nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2020‒08‒31
thirteen papers chosen by

  1. Модель зависимости обменного курса рубля от цен на нефть с марковскими переключениями режимов By Polbin, Andrey; Shumilov, Andrei
  2. Cultural hybridization in the Russian car industry By Vincent Montenero; Philippe Very
  3. Monthly Report No. 02/2020 By Vasily Astrov; Nikolay Kondrashov; Liudmila Konovalova; Valeriy Mironov; Leon Podkaminer
  5. Russians' "Impressionable Years": Life Experience during the Exit from Communism and Putin-Era Beliefs By William Pyle
  6. Labor Force Participation of Married Woman in Russia By Salim Turdaliev
  7. Globalization and Female Economic Participation in MINT and BRICS countries By Tolulope T. Osinubi; Simplice A. Asongu
  8. Development at the institutional level of didactic and psychological-pedagogical tools for assessing metasubject educational results of students in lesson and extracurricular activities By Tarasova, Natalia (Тарасова, Наталья); Pastukhova, Irina (Пастухова, Ирина); Chigrina, Svetlana (Чигрина, Светлана)
  9. The effect of spatial concentration on the business performance in various types of Russian cities By Andrey Pushkarev; Oleg Mariev; Natalia Davidson
  10. Republic of Belarus; Technical Assistance Report-Enhancing Monetary Policy Modeling Capacity, Monetary Policy Implementation, and the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System By International Monetary Fund
  11. Overinvestment and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from Renewable and Non-Renewable Resource Firms By Denny IRAWAN; OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi
  12. Global Value Chains and Productivity: Micro Evidence from Estonia By Hang T. Banh; Philippe Wingender; Cheikh A. Gueye
  13. Materials World Congress on Business and Finance Management WCBFM - 2020 (05-07 January 2020 - Berlin, Germany)// OPEN EUROPEAN ACADEMY OF PUBLIC SCIENCES OU, Estonia: Editor Alexander Kudryashov - 84 P. By , OEAPS

  1. By: Polbin, Andrey; Shumilov, Andrei
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between the Russian ruble/US dollar exchange rate and global oil prices using autoregressive model with Markovian regime shifts. Empirical analysis on daily data for 2009–2019 shows that exchange rate dynamics is best described by three regimes, characterized as follows: 1) weak exchange rate reaction to oil price shocks – low conditional volatility of exchange rate changes; 2) strong reaction – moderate volatility; 3) strong reaction – high volatility. Regime 3 covers crisis periods, when ruble depreciated substantially. Regime 1 prevailed during the period of managed exchange rate arrangement lasted until November 2014. After adoption of a floating exchange rate and inflation targeting policy, regime 1 became regularly identified since mid-2017. This result can be attributed to the introduction in 2017 of a new budget rule, aimed to reduce dependence of exchange rate on oil price fluctuations. Switches between regimes could also be due to fluctuations in the uncertainty measured by the indices of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty for Russia. It is also shown that the model with three regimes outperforms the random walk and linear models of the ruble exchange rate in an out-of-sample fit exercise. The proposed model can be used for identifying the current exchange rate regime in real time, scenario analysis of the consequences for the ruble exchange rate under alternative oil price trajectories, as well as in developing strategies for hedging currency risks by the private sector.
    Keywords: exchange rate; Russian ruble; oil prices; autoregressive Markov regime switching model; out-of-sample fit
    JEL: C22 C51 E58 F31 Q43
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Vincent Montenero (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, CEFRES - Centre Français de Recherche en Sciences Sociales - MEAE - Ministère de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Philippe Very (Hellebore Capital Management)
    Abstract: How should foreigners manage a partnership or an acquisition in Russia? We know a lot about Russian culture per se, but research on foreign companies having to deal with Russia remains scarce. To answer our question, we used the concept of nationally-bound administrative heritage to identify how foreign practices are efficiently implemented in Russia in the context of partnerships and acquisitions. We interviewed 16 Russian managers working in the car industry about their perception of foreign practices and how things ought to be done. Our investigations show the maintenance of a strong national culture that generates a need to cope with uncertainty for foreign firms. For local people, Russia is a particular country, not comparable to others. When transferring practices, foreign managers need to organize hybridization processes in order to successfully import these practices. Hybridization means transferring but adapting in order to impregnate them with the Russian specificity. Such hybridization requires foreign managers to work and network locally for the implantation of practices.
