|
on Confederation of Independent States |
|
Issue of 2020‒09‒07
24 papers chosen by |
| By: | Rostislav, Kirill (Ростислав, Кирилл) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Radchenko, Daria (Радченко, Дарья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In accordance with the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No.204 dated May 7, 2018, on the basis of the spatial development strategy of the Russian Federation, a comprehensive plan for the modernization and expansion of the trunk infrastructure should be developed. At the same time, at present, in Russia, the scientific and methodological substantiation of the goal-setting of the main strategic documents determining the spatial development of the Russian Federation has not been sufficiently developed. The formation of long-term goals and objectives of spatial development is often formed on the basis of individual situational territorial needs, and a scientifically grounded approach to the analysis of scenarios for the spatial development of the economy and the consequences of their implementation when economic conditions change within individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation and in Russia as a whole is poorly developed in Russian practice. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052001&r=all |
| By: | Uspenskiy, Feodor (Успенский, Федор) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The work focuses on historical and philological analysis of representation of political realia, as reflected in terms of kinship and relationship by marriage, in Russian medieval texts (chronicles, hagiography, birch-bark letters, epigraphical writings, acts and law texts). The research resulted in a full corpus of usage of terms of kinship and relationship by marriage in the ancient chronicles. It allowed to demonstrate that the basis for political terminology was made up of kinship terminology. Reconstructing the way in which concepts of kinship and relationship by marriage influenced the perception of social hierarchy required full examination of dynastic and intradynastic marriages which served as one of the principal instruments of forming political alliances in the medieval world. Also, the terminology of mestnichestvo and сult of personal patronal saints was studied as an aspect of family and public devotion of the Russian elites in the 11th – 17th centuries. Comparative analysis of political vocabulary based on kinship concepts in medieval Rus’, Byzantium and the Northern Europe was conducted. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052004&r=all |
| By: | BLINOV, Sergey |
| Abstract: | Today, increasing the growth rate of the Russian economy is more relevant than ever. Consideration of any macroeconomic phenomena that in a historical perspective would provide an economic recovery and increase the economic power of our country is of undoubted interest. One of the important aspects of this problem is the influence of monetary policy and specifically the increase in real money supply on economic growth in a broad historical perspective. The dynamics of the real money supply explains well the rapid growth of the Russian economy in 1999–2008 and the slow one from 2009 to 2019. Some features of monetary policy, in particular ignoring the important role of public debt as a stabilizer of the monetary system, can be considered as causes of economic policy failures in the recent past. From the perspective of a historical analysis of these recent events and a deeper immersion in economic history, we will try to find out what measures in the field of monetary and financial strategies and tactics can most effectively help accelerate Russia's economic development. |
| Keywords: | деньги; история; финансы; теория реальных денег; |
| JEL: | E40 E42 E50 E58 N00 N10 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102386&r=all |
| By: | Aganbegyan, Abel (Аганбегян, Абел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kleeva, Lyudmila (Клеева, Людмила) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Krotova, Nadezhda (Кротова, Надежда) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Krotov, Alexander (Кротов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This work is a generalization of the approaches formulated and used by the authors when constructing the concepts of strategies for the development of a number of regions of Russia, the Republic of Kazakhstan, and Armenia. The work on the construction of the concepts of the strategies of these regions and the generalization of the results of work for each of the regions made it possible to formulate the main mandatory stages of the formation of such strategies: identifying the main directions of the economic and social development of the region, concretizing the development of certain spheres and branches of its national economy, highlighting the key ones, forming a system measures to enhance the development of key areas and industries capable of activating its socio-economic development. The results of the work allow formulating recommendations for the creation of concepts for the development of regions of the CIS countries. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:042040&r=all |
| By: | Voloshinskaya, Anna (Волошинская, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Komarov, Vladimir (Комаров, Владимр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kotsubinskiy, Vladimir (Коцюбинский, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Akimova, Varvara (Акимова, Варвара) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | We have developed a methodology of comparative analysis of strategies of social and economic development of cities and on its basis compared strategies of social and economic development of 22 Russian cities and 13 megacities of the world. The analysis assessed the degree of compliance of the strategic document with the best world practices of territorial and transport planning and sustainable development, which corresponds to the global paradigm of strategic planning based on the target image of the future (vision) of the city. Conclusions are drawn about the differences between Russian and foreign approaches to strategic planning, a wide range of recommendations is proposed to improve the strategies of socio-economic development of Russian cities and improve the regulatory framework. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:042046&r=all |
