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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Alexander Knobel; Andrey Lipin; Andrey Malokostov; David G. Tarr; Natalia Turdyeva |
| Abstract: | We assess deep integration in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) through the reduction of time in trade costs, the reduction of non-tariff barriers in goods and the liberalization of barriers against foreign suppliers of services. We develop an innovative multi-region model of trade and FDI for preferential trade analysis where we incorporate Dixit-Stiglitz endogenous productivity effects from trade and FDI liberalization. This model produces important differences compared with a perfect competition model. We build on numerous surveys and econometric estimates of the trade and FDI barriers in our focus countries that we helped develop. We show that if the EAEU effectively implements its objectives for trade cost reduction, it would lead to significant welfare gains of between 0.8 to 4.8 percent of consumption, depending on the country. If these deep integration measures are extended to third countries, either by a wider liberalization effort or by spillovers, then the estimated welfare gains increase between 2.5 and 4.5 times for Belarus, Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation. Using the neoclassical model of labor migration, we estimate that the right to legally work in the Russian Federation is approximately of equal value to Armenia as the combined aspects of the reduction of trade costs, including FDI liberalization. Our estimates show that all the spillovers are beneficial to all the EAEU countries. Among the various reforms under consideration, we identify which reform is most important for each EAEU member country; and we identify whether the European Union, China or the United States is the most important external region for each member country if the reforms are extended to third countries. |
| Keywords: | Eurasian Economic Union; deep integration; foreign direct investment; services liberalization; preferential trade agreements; endogenous productivity effects. |
| JEL: | F12 F14 F15 F17 F55 O52 O53 C63 C68 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps41&r=all |
| By: | Alicia García-Herrero; Jianwei Xu |
| Abstract: | This paper was prepared for the seminar ‘Trade relations between the EU, China and Russia’, co-organised by the delegation of the European Union to Russia and Bruegel with the support of the EU Russia Expert Network on Foreign Policy (EUREN). The seminar was funded by the European Union. The content of this paper is the sole responsibility of the author and does not represent the official position of the European... |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:wpaper:33317&r=all |
| By: | Marta Domínguez-Jiménez; Niclas Poitiers |
| Abstract: | This Policy Contribution is a version of a paper prepared for ‘Russian economy at the crossroads- how to boost long-term growth?’, a seminar co-organised by the Delegation of the European Union to Russia and Bruegel, with the support of the EU Russia Expert Network on Foreign Policy. The seminar was funded by the European Union. The content of this paper does not represent the official position of the European Union.... |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bre:polcon:34768&r=all |
| By: | Polbin, Andrey |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an unobserved component model for real GDP, real household consumption, and real investment of an oil-exporting economy. The model decomposes domestic variables’ dynamics into permanent and transitory components, accounting for dependence on oil prices in the short and long-run, as well as for the common long-run economic growth and the common cyclical behavior. Estimated on the Russian macroeconomic variables, the model exhibits strong dependence on oil prices. |
| Keywords: | oil prices; GDP; consumption; investment; unobserved component model; common growth |
| JEL: | C13 C32 C51 E20 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99381&r=all |
| By: | Natalia Turdyeva |
| Abstract: | The principal interest of the paper is the quantification of terms of trade shocks response of the Russian economy on a detailed computable general equilibrium (CGE) model calibrated with Russian input-output data. The results suggest a decrease of welfare of the representative consumer and real GDP with the deterioration of the terms of trade. In the Central scenario (a 10% decrease in the world price of crude oil, a 3% decrease in the world price of natural gas and an 8% decrease in the world price of petroleum products) welfare of the representative consumer decreases by -1,17% of benchmark consumption level or -0,58% of the base year GDP in the comparative static model. Percentage change of the GDP in the Central scenario of the comparative static model is of the same magnitude as decrease in representative consumer’s welfare in terms of the benchmark GDP: -1,55%. Welfare changes associated with the Central scenario of the steady-state model, where capital stock adjusts to its long-term level, indicate a significant decrease in the welfare of the representative consumer up to -2,64% of benchmark consumption level or -1,23% of the base year GDP. Percentage change of the GDP in the Central scenario of the steady-state model exceeds representative consumer’s decrease in welfare in terms of the benchmark GDP: -2,51%. The model was validated by historical simulation with observed levels of exogenous parameters, mimicking change in economic environment from 2011 to 2015. The results of the historical simulation stress the importance of fiscal parameters (i.e. export taxes) in analysis of production behaviour of Russian extraction industries. |
| Keywords: | terms of trade, oil price shock, computable general equilibrium models, input-output table, industry output; CGE model validation. |
| JEL: | F17 C68 D58 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps48&r=all |
| By: | Poupakis,Stavros |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether foreign direct investment inflows facilitate upgrading of export quality in host countries. The analysis focuses on the Russian Federation and uses customs data merged with firm-level information from Orbis. The results show a positive relationship between the quality of products exported by domestic firms and the presence of foreign affiliates in the upstream (input-supplying) industries. This relationship is present irrespective of export destination or foreign direct investment origin. The results are robust to using different proxies to measure product quality. |
| Date: | 2020–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9201&r=all |
| By: | Anatoliy Kostruba (Vasyl Stefanyk Precarpathian National University) |
