nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2020‒05‒04
eight papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. A myth of soft budget constraints in socialist economies By Popov, Vladimir
  2. Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Sizable Child Subsidy: Evidence from Russia By Ilia Sorvachev; Evgeny Yakovlev
  3. International Economic Sanctions: Multipurpose Index Modelling in the Ukrainian Crisis Case By Nady Rapelanoro; BALI Morad
  5. Investigating the capabilities and the competitiveness of the EU vis-à-vis its main competitors in developing civilian technologies with critical spillovers into the defence By Federico Caviggioli; Antonio De Marco; Giuseppe Scellato
  6. SYSTEM OF LEGAL FACTS By Anatoliy Kostruba
  7. Revisiting the Glick-Rogoff Current Account Model: An Application to the Current Accounts of BRICS Countries By Zhai, Weiyang; Yoshida, Yushi
  8. Modern Challenges of Monetary Policy Strategies: Inflation and Devaluation Influence on Economic Development of the Country By Abuselidze, George

  1. By: Popov, Vladimir
    Abstract: Most of the time the budget constraints in the socialist economies were harder than in developing countries and no less hard than in developed countries. The soft budget constraints (SBC) in socialist economies were not pervasive, as most authors believe, but selective, i.e. involved subsidization of some enterprises/industries at the expense of the other. This type of selective subsidization is a classic case of industrial policy: it may be good or bad, leading to success (China, Vietnam) or failure (USSR, Eastern Europe), but cannot be regarded as an intrinsic feature of the socialist centrally planned economy and an example of pervasive SBC. Pervasive SBC should be associated with permanent government budget deficit, debt accumulation, high inflation and other forms of macroeconomic populism. In the Soviet Union in the post-war period (after the monetary reform of 1947 and until the Gorbachev financial and monetary expansion that started in 1987) budget deficit and debt were very low, open and hidden inflation was less than several percent a year – a better record than in most Western countries. But in the 1990s in Russia, other former Soviet republics and most East European countries budget constraints were weakened dramatically and inflation increased to hundreds and thousands percent a year. SBC is just one type of this populist macroeconomic policy that was rare in socialist countries, but is found in abundance in many developing countries (especially Latin America and Sub-Sahara Africa) and transition economies (especially FSU states).
    Keywords: Soft budget constraints, socialist economies, industrial policy
    JEL: H60 O25 P34 P35 P40 P43
    Date: 2020–04–21
  2. By: Ilia Sorvachev (Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison); Evgeny Yakovlev (New Economic School)
    Abstract: This paper utilizes a large-scale natural experiment aimed to increase fertility in Russia. Motivated by a decade-long decrease in fertility and population, the Russian government introduced a sequence of sizable child subsidies (called Maternity Capitals) in 2007 and 2012. We find that the Maternity Capital resulted in a significant increase in fertility both in the short run (by 8%) and in the long run (by 20%), and has already resulted in an increase in completed cohort fertility for a large cohort of Russian women. The subsidy is conditional and can be used mainly to buy housing. We find that fertility grew faster in regions with a shortage of housing and with a higher ratio of subsidy to housing prices. We also find that the subsidy has a substantial general equilibrium effect. It affected the housing market and family stability. Finally, we show that this government intervention comes at substantial costs: the government’s willingness to pay for an additional birth induced by the program equals approximately 50,000 dollars.
    Date: 2019–07–08
  3. By: Nady Rapelanoro; BALI Morad
    Abstract: This short paper’s goal is to create a sanction index to simulate international economic sanctions. To do so, it has been decided to focus on the Ukrainian crisis case, and on international sanctions against the Russian Federation. The first part of this paper treats the methodology and mathematical formalization used to build our index. After the mathematical formalization comes an empirical part that is demonstrating improvements brought by our work. To assess these improvements, our index is compared to a previously developed index from Kholodilin and Netšunajev (2016). Four country SVAR models are used in two main sections, two initials and two extended. Results of this section reveal that our new sanction index has a stronger explanatory power. In addition, it seems that our index affects short-term Russian production variations more sharply than its predecessor. The explanatory power improvements are confirmed by extended models, confirming our index relevance.
