between using institutionalized rules for choosing regional officials such as regular rotation and performance incentives, and building a stable base of personal support from loyalists. This paper analyzes appointments of regional officials in Russia and China before and after 2012. We hypothesize that, as a consequence of the centralization and personalization of state power in both regimes over the past decade, Russia’s system for appointing regional officials has become somewhat more regularized while in China under Xi it has become somewhat less regularized. Our analysis uses a comprehensive original set of biographical data on all top regional officials from 2002 through 2019 in China and from 2000 through 2019 in Russia. We discern clear differences between the pre- and post-2012 period for China and less marked differences for pre- and post-2012 Russia |
| Keywords: | bureaucracy under authoritarian government; regional officials; career mobility; Russia; China |
| JEL: | P21 H83 P27 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:74/ps/2020&r=all |
| By: | Matte Hartog (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Frank Neffke (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | We analyze Ukraine's opportunities to participate in European value chains, using traditional gravity models, combined with tools from Economic Complexity Analysis to study international trade (exports) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This toolbox is shown to be predictive of the growth and entry of new exports to the EU's Single Market, as well as foreign direct investments from the Single Market in Ukraine. We find that Ukraine has suffered from a decline of trade with Russia, which has led not only to a quantitative but also a qualitative deterioration in Ukrainian exports. Connecting to western European value chains is in principle possible, with several opportunities in the automotive, information technology and other sectors. However, such a shift may lead to a spatial restructuring of the Ukrainian economy and a mismatch between the geographical supply of and demand for labor. |
| Keywords: | economic complexity, value chains, foreign direct investment |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:129a&r=all |
| By: | Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | From 2016, statistical data began to be published in the framework of the System of Public Property Management Efficiency Estimates (hereinafter – System of Estimates). It was approved by Decree of the RF Government No 72 dated January 29, 2015, to replace the public sector monitoring data, collected and released by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) since the early 2000s in accordance with RF Government Decree No 1 dated January 4, 1999 (as amended on December 30, 2002). The System of Estimates contains data on the number of federal state unitary enterprises (FSUEs) and joint-stock companies (JSCs) with RF stakes in their capital, which had been previously published, as a rule, in the government privatization programs for the next period (from 2011 – for three-year period, and prior to 2011 – for one-year period). Such data can also be found in the newly adopted forecast plan (program) of federal property privatization (FPP), as well as in the Main Directions of Federal Property Privatization for 2020–2022 approved by RF Government Directive No 3260-r dated December 31, 2019. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, public sector, privatization |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1051&r=all |
| By: | Avdonina Natalia (RANEPA); Avxentyev Nikolay (RANEPA); Grishina Elena (RANEPA); Idrisov Georgy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kaukin Andrey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Klyachko Tatiana (RANEPA); Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kurakova N. (RANEPA); Pleskachev Yuri (RANEPA); Ponomarev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ponomareva Ekaterina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Khasanova Ramilya (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | From the day of issuing of Executive Order No.204 of May 7, 2018 of the President of the Russian Federation “On National Goals and Strategic Objectives of the Development of the Russian Federation in the Period till 2024†(hereinafter, the Executive Order No.204) and till the end of 2018, the main efforts in implementation thereof were aimed at developing national projects (NP) and establishing the project management system and the initial organizational base. It can be stated that the main portion of work on implementation of national projects started from the beginning of 2019. Within the framework of the initial period of 2019, efforts were made to clear some issues and liquidate the information asymmetry in implementing national projects at various organizational levels. Within the framework of the “National Projects – “Implementation†Stage†Forum, which was held on April 4-6, 2019 in the Moscow Region and attended not only by representatives of the government and federal agencies, but also numerous representatives from regions, such an attempt was made. Based on the results of the Forum, the Prime Minister signed a number of instructions[1] aimed at resolving some problems – identified during the work of the Forum – related to the start of implementation of national projects. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, national projects |
| JEL: | P16 P26 P48 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1057&r=all |
