nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2020‒06‒22
twelve papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Russia, China and Central Asia: Cooperation over Competition By Mher Sahakyan
  2. Brain drain and brain gain in Russia: analyzing international mobility of researchers by discipline using Scopus bibliometric data By Alexander Subbotin; Samin Aref
  3. The Important Role of Equivalence Scales: Household Size, Composition, and Poverty Dynamics in the Russian Federation By Kseniya Abanokova; Hai-Anh H. Dang; Michael M. Lokshin
  4. Assessment of competitiveness of regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan By Zhanna Tsaurkubule; Zhaxat Kenzhin; Dana Bekniyazova; Gulmira Bayandina; Gulsara Dyussembekova
  5. Impact of Child Subsidies on Child Health, Well-being and Parental Investment in Human Capital: Evidence from Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey 2011-2017 By Alex Proshin
  6. Quel monde associatif en période de Covid-19 ? Un panorama des situations et problématiques associatives sous confinement By Edith Archambault
  7. Of routes and corridors: Challenges and opportunities for Silk Road destinations in the southern Caucasus By Schuhbert, Arne; Thees, Hannes
  8. The Covid-19 trade contraction: A view from global shipping, the EU and China By Chowdhry, Sonali; Felbermayr, Gabriel; Stamer, Vincent
  9. World Oil and Inventory Study: A Global VAR Analysis By Jennifer Considine; Abdullah Aldayel; Emre Hatipoglu
  10. Trade models in the European Union By Gräbner, Claudius; Tamesberger, Dennis; Heimberger, Philipp; Kapelari, Timo; Kapeller, Jakob
  11. Kyrgyz Republic; Request for Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument and Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  12. Real-time weakness of the global economy: a first assessment of the coronavirus crisis By Danilo Leiva-Leon; Gabriel Perez-Quiros; Eyno Rots

  1. By: Mher Sahakyan (China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research)
    Abstract: Central Asia has become an important arena of collaboration for Russia and China, with Moscow focusing on the region's security and stability and Beijing promoting trade and commerce, particularly investment in infrastructure. As Mher D Sahakyan, Founder and Director of the China-Eurasia Council for Political and Strategic Research in Yerevan, Armenia, writes, Chinese and Russian interests overlap as both see the value of promoting regional integration as a way to counter US influence.
    Date: 2020–02–06
  2. By: Alexander Subbotin (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Samin Aref (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: We study international mobility in academia with a focus on migration of researchers to and from Russia. Using millions of Scopus publications from 1996 to 2019, we analyze detailed records of more than half a million researchers who have published with a Russian affiliation address at some point in their careers. Migration of researchers is observed through the changes in their affiliation addresses. We compute net migration rates based on incoming and outgoing flows of researchers which indicate that while Russia has been a donor country in the late 1990s and early 2000s, in more recent years, it has experienced relatively balanced flows and a symmetric circulation of researchers. Using subject categories of publications, we obtain a profile of possibly mixed disciplines for each researcher. This allows us to quantify the impact of migration on each field of science. For a country assumed to be losing scientists, our analysis shows that while Russia has suffered a net loss in most disciplines and more so in pharmacology, agriculture, environmental science, and energy, it is actually on the winning side of a brain circulation system for dentistry, psychology, and chemistry. For the discipline of nursing, there is a balanced circulation of researchers to and from Russia. Our substantive results reveal new aspects of international mobility in academia and its impact on a national science system which could inform policy development. Methodologically, our new approach can be adopted as a framework of analysis for studying scholarly migration in other countries.
    Keywords: Russian Federation, bibliographies, brain drain, circular migration, computational demography, computational social science, digital demography, information sciences, international migration, labor migration, libraries, library science
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Kseniya Abanokova (National Research University, Russia); Hai-Anh H. Dang (World BankTemplate-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0); Michael M. Lokshin (World Bank)
    Abstract: Hardly any literature exists on the relationship between equivalence scales and poverty dynamics for transitional countries. We offer a new study on the impacts of equivalence scale adjustments on poverty dynamics in the Russian Federation, using equivalence scales constructed from subjective wealth and more than 20 waves of household panel survey data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. The analysis suggests that the equivalence scale elasticity is sensitive to household demographic composition. The adjustments for the equivalence of scales result in lower estimates of poverty lines. We decompose poverty into chronic and transient components and find that chronic poverty is positively related to the adult scale parameter. However, chronic poverty is less sensitive to the child scale factor compared with the adult scale factor. Interestingly, the direction of income mobility might change depending on the specific scale parameters that are employed. The results are robust to different measures of chronic poverty, income expectations, reference groups, functional forms, and various other specifications.