| Abstract: | Breaching of contractual obligations may lead to certain negative consequences. Hence, this work analyzes the theoretical aspects of termination of contractual obligations in Ukraine's civil law. The article aims to study the obligation termination mechanism by determining the legal framework for its functioning. The author focuses on one of the forms of contractual obligation termination, more specifically, the start of cancellation and deferred status of a legal transaction. Using normative and protective functions in legislation, the author plans to determine specifics of legal facts of normative compensatory nature. It is established, that the condition for cancellation of a legal transaction, can be a direct or reverse mechanism for the termination of contractual obligations. A condition for cancellation of a legal transaction can be applied to the whole transaction or to its separate parts. |
| Keywords: | Legal basis,self-organization,alienation,legal transaction,circumstance,Civil Code,Ukraine,Contracts law,obligations |
| Date: | 2019–06–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02512844&r=all |
| By: | Gräbner, Claudius; Tamesberger, Dennis; Heimberger, Philipp; Kapelari, Timo; Kapeller, Jakob |
| Abstract: | By studying the factors underlying differences in trade performance across European economies, this paper derives six different "trade models" for 22 EU-countries and explores their developmental and distributional implications. We first introduce a typology of trade models by clustering countries based on four key dimensions of trade performance: endowments, technological specialization, labour market characteristics and regulatory requirements. The resulting clusters comprise countries that base their export success on similar trade models. Our results indicate the existence of six different trade models: the "primary goods model" (Latvia, Estonia), the "finance model" (Luxembourg), the "flexible labour market model" (UK), the "periphery model" (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, France), the "industrial workbench model" (Slovenia, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic), and the "high-tech model" (Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Finland, Germany and Austria). Subsequently, we comparatively analyse the economic development and trends in inequality across these trade models. We observe a shrinking wage share and increasing personal income inequality in most of the trade models. The "high-tech model" is an exceptional case, being characterised by a relatively stable economic development and an institutional setting that managed to counteract rising inequality. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy,cluster analysis,European Union,trade models |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:3&r=all |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the general economic recovery has finally fed through to a significant increase in real wages in the Western Balkan countries, Moldova and Ukraine. Nevertheless, wage shares have barely picked up, and have even declined slightly in several places. Only in Kosovo has significant convergence with the Austrian wage level been registered. The improvement in labour market conditions in the countries covered has had only a moderately positive effect on wage developments. Despite recent declines, many countries continue to record double-digit unemployment rates, meaning that the bargaining power of employees has improved only slightly. The gradual decentralisation of wage-setting mechanisms has also slowed wage growth. In general, collective-bargaining mechanisms are much less developed than, for example, in Austria. Their scope is limited by the low share of employees in total (formal) employment. High unemployment and large wage gaps, especially in comparison with Western Europe, have led to considerable outward migration and population decline in many of these countries. This trend is expected to continue in the future. In the long run, this will result in the loss of an important share of the human capital of these countries, which might affect their prospects for convergence with Western European levels, including in terms of wages. Disclaimer The study was commissioned by the Arbeiterkammer Wien. This is a translation of the German version that was published as wiiw Research Report in German language No. 15 in September 2019. |
| Keywords: | Wages, wage share, demographic trends, migration, Phillips curve, wage-setting mechanisms |
| JEL: | J11 J31 J4 J50 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:444&r=all |
| By: | Emara, Noha; El Said, Aya |
| Abstract: | Using dynamic panel System GMM for 24 EMs over the period 1990-2014, we analyze how changes in sovereign ratings affect FDI inflows to EMs. The study also estimates the contagion effect of a ratings change among any of the BRICS countries on three regions, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and Latin America and Asia. Third, we estimate the impact of a ratings change on FDI inflows in the presence of two types of crises, the 2007-2009 global financial crisis as well as country-specific crises. The results suggest that sovereign ratings have a statistically significant impact on the flow of FDI to EMs and that the BRICS countries as a bloc exert a statistically significant contagion impact on the FDI inflows into the three regions examined. We also find that the impact of a sovereign ratings change on FDI inflows increases in crisis times, both country-specific, as well as the global financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Rating; Capital Flows; System GMM; Foreign Direct Investment; Emerging Markets |
| JEL: | N20 O16 O43 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:94504&r=all |
| By: | Emara, Noha; El Said, Ayah |
| Abstract: | Using dynamic panel System GMM for 24 EMs over the period 1990-2018, we analyze how changes in sovereign ratings affect FDI inflows to EMs. The study also estimates the contagion effect of a ratings change among any of the BRICS countries on three regions, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) and Latin America and Asia. Third, we estimate the impact of a ratings change on FDI inflows in the presence of two types of crises, the 2007-2009 global financial crisis as well as country-specific crises. The results suggest that sovereign ratings have a statistically significant impact on the flow of FDI to EMs and that the BRICS countries as a bloc exert a statistically significant contagion impact on the FDI inflows into the three regions examined. We also find that the impact of sovereign ratings change on FDI inflows increases in crisis times, both country-specific, as well as the global financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign Rating; Capital Flows; System GMM; Foreign Direct Investment; Emerging Markets |
| JEL: | N2 O16 O43 |
| Date: | 2019–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99254&r=all |