| By: | Borzhyh K. (RANEPA); Ponomarev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The transportation complex and its development, in particular the development of transportation infrastructure, is one of the most important factors of economic growth. Investments in infrastructure invariably have a huge impact on long-term economic growth. A lack of proper infrastructure development can give rise to bottlenecks, imbalances and a significant increase in the cost of doing business.[1] The transportation and logistics complex and related activities play a significant role in the functioning of Russia’s national economy. According to data released by Rosstat, the transportation industry’s share in GDP in 2017 and 2018 was 7.0% and 6.5%, respectively, and at year-end 2019, it was 6.6%. According to the estimates released by the RF Ministry of Economic Development, from 2016 onwards the transportation sector has been making a positive input into GDP growth: 0.09 percentage points in 2016, 0.01 percentage points in 2017, and 0.19 percentage points in 2018; in Q1 and Q2 2019, 0.21 and 0.19 percentage points, respectively; and by year-end 2019, the annual input of the transportation industry into GDP growth is forecast be 0.12 percentage points. Through the existing inter-industry links, the transportation complex influences almost every sector of the national economy. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, customs regulation |
| JEL: | L91 L92 L93 L99 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1059&r=all |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2019, growth rates in fixed investments amounted to 1.7 percent relative to the previous year, while the corresponding indicator a year earlier reached the level of 5.4 percent. Despite certain success in the economic recovery growth in the previous two years, the dynamics of main components of the investment activity was negatively affected by persistence of crisis developments in the construction and investment sector, where fixed investments amounted to 99.2 percent in 2019, and the construction work volume was 97.2 percent against the indicator of 2013 (beginning of investment stagnation). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, fixed investment |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E60 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1048&r=all |
| By: | Alexander V. Bezrukov |
| Abstract: | In this paper it is demonstrated that the application of principal components analysis for regional cluster modelling and analysis is essential in the situations where there is significant multicollinearity among several parameters, especially when the dimensionality of regional data is measured in tens. The proposed principal components model allows for same-quality representation of the clustering of regions. In fact, the clusters become more distinctive and the apparent outliers become either more pronounced with the component model clustering or are alleviated with the respective hierarchical cluster. Thus, a five-component model was obtained and validated upon 85 regions of Russian Federation and 19 socio-economic parameters. The principal components allowed to describe approximately 75 percent of the initial parameters variation and enable further simulations upon the studied variables. The cluster analysis upon the principal components modelling enabled better exposure of regional structure and disparity in economic development in Russian Federation, consisting of four main clusters: the few-numbered highest development regions, the clusters with mid-to-high and low economic development, and the "poorest" regions. It is observable that the development in most regions relies upon resource economy, and the industrial potential as well as inter-regional infrastructural potential are not realized to their fullest, while only the wealthiest regions show highly developed economy, while the industry in other regions shows signs of stagnation which is scaled further due to the conditions entailed by economic sanctions and the recent Covid-19 pandemic. Most Russian regions are in need of additional public support and industrial development, as their capital assets potential is hampered and, while having sufficient labor resources, their donorship will increase. |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2010.10625&r=all |
| By: | Alessandro Stanziani (CRH - Centre de Recherches Historiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | After reviewing the historiography of the Russian economic path, this chapter discusses the period running from the early eighteenth century to the abolition of serfdom (1861) and World War I; it argues that Russian economic dynamics were more important than is usually held in terms of rate of growth, that they were labour-intensive and mostly based on modernizing peasants and landlords. The problem was that these solutions were eventually compatible with the first, but not the second industrial revolution. |
| Keywords: | serfdom,proto-industry,labour intensification,backwardness,coercion,Russia,economic history,eighteenth century,nineteenth century |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02956161&r=all |
