nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2020‒08‒10
27 papers chosen by

  1. Competence and functions of the Mission of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea By Anatoliy Kostruba
  2. Federal tools for implementing the spatial development strategy of Russia (on the example of pilot regions) By Grishina, Irina (Гришина, Ирина); Kotov, Alexander (Котов, Александр); Polynev, Andrei (Полынев, Андрей); Shkuropat, Anna (Шкуропат, Анна)
  3. Analysis of new approaches to the formation of predictors of financial and economic crises based on indicators of financial markets By Danilov, Yuriy (Данилов, Юрий); Pivovarov, Danil (Пивоваров, Данил); Davydov, Igor (Давыдов, Игорь)
  4. A study of the determinants of financial development in the Russian Federation By Danilov, Yuriy (Данилов, Юрий); Pivovarov, Danil (Пивоваров, Данил); Davydov, Igor (Давыдов, Игорь)
  5. Analysis of the impact of the development of transport infrastructure on foreign trade activities of enterprises By Salimova, Dina (Салимова, Дина); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий)
  6. Monthly Report No. 01/2020 By Richard Grieveson; Sebastian Leitner; Isilda Mara
  7. Analysis of approaches to determining the optimal level of inflation with inflation targeting By Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena (Синельникова-Мурылева, Елена); Grebenkina, Alina (Гребенкина, Алина); Makeeva, Natalia (Макеева, Наталья)
  8. Development of environmental practices, innovations and initiatives in households and communities of rural Russia By Nikulin, Alexander (Никулин, Александр)
  9. No Need for New Natural Gas Pipelines and LNG Terminals in Europe By Franziska Holz; Claudia Kemfert
  10. Economic Crises and Mortality Among the Elderly. Evidence from Two Russian Crises By Evgeny Yakovlev; Margarita Khvan; Elizaveta Smorodenkova
  11. Development of the concept of creating a system of pre-trial dispute resolution (national contact center) in Russia in violation of the standards of responsible business conduct of the OECD By Levashenko, Antonina (Левашенко, Антонина); Ermokhin, Ivan (Ермохин, Иван)
  12. The effects of oil prices on equity market returns in BRICS grouping: A quantile-on-quantile approach By Mabanga, Chris; Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo
  13. Quel monde associatif en période de Covid-19 ? Un panorama des situations et problématiques associatives sous confinement By Edith Archambault
  14. Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates By David Coady; Ian Parry; Nghia-Piotr Le; Baoping Shang
  15. Development of a concept for the development of the legal basis for the use of distributed registry technology in public administration By Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Южаков, Владимир); Talapina, Elvira (Талапина, Эльвира); Efremov, Aleksey (Ефремов, Алексей); Chereshneva, Irina (Черешнева, Ирина)
  16. The Russian State’s Size and its Footprint: Have They Increased? By Gabriel Di Bella; Oksana Dynnikova; Slavi T Slavov
  17. Sustainable strategy for the waste management in Turkmenistan By Korostova, Anna
  18. A Macroeconometric Model for Kazakhstan By Nurdaulet Abilov; Alisher Tolepbergen; Klaus Weyerstrass
  19. You Are Suffocating Me! Firm-Level Evidence on Crowding Out By Serhan Cevik
  20. Pandemics and Oil Shocks By Mohammed, Mikidadu; Barrales-Ruiz, Jose A.
  21. Divided We Stay Home: Social Distancing and Ethnic Diversity By Georgy Egorov; Ruben Enikolopov; Alexey Makarin; Maria Petrova
  22. Crop residues are a key feedstock to bioeconomy but available methods for their estimation are highly uncertain By Karan, Shivesh Kishore; Hamelin, Lorie
  23. Job market effects of COVID-19 on urban Ukrainian households By Tymofii Brik; Maksym Obrizan
  24. The Importance of Terms of Trade Shocks: Kazakhstan By Alisher Tolepbergen
  25. Cash Flow at Risk Assessment for the Banking Sector of Georgia By Tamar Mdivnishvili; Shalva Mkhatrishvili; Davit Tutberidze
  26. The persistently high rate of suicide in Lithuania: an updated view By Mariarosaria Comunale
  27. Bridging the COVID-19 Data and the Epidemiological Model using Time Varying Parameter SIRD Model By Cem Cakmaklı; Yasin Simsek

  1. By: Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University)
    Abstract: The authors researched in the article the normative grounds of activities, competence and functions of the Mission of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea that determines its statute and jurisdiction. Special attention was paid to the influence of the Russian aggression to the legal statute of the Mission of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.