| By: | Makarova, Anna (Макарова, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ershov, Andrey (Ершов, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kibitkina, N.S. (Кибиткина, Н.С.) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Timoshenko, I.M. (Тимошенко И.М.) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shinkarenko, Petr (Шинкаренко, Петр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The directions of the socio-economic development of the region must correspond to the priority directions of the development of the Russian Federation and be based on the industries in which the region has competitive competencies. In this regard, the task of developing a system of priorities for regional socio-economic development, synchronized with the goals of national projects and based on the competitive advantages of the region, is urgent. To solve this problem, modern tools are needed based on the best domestic and international practices, adapted for use and scaling at the level of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and at the interregional level. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:042044&r=all |
| By: | Titus Corlatean (“Dimitrie Cantemir†Christian University, Bucharest, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) started in January 2020 its work on the draft report entitled: “Ensuring accountability for the downing of flight MH 17†(rapporteur Titus Corlatean, SOC, Romania). The future report will have as main task to inquire about the extent to which countries have carried out investigations required under the European Convention on Human Rights and co-operated with one another as instructed by the United Nations Security Council and to make appropriate recommendations. Essentially, the facts under investigation are related to the shot down of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH 17 over Eastern Ukraine on 17 July 2014, during a decisive phase of the conflict between separatists, backed by Russia, and the Ukrainian military. A first Introductory memorandum was presented by the rapporteur in January 2020 to the PACE Legal Affairs and Human Rights Committee, underlining the key elements of his mandate for ensuring the accountability for the shot down of flight MH 17 and the terrible loss of the life of 283 passengers and 15 crew members. The committee accepted to declassify the memorandum. The main initial conclusions and the guidelines for the future work to finalize the report are presented as follows. |
| Keywords: | flight MH 17, shot down, accountability, European Convention on Human Rights, Ukraine, Russia, Netherlands, separatists, Security Council |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:kpaper:002tc&r=all |
| By: | Belev, Sergey (Белев, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sokolov, Ilya (Соколов, Илья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Suchkova, Olga (Сучкова, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Leonov, Elisey (Леонов, Елисей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Khuzina, Alfiya (Хузина, Альфия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Vekerle, Konstantin (Векерле, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Matveev, Evgeniy (Матвеев, Евгений) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This article presents the main results of research on the topic of theoretical and empirical approaches to assessing the optimality of the tax system in the Russian Federation. The paper provides an overview of international practice of analyzing the effectiveness of tax expenditures. The optimal tax system is based on three basic principles: efficiency (understands how to reduce losses for all individuals with given revenues to the budget), justice (understands how to reduce losses from taxation among individuals) and the quality of services and the inevitability of tax payments. In the framework of this work, according to these criteria, the main types of taxes and excise taxes in the Russian Federation will be analyzed. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:042039&r=all |
| By: | Yuanhong, Hu |
| Abstract: | This paper calculates the trade facilitation index and manufacturing export sophistication of Russia and Central and Eastern European countries from 2003 to 2017, and examines the impact of trade facilitation and R&D innovation on manufacturing export sophistication. The study found that the export sophistication of labor-intensive industries continues to decrease, the export sophistication of capital and technology-intensive industries continues to increase, while the export sophistication of traditional resource-based heavy industries is stable. In addition, trade facilitation and R&D innovation have significantly contributed to the export sophistication of Russia, Central and Eastern European countries, especially the manufacturing industry after the 2009 financial crisis. For Central European and European Union member states, the impact of trade facilitation and R&D innovation on export sophistication is significantly greater than that of Eastern European and non-EU member states. The promotion of heavy, heterogeneous, medium and high-tech industries is obviously stronger than that of light, homogeneous and low-tech industries. In addition, the moderating role of trade dependence cannot be ignored. Trade facilitation and R&D innovation have a significant non-linear impact on export sophistication. |
