nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2020‒09‒28
six papers chosen by

  1. The Changing Composition of Academic Majors and Wage Dynamics By Kyui, Natalia; Radchenko, Natalia
  2. What Can Be the Way out of the Impasse in Belarus? By Rumen Dobrinsky
  3. Livestock in Central Asia: From rural subsistence to engine of growth? By Robinson, Sarah
  4. Political Factors of Regional Inequality: Comparative Studies By Komleva, Valentina (Комлева, Валентина); Belyaeva, Olga (Беляева, Ольга); Golubchenko, Igor (Голубченко, Игорь)
  5. Ten Contemporary Wounds of the Market Economy By Jacques Fontanel
  6. Stadium attendance demand during the COVID-19 crisis: Early empirical evidence from Belarus By J. James Reade; Dominik Schreyer; Carl Singleton

  1. By: Kyui, Natalia (Bank of Canada); Radchenko, Natalia (American University)
    Abstract: We can observe several common trends related to higher education in many countries. First, there is expansion of higher education with a shift towards majoring in the social sciences. And second, there is growing inequality among college graduates in the labor market. In Russia, these trends have been present but with an amplified magnitude in recent years. Constructing a unique data set using open-ended responses to the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey, we use the Russian case to examine the effects of the changing composition of academic majors during expansion of higher education on the dynamics of wage distribution. This paper contains several contributions to the literature. First, we extend standard wage analysis across majors by exploring within-major and across-cohort variation, as well as major-specific permanent and transitory variance components and their time paths. We show that the evolving distribution of wages relates to both changes in skill prices and wage shocks induced by economic fluctuations. Next, we show that variation in skill prices relates to equilibrium effects induced by changes in the supply of graduates specialized in different fields. Uneven expansion in certain majors induces labor market saturation and leads to an increase in the wage variance of graduates from the fastest growing majors. Finally, we point out the importance of accounting for within-major heterogeneity across cohorts, which could reflect differences in student ability distribution, changes in academic content, and changes in educational quality over time.
    Keywords: returns to academic majors, wage dynamics and inequality, structural analysis of wage variance
    JEL: I2 J31
    Date: 2020–08
  2. By: Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Public discontent with Mr. Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule had been piling up for years and came to the surface after the fraudulent presidential election held in August 2020. At present the country is in a political stalemate as the official election results are challenged by a large part of the population and by the West but recognised by Russia and China. In the present circumstances there are no straightforward ways to break the gridlock, and different scenarios are possible. At the same time the Belarusian economy is plagued with serious problems that call for radical economic reforms. Belarus’s economic and political problems are intertwined the way the political crisis will be resolved will shape the future of the Belarusian economy.
    Keywords: Belarus, elections, political stalemate, credibility and legitimacy of power, succession of power, economic reforms
    JEL: E65 P21 P30
    Date: 2020–09
  3. By: Robinson, Sarah
    Abstract: This paper presents an overview of the livestock sector in Central Asia using national statistics and field survey data. Growing consumer demand and underused pasture reserves suggest significant potential for growth. But production is fragmented between many small household producers with poor access to land, family farms and very large (but often inefficient) enterprises. Few producers can supply quality livestock products at high volumes, leading some meat and milk processors to favour imported produce. Peri-urban milk suppliers may participate in value chains through wholesalers, but in remoter areas farms specialise in meat production, reliant on long chains of intermediaries. Only in Kazakhstan do international agreements, slaughter and animal health arrangements favour export prospects in the near future. Since the 1990s, winter fodder deficits have limited livestock productivity. Domestic fodder production is increasing in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but is hindered by state order policies in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Dairy producers close to markets often provide high quality fodder, whilst need for supplements is lower amongst mobile meat producers with winter pasture. Amongst the latter, a class of large commercial operations is emerging, whilst smaller farms lacking access to grazing resources find it harder to grow. Government policy often magnifies differences between small and large producers, for example through conditions for subsidies or land access procedures. Subsidised credit is available in most republics but uptake is limited by effective demand. Improved public services, better support for service cooperatives and decentralised processing and slaughter facilities would help producers increase value from their livestock.