    Abstract: У статті досліджено нормативні передумови діяльності, повноваження та функції Представництва Президента України в Автономній Республіці Крим, які визначають його статус та юрисдикцію. Особливу увагу приділено впливу російської агресії на правовий статус Представництва Президента України в Автономній Республіці Крим.
    Keywords: Autonomous Republic of Crimea,internally displaced persons,jurisdiction,President of Ukraine,public service,temporarily occupied territories
    Date: 2018–12–20
  2. By: Grishina, Irina (Гришина, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kotov, Alexander (Котов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Polynev, Andrei (Полынев, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shkuropat, Anna (Шкуропат, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper presents an analysis of foreign experience in the use of tools at the national level for the implementation of projects (strategies) of spatial development; domestic and foreign methodological approaches to the selection of federal instruments for the implementation of spatial development projects, taking into account their industry and territorial characteristics; retrospective analysis of modern Russian practice of using federal tools for the implementation of spatial development projects, taking into account their industry and territorial characteristics. The scientific substantiation of the methodological approach to the selection of federal tools for the implementation of spatial development projects is presented.
    Date: 2020–04
  3. By: Danilov, Yuriy (Данилов, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pivovarov, Danil (Пивоваров, Данил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Davydov, Igor (Давыдов, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper presents the results of the analysis of indicators whose behavior as crisis predictors is actively discussed at the present time. The paper analyzes reasons for the failure of the crisis predictors of the previous generation, which showed their failure in 2007 - 2008. Indices of financial conditions, yield spreads of US treasury bonds, Schiller's ratio, financial cycle indicators, VIX (“fear index”), risk premiums and some other indicators from the “new crisis predictor” family are examined in detail. It was shown that all these indicators are aimed at finding an answer to the question about the time of the beginning of the next crisis, while other parameters of a possible crisis (where, in which country and in which sector of the economy should the crisis begin to be expected; what exactly can happen, which of vulnerabilities have the highest chance of being realized) attract much less attention. Moreover, economic risks are not among the most dangerous risks from the point of view of international financial organizations. We conducted an analysis of the behavior of the proposed crisis predictors on retrospective data, as a result of which we formed their sequence in terms of signaling before the crisis, as well as the influence of external predictors on indicators of Russian economic dynamics and the state of the financial market. It was concluded that along with external shocks, internal factors are of great importance for the start of Russian recessions, on the basis of which the Russian financial conditions index was proposed, which showed good predictor properties. Hypotheses were also formulated about the reasons for the later entry of the Russian economy into the crisis of 2007-2009. and higher volatility of economic dynamics in Russia.
    Date: 2020–04
  4. By: Danilov, Yuriy (Данилов, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pivovarov, Danil (Пивоваров, Данил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Davydov, Igor (Давыдов, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper investigates the problems of determining the main factors (determinants) of financial development, as well as identifying the nature of the influence of these factors on the level of financial development. Based on an analysis of the literature on empirical studies of the impact of indicators of various nature on the characteristics of financial development, as well as theoretical concepts that describe the determinants of financial development, we have compiled a large list of such determinants and divided it into groups. Further, within each group, we conducted a regression analysis of the influence of determinants on the level of financial development, using an intercountry data panel, broken down by group of countries by income level. For the first time, the Financial Development Index, calculated by the IMF, as the best characteristic of financial development, including various aspects of this development, was used as an exogenous variable. Based on the analysis, the most significant (within the relevant groups) determinants of financial development were identified. Applying the results to Russian conditions, we took into account the presence of a number of features of the Russian economy and the Russian financial sector, which generally negatively affect financial development.
