nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2020‒11‒02
four papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Сравнительный анализ прогнозных моделей российского ВВП в условиях наличия структурных сдвигов By Fokin, Nikita; Haritonova, Marina
  2. Monthly Report No. 04/2020 By Andrei V. Belyi; Julia Grübler; Peter Havlik; Grzegorz Kolodko
  3. Money Demand: The Guide to Monetary Policy in Russia, 1997-2020 By Olga Khon
  4. Financing models of vocational education and its impact on the economy: Problems and perspectives By Abuselidze, George; Beridze, Lasha

  1. By: Fokin, Nikita; Haritonova, Marina
    Abstract: In this paper we compare two types of models for forecasting Russia’s GDP under the structural breaks. We consider models that allow breaks in a deterministic trend, in which the dates of structural breaks set exogenously, and more flexible class of models – with a stochastic trend. We show that models with a stochastic trend demonstrate the best result in GDP growth rates forecasting for a year ahead. For shorter horizons, the best forecasting model is the error correction model with a break in the deterministic trend in the GDP level.
    Keywords: forecasting; real GDP; structural breaks; long-term growth rate; oil prices; Russian economy
    JEL: C32 C53
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Andrei V. Belyi; Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Grzegorz Kolodko
    Abstract: Chart of the month COVID-19 measures and mobility responses in CESEE countries by Julia Grübler Opinion Corner Three decades of successful post-socialist transformation, and what next? A programme for Poland by Grzegorz W. Kolodko This note argues that economic and social policy in Poland should go beyond a mere maximising of GDP growth and target a wide range of areas, such as consumer protection, investments in human capital, the quality of environment, demographic decline, sustainability of the pension system, and a more socially-oriented taxation system. New oil counter-shock advent of uncertainties by Andrei Belyi The current slump in oil prices is a reflection of fundamental uncertainties and, unlike previous such episodes, will do little to boost economic growth. Its effect on oil-producing countries is likely to be asymmetric, with Russia lagging behind OPEC in terms of the competitiveness of its oil industry. The era of low oil prices does not bode well for energy transition, as incentives for this will be greatly diminished and cash-strapped budgets will be in need of excise taxes on oil products. Challenges of reintegrating Donbas into Ukraine what role for foreign assistance? by Peter Havlik The conflict in Donbas that has just marked its sixth anniversary is having a significant impact on the whole of Ukraine. In contrast to the unprecedented scale of international assistance provided to Ukraine so far, the engagement of the private sector has been disappointing. A ‘freezing’ of the conflict – mediated by the conflict parties with international support – would be an important step towards curtailing human suffering and mitigating the costs of economic reconstruction. The coronavirus crisis is driving Donbas into the Russian-managed space. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: COVID-19 measures, mobility responses, economic and social policy, human capital, consumer protection, environment, demography, pension system, taxation, oil price, oil production costs, fiscal balance, energy transition, Donbas conflict, economic consequences, foreign assistance, FDI inflows
    Date: 2020–04
  3. By: Olga Khon (Independent Researcher, Saint Petersburg)
    Abstract: We estimate a short-run demand function, using the quarterly data available for modern Russian market - on the one-quarter basis for 1997-2020. Empirical results provide a stable money demand function that explains the short-run money velocity movement. The approach is based on econometric models and dynamic least square methods evaluation within the Akaike criterion applied for the authors? choice of leads and lags. The prior innovation related to model comparison of interest rates in money demand function ? from research-common money market rate to interbank market rate, amplifying proxy better-fitted for the Russian market.
    Keywords: Monetary policy, money demand, money velocity, income elasticity, interest semi-elasticity
    JEL: E41 G28 C50
  4. By: Abuselidze, George; Beridze, Lasha
    Abstract: Vocational education and related financial support are one of the priorities of the countries policy at the present stage. Education is the fundamental foundation that is necessary for development of the world. While the deterioration of the socio-economic situation in transition in Georgia, inadequate economic policies, the adoption of inappropriate employment decisions, the use of models used by developed countries, and many others, caused the departure of vocational education space in the country. In the survey is studied vocational education financing models of developed countries and the education policy of Georgia. The research process uses the qualitative and quantitative method of data collection. The work is undertaken in depth research of the current model of funding of vocational education programs, analysis and relevant conclusions.
    Date: 2019

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