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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2020‒10‒12
fifteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Lanshina, Tatiana (Ланьшина, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The mechanisms of regulation and support of RES in Russia and abroad have been investigated, proposals have been developed for the implementation of a policy in the field of RES for the period from 2025 to 2035, taking into account the best world experience and the characteristics of the Russian energy industry. The results of the study provide recommendations for the period up to 2035. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052011&r=all |
| By: | Grishina, Irina (Гришина, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Polynev, Andrey (Полынев, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shkuropat, Anna (Шкуропат, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kotov, Alexander (Котов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Development of a methodology for medium-term forecasting of socio-economic development in the context of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, taking into account the forecast of the main macroeconomic parameters and territorial factors that determine the interregional differentiation of the socio-economic development of Russia. To achieve the above goal, the following tasks were solved: - the analysis of domestic and foreign experience in forecasting the socio-economic development of regions and methods of decomposition of predicted macroeconomic indicators at the regional level was carried out; - the analysis of the territorial proportions of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the retrospective period was carried out, the identification of the main factors of their formation and trends of change; - methodological approaches to forecasting indicators of socio-economic development of constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the medium term have been developed using the version of forecasting macroeconomic indicators of the development of the Russian Federation; - formed the initial statistical base for forecasting indicators of socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2022; - options for a preliminary forecast of the main indicators of the socio-economic development of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation for the period 2020 - 2024 have been developed. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052015&r=all |
| By: | Komissarov, Aleksey (Комиссаров, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Selezneva, Elena (Селезнева, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sinyagin, Yuriy (Синягин, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sinyagina, Natalia (Синягина, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Chirkovskaya, Elena (Чирковская, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In the work, the existing global and domestic approaches to talent management systems in the corporate environment and at the state level were generalized. Authors identified the significant talent management practices. Authors determined the importance of talent development in improving the performance of public authorities and business companies. The collected material made it possible to conclude that a unified system of work with citizens with personal and professional talents should be aimed at creating conditions and opportunities for the development, disclosure and realization of potentials based on key personal and professional resources, abilities and competencies. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052017&r=all |
| By: | Polina Bugakova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ilya Prakhov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Despite the unified system of admission to universities in Russia, applicants can still face unequal access to higher education. This can lead to an inefficient choice of the educational strategy and result in the increased inequality. This paper analyzes the barriers which restrict the interregional accessibility of higher education in the context of the Unified State Exam (USE). We propose an analytical model, reflecting the influence of channels such as family, school characteristics, and place of birth, on the educational strategies of youth. We assume that these factors affect the likelihood of being enrolled at university both directly and indirectly through USE scores. Given the unequal regional economic development and the differences in educational opportunities, we argue that university choice can be limited for certain cohorts of applicants, depending on their place of origin, because of differences in the magnitude of the barriers. An empirical examination of the model, based on data from the longitudinal study ‘Trajectories in education and careers’, shows that students from Moscow or Moscow Region are most likely to enroll at university, since they face the lowest barriers. The problem of the accessibility of higher education is more acute for residents of large cities or regional capitals: their likelihood of matriculating is limited by a large number of factors (cognitive abilities, SES, school characteristics). Residents of other settlements (small towns or villages), are least likely to be admitted to university, facing the highest barriers and gender inequality. |
| Keywords: | higher education, accessibility of higher education, regional educational markets, the Unified State Exam |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:58edu2020&r=all |
