nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2020‒09‒21
ten papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Economic Crises and Mortality Among the Elderly: Evidence from Two Russian Crises By Khvan, Margarita; Smorodenkova, Elizaveta; Yakovlev, Evgeny
  2. The Implications of oil market volatility on the credit risk of some oil-exporting countries By Ibrahima Bah; Jules Sadefo Kamdem; Abdou Salam Diallo
  3. The Competitiveness and Complementarity of Arms Trade of Countries along the "Belt and Road" and its Dynamic Evolution: Based on Complex Network Analysis Method By Hu, Yuanhong
  4. Transatlantic excess mortality comparisons in the pandemic By ARON, JANINE; Muellbauer, John
  5. The effect of corruption on economic growth in the BRICS countries. A panel data analysis By Siphiwo Bitterhout; Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne
  6. Compassion and Envy in Welfare Comparisons By Flaviana Palmisano
  7. In search of the contours of the post-COVID Sustainable Development Goals: The case of BRICS By Bobylev, Sergey; Grigoryev, Leonid
  8. Household labor supply: Collective results for certain developed countries By Bautista Lacambra, Sergio
  9. Employment Strategies to Respond to COVID-19: Characterizing Input-Output Linkages of a Targeted Sector By Temel, Tugrul
  10. Alternative lenses for viewing how China has built its accounting and auditing profession By Macve, Richard

  1. By: Khvan, Margarita (New Economic School, Moscow); Smorodenkova, Elizaveta (New Economic School, Moscow); Yakovlev, Evgeny (New Economic School, Moscow)
    Abstract: We assess the short-term effects of the two recent economic crises, the Great Recession and the collapse of the USSR, on the elderly mortality in Russia. According to our study, crises have led to an increase in mortality with quantitatively similar elasticities of death with respect to GDP fall for both events. Further analysis of the Great Recession suggests that income depreciation, limited access to medical services, and an increase in alcohol consumption are responsible for the rise in mortality. While increases at a higher rate compared to overall mortality, alcohol-related mortality explains a relatively small part of total mortality rise.
    Keywords: mortality, crises
    JEL: J1 H1 I1
    Date: 2020–07
  2. By: Ibrahima Bah (MRE - Montpellier Recherche en Economie - UM - Université de Montpellier); Jules Sadefo Kamdem (MRE - Montpellier Recherche en Economie - UM - Université de Montpellier); Abdou Salam Diallo (MRE - Montpellier Recherche en Economie - UM - Université de Montpellier)
    Abstract: The credit risk of oil-exporting countries could depend on the evolution of oil market. Indeed, the instability of oil prices can cause defaults on debt repayments, with a consequent deterioration in the credit quality of exporting countries. In this paper, through an econometric analysis between oil price and other variables of oil market and CDS premium volatilities, we highlight causalities between some variable of the oil market and the variation of the credit default of some oil-exporting countries. For illustration, we have randomly chosen to treat these oil-exporting countries: Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Russia, Norway, Kazakhstan and Qatar. A particular focus of our analysis is to study the slump of oil market in mid-2014 on the six countries credit default spreads volatility.
    Date: 2021–01
  3. By: Hu, Yuanhong
    Abstract: This paper uses network analysis to study the competitiveness and complementarity and its dynamic change of arms trade among countries along the "Belt and Road" during 2004-2016. The research shows that: (1) The arms trade relations of the countries along the "belt and road" are increasingly strengthened, the trade network density is increased, and the trade centralization trend is obvious. Trade competition intensifies and is greater than trade complementarity. (2) In terms of the complementary relationship of arms trade, there are two important national blocks. One is an export-oriented block composed of Russia and some central-eastern European countries. The other is a compatible type block composed of China, India and other countries. (3) In terms of arms trade competitiveness, the countries along "Belt and Road" are divided into three competing groups: the first group is composed of Russia, Israel and some central-eastern European countries; The second group is composed of China, India and other emerging arms producing and selling countries. The third is a wide range of other countries along the "Belt and Road".
    Keywords: Belt and Road,Arms Trade,Complex Network,Trade Competitiveness,Trade Complementarity
    JEL: F19 F50
    Date: 2020
  4. By: ARON, JANINE; Muellbauer, John
    Abstract: In a previous article, we considered key issues for comparing rates of excess mortality between countries and regions, with an application to European countries. This article compares the U.S. with Europe, and U.S. regions with the main European countries. The U.S. policy-makers had multiple advantages over European countries, such as Italy and Spain, in responding to the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic: more time to react, with excess deaths lagging three weeks behind, and a younger, less densely-populated, less urban population. With the further passage of time, medical knowledge about Covid-19 has improved, health and testing capacities have been built up and practical experience has allowed both the private precautionary responses of citizens and of public policies to develop. This should have given countries and regions, for example, the U.S. South, the West and the Midwest, together accounting for 83 percent of the U.S. population, and where the spread of virus occurred later, a further advantage over those caught up in the first pandemic wave. Despite this, a comparison for the whole of the U.S. with Europe, excluding Russia, shows that the cumulative rate of excess mortality in 2020 was higher in the U.S.. And for the U.S. Northeast, the most comparable U.S. region, being closest to major European countries in the timing of the pandemic, and in population-density, age and urbanisation, the plausible measures of excess mortality prove substantially worse than for the worst-affected countries in Europe. These findings contradict recent claims by the U.S. President.