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Komleva, Valentina (Комлева, Валентина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Belyaeva, Olga (Беляева, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Golubchenko, Igor (Голубченко, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper identifies historically established political factors that have influenced the differentiation of regions and the latest political factors connected to new risks and threats for the sustainable development of regions. Methodological approaches to assessing regional disparities have been analyzed. The conclusion about the gap between theoretical research and decision-making practice with regard to policies to reduce inequality is explained. A comparative analysis of modern policy decisions to reduce regional inequality in Russia and Italy has been made. It was found that a number of decisions aimed at mitigating the effects of inequality and its reduction further increase the inequality of some groups of the population and some territories.
    Keywords: inequality, regional inequality, factors of inequality, criteria of inequality, regional policy, state policy, state regulation.
    Date: 2020–06
  5. By: Jacques Fontanel (CESICE [1977-2015] - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes [1977-2015] - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG [?-2019] - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble [?-2019])
    Abstract: The faith in the self-balancing of the markets is however contradicted by the facts, but its defenders always find in economic intervention the State the fundamental cause of crises. The role assigned to the State in economic and social life is mainly a philosophical, moral and of course political question. Market economy did not lead to peace, and globalisation is nor a panacea. At the international level, American leadership is taking hold, but China is beginning to concurrence it. The struggle will be fierce in the years to come, because both countries want to rule the world to their benefit, thanks to their domination effects on the most powerful technologies for the future, such as artificial intelligence, space and especially information management. Europe is still in political, economic and philosophical crisis. BRICS do seek to define common solidarity policies, but their internal divergences often do not allow them to impose their objectives. Social inequalities have been growing for almost half a century. In the future, they will raise considerable economic problems that will undoubtedly lead to worrying social and societal conflicts. The robotic and digital revolutions call into question the importance and content of human labour. Finally, the looming environmental crisis, especially with global warming, may lead to the progressive collapse of the human race.
    Abstract: La foi dans l'auto-équilibre des marchés est contredite par les faits, mais ses défenseurs trouvent toujours dans l'intervention économique l'État la cause fondamentale des crises. Le rôle assigné à l'État dans la vie économique et sociale est principalement une question philosophique, morale et bien sûr politique. L'économie de marché ne conduit pas à la paix, et la mondialisation n'est pas une panacée. Au niveau international, le leadership américain s'impose, mais la Chine commence à l'inquiéter. La lutte sera féroce dans les années à venir, car les deux pays veulent diriger le monde à leur avantage, grâce à leurs effets de domination sur les technologies les plus puissantes du futur, comme l'intelligence artificielle, l'espace et surtout la gestion de l'information. L'Europe est toujours en crise politique, économique et philosophique. Les BRICS cherchent à définir des politiques communes de solidarité, mais leurs divergences internes ne leur permettent pas d'imposer leurs objectifs. Les inégalités sociales s'accentuent depuis près d'un demi-siècle. À l'avenir, elles soulèveront des problèmes économiques considérables qui entraîneront sans aucun doute des conflits sociaux et sociétaux inquiétants. Les révolutions de la robotique et du numérique remettent en question l'importance et le contenu du travail humain. Enfin, la crise environnementale qui se profile, notamment avec le réchauffement climatique, pourrait entraîner l'effondrement progressif de la race humaine.
    Keywords: State,Europe,Leadership,BRICS,Digital Revolution,Environment,Economics,USA,China,inequalities.
    Date: 2020
  6. By: J. James Reade (Department of Economics, University of Reading); Dominik Schreyer (Wissenschaftliche Hochschule für Unternehmensführung (WHU)); Carl Singleton (Department of Economics, University of Reading)
    Abstract: In this note, we consider early evidence regarding behavioural responses to an emerging public health emergency. We explore patterns in stadium attendance demand by exploiting match-level data from the Belarusian Premier League (BPL), a football competition that kept playing unrestricted in front of spectators throughout the global COVID-19 pandemic, unlike all other European professional sports leagues. We observe that stadium attendance demand in Belarus declined significantly in the initial period of maximum uncertainty. Surprisingly, demand then slowly recovered, despite the ongoing inherent risk to individuals from going to a match.
    Keywords: Attendance, COVID-19, Football/soccer, Spectator decision-making, public health
    JEL: D12 D81 D90 H12 I18 L83 Z20
    Date: 2020–07–14

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