    Abstract: Comment les entreprises étrangères devraient-elles géraer les partenariats ou acquisitions en Russie ? Tandis que la culture russe en soi est bien connue, les rechreches sur la façon dont les entreprises étrangères s'implantent en Russie demeurent rares. Nous utilisons le concept d'héritage administratif nationalement déterminé afin d'identifier les modes d'implantation des pratiques étrangères efficaces en Russie. Basée sur 16 entretiens avec des managers russes de l'industrie automobile portant sur leur perception des pratiques étrangères et leurs recommendations, notre enquête démontre la persistance d'une culture nationale forte qui pousse les individus à chercher à compenser l'incertitude générée par les entreprises étrangères. Pour les personnels locaux, la Russie est un pays singulier qui ne peut être comparé aux autres. Lors du transfert de pratiques, les cadres étrangers doivent aménager une hybridation des processus afin que ces pratiques puissent être importées avec succès. Par hybridation nous entendons, certes un transfert, mais une adaptation permettant d'absorber les spécificités russes. Une telle hybridation nécessite que les cadres étrangers travaillent en réseau lors des implantations.
    Keywords: Administrative heritage,Russia,Hybridization,Car industry,Industrial localization,Industrie automobile,Russie,Hybridation culturelle,Localisation industrielle,Entreprise étrangère
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Nikolay Kondrashov; Liudmila Konovalova; Valeriy Mironov; Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Chart of the month A lost decade for Russian living standards by Vasily Astrov Opinion Corner A case for balanced trade by Leon Podkaminer It is argued that countries following externally balanced growth paths perform best in the long term. It may be in a country’s interest not to indebt itself to others – and not to become a creditor of others. Will restructuring yield acceleration of the Russian economy? by Valeriy Mironov and Liudmila Konovalova The dynamics of Russian GDP over the past five years have been driven, on the one hand, by the accelerated growth of sectors such as mining, agriculture and some related services, and, on the other, by the decline of the retail and wholesale trade sector, and the slowing dynamics of high-tech industries. Problems calculating gross regional product in Russia by Nikolay Kondrashov Gross regional product (GRP) statistics have limited practical use in Russia because of a long publication lag (14 months), absence of quarterly data, and biased estimates of volume, structure and real growth. For instance, combined GRP for Russia as a whole significantly differs from the country’s GDP, and some components are omitted or grossly underestimated in the country’s GRP calculations. However, this can be improved. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: Real disposable household incomes, Russia, current account imbalances, long-term economic growth, structural change, total factor productivity, Kaldor-Verdoorn’s law, gross regional product, gross domestic product, regional specialisation
    Date: 2020–02
  4. By: Andrey Pushkarev (Ural Federal University); Anna Sennikova (Ural Federal University); Oleg Mariev (Ural Federal University)
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the analysis of several firm performance indicators for estimating market selection forces on the industrial level by using econometric estimation method. For the comparison we employ data on Russian manufacturing firms for the period from 2006 to 2017. The sample contains more than 79 thousand enterprises for a period of 2 to 12 years. This research is focused on such performance indicators as labor productivity, total factor productivity (TFP) and profit per employee. We compare results of the econometrical examination of the link between each of them and the firm growth. The main result implies that the bulk of the impact of productivity variables relates to efficiency changes more than to absolute differences of productivity levels across firms. Comparing three performance indicators we see that the median values of total explanatory ability are close for the labor productivity and total factor productivity. This holds true also on the level of individual industries. The results for profit per employee provide slightly higher median estimate. The research shows that such indicator as profit of the firm can well substitute labor productivity indicator in the market selection and competition research.
    Keywords: productivity, market selection, Russian firms
    JEL: L11 D40
  5. By: William Pyle
    Abstract: This article links Russians’ individual experiences during the late-Gorbachev and early-Yeltsin years to the beliefs those same individuals espoused in the Putin era, over a decade later. Drawing on questions, some of which are retrospective, from the first wave of the Life in Transition Survey, I show that a range of attitudes – including diminished support for markets and democracy and stronger support for reducing inequality – can be explained by whether an individual suffered labor market hardships (wage cuts, arrears, and/or unemployment) in the half decade from 1989 to 1994. More recent labor market disruptions, surprisingly, bear no such relationship to beliefs in 2006. Relative to the rest of the former Soviet Union, this pattern is unique. Though an explanation is difficult to pin down, one speculative hypothesis is that Russians were uniquely impressionable during this exit-from-communism period. Individual economic hardship, in conjunction with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, may have been particularly disorienting for those living in the country in which communism first took root. Life experiences during these years of instability, uncertainty, and diminished status may have left a uniquely deep and enduring impression.