    Date: 2020–08–25
  5. By: Siphiwo Bitterhout; Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne (College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of corruption on economic growth in the BRICS countries using panel dataset spanning the period 1996 to 2014. Empirical results indicate that controlling for only heterogeneity (fixed effect) leads to a negative association between output growth and corruption index. However, when heterogeneity and endogeneity are accounted for (GMM specifications), the corruption index exhibits a positive and significant effect on economic growth. While this result is contrary to a large body of empirical evidence, bar a few, which has found corruption to have a detrimental impact on economic growth, the growth impact of corruption does indeed decreases with the level of corruption. This suggests a possible corruption level from which, the relation might lead to opposite effects.
    Keywords: Corruption, Economic Growth and Panel Data
    JEL: C23 D73 O40
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Flaviana Palmisano
    Abstract: Normative-based distributional comparisons across countries and over time usually build upon the assumption that individuals are selfish. However, there is a consolidated evidence that individuals also care about what others have. In this paper we propose a framework for comparing and ranking distributions that includes non-individualistic possibilities. Specifically, we consider ranking criteria that account, in one case, for the feeling of compassion that is generated by those having lower resources and, in the other case, for the feeling of envy that is generated by those having higher resources. We illustrate our framework using CNEF data for Australia, Korea, Germany, Russia, Switzerland and the US and show that accounting for the presence of envy and compassion might lead to different rankings.
    Keywords: ranking criteria, compassion, envy, social welfare, CNEF
    JEL: D63 I31 O12
    Date: 2020
  7. By: Bobylev, Sergey; Grigoryev, Leonid
    Abstract: The global COVID-19 pandemic and an unexpected recession of a dangerous magnitude have provided strong reasons to look at the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) from three points of view: the SDGs as a victim of the recession 2020; the SDGs as an opportunity for better coordination on the way out of recession; and the SDGs as an object of modernization for better adaptation to the realities on “the global ground”. The BRICS countries are, naturally, the primary group of interest for developing and implementing the SDGs on the global scale as a way of catching up. “Pandemic protocol” and additional indicators are proposed as an urgent update to several SDGs.
    Keywords: BRICS, health care, inequality, low carbon, pandemic, recession, SDG
    JEL: F01 F44 F63 F64 O15
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Bautista Lacambra, Sergio
    Abstract: This paper shows some empirical results for the collective labor supply of households in thirteen developed countries (USA, UK, Australia, Canada, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Russia, Japan, and China). I have reviewed a significant number of papers in order to aggregate information for future investigations. Among the conclusions obtained are a gender differential in labor supply when the household includes a child, and a greater level of female household production. This analysis shows that gender differences observed in other literature persist throughout the consulted literature.
    Keywords: Household, collective model, gender differences, labor supply, household production, family taxation.
    JEL: D10 J22 Y10
    Date: 2020–07–03
  9. By: Temel, Tugrul
    Abstract: On the conceptual account, this paper develops a methodology to identify input-output (IO)layers of a targeted sector, drawing on backward and forward multipliers of an IO matrix. On the implementation account, the methodology is applied to a sample of eight countries - China, Japan, India, Russia, Germany, Turkey, UK and USA, which together account for about 60 percent of the world GDP - with a view to characterizing the backward and forward linkages of manufacturing, real estate, wholesale, and accommodation sectors identified by ILO (2020) as key sectors likely to suffer from the highest level of youth unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic. New information is generated for the design of informed employment policy interventions to avoid the unemployment projected. The findings show that manufacturing sector, MA2, is vital for all the countries examined, followed by EST and WHS, and that these three sectors need to be coupled with at least one other sectors to capture the external employment effects from the interacting communities (or clusters).
    Keywords: COVID-19; input-output network analysis; employment policy design; China, Japan, Russia, India, Germany, UK, Turkey, USA;
    JEL: E61 F6 F62 O2 O5 O57
    Date: 2020–08–13
  10. By: Macve, Richard
    Abstract: Purpose: The paper reviews some theoretical approaches that have been adopted for understanding the drivers and achievements of the Chinese professional project and the challenges it faces for the future, as a complement and a contrast to previous histories of China and to studies of other developing economies. Design/methodology/approach: Based mainly on evaluating the information as obtained from the interviews in mainland China, in Hong Kong and in London reported by Macve (2020), complemented by other published histories. Findings: China remains a paradox. Since the “reform and open” policy began in 1978 it has been transformed from one of the poorest countries to one of the economically most powerful in just some 40 years. However it remains (per capita) a “developing country”/”emerging economy” and ideologically a Communist country. While the accounting profession in the USA and UK has developed “from the bottom up” over more than a century and a half, the Chinese profession has effectively been created “from the top down” in under 25 years. The paper outlines alternative theorizations of the major stages in this achievement, in the context of the continuing rapid growth of China's economy and its stock markets, and of the overseas expansion of its manufacturing and increasingly service-oriented base. Research limitations/implications: Space has restricted the analysis here to a general overview. Application of Gramsci's hegemony theory is argued to be inappropriate in the context of understanding China's professional project. Instead, this study is framed within the neo-institutional theory of “linked ecologies” originally developed to examine “Western” developments and extended to the emergence of glocalization, while offering a comparison with related theorization of Russia's post-Communist development. Further theoretical development outside the Western neo-liberal context is called for. Originality/value: The paper demonstrates how accounting and auditing's development in this globally significant context has differed from that in other developing and transitional economies, reflecting in particular the proactive agency of the state. Given China's economic power, fuller understanding of the interrelated factors shaping its development is important for understanding the likely future shaping of the worldwide profession.
    Keywords: Chinese auditing profession; Chinese audit regulation; glocalization; hegemony; linked ecologies
    JEL: M40
    Date: 2020–07–06

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