| By: | Barinova Vera (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Zemtsov Tsepan (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tsareva Yulia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Government funding of the respective activities of small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) under the national project “Small and medium-sized entrepreneurship and support of entrepreneurial initiatives†increased in 2018-2020. However, in 2019, the number of SMEs subjects decreased by 118 thousand compared to 2018, and the number of people employed in the sector fell to 18.8 million, i.e. decreased by almost half a million people (the goal of the national project for 2024 is 25 million people). The share of the SME sector in GDP decreased to 20 percent in 2018 (the goal of the national project for 2024 is 32.5 percent). Generally, negative trends in the development of the sector, associated with an increase in the VAT rate, the introduction of online cash registers and almost zero growth in household incomes were observed in Russia in 2019. In 2020, near-zero economic growth and the coronavirus pandemic, which has already led to a significant drop in demand, especially in the restaurant business, tourism and entertainment, will negatively affect the development of the SME sector. A more significant reduction in performance of the sector’s activity is expected compared to 2019. However, the conditions for the development of entrepreneurship and, accordingly, the indicated trends vary significantly across Russia’s regions. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, small businesses, medium-sized enterprises |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1052&r=all |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kaukin Andrey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Miller Evgenia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Unlike the previous two years when the domestic market’s weakness was made up for by growth in the foreign trade balance and net exports, in 2019 the development of the Russian economy took place amid a simultaneous decline of the growth rates of overall domestic demand and foreign trade. In 2019, GDP growth rates calculated as per the methods of the system of national accounts (SNA) amounted to 101.3 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage point as compared with the index value of the previous year. For the first time in the past decade, in 2019 the economic situation became complicated owing to a 2.1 percent decrease in exports’ volumes as per the SNA methods in comparable prices relative to the previous year’s index value. Consequently, in 2019 net exports’ contribution to GDP as per SNA methods fell to 2.5 percent against 3.6 percent a year before. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, production, external and internal demand, GDP structure |
| JEL: | G28 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1049&r=all |
| By: | Natalia A. Sadovnikova; Leysan A. Davletshina; Olga A. Zolotareva; Olga O. Lebedinskaya |
| Abstract: | This article presents the results of a cluster analysis of the regions of the Russian Federation in terms of the main parameters of socio-economic development according to the data presented in the official data sources of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat). Studied and analyzed the domestic and foreign (Eurostat) methodology for assessing the socio-economic development of territories. The aim of the study is to determine the main parameters of territorial differentiation and to identify key indicators that affect the socio-economic development of Russian regions. The authors have carried out a classification of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation not in terms of territorial location and geographical features, but in terms of the specifics and key parameters of the socio-economic situation. |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2010.09068&r=all |
| By: | Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | At year-end 2019, the regional consolidated budgets and local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 17.4 billion or 0.02 percent of GDP (contraction by around 30-fold over the year). To compare, in 2018 the regional consolidated budgets and local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 512.9 billion or 0.49 percent of GDP. In 2019, the budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation ran a surplus of RUB 15.5 billion, urban districts’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 16.3 billion, federal-status cities’ inner-city municipalities’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 0.5 billion, municipal areas’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 16.0 billion, urban settlements’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 0.9 billion, local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 12.7 billion. In 2018, the budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation ran a surplus of RUB 491.5 billion, urban districts’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 0.8 billion, federal-status cities’ inner-city municipalities’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 0.4 billion, municipal areas’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 6.7 billion, urban settlements’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 0.2 billion, rural settlements’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 0.6 billion, local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 2.7 billion |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, regional and municipal finances, loan market |
| JEL: | H71 H74 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1041&r=all |