    Date: 2020–04
  5. By: Salimova, Dina (Салимова, Дина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The positive effects of transport infrastructure development in the country can be seen in the increase of factor productivity, as well as economic and regional growth. A separate channel of influence of improved infrastructure on the economy is the intensification of foreign trade activities of enterprises by reducing the costs of inclusion in national and international value chains. The Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 204 dated May 7, 2018, singles out the improvement of the transport infrastructure as one of the priority areas of the country's social and economic development. Thus, the study of the impact of infrastructural changes on the foreign trade activities of Russian firms is of particular relevance. This study allows us to assess how the development of in-country transport infrastructure affects regional access to markets. Based on the assessment of the empirical model presented in this paper, we can conclude that a more developed infrastructure of the regions has a positive impact on the value of export flows, and no significant differentiation in the change in regional exports due to the impact of infrastructure improvement in the regions in the period of 2012-2016 was found.
    Date: 2020–04
  6. By: Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Chart of the month Two decades of disappointing convergence in the Western Balkans by Richard Grieveson Opinion Corner Western Balkans caught in a Franco-German fight by Richard Grieveson 2019 was a bad year for the EU accession prospects of the Western Balkans, and it is likely to be many years before even the frontrunners join. The most significant country blocking EU accession is France, and this appears to be part of a bigger conflict with Germany over the future of the EU. Without the realistic prospect of EU accession, there is a risk of backsliding on reforms in the Western Balkans, and the region will remain stuck at a low level of development. Demographic developments in the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine by Isilda Mara The Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine have registered strong population declines over the past two decades, due to both low birth rates and high outward migration. A further decline is expected until 2050 – by up to 35% in the case of Ukraine – resulting in demographic losses that may affect the convergence prospects of these countries. Labour market institutions in the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine by Sebastian Leitner Collective bargaining mechanisms in the Western Balkan countries, Moldova and Ukraine are generally less developed than, for instance, in Austria, and have been weakened since the global financial crisis. On top of that, their range is constrained by the high incidence of informal employment. Employment protection regulations in these countries have been further liberalised and only a small share of jobseekers receive unemployment benefits. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: Western Balkans, convergence, EU, EU accession, France, Germany, demographics, population, migration, Moldova, Ukraine, labour markets
    Date: 2020–01
  7. By: Sinelnikova-Muryleva, Elena (Синельникова-Мурылева, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Grebenkina, Alina (Гребенкина, Алина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Makeeva, Natalia (Макеева, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The purpose of this workpaper is to estimate the range of inflation rates for Russia that are consistent with the concept of optimal inflation, as well as to compare the obtained estimations with the corresponding estimates for other countries and the target value of the Bank of Russia. The first section identifies and analyzes the main factors affecting the optimal lvel of inflation in the framework of theoretical works, including factors determining the positivity of the optimal level of inflation. The second section presents a classification of the main empirical approaches used to estimate the optimal level of inflation and the analysis of their advantages and disadvantages. The third econometric section provides estimations of the threshold level of inflation obtained on various samples of panel data, including Russia. The conclusion summarizes the main results of the workpaper. The results of this workpaper can be used by the Bank of Russia in assessing key parameters of monetary policy, such as the inflation target, as well as for the development of the main directions of the unified state monetary policy.
    Date: 2020–04
  8. By: Nikulin, Alexander (Никулин, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The conducted scientific research is mainly empirical, therefore it is focused on both micro-level – rural households, their traditional and innovative social-economic and social-cultural practices – and macro-level – several cases-regions that differ in the dominant models of rural formal and informal economies, their production-economic practices, and economic-environmental challenges. The study combined quantitative (secondary analysis of sociological and statistical data) and qualitative approaches (case study and “life story”, methods of observation and semi-formalized expert interviews), which allowed to provide an analytical review of traditional and innovative social-economic and environmental practices of rural households, taking into account the regional specifics of the environmental situation, and also to specify the priorities of regional and state policies so that they would support small forms of self-organization of agricultural production and development of rural territories.