| Keywords: | Trade Facilitation,Export Sophistication,R&D Innovation,Manufacturing,Russia,Central and Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | F14 F41 F43 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:222927&r=all |
| By: | Hendriks, Johannes Jurgens; Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo |
| Abstract: | Advances in portfolio optimisation techniques have given rise to studies that aim to identify changes in correlation structures between markets in times of economic turmoil. This phenomenon is known as contagion. This article aims at providing a new approach to distinguish between contagion and interdependence, where interdependence occurs when the correlation between two assets is not significantly different in tranquil and turmoil markets. An R-Vine Copula approach is considered to estimate the dependence structures and bivariate copulas between the estimated volatility of different markets. Thereafter, the tail dependence coefficients are estimated and a simulation procedure is used to determine their levels of significance. This article also focuses on contagion and interdependence structures at a sectoral – rather than an aggregated - level of stock exchanges. Thus, this article analyses the contagion and interdependence structures of the Brazilian, Russian, Indian, Chinese, and South African financial, industrial, and resource sectors.The estimated models indicate only a limited amount of contagion and interdependence events. This is in line with other authors who found that the Brazilian, Russian, Indian, Chinese, and South African economies can be seen as a heterogeneous asset class. In cases where there is strong co-movement, interdependence rather than contagion is observed. This suggests that strong market co-movements during periods of financial shock may be a continuation of strong cross-market linkages, i.e. interdependence instead of contagion. |
| Keywords: | contagion, interdependence, R-Vine copula |
| JEL: | C15 C58 G15 |
| Date: | 2020–08–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102473&r=all |
| By: | Talapina, Elvira (Талапина, Эльвира) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Южаков, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Dvinskikh, Daria (Двинских, Дарья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Efremov, Aleksey (Ефремов, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Chereshneva, Irina (Черешнева, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Within the framework of this work, the actual state of data turnover in public administration and its legal regulation in Russia and abroad, the risks of developing data turnover, and existing legal restrictions have been analyzed. The features and possibilities of legal regulation of data circulation in public administration, focused on increasing its effectiveness and efficiency, in relation to the stages of the management cycle and types of public functions are revealed. This made it possible to formulate proposals for the formation of a comprehensive legal regulation of data turnover in public administration. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:042043&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | With the appointment of a new government, a lively debate has ensued about redirecting fiscal policies in support of a balanced revenue-raising strategy that is conducive to investment and growth. Currently, Armenia needs to raise more revenues in support of fiscal consolidation and to generate additional funding for developing and maintaining the physical infrastructure with special reference to the need of improving the urban built-up environment. Since the Authorities requested the mission to consider tax measures that are supportive of growth and/or tradeable sector, the proposed restructuring of taxes recognizes that real estate taxes, resource rent taxes, and broad-based consumption taxes (VAT and excises) are least distortive for growth. The 2016 Technical Assistance Mission in its report reviewed already unutilized tax bases as far as excises are concerned (taxation of gambling, mobile air time, waste packaging taxes, alcohol and tobacco taxation). As requested by the authorities, this mission focused on improving personal and business income taxes, presumptive taxation, and the recurrent real estate tax as base-broadening of the latter could support the fiscal program of the new government. |
| Keywords: | Recurrent taxes on immovable property;Tax revenue;Tax reforms;Tax incentives;Fiscal policy;tax expenditure,progressivity,tax regime,value-based,tax rate |
| Date: | 2019–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/031&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | A technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted during June 18–22, 2018 to support the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (SSSU) in improving the residential property price indexes (RPPI) for Ukraine. This was the second of a series of SECO2 RPPI-funded TA missions to take place until mid-2019 that will assist in building staff capacity for further development of the RPPI. RPPIs have been identified as critical ingredients for financial stability policy analysis. The indexes are used by policy makers as an input into design of macroprudential policies, that is, those policies aim to reduce systemic risks arising from “excessive” financial procyclicality (such as asset bubbles). RPPIs are also used by policy makers to inform monetary policy and inflation targeting. |
| Keywords: | Technical assistance missions;Housing prices;Price indexes;Technical Assistance Reports;Asset bubbles;Real sector;Inflation targeting;Hedonic regression;secondary market,stratification,outlier,primary market,imputation |