    Keywords: Russian economy, European economies, Ukrainian crisis, economic sanctions, sanctions shock, trade relations, international crisis, structural vector autoregressive models
    JEL: F4 C5
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University)
    Abstract: The article aims at investigating the historical development of scientific ideas of legal facts in the private law doctrine. The authors particularly focus on the approaches used to define the concept of "legal fact" in the institutions of Gaius, the Civil Code of Eastern Galicia of 1797, the Austrian Civil Code of 1811, the Civil Code of France of 1804, the German Civil Code of 1899. The authors analyze "classical" approaches to the definition of the "legal fact" concept in works by F. Savigny, H. Dernburg, R. Sohm, G. Puchta, А.Ton, Ye. Tsytelman, L. Enneccerus, B. Windscheid, K. Lorenz, F. Wieacker, R.Knieper and others. It is argued that the concept of "legal fact" enshrined in Part 2, Article 11 of the Civil Code of Ukraine (Ukraine's CC) evidences the perception of a settled theoretical position according to which it is legal facts that lay the basis for the origination of civil rights and obligations. According to the conclusion made on the basis of the study findings, the authors maintain that legal facts have a wider capability than just to ensure the movement of legal relations. Legal facts can also give rise to legal capacity, legal competence, subjective rights and legal obligations which do not correspond to each other, and separate legal authorities. It is proved that the modern view on the legal fact's nature is shifting from the position according to which the State recognizes a respective phenomenon of the outside world as such a fact towards recognition of a consequence of a respective phenomenon of reality as a legal fact. In this context, the grounds for imparting legal significance to such a fact are, along with a legal rule, other legal regulators of behavior of participants to civil relations (in particular, contract). Special attention is paid to the study of the set of facts. In this article, the "set of facts" refers to a set of legal facts, which in the structural unity entail the consequence in the form of establishment, exercise and termination of subjective civil rights, legal obligations, civil legal relations in general etc. In this context, separate legal facts are incorporated in the set of facts as its elements. The article defines general and special features of a legal fact. Common features of the legal fact are defined as follows: 1) it is specific; 2) it has subject-object causation; 3) attribution; 4) individuality; 5) spatial and temporal certainty; 6) normative formalization; 7) consequence. A legal fact also has special features, namely: 1) the nature of consequences it entails; 2) regressivity of information; 3) combination of legal facts. The concept of legal fact is revealed through the role of a body of general philosophical and special legal features (and thus the definition of legal fact is based on its understanding as a consequence of a fragment of reality, the establishment of which in a normatively formalized manner affects the development of law-absorbent constructs in social relations). Given the latest approaches to defining the nature of legal facts in civil law, the authors believe that it is crucial to make a recodification of civil legislation of Ukraine and improve the relevant provisions of the current Civil Code of Ukraine, with due regard for the developments of modern civil doctrine.
    Abstract: Стаття присвячена дослідженню історичного розвитку наукових уявлень про юридичні факти у доктрині приватного права. Особлива увага приділена підходам до визначення поняття "юридичний факт" в Інституціях Гая, Цивільному кодексі Східної Галіції 1797 р., Австрійському цивільному уложенні 1811 р., Цивільному кодексі Франції 1804 р., Німецькому цивільному уложенні 1899 р. Проаналізовано "класичні" підходи до визначення поняття "юридичний факт" у доробках Ф. Савіньї, Г. Дернбурга, Р. Зома, Г. Пухти, А. Тона, Є. Цительмана, Л. Еннекцеруса, Б. Віндшайда, К. Ларенца, Ф. Віакера, Р. Кніпера та ін. Констатується, що закріплення поняття "юридичний факт" у ч. 2 ст. 11 Цивільному кодексу України (ЦК України) є свідченням сприйняття усталеної теоретичної позиції, за якою підставою виникнення цивільних прав та обов'язків є саме юридичні факти. За результатами проведеного дослідження зроблено висновок, що юридичні факти здатні забезпечити рух не тільки правовідносин. Юридичні факти можуть породжувати також і правоздатність, дієздатність, не кореспондуючі один одному суб'єктивні права та юридичні обов'язки, окремі правомочності. Доведено, що сучасний погляд на природу юридичного факту зміщується з позиції визнання державою відповідного явища зовнішнього світу як такого факту у напрямі визнання юридичним фактом наслідку відповідного явища дійсності. При цьому підставою надання такому факту юридичного значення виступають, окрім правової норми, й інші правові регулятори поведінки учасників цивільних відносин (зокрема, договір). Окрема увага авторів приділена дослідженню юридичного складу. Під "юридичним складом" у статті розуміється сукупність юридичних фактів, які в структурній єдності спричиняють наслідок у вигляді встановлення, реалізації і припинення суб'єктивних цивільних прав, юридичних обов'язків, цивільних правовідносин загалом тощо. У такому разі окремі юридичні факти входять до юридичного складу як його елементи. Визначено загальні та спеціальні ознаки юридичного факту. Загальні ознакии юридичного факту: 1) конкретність; 2) суб'єкт-об'єктивована обумовленість; 3) спричиненість; 4) індивідуальність; 5) просторова і темпоральна визначеність; 6) нормативна формалізованість; 7) консеквентність. Спеціальні ознаки юридичного факту: 1) характер спричинених наслідків; 2) регресивність інформації; 3) комбінованість юридичних фактів. Поняття юридичного факту розкривається у ролі комплексу загальнофілософських і спеціально-правових ознак (тому визначення юридичного факту ґрунтується на його розумінні як наслідку фрагмента реальності, встановлення якого нормативно-формалізовано впливає на розвиток правопоглинаючих конструкцій у суспільних відносинах). Враховуючи новітні підходи до визначення природи юридичних фактів у цивільному праві, доволі актуальним, на думку авторів, вбачається проведення рекодифікації цивільного законодавства України та удосконалення відповідних положень чинного ЦК України з урахуванням доробків сучасної цивілістичної доктрини.