    Date: 2020–04
  9. By: Franziska Holz; Claudia Kemfert
    Abstract: Natural gas could play an increasing role in the German energy system following the coal exit decided in July 2020 by the German parliament. However, natural gas has no climate benefit compared to coal. What is more, Europe risks to become a battle-ground for the conflict between Russia and the United States. The construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline Nordstream 2 has set in motion a downward spiral of sanctions and counter-sanctions. US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports compete with Russian gas exports to Europe. While German and European policy makers debate about an appropriate reaction to the US sanctions, we ask which role will US LNG be able to play in the European natural gas market. Model results by DIW Berlin pro- vide first answers. In the long run, however, the European climate policy commitments will lead to a phase-out of fossil natural gas in the wake of the energy transition in the next decades.
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Evgeny Yakovlev (New Economic School); Margarita Khvan (New Economic School); Elizaveta Smorodenkova (New Economic School)
    Abstract: We assess the short-term effects of the two recent economic crises, the Great Recession and the collapse of the USSR, on the elderly mortality in Russia. According to our study, crises have led to an increase in mortality with quantitatively similar elasticities of death with respect to GDP fall for both events. Further analysis of the Great Recession suggests that income depreciation, limited access to medical services, and an increase in alcohol consumption are responsible for the rise in mortality. While increases at a higher rate compared to overall mortality, alcohol-related mortality explains a relatively small part of total mortality rise.
    Keywords: Mortality, health, crisis, RUSSIA, Great Recession
    JEL: H1 I1 J1
    Date: 2020–07
  11. By: Levashenko, Antonina (Левашенко, Антонина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ermokhin, Ivan (Ермохин, Иван) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: In the framework of this work, the concepts of creating a pre-trial dispute resolution system (national contact center) in Russia were analyzed and developed in violation of the standards for responsible business conduct of the OECD. The analysis shows that NCC today affect international trade and investment in terms of market access. At the same time, disputes in the NCC today concern not only environmental issues, but more and more often concern human rights issues. This fact will require the company to pay more attention to taking public opinion into account when implementing projects.
    Keywords: OECD, responsible business, investment, trade, EAEU.
    Date: 2020–04
  12. By: Mabanga, Chris; Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo
    Abstract: This study assesses the effects of the magnitude of oil price shocks i.e. large negative, positive and moderate oil price shocks on equity market returns in BRICS countries during different market circumstances by making use of quantile-on-quantile regression. The current study differs from studies that employ quantile-on-quantile in assessing the relationship between oil price shocks and equity returns in different aspects. Firstly, the study intends to assess how this relationship differs per countries given their factor endowment (i.e. whether they export or import oil) within the BRICS grouping. Secondly, we also differ from Sim Zhou (2015) and Tchatoka et al. (2018) because we introduce the supply shocks by following the same structure as Kilian and Park (2009) but changing the Cholesky decomposition by ordering real oil price first, assuming the contemporaneous response of global production to oil price. The results of the empirical analysis show that distinction should be made between the demand-driven and supply-driven oil price shocks and that the outcome of this relationship depends on whether a country is a net importer or exporter of crude oil. For most of the net oil-importing countries, the low oil price demand shocks, which translate to lower oil prices, further stimulate equity markets when they are at peak. And for oil-producing countries in general, high demand oil price shocks provide an incentive for the expansion of equity markets during bad market conditions.