| Date: | 2019–01–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/013&r=all |
| By: | Dobrolyubova, Elena (Добролюбова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the experience of international organizations and foreign countries in the development of performance indicators and efficiency of digitalization of public administration. On the basis of foreign experience, taking into account the provisions of Russian strategic and program documents, an integrated approach to assessing the end effects of digitalization of public administration that is significant for key stakeholders - citizens, business, the state and civil servants is justified. The system of indicators of the effectiveness and efficiency of digitalization of public administration presented in the work can be used in monitoring the implementation of the federal project "Digital Public Administration". |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:042042&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This Selected Issues paper takes stock of the current level of dollarization, both in historic and international perspective. By looking at recent measures and international best practice, it draws some recommendations for a successful de-dollarization framework. Belarus has a high level of loan and deposit dollarization as a result of repeated external crises and hyperinflation. Dollarization in Belarus is much higher than many other countries, accounting for various drivers of dollarization. Dollarization has been decreasing but it is still higher than a decade ago. The authorities have been taking welcome steps to liberalize the foreign exchange (FX) market, such as, for example, eliminating the FX surrender requirement and easing the registration procedure for FX transactions. An overarching and publicly communicated national strategy to de-dollarize the economy is a missing piece of the puzzle. Such a strategy would be an important signaling and commitment device and would help educate borrowers about the risks (private and social) of FX borrowing. The strategy would contain an operational roadmap that would also ensure the coherence of existing policies, and coordinate policy and operational steps. |
| Keywords: | Dollarization;Macroprudential policies and financial stability;Capital markets;Currencies;Monetary policy;Selected issues;Central banks;Financial crises;Lender of last resort;Interest rates on loans;Financial markets;local currency,domestic currency,unhedged,borrower,recent measure |
| Date: | 2019–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/010&r=all |
| By: | Shmaliy, Oksana (Шмалий, Оксана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Grechkina, Olga (Гречкина, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Biksitova, Zhanna (Бикситова, Жанна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Dushakova, Lesya (Душакова, Леся) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sushkova, Olga (Сушкова, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Margiev, Andrey (Маргиев, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | One of the main tasks of the state at the present stage is the development of a clear concept for the development of innovative technologies in socially significant areas of life. The successful implementation of this concept is mediated by an understanding of the technological component that determines the operation of algorithms encoded in software, and legal support of innovative digital technologies. The rapid processes of the emergence and spread of new digital technologies in the economic turnover and, above all, in the financial sphere, dictate the need to increase the role of the state in the legislative support of their regulation and implementation. In this regard, actual monitoring of the latest digital technologies is in demand with the development of legal models for their adaptation to Russian conditions. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:042041&r=all |
| By: | Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University) |
| Abstract: | Juridical facts in the binding field are represented by the grounds for termination of the obligations. However, contractual obligation may be a juridical fact by itself, by which means proprietary interests in property, ownership right are forfeited, proprietary rights, as well as obligations, are limited. Thus, obligation or its particular part can be a juridical fact which changes or completes another obligation in other legal relations. Grounds for termination of the contractual relationships can be found in Chapter 50 of the Civil Code of Ukraine and described in twelve articles. Such grounds include: a) termination of the obligation by performance (Art. 599); b) termination of the obligation by accord and satisfaction (Art. 600); c) termination of the obligation by offsetting (Art. 601); d) termination of the obligation upon the parties' consent (Art. 604); e) termination of the obligation by debt relief (Art. 605); f) termination of the obligation by confusion of debts (art. 606); g) termination of the obligation by impossibility of performance (Art. 607); h) termination of the obligation with the physical person's death (Art. 608); and i) termination of the obligation with the liquidation of a legal entity. All these grounds can be conveniently classified into two groups: subjective, that is such depending on the will of the parties to an agreement or other participants in civil-law relations and therefore being juridical facts – actions by their nature (unilateral repudiation, due performance, accord and satisfaction agreement, offset of liabilities, agreement of the parties, novation, debt relief), and objective – not depending on the will of the participants in civil-law relations and thus juridical facts – actions (confusion of debts, impossibility of performance, physical person's death, liquidation of a legal entity). It is characteristic that according to Art. 598 of the Civil Code of Ukraine this list is not non-exhaustive, and therefore, in theory the agreement may establish other grounds for termination of obligations, which will be different from those specified in Chapter 50 of the Civil Code of Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Contract,Contracts law,Obligations,Law of obligations,terminations of law |
