nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2020‒06‒08
ten papers chosen by

  1. Место России в истории финансовых инноваций By BLINOV, Sergey
  2. Nuclear Energy of Turkey in the context of the Russian experience. By Ketenci, Natalya
  3. Resources bless BRICS By Sebri, Maamar; Dachraoui, Hajer
  4. Impacts of the Belt and Road in the Eurasian Heartland By Alexey Kalinin; Albert Park
  5. Monthly Report No. 11/2019 By Vasily Astrov; Mahdi Ghodsi; Mario Holzner; David Pichler; Leon Podkaminer
  7. The Impact of Labour Migration on the Ukrainian Economy By Jerzy Pieńkowski
  8. Livestock in Central Asia: From rural subsistence to engine of growth? By Robinson, Sarah
  9. Une lecture institutionnaliste de la réforme du secteur gazier russe By Locatelli, C.
  10. Application of Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) neural network in macroeconomic forecasting, national goal setting and global competitiveness assessment By Liyang Tang

  1. By: BLINOV, Sergey
    Abstract: Today, increasing the growth rate of the Russian economy is more relevant than ever. Consideration of any macroeconomic phenomena that in a historical perspective would provide an economic recovery and increase the economic power of our country is of undoubted interest. One of the important aspects of this problem is the influence of monetary policy and specifically the increase in real money supply on economic growth in a broad historical perspective. The dynamics of the real money supply explains well the rapid growth of the Russian economy in 1999–2008 and the slow one from 2009 to 2019. Some features of monetary policy, in particular ignoring the important role of public debt as a stabilizer of the monetary system, can be considered as causes of economic policy failures in the recent past. From the perspective of a historical analysis of these recent events and a deeper immersion in economic history, we will try to find out what measures in the field of monetary and financial strategies and tactics can most effectively help accelerate Russia's economic development.
    Keywords: деньги; история; финансы;
    JEL: E40 E42 E50 E58 N00 N10
    Date: 2020–05–14
  2. By: Ketenci, Natalya
    Abstract: Nuclear energy has become one of the widely discussed topics in Turkey due to the controversial points of view. Turkey is new to nuclear power; the construction of the first nuclear reactor started in April of 2018. Production of electricity in Turkey is highly dependent on imported energy sources. Continuously increasing energy prices and foreign energy supply reduce national energy security and undermine the sustainable economic growth of the country, whose exports heavily depend on foreign energy sources. Therefore; one of the solutions to decrease dependence on foreign energy sources for such an industrial country, as Turkey, is to produce nuclear energy. Opinions of specialists and the population are divided in controversial groups, where advantages and disadvantages of nuclear power oppose each other. This chapter analyses the usage of nuclear power in the world and reasons for countries, which have reduced or vice versa increased the implementation of nuclear energy. The Russian company conducts the construction of the first nuclear plant in Turkey, therefore history and experience of Russia in nuclear energy are analysed in this chapter. The discussion on benefits and weaknesses of Russian experiences and how they can be applied to new a Turkish nuclear industry conclude the chapter.
    Keywords: nuclear energy; Turkey; Russia
    JEL: Q37 Q43 Q5 Q50
    Date: 2019–12–15
  3. By: Sebri, Maamar; Dachraoui, Hajer
    Abstract: The rise of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) as resource-rich countries has triggered the question on the blessing feature of the natural resources wealth. Whatever natural resources are abundantly available in a country or not, it is the rational use and control that may turn it into a blessing rather than a curse. This paper investigates the determinants of capital flight in BRICS countries during the period 2001-2017 while putting a greater emphasis on the role of natural resource rents. The empirical evidence is based on the panel-ARDL regression model estimated with PMG procedure. The econometric analysis reveals that natural resources exert a negative and significant effect on capital flight, indicating that the larger natural resource rents, the less capital flight. This gives support for the natural resource bless hypothesis. Empirical results show also that capital flight is determined by macroeconomic and institutional factors as well. However, the disaggregated analysis by natural resource components and the short-run estimates by individual countries show some disparities that cannot be overlooked. Despite the large benefits of natural resources wealth, curbing the capital flight waves remains a key challenge that faces the BRICS grouping in order to ensure that profits are maximized for the good of countries.
