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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2020‒07‒27
eleven papers chosen by |
| By: | Ivan Khotulev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | In this note, we study shock-dependent exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to consumer prices in Russia. First, we estimate a traditional "shock-independent" ERPT on aggregate quarterly time series of the exchange rate, CPI, and control variables. Estimated coefficients confirm previous studies and official statements by the Bank of Russia. Rolling regression in different periods shows that the ERPT becomes more stable and more precisely estimated after 2014-2015 when the Bank of Russia switched to inflation targeting. We compare results with the ERPT from an estimated structural model. We obtain a forecast of macroeconomic time series from a DSGE model conditional on foreign variables observed. We run the same regression on forecasted data and obtain estimates of the "shock-independent" ERPT from the structural model. We compute shock-dependent ERPT from model impulse responses. The magnitude of the ERPT varies for different shocks with the highest value attributed to domestic monetary policy shocks. When estimating the pass-through of the exchange rate to prices, care must be taken of which shock caused changes in the exchange rate. Since monetary policy shocks appear to be associated with the highest ERPT, and the ERPT becomes more stable after 2014-2015, the Russian economy may be reaping an additional benefit of inflation targeting in the form of reduced monetary policy shocks and a more stable ERPT. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate pass-through, monetary policy, Russia |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:note20&r=all |
| By: | Maleva, Tatiana (Малева, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kartseva, Marina (Карцева, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsova, Polina (Кузнецова, Полина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Salmina, Alla (Салмина, Алла) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper makes an empirical analysis of the contribution of inequality of opportunity to inequality of labor / per capita incomes of the population of the Russian Federation. The study is conducted both at the level of the country as a whole, and at the level of some regions. Particular attention is paid to the study of the contribution of inequality of opportunity to the inequality of achievements of individual gender and age groups. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:032041&r=all |
| By: | Yuzhakov, Vladimir (Южаков, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Startsev, Yaroslav (Старцев, Ярослав) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Foreign theory and practice of implementing development policies is of interest to the Russian Federation in terms of both positive and negative lessons. An analysis of scientific studies published in 2010-2018 in English and official documents of international organizations devoted to development policies provides grounds for identifying generalized models for the implementation of such policies, the conditions for their implementation and the possibilities of using foreign experience in Russia. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:032050&r=all |
| By: | Gorshkova, Taisiya (Горшкова, Таисия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Turuntseva, Marina (Турунцева, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to the analysis of existing theoretical models for forecasting regional macro-indicators and the study of the possibility of forecasting Russian data based on the selected theoretical approaches. A comparative analysis of theoretical approaches to modeling regional data is carried out. The approaches considered include diversification indices based on various economic theory, analysis of the possibility of using a composite welfare index as a proxy variable for the economic situation, and application of dynamic and non-linear models to regional data. The study was conducted on data on a set of macro indicators (CPI, GRP per capita, unemployment rate, average per capita income, etc.) in all regions of Russia, as well as for regions united by federal districts and by clusters determined on the basis of theoretical approaches. On the Russian data, various diversification indices were analyzed, and ensembles of neural networks and vector autoregressions were constructed, including taking into account the spatial dependence between the indicators. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:032042&r=all |
| By: | Sałach, Katarzyna; Brzezinski, Michal |
| Abstract: | We use newly collected original panel data on the super-wealthy individuals in Poland (observed over 2002-2018) to study the impact of the rich’s political connections on their wealth level, mobility among the rich and the risk of dropping off the rich list. The multimillionaires are classified as politically connected if we find reliable news stories linking their wealth to political contacts or questionable licenses, or if a person was formerly an informant of communist Security Service or member of the communist party, or when the origins of wealth are connected to the privatization process. We find that political connections are not associated with the wealth level of Polish multimillionaires, but that they are linked to the 20-30% lower probability of upward mobility in the ranking of the rich. Moreover, being a former member of the communist party or secret police informant increases the risk of dropping off the Polish rich list by 79%. Taken together, our results show that, contrary to some other post-socialist countries such as Russia or Ukraine, there is little evidence that the Polish economy suffers from crony capitalism. |