    Keywords: equity returns, oil price shocks, quantile-on-quantile
    JEL: C21 C58 G15
    Date: 2020–06–29
  13. By: Edith Archambault (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: . Les associations présentes sur l'ensemble du territoire français constituent des réseaux d'interconnaissance et d'entraide essentiels en période de crise. Cependant, le confinement a posé à toutes ces organisations-un problème massif et inédit pour mener à bien leurs missions. Ce panorama a été réalisé dans le cadre d'une étude sur les associations et fondations françaises pour le compte de EU-Russia Civil Society Forum Les associations et fondations ont vécu de manière très différente le confinement selon leurs missions respectives, la présence ou non de personnel salarié et leur statut juridique. Les conséquences de cette situation pour les salariés et les bénévoles qui animent ces structures, mais aussi pour les associations elles-mêmes, tenues de réinventer les outils de leur gouvernance et de renouveler, notamment, le profil de leurs bénévoles. La conclusion esquisse deux scénarios d'avenir pour las organisations de la société civile selon que la vague de solidarité qui est apparue pendant le confinement est éphémère ou durable
    Date: 2020–07
  14. By: David Coady; Ian Parry; Nghia-Piotr Le; Baoping Shang
    Abstract: This paper updates estimates of fossil fuel subsidies, defined as fuel consumption times the gap between existing and efficient prices (i.e., prices warranted by supply costs, environmental costs, and revenue considerations), for 191 countries. Globally, subsidies remained large at $4.7 trillion (6.3 percent of global GDP) in 2015 and are projected at $5.2 trillion (6.5 percent of GDP) in 2017. The largest subsidizers in 2015 were China ($1.4 trillion), United States ($649 billion), Russia ($551 billion), European Union ($289 billion), and India ($209 billion). About three quarters of global subsidies are due to domestic factors—energy pricing reform thus remains largely in countries’ own national interest—while coal and petroleum together account for 85 percent of global subsidies. Efficient fossil fuel pricing in 2015 would have lowered global carbon emissions by 28 percent and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46 percent, and increased government revenue by 3.8 percent of GDP.
    Keywords: Gasoline prices;Consumer subsidies;Sustainable development;Energy prices;Fossil fuels;energy subsidies,efficient taxation,revenue,environment,deadweight loss,post-tax,supply cost,global GDP,efficient price,energy subsidy
    Date: 2019–05–02
  15. By: Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Южаков, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Talapina, Elvira (Талапина, Эльвира) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Efremov, Aleksey (Ефремов, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Chereshneva, Irina (Черешнева, Ирина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: In the framework of this work, foreign and Russian experience in the field of using TPP in public administration is analyzed, tasks are analyzed and segments for the priority use of TPP and its legal regulation are identified, mechanisms for protecting the rights and interests of citizens and legal entities when using TPP in public administration are identified and systematized. Based on the results obtained, a concept has been developed for the development of legal grounds for using distributed registry technology, including blockchain technology, in public administration.
    Date: 2020–04
  16. By: Gabriel Di Bella; Oksana Dynnikova; Slavi T Slavov
    Abstract: The short answer: The size of the Russian State has not increased much in the last few years, but its economic footprint remains significant. Concretely, the state's size increased from about 32 percent of GDP in 2012 to 33 percent in 2016, not far from the EBRD's estimate of 35 percent for 2005-10. This is different from the mainstream narrative, which contends that the state's size doubled in the last decade. However, a deep state footprint is reflected in a relatively high state share in formal sector activity (close to 40 percent) and formal sector employment (about 50 percent). The deep footprint is also reflected in market competition and efficiency. Although sectors in which the state is present are more concentrated, concentration is large even in sectors where the state's share is low. This suggests the need to protect and promote competition, in particular in state procurement. Finally, state-owned enterprises' performance appears weaker than that of privately-owned firms, which may be subtracting from growth.
    Keywords: Economic growth;Social security funds;Total factor productivity;Private investments;Foreign investment;Russian State,State-Owned Enterprises,Transition Economies,state 's share,SOEs,state 's size,economic concentration
    Date: 2019–03–08
  17. By: Korostova, Anna
    Abstract: This study will concentrate on the case of Turkmenistan, newly industrialized country appeared in the world map after the collapse of Soviet Union in early 90ties. Along with other countries they were engaged with the rebuilding of their new economy and the issues of waste management were set apart. In the recent years, the need to adhere to international norms in order to achieve sustainable economic development requires to consider environmental impact of the activities, including in the waste management. Recycling and waste management gained more attention in the country, but there is still a lot of work to do. The aim of this work is to provide a comprehensive overview of waste management in Turkmenistan and to provide recommendations and solutions in order to achieve sustainable development goals, adjusting the existing tools and practices to the case of this country. An increase of share of the circular economy as well as the reduction of disposed waste quantities are considered as the main goal of proposed activities.