    Keywords: BRICS; Capital flight; Natural resources; Panel-ARDL; Pooled Mean Group (PMG)
    JEL: F0 F3 Q0
    Date: 2020–04–19
  4. By: Alexey Kalinin (Academic Director; The SKOLKOVO Institute for Emerging Market Studies); Albert Park (Director, HKUST Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Chair Professor, Department of Economics, Division of Social Science and Division of Public Policy; The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: Belt and Road projects in the Eurasian Heartland (Central Asia and the Caucasus, Russia, and Belarus) have predominately focused on the exploitation of the region’s natural resources rather than on developing infrastructure, building industrial facilities, or partnering in innovations. However, there is a visible positive impact of the BRI on host countries in the Eurasian Heartland, as evidenced by rising investment, increasing trade, institutional improvements, and growing humanitarian connections and awareness. At the same time, there are also unintended consequences of Chinese BRI activity, including negative social, environmental, and economic impacts that could undermine the future development of the Initiative due to public opposition and politicization.
    Keywords: Belt and Road, China, Financial Development, Firms, Jobs
    Date: 2020–04
  5. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); David Pichler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Chart of the month No convergence despite higher growth by Vasily Astrov and Leon Podkaminer Opinion Corner What can be done to help workers in the poorest countries in Europe? by Vasily Astrov and Mario Holzner The situation for workers in the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine remains difficult. Unless domestic conditions improve, the region will continue to record strong outward migration in the foreseeable future. A turnaround of this situation will require a credible EU accession anchor for the Western Balkans, better EU-Russia relations (important for Moldova and Ukraine), and more socially-oriented policies in the countries in question. The impact of global robot adoption on employment growth in CESEE by Mahdi Ghodsi The global economy is currently facing a new wave of technological change especially in (but not limited to) the realm of artificial intelligence and robotics. Taking into account higher robotisation in a given sector, higher robotisation in domestic and international suppliers of a given sector and higher robotisation in domestic and international customers of a given sector, we find a positive impact on employment growth in CESEE. Digitisation as a Future Growth Engine for CESEE by David Pichler The speed of economic convergence of CESEE with Western European countries has decelerated and even EU Member States in the region have failed to break through the middle-income ceiling. This article argues that digitisation provides a window of opportunities to diversify economies and enable them to become less dependent on international investors and knowledge transfer and to generate high-income jobs. Policies in education, infrastructure and business climate for fostering the digitisation process would not only boost convergence but may also partly alleviate the region’s demographic challenges. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: wages, price deflators, purchasing power parity, unemployment, outward migration, social partnership, robot adoption, employment, global value chains, digitisation, income convergence, ICT technology
    Date: 2019–11
  6. By: Valentyna Antonivna Vasyliev; Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University)
    Abstract: The article is devoted to adaptation of the national corporate law to the law of European Union`s corporations. Special attention has been given to define the legal nature of the corporation. It is concluded that there is no established understanding of the above concepts in national legal science. The main approaches to the corporate legal nature in particular European systems of justice – in FRG, France, England – are considered in depth. Significant differences between the legislation of Ukraine and legislation of the European Union countries based on the history of their development and peculiarities of specific national systems of justice are detected. The regulation of corporate relations in the European Union at supranational level is considered. It is concluded that the European Union supranational law is its corporate law. The priority areas for unification of European corporate law at the supranational level are analyzed. The main instruments to adjust the activities of corporations in EU law are identified to be the Directives aimed at harmonizing and unifying national legislation of EU Member States.