| By: | Ignatov Aleksandr (RANEPA); Larionova Marina (RANEPA); Popova Irina (RANEPA); Sakharov A. (RANEPA); Shelepov A. (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In 2019, the effects of geopolitical contradictions and increasing protectionism continued to influence the global economy, the Russian economy, the economies of our partner countries, and the current agendas of international institutions. The escalation of tensions undermines confidence across the business community and negatively affects investment activity. Investment growth in the G20 countries (China excluding) in 2019 dwindled to 1% (vs 5% in 2018). The growth rate of global trade fell to a record low since 2009 and amounted to 1%.[1] According to the estimates released by the IMF, the negative impact of trade conflicts between the US and China is going to push down global GDP, to 0.8% in in 2020.[2] Even in case of a favorable outcome of the tariff confrontation and the closure of the trade deal between China and the USA, the economies of China’s trading partners (the EU, Japan, South Korea) can expect to experience some negative consequences as a result of changes in the trade flows.[3] The risks of a further slowdown in economic growth remain high, making obvious the need for collective action to restore confidence, strengthen inclusive growth, boost employment, and improve the well-being of citizens. The growing need for multilateral cooperation is also determined by the fact that digital transformation multiplies the cross-border effects of national policies, thus increasing the potential benefits of international cooperation, while at the same time also increasing the risks associated with failures in the operation of multilateral institutions. Under these conditions, Russia’s priority is to build a positive agenda in global and regional economic organizations, as well as cooperation on risks monitoring, development of measures aimed at their prevention overcoming negative unanticipated consequences for the global economy. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, international organizations, international institutional arrangements |
| JEL: | F5 F53 F55 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1060&r=all |
| By: | Tsukhlo Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Prolonged period of industrial business surveys conducted by the Gaidar Institute and representative range of indicators permit to resolve the first task – analyze the situation in the sector in 2019 – determine the place for the year 2019 in all the 28 years’ history of our monitoring the industrial sector. For this purpose, first of all, we will use aggregate indicators. The latter are usually calculated on a monthly basis on the findings obtained from monthly surveys and became widely popular owing to promptness of the findings and limitations of official data released on the Russian industrial sector. However, this approach to present surveys’ findings complicates assessment of each year as a whole. That is why we analyze all consolidated indicators in a year-on-year basis for the entire period of IET business surveys launched in 1992. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, industrial sector, industrial output |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1047&r=all |
| By: | Bozhechkova Alexandra (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Trunin Pavel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2019, a sharp and largely unexpected slowdown in inflation led to a significant easing of monetary policy. Over the course of that year, the Bank of Russia reduced its key rate five times: four times by 0.25 percentage points on June 14, July 26, September 6, and December 13; and by 0.5 percentage points at a meeting of its Board of Directors on October 25. As a result, the key rate declined from 7.75% to 6.25% per annum, thus approaching, according to the estimates of the RF Central Bank,[1] its neutral level.[2] Over the course of 2019, the movement pattern of the key rate was shaped, on the one hand, by the rising inflation risks in the H2 2018 and early 2019 caused by the raise of the VAT rate at the beginning of 2019, a decline of the world market for energy prices, and an increase in inflationary expectations. As a result, in January-May 2019, the regulator did not ease its monetary policy, keeping the key rate unchanged. At the same time, the RF Central Bank’s rhetoric regarding future decisions began to somewhat relax in March-April 2019, as the inflation index passed a local peak (5.3% in March 2019 compared to March 2018). It was only in June 2019 that the Bank of Russia switched over to actually reducing the key rate. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, monetary policy, money market, exchange rate, inflation, balance of payments |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E44 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1038&r=all |
| By: | Abramov Alexander (RANEPA); Chernova Maria (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The year 2019 was one of the luckiest periods in the history of Russia’s stock market. On a 10-year time horizon (2010–2019), the geometric mean return on investment in Russian ruble-denominated stocks amounted to 8.3% per annum, which was below the corresponding indices of only a few markets like the USA, the Scandinavian economies, Japan, India, the Philippines, and Argentina. The average annual return on investment in Russian stocks denominated in US dollars stood at 0.7%, which was significantly below the ruble-denominated return on investment in those same stocks due to the ruble weakening in the post-crisis period. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, stock market, bond market, bond market, derivatives market, private investors |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G18 G21 G24 G28 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1040&r=all |