    Keywords: poverty; poverty dynamics; equivalence scale; Russia; panel survey.
    JEL: I30 J10 O15
    Date: 2020–06
  4. By: Zhanna Tsaurkubule (Baltic International Academy); Zhaxat Kenzhin (Baltic International Academy); Dana Bekniyazova (Innovative University of Eurasia); Gulmira Bayandina (S.Toraighyrov Pavlodar State University); Gulsara Dyussembekova (S.Toraighyrov Pavlodar State University)
    Abstract: In modern science, there are a large number of techniques focused on the assessment of competitiveness through the analysis of certain resources in the region. However, accounting of human resources in such assessments is not used as a prior factor in identifying regional competitive advantages. Competitive advantages affect not only the efficiency of individual sectors of the economy but also the overall social and economic development of the country. Assessment of the competitiveness of the region should include one of the main parameters of the human resource development level. Therefore, the forecast for the competitiveness of the region should take into account the pace of human resources development. The methods used in Kazakhstan for assessing the competitiveness of a region considers only the assessment of human resources in its structure but do not take into account the level of their development over time, as well as the multi-factorial nature of their components.The work explains and analyzes rating model for assessing of the competitiveness of the regions of Kazakhstan (the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs of the Republic of Kazakhstan). The authors proposed a methodology for ranking the regions of Kazakhstan based on an assessment of the development of their human resources that affect the competitiveness of the region. It includes an analysis of demographic, labor and social and economic indicators reflecting the state of human resources.
    Date: 2020–03–30
  5. By: Alex Proshin (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: This study evaluates the impact of introducing Maternity Capital (MC) program child subsidy of 250,000 Rub (7,150 euros or 10,000 USD, in 2007) for giving birth to /adopting 2nd and subsequent children since January 2007. The reform made it possible for eligible Russian families to allocate these funds to improve family housing conditions, to sponsor children education, or to invest them in mother's retirement fund. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of the MC claim eligibility on various child outcomes and household-level consumption patterns. Using data from representative Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey 2011-2017, I test regression discontinuity models and find no significant difference in health, educational and well-being outcomes between children raised in MC claim eligible and ineligible families. In addition, no such differences were found in terms of household-level dietary habits and preferences. The results are robust to different and functional, semi- and non-parametric RDD specifications.
    Keywords: child subsidy,child outcomes,Maternity Capital,regression discontinuity
    Date: 2020–05
  6. By: Edith Archambault (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne)
    Abstract: . Les associations présentes sur l'ensemble du territoire français constituent des réseaux d'interconnaissance et d'entraide essentiels en période de crise. Cependant, le confinement a posé à toutes ces organisations-un problème massif et inédit pour mener à bien leurs missions. Ce panorama a été réalisé dans le cadre d'une étude sur les associations et fondations françaises pour le compte de EU-Russia Civil Society Forum Les associations et fondations ont vécu de manière très différente le confinement selon leurs missions respectives, la présence ou non de personnel salarié et leur statut juridique. Les conséquences de cette situation pour les salariés et les bénévoles qui animent ces structures, mais aussi pour les associations elles-mêmes, tenues de réinventer les outils de leur gouvernance et de renouveler, notamment, le profil de leurs bénévoles. La conclusion esquisse deux scénarios d'avenir pour las organisations de la société civile selon que la vague de solidarité qui est apparue pendant le confinement est éphémère ou durable
    Date: 2020–07
  7. By: Schuhbert, Arne; Thees, Hannes
    Abstract: Purpose: Under the title of Belt-and-Road-Initiative (BRI), China has launched a global development program, which spans many regions and sectors. Tourism initiatives in particular, can occupy an interlinking position between infrastructure and services, and between global and local projects. This paper addresses the problem of the global-local link by critically examining a case at the southern Caucasus, as tourism is considered as a key industry for economic diversification in all three countries examined. Methods: Based on a mixed qualitative and quantitative approach, the study is about critically investigating the current state of challenges and opportunities for tourism-induced, integrated regional development, with particular focus on potential obstacles for regional and national destination competitiveness. Results: Results reveal that the BRI offers a basis for export-diversification in tourism and non-tourism economic sectors. Azerbaijan has the potential to integrate BRI activities into its local economic system but depends highly on the development of the Trans-Eurasian Corridor and the readiness of local entrepreneurs and institutions to support and extend development initiatives. Implications: The implementation of the BRI offers a significant opportunity for many rural regions to proactively benefit from increasing tourism demand, by linking local initiatives and industries with tourism-related projects embedded in the BRI.