    Abstract: Статья посвящена адаптации корпоративного законодательства Украины к праву корпораций ЕС. Особое внимание уделено определению правовой природы корпорации. Сделан вывод об отсутствии устойчивого понимания приведенных понятий в национальной юридической науке. Подробно рассмотрены основные подходы к правовой природы корпорации в отдельных европейских правопорядках – в ФРГ, Франции, Англии. Констатировано наличие существенных различий между законодательством Украины и стран ЕС, обусловленные историей их развития и особенностями конкретных национальных правопорядков. Рассмотрены регулирования корпоративных отношений в ЕС на наднациональном уровне. Сделан вывод, что именно наднациональное право ЕС является его корпоративным правом. Исследованы приоритетные направления унификации европейского права корпораций на наднациональном уровне. Основным инструментом урегулирования порядка деятельности корпораций в праве ЕС определены директивы, направленные на гармонизацию и унификацию национального законодательства стран-членов ЕС
    Abstract: Стаття присвячена адаптації корпоративного законодавства України до права корпорацій ЄС. Особлива увага приділена визначенню понять «корпорація» та «корпоративне право». Зроблено висновок щодо відсутності усталеного розуміння наведених понять у національній юридичній науці та досліджено основні доктринальні підходи до їх визначення. Детально розглянуто основні підходи до правової природи корпорації в окремих європейських правопорядках – у ФРН, Франції, Англії. Констатовано наявність істотних відмінностей між законодавством України та країн ЄС, що зумовлені історією їх розвитку й особливостями конкретних національних правопорядків. Розглянуто регулювання корпоративних відносин в Європейському Союзі на наднаціональному рівні. Зроблено висновок, що саме наднаціональне право ЄС є його "правом корпорацій" або "корпоративним правом". Досліджено пріорітетні напрями уніфікації європейського права корпорацій на наднаціональному рівні. Основним інструментом врегулювання порядку діяльності корпорацій у праві ЄС визначено директиви, спрямовані на гармонізацію та уніфікацію національного законодавства країн-членів ЄС. Детально проаналізовано профільну директиву у сфері права корпорацій ЄС – DIRECTIVE (EU) 2017/1132 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 14 June 2017 relating to certain aspects of company law (codification), предметом регулювання якої є правовідносини створення, діяльності та припинення компаній з обмеженою відповідальністю (limited liability companies). Окрема увага приділена діджиталізації корпоративного права ЄС. У контексті інтеграційних процесів у сфері приватного права визначено окремі тенденції, властиві корпоративному законодавству України. Зокрема, звертається увага на неузгодженість норм корпоративного законодавства України, які містяться у двох кодифікованих актах – ЦК України та ГК України, а також у низці спеціальних законів. При цьому, сфера дії окремих норм є тотожною, а їх зміст – різним. Зроблено висновок щодо необхідності системного оновлення корпоративного законодавства України не лише з огляду на законодавчо закріплену вимогу поступової адаптації права України до права ЄС, а й у зв'язку з його неузгодженістю та перманентними та несистемними змінами
    Keywords: Legal entities,Legal entities of commercial law,Legal entity,Corporate,Corporation law,company,Corporative law,Corporations,corporate legislation,adaptation of legislation to EU law,Law of corporations,corporation
    Date: 2020–04–30
  7. By: Jerzy Pieńkowski
    Abstract: This paper reviews evidence on the main economic impacts of the post-2014 wave of labour emigration on the economy of Ukraine, based on an overview of international and Ukrainian studies and surveys. Emigration reduces labour supply and pushes up wage growth for workers who stay in the country; one of the issues of concern is a skills waste – most of Ukrainians abroad work outside their qualifications or in very simple jobs. The main benefit for the Ukrainian economy is linked to an inflow of remittances equivalent to 8% of GDP. Remittances significantly improve the welfare of migrants’ families and stimulate domestic demand, pushing up the GDP in the country and playing a counter-cyclical role. A stable and substantial inflow of remittances contributes to a more sustainable balance of payments, counterbalancing permanent trade and investment income deficits. The impact of emigration and remittances on Ukraine’s public finance is mixed: remittance inflows lead to increased VAT, excise and customs revenues, while reduced labour supply diminishes revenues from labour taxes and social security contributions in Ukraine. The policy recommendations for the Ukrainian authorities include encouraging migrants, especially the skilled ones, to invest in, and return to, their home country; creating a more attractive business environment for this purpose (and beyond); a better use of the workforce remaining in the country through stimulating employability; improving social aspects of the Ukrainian migration, especially encouraging higher social security coverage of migrants.