    Keywords: Russian, endogenous beliefs
    JEL: A13 D91 P26
    Date: 2020
  6. By: Salim Turdaliev (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: Women make up a little over half the world’s population, but their contribution to the labor force is far below its potential, with serious macroeconomic consequences. Despite a recent progress, labor markets across the globe remain divided along gender lines, and female LFP remains lower than the participation of their male counterparts. This paper assesses the determinants of labor force participation of married woman in Russia, using data obtained from Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). The study employs two-step Heckman selection model whose major function is to give unbiased estimators of the parameters of the wage function, which could serve to estimate parameters of a structural equation of participation. Two types of proxies (the presence of children and household income characteristics) that affect the married female’s opportunity cost of working but do not generate sample selection mechanisms are used in order to overcome the identification problem in the first-stage wage equation. The estimated semi-elasticity of married female participation to wage is equal to 0.24. The findings of the study also indicate that such factors as gender, age, the presence of dependent children, educational attainment, location and the religious affiliation are the significant determinants of the LFP. The income of the other household members, and race of the respondent, on the other hand, proved to be insignificant determinants of labor supply. As a result, the empirical evidence provided by this project can be useful in future assessments of current social security and employment policies implemented in transition economies.
    Keywords: female labour supply, economic transition, Russian labour market
    JEL: J21 J22 J31
    Date: 2020–08
  7. By: Tolulope T. Osinubi (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon)
    Abstract: This study examines the effect of globalization on female economic participation (FEP) in MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria & Turkey) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa) countries between 2004 and 2018. Four measures of globalization are employed and sourced from KOF globalization index, 2018, while the female labour force participation rate is a proxy for FEP. The empirical evidence is based on Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimators. The findings of the PMG estimator from the Panel ARDL method reveal that political and overall globalization in MINT and BRICS countries have a positive impact on FEP, whereas social globalization exerts a negative impact on FEP in the long-run. It is observed that economic globalization has no long-run effect on FEP. Contrarily, all the measures of globalization posit no short-run effect on FEP in the short-run. This supports the argument that globalization has no immediate effect on FEP. Thus, it is recommended that both MINT and BRICS countries should find a way of improving the process of globalization generally to empower women to be involved in economic activities. This study complements the extant literature by focusing on how globalization dynamics influence FEP in the MINT and BRICS countries.
    Keywords: Globalization; female; gender; labour force participation; MINT and BRICS countries
    JEL: E60 F40 F59 D60
    Date: 2020–08
  8. By: Tarasova, Natalia (Тарасова, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pastukhova, Irina (Пастухова, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Chigrina, Svetlana (Чигрина, Светлана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The modernization and development of Russian education is a consequence and an objective response to the challenges of the time, dynamic transformations in society, economy, politics, as well as global educational trends, accompanied by significant changes in pedagogical theory and practice of education. In the process of professional pedagogical activity of teachers, difficulties arise in assessing and interpreting the new educational results achieved by students, especially metasubject (universal educational actions) and personal ones, which are formed and developed not only in the learning process, but also in various types of extracurricular activities, including intellectual types sports (chess, computer games, e-sports, etc.). The activities of teachers are complicated by the fact that in domestic, as well as in international approaches and systems for assessing metasubject educational results, the terminological apparatus has not been established and there are many approaches to defining the essence of the concepts of “metasubject” and “Metasubject educational outcomes”. The study "Development of didactic and psychological-pedagogical tools for assessing metasubject educational results of students in classroom and extracurricular activities" is aimed at solving this problem.