| Date: | 2020–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:u5qbd&r=all |
| By: | Beer, Sonja |
| Abstract: | Im Jahr 1992 sind nach dem Ende der Sowjetunion 15 neue unabhängige Nachfolgestaaten entstanden. Die gesamtwirtschaftliche und finanzielle Lage der Russischen Föderation war damals besonders schwierig und 1998 kam es sogar zu einer schwerwiegenden Finanzmarktkrise. Doch gelang es in den 2000er Jahren, hohe Wachstumsraten von mehr als 5 Prozent zu erzielen, die die wirtschaftliche Kluft zwischen Russland und den Industrieländern verringerten. Dieser Fortschritt wurde jedoch weitgehend durch steigende Ölpreise und nicht durch den Strukturwandel der Wirtschaft unterstützt. Das Land hat immer noch mit einer hohen Korruption, einer mangelnden Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Bürokratie zu kämpfen. Dieses dynamische Wachstum ist vor allem seit dem Jahr 2014 zurückgegangen. In diesem Jahr haben die US-Regierung und die EU als Reaktion auf die russische Annexion von der Halbinsel Krim und der Hafenstadt Sewastopol Sanktionen verhängt. Als Reaktion darauf und aufgrund des gleichzeitigen Rückgangs des Ölpreises versuchte Russland, mit strikten Sparmaßnahmen die makroökonomische Situation zu stabilisieren, den Staatshaushalt zu stärken, mehr Reserven aufzubauen und sich dadurch mehr Unabhängigkeit zu schaffen. Russland wurde auf diese Weise resistenter gegenüber einer globalen Krise, was auch in Zeiten der Corona Krise ein Vorteil ist. Obwohl die gegenseitigen Wirtschaftssanktionen zu einem Einbruch des Handels geführt haben, ist Deutschland einer der wichtigsten Handelspartner Russlands. Die Bundesrepublik war im Jahr 2019 das zweitwichtigste Lieferland und das drittwichtigste Abnehmerland. Obwohl Russland aus deutscher Sicht nicht zu einem der wichtigsten Handelspartner zählt, ist es einer seiner wichtigsten Energielieferanten. 36 Prozent der gesamten Kohleimporte Deutschlands kommen aus Russland. Beim Rohöl liegt sein Anteil bei rund 33 Prozent. Die Corona-Krise hat die russische Wirtschaft stark getroffen. Laut der offiziellen Daten gab es Ende Juni 2020 rund 640.000 Infizierte und mehr als 9.000 Todesfälle in Russland. Nur die USA und Brasilien sehen sich noch höheren Infektionszahlen ausgesetzt. Die Pandemie hat dazu geführt, dass die Nachfrage nach Öl weltweit stark eingebrochen ist, was einen starken Verfall der Ölpreise ausgelöst hat. Diese Entwicklungen hatten auch negative Konsequenzen auf die russische Landeswährung. Eine Abwertung des Rubel ist für die stark importabhängige russische Wirtschaft überwiegend von Nachteil. Die negativen Effekte der Corona-Krise werden auch das Wirtschaftswachstum Russlands beeinträchtigen. Der IMF prognostiziert für Russland einen Rückgang der wirtschaftlichen Leistung von 6,6 Prozent im Jahr 2020 (IMF, 2020). Seine Industrieproduktion reduzierte sich im April bereits um 6,6 Prozent im Vergleich zum Vorjahreszeitraum. Vor allem die Gewinnung von Öl und Gas, Metallerzen und Kohle trug zum verlangsamten Wachstum der Industrieproduktion bei. Auch der Arbeitsmarkt wurde im April zunehmend belastet, die Arbeitslosenquote stieg auf 5,8 Prozent (von 4,7 Prozent in März) und die Teilzeitbeschäftigung nahm zu. Der private Konsum ging ebenfalls zurück. Wie indirekte Konjunktur-Indikatoren vermuten lassen, wird sich die schwache Wirtschaftstätigkeit fortsetzen. Als Antwort auf die Krise hat die Bank of Russia vor Kurzem den Leitzins um 100 Basispunkte auf 4,5 Prozent pro Jahr gesenkt und die Regierung Finanzhilfen angekündigt. Ob diese Maßnahmen ausreichen, um die Wirtschaft anzukurbeln, bleibt abzuwarten. Die Wirtschaft und Handelsbeziehungen Russlands werden in den nächsten Monaten erneut stark auf die Probe gestellt. |
| JEL: | E66 F10 H6 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkrep:322020&r=all |
| By: | Vit Machacek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic; CERGE-EI, Politickych veznu 7, 110 00 Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | The scientific community faces an everlasting pressure to publish internationally. This study measures the tendency to publish in globalized journals on a large dataset of journals indexed in the Scopus database. Based on data on 34 964 journals indexed in the Scopus Source List (Scopus 2018), we derived seven globalization indicators. These were subsequently scaled-up to the level of 174 countries and 27 disciplines between 2005 and 2017. The methodology draws from the pioneering work of Zitt and Bassecoulard (1998; 1999). The paper is accompanied by the interactive publication available at http://www.globalizationofscience.com. Advanced countries tend to have high globalization that is not varying across disciplines. Social sciences and health sciences are less globalized than physical and life sciences. The globalization in the former Soviet bloc is lower, especially in social sciences or health sciences. China has profoundly globalized its science system; gradually moving from the lowest globalization rates to the world average. Contrary Russia was constantly among the least globalized during the whole period, with no upward trend. |
| Keywords: | - - - |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2020_15&r=all |