    JEL: F22 F24 J61
    Date: 2020–04
  8. By: Robinson, Sarah
    Abstract: This paper presents an overview of the livestock sector in Central Asia using national statistics and field survey data. Growing consumer demand and underused pasture reserves suggest significant potential for growth. But production is fragmented between many small household producers with poor access to land, family farms and very large (but often inefficient) enterprises. Few producers can supply quality livestock products at high volumes, leading some meat and milk processors to favour imported produce. Peri-urban milk suppliers may participate in value chains through wholesalers, but in remoter areas farms specialise in meat production, reliant on long chains of intermediaries. Only in Kazakhstan do international agreements, slaughter and animal health arrangements favour export prospects in the near future. Since the 1990s, winter fodder deficits have limited livestock productivity. Domestic fodder production is increasing in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, but is hindered by state order policies in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Dairy producers close to markets often provide high quality fodder, whilst need for supplements is lower amongst mobile meat producers with winter pasture. Amongst the latter, a class of large commercial operations is emerging, whilst smaller farms lacking access to grazing resources find it harder to grow. Government policy often magnifies differences between small and large producers, for example through conditions for subsidies or land access procedures. Subsidised credit is available in most republics but uptake is limited by effective demand. Improved public services, better support for service cooperatives and decentralised processing and slaughter facilities would help producers increase value from their livestock.
    Keywords: Central Asia,livestock,marketing,fodder,pasture,policy
    Date: 2020
  9. By: Locatelli, C.
    Abstract: Depuis l’effondrement de l’Union soviétique, la question de la réforme de l’industrie gazière russe et de sa principale compagnie Gazprom est l’objet d’importants débats. Elle s’avère être un enjeu important pour les équilibres des marchés régionaux du gaz naturel en particulier pour l’Europe et de plus en plus pour l’Asie. Aujourd’hui se dessine une voie de réforme en accord avec les caractéristiques institutionnelles et politiques de l’économie russe puisqu’elle ne s’apparente pas au processus de libéralisation tel que mis en oeuvre dans l’Union européenne.Ces principales caractéristiques sont le fruit d’une recombinaison entre des anciennes et des nouvelles formes institutionnelles. La norme concurrentielle, même limitée, est une des institutions importantes de ce processus de recomposition. Gazprom, acteur central, est mis en concurrence tant sur son marché intérieur qu’à l’international. Ainsi, les processus de sédimentation/hybridation institutionnelles à l’oeuvre dans le secteur gazier russe conduisent à une restructuration majeure du secteur et dessinent une voie de réforme originale.
    JEL: L11 L22 Q35 B15
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Liyang Tang
    Abstract: This paper selects the NARX neural network as the method through literature review, and constructs specific NARX neural networks under application scenarios involving macroeconomic forecasting, national goal setting and global competitiveness assessment. Through case studies on China, US and Eurozone, this study explores how those limited & partial exogenous inputs or abundant & comprehensive exogenous inputs, a small set of most relevant exogenous inputs or a large set of exogenous inputs covering all major aspects of the macro economy, whole area related exogenous inputs or both whole area and subdivision area related exogenous inputs specifically affect the forecasting performance of NARX neural networks for specific macroeconomic indicators or indices. Through the case study on Russia this paper explores how the limited & most relevant exogenous inputs set or the abundant & comprehensive exogenous inputs set specifically influences the prediction performance of those specific NARX neural networks for national goal setting. Finally, comparative studies on the application of NARX neural networks for the forecasts of Global Competitiveness Indices (GCIs) of various economies are conducted, in order to explore whether the specific NARX neural network trained on the basis of the GCI related data of some economies can make sufficiently accurate predictions about GCIs of other economies, and whether the specific NARX neural network trained on the basis of the data of some type of economies can give more accurate predictions about GCIs of the same type of economies than those of different type of economies. Based on all of the above successful application, this paper provides policy recommendations on applying fully trained NARX neural networks that are assessed as qualified to assist or even replace the deductive and inductive abilities of the human brain in a variety of appropriate tasks.
    Date: 2020–05

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