    Keywords: legal fact,set of facts,civil law provision,legal relations,obligation under civil-law.,legal regilations
    Date: 2019–01–20
  5. By: Federico Caviggioli (Politecnico di Torino); Antonio De Marco (Politecnico di Torino); Giuseppe Scellato (Politecnico di Torino)
    Abstract: This study proposes a framework for investigating the relevance of dual use inventions, i.e., military applications of civilian patents. The data collected extends the companion report that focused on the opposite direction of dual use: from military inventions to civilian applications (Caviggioli et al., 2018). The analyses focus on 10 million patent families from selected patent offices in the years 2002-2015. The method proposed identified 85,034 defence inventions (0.9%) that were compared with the civilian inventions along several dimensions (time, geography, technological clusters). This study operationalises dual use from both a civilian to a military application (CM dual use) and in the opposite direction (MC dual use). The presence of CM dual inventions is 1.4% of the total civilian sample, with a slightly decreasing trend. They are four times the MCs in absolute numbers. The geographical analysis reveals heterogeneity: the US is the origin of 58.7% of the total dual use inventions identified in the sample and shows the highest incidence of cases (4.7% of all civilian inventions). The results also indicate significant heterogeneity in the share of domestic knowledge flows. The domestic spillover for dual in most of the countries examined is lower than for non-dual: a military application of a civilian innovation is a relatively more frequent occurrence outside the borders of the country with the exceptions of the USA, France, and the Russian Federation. The share of domestic CM dual use in the EU28 area is 36%, smaller than the corresponding non-dual value (42%).
    Keywords: Dual-use technologies, Key enabling technologies, defence
    Date: 2020–04
  6. By: Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University)
    Abstract: У даній книзі зібрані наукові праці відомих в Україні науковців, докторів юридичних наук, учнів, які багато років пліч-о-пліч працюють із високоавторитетним Вченим, знаного фахівця у сфері цивільного та договірного права. Праця друкується в рамках серії «НАШІ ЮВІЛЯРИ», яка започаткована та підтримується Науково-дослідним інститутом приватного права і підприємництва імені академіка Ф. Г. Бурчака НАПрН України. Книга розрахована на наукових та науково-педагогічних працівників вищих навчальних закладів і наукових установ, докторантів, аспірантів та студентів, а також на широке коло читачів.
    Keywords: legal fact,Legal regulation of civil-law relations,Legal relations,Civil law,Legal facts enforcement
    Date: 2018–12–10
  7. By: Zhai, Weiyang; Yoshida, Yushi
    Abstract: Understanding what drives the changes in current accounts is one of the most important macroeconomic issues for developing countries. Excessive surpluses in current accounts can trigger trade wars, and excessive deficits in current accounts can, on the other hand, induce currency crises. The Glick-Rogoff (1995, Journal of Monetary Economics) model, which emphasizes productivity shocks at home and in the world, fit well with developed economies in the 1970s and 1980s. However, the Glick-Rogoff model fits poorly when it is applied to fast-growing BRICS countries for the period including the global financial crisis. We conclude that different mechanisms of current accounts work for developed and developing countries.
    Keywords: BRICS Countries; Current Accounts; Glick-Rogoff Model; Global Financial Crisis; Productivity Shock
    JEL: F32 F41
    Date: 2020–04–01
  8. By: Abuselidze, George
    Abstract: The article discusses causes and socio-economic peculiarities of one of the most difficult and undesirable condition for the economy-inflation and devaluation. The purpose of the research is to analyze the socio-economic results of inflation and devaluation in Georgia and to determine the main directions to overcome it. Due to study purposes was investigated the causes of inflation and devaluation, as well as was examined its influence on economic development of the country and its influence on welfare of each citizen. In the article are discussed main models of anti-inflation regulation, as well as foreign experience of monetary regulation of inflationary processes and is an evaluated possibility of their use in Georgia. The National Bank monetary regulation effectiveness is assessed and recommendations have been developed.
    Keywords: Inflation; Devaluation; Monetary Policy; Welfare; Economical Activity; Economic Development; Georgia.
    JEL: E42 E52 E58 I31 O11
    Date: 2018–05–10

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