| Date: | 2020–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02876670&r=all |
| By: | Alexandre Fedorovski (New York, NY,) |
| Abstract: | This theoretical and applied sociological research is devoted to an extremely complex and important problem that is increasingly faced by both multinational countries and federations, and the world community. This problem is the correlation of the principles of "self-determination" and "territorial integrity" in the modern world, caused by the growing relevance of the systemic changes in state and international legal systems. The immediate object of applied sociological research is the six-year-old civil war in the south-east of Ukraine, the Donbas, and to some extent - the Transdniestria. In political journalism and in the scientific literature, the reasons and internal motivation, the driving forces of the secession self-determination, in the vast majority of cases receive an inadequate, distorted politicized picture of what is really happening there. The general object of this study is the phenomenon of national self-determination as an integral part of the cultural, economic and political life of the present multi-subject social organism. The subject of the research are the causes of the getting momentum centrifugal tendencies, activating from a "sleeping state" in the Eastern and Western Ukrainian regions, as well as in a number of other multi-subject political and economic entities (states and unrecognized "independent" territories). The isomorphic phenomena take place in a number of other regions of the world. The purpose of this study is to create an optimal derivative model of these processes for the purposes of foreseeing and the efficient positive prophylactics of the forthcoming political conflicts of future. |
| Keywords: | self-determination, territorial integrity, failing state, the Donbas, Transdniestria, conflicts, Transcarpathian region, centrifugal tendencies, generative parse tree model, multinational state, minority memory, historical memory, ethnic/social self-awareness, human rights, opinio juris |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:spaper:030af&r=all |
| By: | Grigoryev, Leonid; Makarov, Igor; Sokolova, Anna; Pavlyushina, Victoria; Stepanov, Ilya |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, economic growth in developing economies and the growth of the middle class lead to a surge in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Within the framework of the United Nations (UN) sustainable development goals established in 2015, the solution to poverty and inequality thus comes into conflict with climate change mitigation. The existing international system of climate regulation does not address this contradiction. Today, global climate governance relies on estimates of aggregate emissions by countries without considering their level of development and the distribution of emissions among income groups within each country. Emissions from production are being monitored, while consumption-related emissions, albeit known to experts, rarely underlie decision-making. Meanwhile, income distribution has a higher impact on consumption-based emissions in comparison to production-based ones. Decisions on emissions regulation are made at the national level by countries with different development agendas in which climate change mitigation often gets less priority in comparison to other socio-economic objectives. This paper proposes a set of principles and specific mechanisms that can link climate change and inequality within a single policy framework. First, we highlight the need to modify the global emission monitoring system for the sake of accounting for emissions from consumption (rather than production) by income groups. Second, we suggest the introduction of a new redistribution system to address climate change which would include the imposition of a “fine” on households with the highest levels of emissions. Such a system follows the principles of progressive taxation but supports climate mitigation objectives and should be understood not as taxation of high incomes but rather as payment for a negative externality. Third, we outline the need to adjust climate finance criteria; priority should be given to projects designed to reduce carbon-intensive consumption by social groups entering the middle class, or to help the poorest population groups adapt to climate change. A special role in the implementation of these principles may belong to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which may view this as an opportunity for a proactive transition to inclusive, low-carbon development. |
| Keywords: | climate change; inequality; energy consumption; greenhouse gas emissions; sustainable development |
| JEL: | Q56 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102346&r=all |