| By: | Afees A. Salisu (Centre for Econometric & Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria); Juncal Cunado (Economics Department, University of Navarra, Spain); Kazeem Isah (Centre for Econometric & Allied Research, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Relying on the Uncovered Equity Parity, we examine whether stock returns contain useful information that can be exploited to improve the forecast accuracy of exchange rate movements of the BRICS using a long range of data sample. Thus, we formulate a predictive model that links exchange rate movements to stock return differential between the domestic market and the foreign (US) market. We also test for any probable asymmetric relationship between the two variables while also accounting for the role of observed common (global) factor such as oil price. We find a positive relationship between stock return differential and exchange rate return for three of the BRICS countries namely Brazil, India and South Africa, thus validating the UEP hypothesis while a contrasting evidence is observed for China as well as Russia (after accounting for “asymmetry†effect†). Our in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts validate the significance of the predictive content of stock returns for exchange rate movements of the BRICS while accounting for the role of observed common (global) factor and asymmetry may further improve the forecast accuracy. Our results have implications for portfolio diversification and foreign exchange management. |
| Keywords: | Stock market, Exchange rate, Uncovered Equity Parity, Forecast evaluation |
| JEL: | F31 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202086&r=all |
| By: | Fokin, Nikita (Фокин, Никита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper contains the construction of the large vector autoregression with L 1 regularization on monthly data of Russian macroeconomic indicators taking into account the high dependence of the domestic economy on oil prices. The point of this work is to demonstrate the possibility and advantages of using the described approach to forecast Russian macroparameters using a large set of regressors, which from the theoretical point of view should improve the forecasts in comparison with models with a smaller dimension. Data on indices of industrial production, producer prices, investments, exports, imports, interest rates, indicators of consolidated and federal budgets, etc. were used. The final database consists of 45 variables with a total length of 15 years, for the period 2002M01-2016M12 - 180 points, from 44 regressors are endogenous, as well as one exogenous - the real oil price. The L 1 regularization approach used in this paper allows us to estimate the model on such a large amount of data even if the observations are less than the number of estimated parameters. Based on the estimated model, we evaluate pseudo out of sample forecasts of indices of industrial production and the quality of the obtained forecasts was compared with the quality of the forecasts for the classical ARIMA model. The results of the evaluated model testify to the superiority of the evaluated model over all the benchmarks considered. |
| Keywords: | indices of industrial production, ARIMA model, VAR model, VAR-LASSO model, forecasting, impulse responses, long-run multipliers, oil prices |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052010&r=all |
| By: | Yugay, Stanislav; Götz, Linde; Svanidze, Miranda |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2020–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi18:305595&r=all |
| By: | Bozhechkova, Alexandra (Божечкова, Александра) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Dobronravova, Elizaveta (Добронравова, Елизавета) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Evseev, Alexey (Евсеев, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shemyakina, Kira (Шемякина, Кира) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we estimate the level of price rigidity in Russian economy. First we review the main theoretical models of price setting, the methods used to estimate the level of price rigidity using micro-data on the prices of particular goods and services and indirectly using the data on the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. Then we present the results of microestimates of price rigidity based on online-prices, which were collected using web-scrapping techniques. The average price duration for food commodities is estimated at 2.6 months. We also do the calibration of price rigidity parameters in a structural model of the production sector using macroeconomic data. According to our estimates, the average price duration in Russian economy doesn’t exceed 4.5 months, which is much less than standard values (3-4 quarters) used in DSGE-models. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052013&r=all |
| By: | Melianova, Ekaterina (Higher School of Economics, St. Petersburg branch); Parandekar, Suhas (World Bank); Patrinos, Harry A. (World Bank); Volgin, Artëm (Higher School of Economics, St. Petersburg branch) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents new estimates of the returns to education in the Russian Federation using data from 1994 to 2018. Although the returns to schooling increased for a time, they are now much lower than the global average. Private returns to education are three times greater for higher education compared with vocational education, and the returns to education for females are higher than for males. Returns for females show an inverse U-shaped curve over the past two decades. Female education is a policy priority and there is a need to investigate the labor market relevance of vocational education. Higher education may have reached an expansion limit, and it may be necessary to investigate options for increasing the productivity of schooling. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, Russian Federation |