    Date: 2020
  18. By: Nurdaulet Abilov (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University); Alisher Tolepbergen (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University); Klaus Weyerstrass (Institute for Advanced Studies, Macroeconomics and Public Finance Group)
    Abstract: The paper builds a structural macroeconometric model for Kazakhstan to generate short-term and medium-term forecasts for main macroeconomic variables and conduct scenario analyses based on dynamic simulation of the model. Due to the poor quality of quarterly data on GDP and its expenditure components, they have been adjusted using volume indexes. The model consists of aggregate supply, aggregate demand, labor market, asset market, the central bank policy and government side equations. Most equations are estimated via econometric techniques and identities are explicitly introduced in line with economic theory. We combine all the regression equations into a single model and solve for the baseline scenario from 2003 to 2017. The simulation results show that the structural macroeconometric model approximates Kazakhstani economy reasonably well. Ex-ante forecasts under oil prices remaining around 50 and 60 US dollars per barrel are generated and compared with the baseline forecast of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
    Keywords: Macroeconometric model; Cowles Commission approach; Forecasting; Simulation.
    JEL: B32 E17 E27
    Date: 2018–12
  19. By: Serhan Cevik
    Abstract: Literature on whether government spending crowds out or crowds in the private sector is large, but still without an unambiguous conclusion. Using firm-level data from Ukraine, this paper provides a granular empirical investigation to disentangle the impact of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on private firm investment in Ukraine—a large transition economy. Controlling for firm characteristics and systematic differences across sectors, the results indicate that the SOE concentration in a given sector has a statistically significant negative effect on private fixed capital formation, and that the impact of SOEs is stronger in those industries in which SOEs have a more dominant presence. These findings imply that private firms operating in sectors with a high level of SOE concentration invest systematically less than businesses that are not competing directly with SOEs.
    Keywords: Economic growth;Private investments;Capital formation;Foreign investment;Public investments;Fixed investment,state-owned enterprises,crowding-out effect,firm-level analysis,SOEs,private fixed investment,given sector,market concentration,SOE
    Date: 2019–04–24
  20. By: Mohammed, Mikidadu; Barrales-Ruiz, Jose A.
    Abstract: At the onset of coronavirus in January 2020, crude oil price was around $51.63 per barrel. But the subsequent spread of the virus across countries all over the world adversely impacted the day-to-day functioning of major industries, corporations, and economies. This adverse impact was amplified by the lockdown measures by governments who were justifiably concerned about the potential devastating effect of the pandemic. As the outbreak intensified, so did oil prices plunge into historic lows (at some point, negative). Is the precipitous drop in oil prices due to the COVID-19 pandemic or are there potentially other factors at play? In this paper, we investigate this question using a pentavariate structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Specifically, we identify an exogenous oil price shock arising from the pandemic together with the traditional underlying supply, demand, and financial market shocks to global crude oil markets. We find that a pandemic shock causes a delayed adverse effect on oil prices. In addition, our findings lend support to the view that changes in financial market conditions that affect financial investment decisions also play a significant role in oil price movements. There is however no evidence of a strong impact emanating from the brief Russia-Saudi price war. We also compute the forecast error variance decomposition and find that the impact of a pandemic shock together with aggregate demand and financial market shocks are not trivial in the short run. Taken together, the findings underscore the fruitfulness of research aimed at better understanding the effects of a pandemic shock on oil price movements and highlight the need for policymakers and market stakeholders to explicitly consider global health conditions when analyzing the causes and consequences of oil price shocks.