| By: | Kaukin, Andrei (Каукин, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kosarev, Vladimir (Косарев, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a method for conditional forecasting of the economic cycle taking into account industry dynamics. The predictive model includes a neural network auto-encoder and an adapted deep convolutional network of the «WaveNet» architecture. The first function block reduces the dimension of the data. The second block predicts the phase of the economic cycle of the studied industry. A neural network uses the main components of the explanatory factors as input. The proposed model can be used both as an independent and an additional method for estimating the growth rate of the industrial production index along with dynamic factor models. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052019&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses results of a technical assistance report prepared to evaluate the quality of Armenia’s public investment institutions in the planning, budgeting, and implementation stages of public investment management. Significant gaps exist in the efficiency of public investments, both in terms of physical outputs and quality. The report also highlights that in a context of limited fiscal space, the scaling up of public investments will require the prioritization of efforts to introduce reforms in the following areas in need of urgent action. The recommendations in this report prioritize the eight actions at the key stages of the project cycle and for the Ministry of Finance’s capacity development. Recommendation is also made to establish a constraint on in-year changes in project implementation plans and complete the transformation of the Audit Chamber from the Control Chamber. Armenia is expected to have a more robust audit function when the provisions in the new Law on the ‘Audit Chamber’ are fully implemented. |
| Keywords: | Accounting standards;Accounting systems;Accrual accounting;Audit process;Auditing;Bank accounting;Budget approval;Budget classification;Budget deficits;Budget execution;Budget financing;Budget preparation;Budget programs;Budget reporting;Budget support;Budgetary process;Budgeting;Budgeting for investments;Budgets;Capital;Capital budget;Capital expenditure;Capital revenue;Capital stocks;Cash management;Central banking;Central banks;Commercial banks;Commodity prices;Consumption;Contingent liabilities;Crowding out;Current expenditure;Debt;Debt management;Debt reduction;Debt service;Debt sustainability;Depreciation;Development;Development financing;Development planning;Development plans;Development strategy;Economic analysis;Economic functions;Economic growth;Economic indicators;Economic sectors;Economic stabilization;Emerging markets;Energy resources;Energy sector;Exchange rate depreciation;Exchange rates;Expenditures;External audit;External borrowing;Financial analysis;Financial crises;Financial infrastructure;Financial management information systems;Fiscal framework;Fiscal policy;Fiscal projections;Fiscal reporting;Fiscal risk;Fiscal rules;Fiscal transparency;Functional classification;Fund reserves;Government accounting;Government expenditures;Government finance statistics;Gross domestic product;Health indicators;Human capital;Inflation;Infrastructure;Institutional framework;Internal audit;Investment;Legislation;Market economies;Military expenditures;Money;National accounts;National budgets;Performance audit;Poverty;Prices;Private investments;Private sector;Production;Program budgeting;Program classification;Public corporations;Public debt;Public finance;Public investments;Public procurement;Public sector;Public services;Public welfare;Public-private partnership;Recurrent budget;Revenue sources;Social benefits;Social welfare programs;Statistics;Sustainable development;financed project,PPPs,outturn,percent of GDP,public investment |
| Date: | 2019–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2019/033&r=all |
| By: | SaidkarimovaSaodatSaidkamalovna |
| Abstract: | At the current time, the trends of investment are rapidly increasing as a result of the ongoing globalization of world economy, the widespread trade relations, the relative liberalization of tax policies and regimes in the countries. The experience of developed countries confirms that the active investment policy occupies a central place in their economic growth. Therefore, the full socio-economic development of our country requires to be fully reflected in its investment policy. Key Words: “Megapolis Education”Uzbekistan, Tashkent. Policy |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2020-34-05&r=all |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the United States and Russia will expire in February 2021 unless both parties agree to an extension. That treaty places limits on the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems that each country may field. CBO examined what the costs would be if the New START Treaty expired and the United States increased its deployed strategic nuclear forces to the levels specified in the earlier Moscow, START II, or START I treaties. |
| JEL: | D74 F51 F52 F53 H41 H56 H57 L64 N40 N42 N44 N62 N64 N72 N74 Q48 |
| Date: | 2020–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:56475&r=all |
| By: | Cem Cakmakli; Yasin Simsek |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized autoregressive score modelling structure designed for the typically daily count data related to pandemic. The resulting specification permits a flexible yet parsimonious model structure with a very low computational cost. This is especially crucial at the onset of the pandemic when the data is scarce and the uncertainty is abundant. Full sample results show that countries including US, Brazil and Russia are still not able to contain the pandemic with the US having the worst performance. Furthermore, Iran and South Korea are likely to experience the second wave of the pandemic. A real-time exercise show that the proposed structure delivers timely and precise information on the current stance of the pandemic ahead of the competitors that use rolling window. This, in turn, transforms into accurate short-term predictions of the active cases. We further modify the model to allow for unreported cases. Results suggest that the effects of the presence of these cases on the estimation results diminish towards the end of sample with the increasing number of testing. |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2007.02726&r=all |