| By: | Mau Vladimir (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | We are witnessing the formation of a new paradigm that will dominate the socio-economic policy of the foreseeable future. This could be seen in 2019, but in 2020 led to a sharp acceleration of transformation processes. With all the differences of individual countries and regions, one can see common challenges, the answers to which will form the contours of this new paradigm. And for all the specific tasks that Russia has to solve, its development is an organic part of the global agenda and depends on the ability to find answers to common challenges. Thirty years ago, the peoples of many developed and developing countries lived with the hope of a speedy advance of a new bright world – a world without threats and confrontations, a free and dynamically developing world. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, economic growth, economic crisis, economic policy |
| JEL: | P16 P26 P48 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1043&r=all |
| By: | Volovik Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Amid prolonged trade tensions, high political uncertainties and the COVID-19 pandemic, the global growth outlook has become much worse. In the past year, in global economic growth rates there was a dramatic slowdown both of international trade flows and global production activities. The growing tariffs and rapid changes in the trade policy led to the decline of business confidence and, consequently, restrained investment growth in most regions. Sluggish demand affected global prices of primary products, particularly, crude oil and commercial metals |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1045&r=all |
| By: | Kazenin Konstantin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Starodubrovskaya Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Last year (2019) was the tenth year of the implementation of the Strategy of Socioeconomic Development of the North Caucasus Federal Okrug until 2025, adopted in 2010. The Strategy aims at achieving significant economic growth across the North Caucasus regions, as well as modernizing their social structure and stabilizing their socio-political situation. In order to achieve economic growth in the North Caucasus, the Strategy focuses on the creation of a tourism cluster, accelerated development of the region’s transport system, and the emergence of new centers of economic development. The Strategy’s targets that should serve as the indicators of its successful implementation (under the optimal scenario) are the gross regional product growth of 7.7% per annum in the regions of the North-Caucasian Federal Okrug, and industrial production growth of 10.1% per annum over the period from 2010 through 2025. The Strategy also aims at creating not less than 400,000 new jobs, reducing the official unemployment rate to 5% (from 16.5% in 2010), and decreasing the share of households with incomes below the subsistence level to 9.2% (from the regions average of 15.5% 2010). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, North Caucasus |
| JEL: | H11 H70 H77 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1062&r=all |
| By: | Avxentyev Nikolay (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Nazarov Vladimir (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sisigina Natalya (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In many ways, the year 2019 was supposed to be a watershed for Russia’s healthcare system. This was the final year of the ambitious six-year program set forth in the May 2012 Executive Orders of the President, to be followed by even more substantial transformations under the new national project ‘Healthcare’. Meanwhile, the burgeoning unified national health system was continually evolving, its goal being to provide the entire nation with guaranteed equal rights to medical care. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, health care system |
| JEL: | I1 I15 I18 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1056&r=all |
| By: | Polezhaeva Natalia (RANEPA); Apevalova Elena (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | An analysis of corporate governance practices would be impossible without understanding the corporate governance development in the context of Russian and world practices. With a certain degree of arbitrariness, the following main phases of its development can be distinguished. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, corporate governance |
| JEL: | G32 G33 G34 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1055&r=all |
| By: | Burdyak Alexandra (RANEPA); Grishina Elena (RANEPA); Eliseeva Marina (RANEPA); Lyashok Viktor (RANEPA); Maleva Tatiana (RANEPA); Mkrtchian Nikita (RANEPA); Florinskaya Yulia (RANEPA); Khasanova Ramilya (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | Despite a small growth of the real disposable cash income of the population seen in 2018–2019, so far there has been no recovery to the cash income of the population seen in 2013 in the wake of their decrease seen in 2014-2016. The real disposable cash income in 2019 came to barely 92.5 percent of the 2013 level. Also there was no recovery growth of the average amount of allocated pensions: in 2019 they came to 96.2 percent in real terms of the 2013 level. For comparison, the real wage recovered relative to the 2013 level even in 2018, and in 2019 it amounted to 106.6 percent against the 2013 level. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, households, labor market, social sentiment, internal migration, long-term migration, external labor migration |