    Keywords: pandemic,oil price shocks,structural VAR,novel coronavirus,COVID-19
    JEL: I15 Q41 Q43 Q47
    Date: 2020
  21. By: Georgy Egorov (Northwestern University–Kellogg School of Management and NBER); Ruben Enikolopov (New Economic School, ICREA-UPF, Barcelona IPEG, and Barcelona GSE); Alexey Makarin (EIEF and CEPR); Maria Petrova (ICREA-UPF, Barcelona IPEG, Barcelona GSE, and New Economic School)
    Abstract: Voluntary social distancing plays a vital role in containing the spread of the disease during a pandemic. As a public good, it should be more commonplace in more homogeneous and altruistic societies. However, for healthy people, observing social distancing has private benefits, too. If sick individuals are more likely to stay home, healthy ones have fewer incentives to do so, especially if the asymptomatic transmission is perceived to be unlikely. Theoretically, we show that this interplay may lead to a stricter observance of social distancing in more diverse and less altruistic societies. Empirically, we find that, consistent with the model, the reduction in mobility following the first local case of COVID-19 was stronger in Russian cities with higher ethnic fractionalization and cities with higher levels of xenophobia. For identification, we predict the timing of the first case using pre-existing patterns of internal migration to Moscow. Using SafeGraph data on mobility patterns, we confirm that mobility reduction in the United States was also higher in counties with higher ethnic fractionalization. Our findings highlight the importance of strategic incentives of different population groups for the effectiveness of public policy.
    Date: 2020
  22. By: Karan, Shivesh Kishore (Institut National des Sciences Appliquées, Toulouse); Hamelin, Lorie
    Abstract: Crop residues are acknowledged as a key biomass resource to feed tomorrow’s sustainable bioeconomy. Yet, the quantification of these residues at large geographical scales is primarily reliant upon generic statistical estimations based on empirical functions linking the residues production to the primary crop yield. These useful yet unquestioned functions are developed either using direct evidence from experimental results or literature. In the present study, analytical evidence is presented to demonstrate that these methods generate imprecise and likely inaccurate estimates of the actual biophysical crop residue potential. In this endeavor, we applied five of the most used functions to a national case study. France was selected, being the country with the largest agricultural output in Europe. Our spatially-explicit assessment of crop residues production was performed with a spatial resolution corresponding to the level of an administrative department (96 departments in total), also the finest division of the European Union’s hierarchical system of nomenclature for territorial units (NUTS), and included 17 different crop residues. The theoretical potential of crop residues for the whole of France was found to vary from 987 PJ Y-1 to 1369 PJ Y-1, using different estimation functions. The difference observed is more than the entire annual electricity consumption of Belgium, Latvia, and Estonia combined. Perturbation analyses revealed that some of the functions are overly sensitive to a fluctuation in primary crop yield, while analytical techniques such as the null hypothesis statistical test indicated that the crop residues estimates stemming from all functions were all significantly different from one another.
    Date: 2020–07–29
  23. By: Tymofii Brik; Maksym Obrizan
    Abstract: The employment status of billions of people has been affected by the COVID epidemic around the Globe. New evidence is needed on how to mitigate the job market crisis, but there exists only a handful of studies mostly focusing on developed countries. We fill in this gap in the literature by using novel data from Ukraine, a transition country in Eastern Europe, which enacted strict quarantine policies early on. We model four binary outcomes to identify respondents (i) who are not working during quarantine, (ii) those who are more likely to work from home, (iii) respondents who are afraid of losing a job, and, finally, (iv) survey participants who have savings for 1 month or less if quarantine is further extended. Our findings suggest that respondents employed in public administration, programming and IT, as well as highly qualified specialists, were more likely to secure their jobs during the quarantine. Females, better educated respondents, and those who lived in Kyiv were more likely to work remotely. Working in the public sector also made people more confident about their future employment perspectives. Although our findings are limited to urban households only, they provide important early evidence on the correlates of job market outcomes, expectations, and financial security, indicating potential deterioration of socio-economic inequalities.
