nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2020‒04‒06
eight papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Russian Business under Economic Sanctions: Is There Regional Heterogeneity? By Yoshisada Shida
  2. Реформа государственной системы проектной деятельности, 2018-2019 годы By Polterovich, Victor
  3. Political cycles and bank lending in Russia By Fungáčová, Zuzana; Schoors, Koen; Solanko, Laura; Weill, Laurent
  4. How to Attract Highly Skilled Migrants into The Russian Regions By Vera Barinova; Sylvie Rochhia; Stepan Zemtsov
  5. Republic of Moldova; Staff Report for the 2020 Article IV Consultation and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova By International Monetary Fund
  6. Republic of Moldova; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  7. 企業経営に対する経済制裁と金融ショックの影響:ロシア企業調査データの分析 By Yoshisada Shida
  8. Agriculture in Kazakhstan: mutual influence of infrastructure institutions on the dynamics of agricultural production development By Stukach, Victor; Saparova, Gulnar; Sultanova, Guzel; Saginova, Saniya

  1. By: Yoshisada Shida (Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA))
    Abstract: The sanctions against Russia, beginning in early 2014, provide us with a unique opportunity to study whether, and how sanctions affect a vast territorial global superpower. This study attempts to empirically examine the economic impact of this event, paying particular attention to the existence or inexistence of its regional heterogeneity. For these purposes, this study used a dataset from a survey that asked the executive managers of Russian regional companies to assess the impact on their management activities in late 2015. The key findings are as follows. First, approximately half of those interviewed perceived the economic sanctions as having a negative impact. Second, no regional variations in the impact of the sanctions could be found. It follows that financial, institutional-framework sanctions, aimed at an entire nation, exert a significant and geographically uniform impact. Moreover, even regional businesses near the Asia-Pacific region, holding strong connections with Asian countries, cannot avoid its impact.
    Keywords: economic sanctions, enterprise survey, Far East, Russian economy
    JEL: M2 F51 P20 R11
    Date: 2019–04
  2. By: Polterovich, Victor
    Abstract: The reform of the project activity state system (PASS) carried out in Russia in 2018-2019 is analyzed on the basis of its comparison with the system of institutions of catching-up development (ICD). The expediency of their implementation in modern conditions is confirmed by the experience of Malaysia and Tatarstan. Relying on the IСD system, Malaysia has been able to achieve rapid economic growth, reduce inequality and make significant strides in diversifying production. Due to a system of indicative planning and consolidation of elites, Tatarstan has become one of the most successful regions in Russia. The PASS built now, like the ICD system, brings the task of forming and selecting large-scale projects outside ministries and creates an institutional framework for indicative planning. The next task is to define more precisely the order of interaction of project offices, expert councils of different levels, private companies, and to develop a methodology for drawing up forecasts and plans of development indicators. Civil society and trade union representatives should be involved in these activities. Functions of PASS should be expanded, it is necessary to replenish the list of national projects. Large-scale projects should be aimed at borrowing more advanced technologies, creating new value chains and diversifying the Russian economy. The government faces the task of promoting inter-regional and intercompany technology exchange. The "Science" project should be substantially redesigned, and a project on improving the national innovation system should be developed. It should include a system of sectorial research institutes as intermediaries between academic science and the research units of large firms. Ultimately, a Federal Agency for Development with broad credentials should be created, a system of rolling indicative planning should be formed, and all economic policies should be harmonized with the objectives of the plans.
    Keywords: development agency; indicative planning; economic growth; project office; competence center
    JEL: L52 O21 O25 P11 P21
    Date: 2020–03–17
  3. By: Fungáčová, Zuzana; Schoors, Koen; Solanko, Laura; Weill, Laurent
    Abstract: State-owned banks tend to increase lending before elections for the purpose of boosting the reelection odds of incumbent politicians. We employ monthly data on individual banks to study whether Russian banks increased their lending before presidential elections during 2004–2019, a period covering four presidential elections. In contrast to the literature, we find that both state-owned and private banks increased their lending before presidential elections. This result stands for all loans, as well as separately for firm and household loans. The pre-election lending surge is followed by a deterioration of loan quality the following year, indicating the lending increase was not driven by higher growth prospects or some positive economic shock. The effect is substantially greater for large banks and banks more involved in lending activities. Our main finding that all types of banks in Russia increase their lending before presidential elections supports the view that the authorities in an electoral autocracy like Russia can influence lending of both private and state-owned banks for political reasons.