    Date: 2020–05
  9. By: Andrey Pushkarev (Ural Federal University); Oleg Mariev (Ural Federal University); Natalia Davidson (Ural Federal University)
    Abstract: This paper empirically analyzes the effect of spatial concentration of economic activities on enterprise productivity, using Russian firm-level data. Panel data allows us to control for endogeneity biases associated with estimation of agglomeration economies, using fixed effects method. Our results show that Russian firms benefit from the share of similar enterprises in the total city revenue and urbanization, also that these advantages differ by city type. We also find a lack of connection between the level of wages and the revenues of firms for cities within agglomerations (while for other types of cities this effect is significant and positive). We assume that this is primarily due to the role of the agglomeration center, which determines the level of wages in all cities of the agglomeration. The results show that for the optimal development of territories it is necessary to pursue a diversified regional policy.
    Keywords: spatial concentration, localization, urbanization, home market potential, Russian cities
    JEL: D24
  10. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The NBRB has made substantial progress in improving its forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS) and integrating it into monetary policy decision-making. The FPAS, and the model-based forecasts and policy analysis, is now well integrated into the policy-making process. Staff are well trained and have become experienced in using the tools developed for policy analysis and forecasting. The forecasting and decision-making process is well structured and has helped increase the two-way interaction between staff and the NBRB board—additional and less formal interaction between staff and board members in between the formal meetings may help enhance the process further.
    Keywords: Bank rates;Fiscal sector;Market interest rates;Central banks;Open market operations;ISCR,CR,external communication,interbank,RMP,medium-term,near-term
    Date: 2020–06–29
  11. By: Denny IRAWAN; OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi
    Abstract: Investment is an inherent component of business activities. This study examines the tendency of resource firms to overinvest induced by the business cycle and uncertainties. The analysis is conducted using unbalanced panel data drawn from 584 resource companies across 32 countries covering 1986 to 2017 in four resource sectors: (1) alternative energy, (2) forestry and paper, (3) mining, and (4) oil and gas producers. The results indicate that the forestry and paper sector overinvests relative to the standard investment level predicted by the investment function regardless of the sample period, while the alternative energy sector tends to underinvest. Also, many emerging economies, including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, and South Korea, are found to have overinvested over the last three decades or so. In addition, the results suggest that commodity price inflation plays a more important role in inducing firms' overinvestment than commodity price uncertainty. It is also found that the home country's business cycle significantly affects overinvestment, with the sign alternating from negative to positive after the global financial crisis. Furthermore, the finding also shows no significant relationship between global geopolitical risk and overinvestment but a significantly positive relationship is found between global economic and country-level governance policy uncertainties and overinvestment. Lastly, the results suggest that the effect of overinvestment on firm performance after three years is positive, especially for firms in the mining sector.
    Date: 2020–06
  12. By: Hang T. Banh; Philippe Wingender; Cheikh A. Gueye
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented collapse in global economic activity and trade. The crisis has also highlighted the role played by global value chains (GVC), with countries facing shortages of components vital to everything from health systems to everyday household goods. Despite the vulnerabilities associated with increased interconnectedness, GVCs have also contributed to increasing productivity and long-term growth. We explore empirically the impact of GVC participation on productivity in Estonia using firm-level data from 2000 to 2016. We find that higher GVC participation at the industry level significantly boosts productivity at both the industry and the firm level. Frontier firms, large firms, and exporting firms also benefit more from GVC participation than non-frontier firms, small firms, and non-exporting firms. We also find that GVC participation of downstream industries has a negative correlation with productivity. Frontier firms and large firms benefit more from GVC participation of upstream industries, while non-frontier firms and small firms benefit more from GVC participation of downstream industries. Our results suggest that policies designed to promote participation in GVCs are important to raise aggregate productivity and potential growth in Estonia.
    Date: 2020–07–03
  13. By: , OEAPS
    Abstract: Event materials WCBFM-2020 Berlin, Germany. The Congress was held on January 5-7, 2020 and was dedicated to discussing the latest trends in business and financial management. WCBFM is a place of interaction between business people, financial experts, investors and stakeholders, where they meet, come together and discuss current industry trends and create business associations. The congress is aimed at the possibility of cooperation between the main researchers in business in order to give an idea of ​​trading ideas and their application. In WCBFM, the thematic area is mainly focused on financial management, economics and business, which include government, political science, etc. The aim of the congress is to bring together leading academics, politicians, businessmen, independent scientists and researchers to share their knowledge, new ideas, as well as discuss future development in these areas. WCBFM provides an opportunity for young researchers, academics and practitioners with interdisciplinary interests related to financial management, economics and business to meet and chat with members inside and outside their own disciplines.
    Date: 2020–05–11

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