| By: | Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Artem Kochnev; Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This study provides a systematic assessment of the costs of the ongoing armed conflict in the Donbas region of Ukraine. By combining the pre-war geographical distribution of fixed capital with data on battle intensity, survey evidence on household damage in the conflict-affected areas and novel data on the macroeconomy of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the report estimates the minimum reconstruction costs of the region at USD 21.7 billion. On the basis of the composition of the costs, the study argues that the government’s main focus should be on restoring the basic institutions that are usually taken for granted in most economies the markets and state capacity. The study proposes the key features of a reconstruction plan to help achieve this goal. This plan – assuming a lasting ceasefire is being observed – involves a continuation of the reform path in order to achieve sustainable and inclusive economic growth, to attract both foreign and domestic investments, improve the well-being of Ukrainian citizens and increase the opportunity costs of conflict. The systematic collection and dissemination of data on the Donbas region is essential. Ukraine should strive for balanced trade with the rest of the world. Last but not least, ensure that the peace settlement is durable. In the case of the Donbas this would mean an additional agreement that would not substitute the Minsk II Agreement but would both help to implement and complement it. Website 'Disconnected - Economic Challenges and Costs of Reintegrating the Donbas Region' |
| Keywords: | Conflict economics, political economy, international conflict, Ukraine, restoration, Donbas |
| JEL: | F50 F51 H12 H56 O52 I38 Q34 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:447&r=all |
| By: | Pyle, William |
| Abstract: | This article links Russians’ individual experiences during the late-Gorbachev and early-Yeltsin years to the beliefs those same individuals espoused in the Putin era, over a decade later. Drawing on questions, some of which are retrospective, from the first wave of the Life in Transition Survey, I show that a range of attitudes – including diminished support for markets and democracy and stronger support for reducing inequality – can be explained by whether an individual suffered labor market hardships (wage cuts, arrears, and/or unemployment) in the half decade from 1989 to 1994. More recent labor market disruptions, surprisingly, bear no such relationship to beliefs in 2006. Relative to the rest of the former Soviet Union, this pattern is unique. Though an explanation is difficult to pin down, one speculative hypothesis is that Russians were uniquely impressionable during this exit-from-communism period. Individual economic hardship, in conjunction with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, may have been particularly disorienting for those living in the country in which communism first took root. Life experiences during these years of instability, uncertainty, and diminished status may have left a uniquely deep and enduring impression. |
| JEL: | A13 J60 P23 P26 P52 |
| Date: | 2020–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2020_017&r=all |
| By: | Kornienko, Natalia (Корниенко, Наталия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Minina, Elena (Минина, Елегна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The issue of taxation of cross-border transactions is a key topic in the modern e-commerce system. The paper explores various aspects of this issue. Based on the analysis of the positions of leading international organizations, the principles of taxation of cross-border transactions are established. In this regard, the OECD approach, which is the main international platform where states coordinate their positions on taxation issues, is of particular importance. At present, no consensus has been reached on taxation of cross-border transactions. There are currently several examples of the legislative introduction of the new “digital tax” (France and the draft Act in the UK). Taking into account international experience and state practice, an assessment was made of Russia's readiness to introduce taxation on imports and exports. Based on the results of this assessment, we made relevant proposals. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:032045&r=all |
| By: | Braesemann, Fabian; Stephany, Fabian |
| Abstract: | The Internet, like railways and roads in the past, is paving innovation and alters the way in which citizens, consumers, businesses, and governments function and interact with each other. This digital revolution is empowering societies. It opens new, effective, and scalable services for governments and the private sector. It provides us with a more adaptive, data-driven approach to decision making in many aspects of our life. The digitalisation is particularly relevant for developing countries, as they can seize the opportunity for leapfrogging in order to become part of the global digitalised economy. With the example of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, this work illustrates how openly available online data can be used to identify, monitor, and visualise trends in digital economic development. Our interactive online dashboard allows researchers, policy-makers, and the public to explore four aspects of digital development: E-services, online labour markets, online knowledge creation and access to online knowledge. |
| Date: | 2020–06–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:f9jqh&r=all |