    JEL: G21 P34
    Date: 2020–03–25
  4. By: Vera Barinova (RANEPA University); Sylvie Rochhia (Université Côte d'Azur, France; GREDEG CNRS); Stepan Zemtsov (RANEPA University)
    Abstract: In this work, we examine the factors and patterns of attracting highly skilled migrants by the Russian regions. Attracting such specialists is particularly relevant for large developing countries with territories actively losing qualified personnel, and, accordingly, opportunities for long-term development. The results of an econometric study show that there are a number of objective factors that are poorly modifiable but have a significant positive effect on staff recruitment: the demographic potential of neighbouring regions, the size of accessible markets, and the natural comfort of living. Adverse socio-economic conditions in the region, such as high unemployment, negatively affect the possibility of emigration. However, there are factors that the regional authorities and the federal government are able to influence in the medium term. One of the most important determinants remains the income of highly qualified specialists and the availability of housing. Highly qualified specialists also strive to move to regions with a high level of education and a good healthcare system. The creation of favourable conditions for entrepreneurship has a positive effect on attracting active migrants, providing opportunities for new firms' establishments. As recommendations for regional policy, in particular, attracting highly qualified specialists to the Russian rare-populated Far East, efforts are needed to develop rental housing and zero-interest mortgages, create high-performance jobs, especially in education, science and medicine, as well as general improvement of institutional conditions for conducting business.
    Keywords: Russian regions, migration, gravity model, market access, institutions, human development index, regional policy, high-tech sector
    JEL: P23 J61 P36 R23
    Date: 2020–03
  5. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Moldova has made important progress in addressing macro-financial vulnerabilities under the 2016 ECF/EFF arrangements. Despite successful stabilization efforts, growth remains insufficient to significantly boost living standards.
    Keywords: External sector;Real sector;Banking sector;Fiscal policy;Central banks;ISCR,CR,NBM,percent of GDP,Proj,SOEs,ECF
    Date: 2020–03–18
  6. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
    Date: 2020–03–18
  7. By: Yoshisada Shida (Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA))
    Abstract: 本稿の課題は、対ロシア経済制裁がロシア企業の経営にもたらす影響を検証することにある。分析に際して、現在の経済低迷に複数の要因が影響していることを考慮して,次の2点に注目した。第1に、経済制裁を含む複数のマクロ経済ショックが企業経営に与える影響の程度及び影響経路の相違、第2に、制裁と他のショックの相互作用の有無である。この課題に対して、2015年第4四半期に実施されたインタビュー調査(ERINA企業調査)から得られた企業データを活用した。主な事実発見は3点に要約される。 第1に,制裁が企業経営に与える負の影響は小さくない。ただし、経済低迷の主要因であ る油価に連動したルーブル安の影響はより強い。第2に、制裁はその他のショックとは異 なる経路で企業経営に影響すると評価される。制裁は、資金調達を介した金融制裁として 企業経営に影響する一方で、ルーブル安及び中国株式市場ショックの影響評価には資金調 達以外の地理的な要因が作用する。第3に、経済制裁と他のマクロ経済ショックの影響評 価の間には相互作用がある。制裁の影響を受けたと評価する企業は、他のショックからも 影響を受けたと評価し、その反対の関係も成立している。以上の分析結果は、他の経済シ ョックの影響により制裁に対する企業経営の脆弱性が高まり、そのような状況の下で、経 済制裁は主に資金調達を経路として企業経営に負の影響を及ぼしている可能性を示唆して いる。このことは、制裁とそれ以外のショックの影響の分離を困難にしている。
    Keywords: Economic Sanctions, Russia, Financial Crisis, Macroeconomic Shock
    JEL: M2 F51 P20 R11
    Date: 2018–12
  8. By: Stukach, Victor; Saparova, Gulnar; Sultanova, Guzel; Saginova, Saniya
    Abstract: The article presents the main trends in the indicators of infrastructure development of the agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The dependence of agricultural production volumes on the development of social and transport infrastructure is studied. The mutual influence of infrastructure institutions on the dynamics of agricultural production development is shown. The study showed that the development of social and production infrastructure of agriculture in Kazakhstan remains unstable. This circumstance creates prerequisites for the implementation of a negative scenario in the development of rural areas. Shortcomings in the formation of rural infrastructure can lead to inhibition of reproduction processes in the agricultural sector, which will negatively affect the provision of the country's population with products from agricultural raw materials. The article substantiates the position that the formation and development of infrastructure in the agricultural sector is a necessary condition for effective interaction of subjects of main and auxiliary production, which contributes to the formation of general prerequisites for the development of agriculture. The results of the study can be used by the state in the process of developing and implementing agricultural policy, taken into account when investing in social, transport and industrial development of the village.
    Keywords: agricultural products, food security, agriculture, infrastructure, social infrastructure, rural population, investment attractiveness.
    JEL: O3 O31 O32 Q1 Q13 Q18
    Date: 2019–06

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