    Keywords: destination management, competitiveness, belt-and-road-initiative, new silk road, Azerbaijan
    JEL: L80 M10 Z00
    Date: 2020–05–30
  8. By: Chowdhry, Sonali; Felbermayr, Gabriel; Stamer, Vincent
    Abstract: This policy brief examines the effects of the Covid19 pandemic on international trade. Major exporting economies have posted record year-over-year monthly declines in export volume ranging from -7.9% in Germany to -24.3% in South Korea. While logistical bottlenecks are being solved, low demand puts pressure on trade activity. The shipping industry has reduced its activity around Europe, Asia and America by up to -10% pointing to a prolonged reduction in trade. Over the first quarter of 2020, China's trade contracted severely with most economies - particularly Canada, Japan, Russia, Italy and South Africa.The trade collapse affects businesses differently and especially hits those firms that participate in low-value added stages of global value chains by assembling components.
    Keywords: Trade,Covid-19,China,GVCs,Handel
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Jennifer Considine; Abdullah Aldayel; Emre Hatipoglu (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Despite numerous journal articles, forecasting studies, and books, very little is known about the actual quantitative value, or economic cost, of shocks to world oil markets. The potential consequences of a given political or economic disturbance are unclear, and appear to depend on market conditions at the time of forecast and the idiosyncratic nature of the shock (see Figure 1). This study develops a new analytical framework to analyze shocks to world oil markets. We build upon the global vector autoregression (GVAR) model developed in 2016 by Mohaddes and Pesaran to include a new variable, OECD oil inventories, creating the GVAR Oil and Inventory Model — GOVAR. We also expand its geographic coverage by adding two new countries, Russia and Venezuela.
    Keywords: GVAR, Oil markets, Oil Price, Oil Price Shocks
    Date: 2020–06–10
  10. By: Gräbner, Claudius; Tamesberger, Dennis; Heimberger, Philipp; Kapelari, Timo; Kapeller, Jakob
    Abstract: By studying the factors underlying differences in trade performance across European economies, this paper derives six different 'trade models' for 22 EU-countries and explores their developmental and distributional dynamics. We first introduce a typology of trade models by clustering countries based on four key dimensions of trade performance: endowments, technological specialization, labour market characteristics and regulatory requirements. The resulting clusters comprise countries that base their export success on similar trade models. Our results indicate the existence of six different trade models: the 'primary goods model' (Latvia, Estonia), the "finance model" (Luxembourg), the "flexible labour market model" (UK), the "periphery model" (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, France), the 'industrial workbench model' (Slovenia, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic), and the 'high-tech model' (Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Finland, Germany and Austria). Subsequently, we comparatively analyse the economic development and trends in inequality across these trade models. We observe a shrinking wage share and increasing personal income inequality in most of the trade models. The "high-tech model" is an exceptional case, being characterised by a relatively stable economic development and an institutional setting that managed to counteract rising inequality.
    Keywords: Trade policy,cluster analysis,European Union,growth models,trade models
    JEL: F10 F16 F43 J3 J5 K2
    Date: 2020
  11. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has weakened the macroeconomic outlook. The authorities have launched a health care contingency plan and an initial package of economic measures, together totaling $31 million (0.4 percent of GDP), and are preparing a second, larger package of economic measures of about $400 million (5.2 percent of GDP). To help address an urgent balance of payments need arising from the pandemic, estimated at about $500 million, the authorities request an additional purchase under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) of 33.3 percent of quota (SDR 59.2 million) and a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) of 16.7 percent of quota (SDR 29.6 million) under the “exogenous shock” window of the RCF. This follows Board approval on March 26, 2020 of the authorities’ earlier request for the same amounts, before the doubling of the annual access on emergency financing under the “exogenous shock” window of the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) to 100 percent of quota was approved on April 6, 2020. This additional request will bring the total purchases under the RFI and the disbursements under the RCF to 100 percent of quota in 2020.
    Keywords: Rapid Credit Facility (RCF);Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI);
    Date: 2020–05–12
  12. By: Danilo Leiva-Leon (Banco de España); Gabriel Perez-Quiros (European Central Bank and CEPR); Eyno Rots (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)
    Abstract: We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real-time. It relies on nonlinear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and Australia) and emerging markets (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa). Based on such inferences, we construct a Global Weakness Index that has three main features. First, it can be updated as soon as new regional data is released, as we show by measuring the economic effects of coronavirus. Second, it provides a consistent narrative of the main regional contributors of world economy’s weakness. Third, it allows to perform robust risk assessments based on the probability that the level of global weakness would exceed a certain threshold of interest in every period of time. With information up to March 2nd 2020, we show that the Global Weakness Index already sharply increased at a speed at least comparable to the experienced in the 2008 crisis.
    Keywords: international, business cycles, factor model, nonlinear
    JEL: E32 C22 E27
    Date: 2020–06

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