| JEL: | I26 I28 J16 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13726&r=all |
| By: | Bespalov, Sergey (Беспалов, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Maracha, Vyacheslav (Марача, Вячеслав) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The first section examines the historical experience of organizing interaction between state authorities and business associations in the states of East Asia, many aspects of which seem to be quite significant for modern Russia. The second section is devoted to such an important aspect of the relationship between business and the state as the specifics of the interaction of state structures with entrepreneurial communities of the network type. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052020&r=all |
| By: | Ekaterina Nastina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anna Almakaeva (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This research focuses on emancipative value orientations, regional factors and their interaction in determining social capital in Russia. We are especially interested in how the effects vary for formal and informal social capital, measured as different types of civic engagement. Applying multilevel regression modeling on national survey data MegaFOM 2017 and available official statistics, we find that emancipative values significantly increase the probability of taking part in civic activities, yet the effect is larger and more uniform across regions for formal social capital. Contrary to expectations and previous cross-country studies, the moderating effect of emancipative values prevalence is either insignificant or rather unstable and goes in the negative direction. Moreover, other regional resources do not significantly moderate the relation between individual emancipative values preference and social capital. |
| Keywords: | social capital, emancipative values, informal social capital, formal social capital, civic engagement, regional studies |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:95/soc/2020&r=all |
| By: | Vladyslav Filatov (National Bank of Ukraine); ; |
| Abstract: | This study improves on the methodology for calculating the financial stress index (FSI) for Ukraine by introducing time-varying correlation into the aggregation of 5 sub-indices (representing the banking sector, households, the corporate sector, government securities, and the foreign exchange (FX) market). The index consists of 20 indicators selected from an initial list of 47 potential candidates. To check the performance of the indicators, sub-indices, and index, we use area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and logit tests. Each sub-index is assigned a weight that reflects the impact of each market on the financial system. This new FSI peaks during periods of crisis that are in line with the consensus of financial experts and performs better than the previous FSI, which makes it more attractive for policy decisions. In particular, the new FSI can be used as a monitoring tool for the macroprudential policy of the National Bank of Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | financial stability, financial stress index, indicator performance |
| JEL: | E44 G01 G18 |
| Date: | 2020–09–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp15-2020&r=all |
| By: | Ira Nichols-Barrer; Nicholas Ingwersen; Elena Moroz; Matt Sloan |
| Abstract: | This report provides baseline results for the evaluation of the ILEI activity. |
| Keywords: | Georgia, international, education quality, school rehabilitation |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:b0bd20e3287a4b5583315f1d0afb5f3a&r=all |
| By: | Natalia Li (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of resource intensity on occupational health in Kazakhstan, exploiting official statistical data on injury rates, mining production and employment, income and inequality measurements across 16 regions for period from 2001 to 2014. The injury and the fatality rates in the panel are estimated using fixed effects and random effects model respectively. The results indicate positive correlation between engagement in the resource sector and the injury rate. The paper also finds other significant determinants of occupational accident rates in Kazakhstan – inequality, income, and unemployment. |
| Keywords: | occupational health and safety, Kazakhstan, mining, resource sector, occupational accidents |
| JEL: | J28 J24 I15 J80 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2020_34&r=all |
| By: | Danilo Leiva†Leon (Banco de España); Gabriel Perez†Quiros (European Central Bank and CEPR); Eyno Rots (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary)) |
| Abstract: | We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real†time. It relies on non†linear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and Australia) and emerging markets (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa). Based on such inferences, we construct a Global Weakness Index that has three main features. First, it can be updated as soon as new regional data is released, as we show by measuring the economic effects of coronavirus. Second, it provides a consistent narrative of the main regional contributors of world economy’s weakness. Third, it allows to perform robust risk assessments based on the probability that the level of global weakness would exceed a certain threshold of interest in every period of time. With information up to March 2nd 2020, we show that the Global Weakness Index already sharply increased at a speed at least comparable to the experienced in the 2008 crisis. |
| Keywords: | International, Business Cycles, Factor Model, Nonlinear. |
| JEL: | E32 C22 E27 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2020/4&r=all |