    Date: 2020–07
  24. By: Alisher Tolepbergen (NAC Analytica, Nazarbayev University)
    Abstract: The conventional wisdom assumes that terms of trade shocks are the main drivers of business cycle dynamics in emerging exporting economies. This paper studies the effect of terms of trade shocks on key macroeconomic variables for the Kazakhstani economy. Empirical SVAR model estimates suggest that the terms of trade shocks account for 12 % of output variation for the economy. Further, three sectoral DSGE model with estimated structural parameters predict the modest importance of the terms of trade shocks for small open economy.
    Keywords: Terms of Trade; DSGE; SVAR; Kazakhstan
    JEL: B22 C32 C61 E17 E32 F41
    Date: 2019–12
  25. By: Tamar Mdivnishvili (Macroeconomic Research Division, National Bank of Georgia); Shalva Mkhatrishvili (Macroeconomic Research Division, National Bank of Georgia); Davit Tutberidze (Macroeconomic Research Division, National Bank of Georgia)
    Abstract: The aim of our study is to estimate the distribution of the profitability of the Georgian banking sector, in order to determine liquidity risk, for which we use Cash Flow at Risk (CFaR). In our estimation, we took into account possible nonlinear impact of monetary policy on banks' profit, which allows us also to estimate the neutral interest rate. According to our results, the relationship between bank profits on the one hand and short- and long-term interest rates on another is nonlinear indeed. In addition to median estimates, we also use quantile regression, which allows us to estimate tail risks. According to the results in a "normal" (median) situation, when interest rates are below neutral rate, decreasing policy rate reduces banks' profits, while if banks suffer from low liquidity (on a lower percentile), reduction of policy rate increases banks' profits. According to the quantile regression output, the relationship between bank profitability and yield curve is asymmetric. The results also show the dependence of bank liquidity risk on other macro variables. Estimates are made for the entire banking sector as well as for the two largest banks in Georgia.
    Keywords: Quantile regression, Forecasting, Monetary policy, Bank profitability, CFaR
    JEL: C21 C53 E52 G21
    Date: 2020–07
  26. By: Mariarosaria Comunale (Bank of Lithuania)
    Abstract: This article examines possible factors related to the rate of suicide in Lithuania, which is the highest in Europe and one of the highest worldwide. Using statistical methods, we select possible determinants from the literature in the fields of economics, psychology and sociology. We look at annual data from 1994 to 2016 for the Baltic States, with a specific focus on Lithuania. The main factors linked to suicide in the region seem to be GDP growth, demographics, alcohol consumption, psychological factors and global warming. For Lithuania in particular, other macroeconomic variables (especially linked to the labor market) may matter. The percentage of rural population does not seem to be a key robust factor.
    Keywords: Lithuania, suicide rates, mortality, socioeconomic factors, WALS method, Bayesian regression, elastic net
    JEL: I15 I31 J11 J17 O15
    Date: 2020–07–22
  27. By: Cem Cakmaklı (Koc University, Turkey; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis); Yasin Simsek (Koc University, Turkey)
    Abstract: This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized autoregressive score modelling structure designed for the typically daily count data related to pandemic. The resulting specification permits a flexible yet parsimonious model structure with a very low computational cost. This is especially crucial at the onset of the pandemic when the data is scarce and the uncertainty is abundant. Full sample results show that countries including US, Brazil and Russia are still not able to contain the pandemic with the US having the worst performance. Furthermore, Iran and South Korea are likely to experience the second wave of the pandemic. A real-time exercise show that the proposed structure delivers timely and precise information on the current stance of the pandemic ahead of the competitors that use rolling window. This, in turn, transforms into accurate short-term predictions of the active cases. We further modify the model to allow for unreported cases. Results suggest that the effects of the presence of these cases on the estimation results diminish towards the end of sample with the increasing number of testing.
    Keywords: COVID-19, SIRD, Observation driven models, Score models, Count data, time varying parameters
    JEL: C13 C32 C51 I19
    Date: 2020–07

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.