| JEL: | D14 J01 J61 J62 F22 J11 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1053&r=all |
| By: | Denisova, Irina; Chubarova, Tatiana; Bogatova, Irina; Vartanov, Sergey; Kucheryanu, Valerian; Polterovich, Victor; Tourdyeva, Natalia; Shakleina, Marina |
| Abstract: | Neurodegenerative diseases, Parkinson disease being an example, set challenges to modern societies both in terms of premature deaths and resources spent on treatment of the diseases. Prevention and early diagnostics in particular, are potential directions towards higher economic efficiency of healthcare interventions in this area. We suggest a way to modify the cost-utility approach to evaluation of economic efficiency of an early diagnostics method of Parkinson disease (PD) at the laboratory stage of the diagnostics method. The lack of detailed understanding of the early testing group selection and composition are the major challenges to economic evaluation here. In particular, we consider the approach to diagnose PD at the prodromal stage suggested by Ugrumov 2020. The early diagnostics at the prodromal stage, accompanied by neuroprotective therapy of those identified at high risk of PD, allows postponing PD development for later years. The innovative approach implies saving both direct and indirect costs of PD treatment in comparison with traditional approach but adds costs of testing for the high risk of PD. The latter component may be non-trivial depending on the rules of selection into the group of tested. We suggest a way to modify the cost-utility evaluation procedure so that to take this uncertainty into account. We formulate the economic efficiency condition of the early diagnostics method in terms of the minimal probability of PD in the tested group and estimate the probability based on the Russian data. The latter sets the important threshold for innovative technology when moving from the laboratory into the clinical stage. |
| Keywords: | Economic efficiency in healthcare, Parkinson disease, early diagnostics, cost-utility approach |
| JEL: | H43 I18 |
| Date: | 2020–10–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:103691&r=all |
| By: | Klyachko Tatiana (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In 2019, the implementation of the “Education†national project began in the education sector. If in 2012–2018 the state policy’s main objective was to raise wages of teaching employees, now within the next six years it is necessary to carry out ten federal projects – included in the specified national project – which set the lines of the long-term development of this sector. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, higher education, vocational education, job skills |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I25 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1054&r=all |
| By: | Shagaida Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Shishkina Ekaterina (RANEPA); Gataulina Ekaterina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Ternovskiy D. (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Sustainable positive dynamics of agricultural production allowed agrarians, economists and politicians to talk about the industry not only as an instrument for ensuring food security, but also as a driver of economic growth. The inclusion of gross value added (GVA) data in the target indicators of the Government Program of Agriculture Development and Regulation of Markets for Agricultural Products, Raw Materials and Foodstuffs (hereinafter referred to as the Government Program) proved this thesis in practice. At the same time, over recent years, growth of agricultural production is accompanied by reduction of agricultural share in the national economy. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, agricultural production |
| JEL: | Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2020-1046&r=all |
| By: | Polbin, Andrey; Shumilov, Andrei |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a review of foreign studies analyzing the role of entrepreneurs in the accumulation and distribution of wealth and approaches to modeling entrepreneurship as an integral part of the economy for evaluating the consequences of alternative economic policies. According to the main results of the empirical literature, entrepreneurs, first, own a substantial share of total household wealth, and many of the wealthiest people are entrepreneurs. Second, entrepreneurs have higher saving rates than other households, and, third, entrepreneurs face restrictions on borrowing. We survey dynamic general equilibrium models based on stylized facts about the behavior of entrepreneurs, where agents can choose the type of activity between entrepreneurship and wage labor. Mechanisms of encouraging entrepreneurial savings due to borrowing constraints, financial intermediation costs, and uninsured entrepreneurial risk allow calibrated versions of these models to successfully replicate the observed distribution of household wealth. Results of counterfactual experiments to evaluate the effects of various types of tax reforms and financial shocks in models with entrepreneurs are reviewed. The possibility of constructing a similar model for the Russian economy is discussed. |
| Keywords: | entrepreneurship; borrowing constraints; wealth distribution; savings behavior; occupational choice |
| JEL: | D31 E21 J24 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:103675&r=all |