nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2020‒03‒16
nineteen papers chosen by

  1. External Threat, Group Identity, and Support for Common Policies - The Effect of the Russian Invasion in Ukraine on European Union Identity By Kai Gehring
  2. Marketing issues of sustainable tourism development in Russian regions By Marina Sheresheva; Anna Polukhina; Matvey Oborin
  3. Financial Inclusion in the Europe and Central Asia Region : Recent Trends and a Research Agenda By Demirguc-Kunt,Asli; Hu,Bingjie; Klapper,Leora
  4. The Formalistic Pattern Of Soviet Civil Codification As A Chapter In European Legal History By Dmitry Poldnikov
  5. Crises in Some Emerging Economy and Its Contagion Effect By Chuluunbayar, Delgerjargal
  6. Republic of Kazakhstan; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  7. Short-Term Inflation Projections Model and Its Assessment in Latvia By Andrejs Bessonovs; Olegs Krasnopjorovs
  8. The Belt and Road Initiative : Reshaping Economic Geography in Central Asia? By Bird,Julia Helen; Lebrand,Mathilde Sylvie Maria; Venables,Anthony J.
  9. Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum: ANALYSIS OF FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES IN KAZAKHSTAN By Nugumanova, Lyazzat
  10. Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum: ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED MIGRATION AND DISPLACEMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN By Tonkobayeva, Aliya
  11. Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum: THE ARAL SEA DESICCATION: SOCIO-ECONOMIC EFFECTS IN CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF KARAKALPAKSTAN, UZBEKISTAN By Basharat, Ismailova
  12. Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum: LAND USE, FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY – CASE STUDY IN RURAL UZBEKISTAN By Gojenko, B.; Leonhaeuser, I-U.; Stulina, G
  13. Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum: STATE OF WATER AND LAND USE IN SOUTH-WESTERN KYRGYZSTAN By Zuura, Mamadalieva
  14. Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum: POLICY-INDUCED DISTORTIONS TO FARMER INCENTIVES AND THEIR IMPACT ON AGRICULTURAL LAND USE IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC By Zhunusova, Eliza
  15. Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum: CAUSES AND IMPACT OF MIGRATION ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF KYRGYZSTAN By Sydyglieva, Zhamilia
  16. Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum: UZBEKISTAN’S AGRICULTURE- STATUS QUO, CHALLENGES AND POLICY SUGGESTIONS By Hasanov, Shavkat; Ahrorov, Farhod
  17. Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum: LEGAL ARRANGEMENTS AND PASTURE–RELATED SOCIO–ECOLOGICAL CHALLENGES IN KYRGYZSTAN By Dorre, Andrei
  18. Proceedings of the International Conference and Young Researchers’ Forum: THE IMPACT OF WTO ACCESSION GROWTH ON AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF TAJIKISTAN By Parviz Khakimov

  1. By: Kai Gehring
    Abstract: A major theory from social psychology claims that external threats can strengthen group identities and cooperation. This paper exploits the Russian invasion in Ukraine 2014 as a sudden increase in the perceived military threat for eastern European Union member states, in particular for the Baltic countries bordering Russia directly. Comparing low versus high-threat member states in a difference-in-differences design, I find a sizeable positive effect on EU identity. It is associated with higher trust in EU institutions and support for common EU policies. Different perceptions of the invasion cause a polarization of preferences between the majority and ethnic Russian minorities.
    Keywords: external threats, group identity, nation-building, trust, fiscal federalism, European Union, EU identity, Russia, Ukraine, Baltic
    JEL: D70 F50 H70 N44 Z10
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Marina Sheresheva (MSU - Lomonosov Moscow State University); Anna Polukhina (Volga State University of Technology [Yoshkar-Ola]); Matvey Oborin (PRUE - Plekhanov Russian University of Economics [Moscow])
    Abstract: This paper aims to provide a better understanding of marketing issues relevant to sustainable tourism development. Marketing issues are of crucial importance for Russian regions with unique landscapes and many small towns with their ancient churches, original local museums, and other attractions. The main obstacle for sustainable tourism development in these regions is the lack of prominence and absence of right positioning for target audiences. For the Mari El Republic as one of the most prospective sustainable tourism destinations in Russia, ethno-tourism concept, based on preserving paganism, the traditional religion of the Mari people, can become a solid basis for positioning. The research presented in the paper will contribute to the literature on tourism marketing and sustainable regional development in emerging markets by shedding light on the Russian tourism market diversity, as well as on the uniqueness of small Russian towns and villages as attractive destinations in terms of cultural heritage, history, and ecology. It will also underline the need to understand socio-cultural specifics of tourism destinations to ensure positive impact on the prosperity of local communities that are among the most important stakeholders in destination marketing.
    Keywords: Russia,destination development,Tourism,marketing,sustainable tourism,small settlements,culture
    Date: 2020–01–30
  3. By: Demirguc-Kunt,Asli; Hu,Bingjie; Klapper,Leora
    Abstract: Financial inclusion can help promote development. Inclusive financial systems allow people to invest in their education and health, save for retirement, capitalize on business opportunities, and confront shocks. In the Europe and Central Asia region, there is great variation in financial inclusion. In the euro area, most adults already own an account. Account ownership -- which is the first step of entry into the formal financial system has increased in the developing countries in the region, to 65 percent of the adult population from 45 percent in 2011. Tajikistan, Armenia, Moldova, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Georgia are among the countries that have seen the greatest increases globally, despite starting from a very low base. These experiences underline the potential role of digital payments in driving financial inclusion. Nevertheless, almost 30 percent of unbanked adults report lack of trust in banks as a barrier, which is nearly double the developing country average. And in some countries, gender and income gaps in account ownership remain significant. For example, the gender gap is close to 30 percentage points in Turkey, which is three times the average gap in developing countries. And in Romania, the gap between richest 60 percent of the population and poorest 40 percent is 33 percentage points, which is more than twice the average gap in developing countries. But there are many opportunities to increase account ownership. Over 80 percent of the unbanked have a mobile phone, and simply moving public sector pension payments into accounts would reduce the number of unbanked adults in the region by up to 20 million, including 8 million in the Russian Federation alone. Given the heterogeneity of experiences, there are ample opportunities for countries in the region to learn from each other, which lays out a rich research and operational agenda going forward.
    Keywords: Financial Sector Policy,Telecommunications Infrastructure,ICT Economics,Inequality,Educational Sciences
    Date: 2019–04–24
  4. By: Dmitry Poldnikov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Many European and even some Russian academics consider Russian legal history to be a series of ruptures. There is some truth to this, and yet the law in east of Eastern Europe is not devoid of continuities which link it with European legal trajectories. This paper examines the pattern of the codification of civil law as one of those links. Russian experience with drafting civil codes goes back to the ‘age of codifications’ and culminates with the ‘normal’ draft Civil Code of the Russian Empire of 1882–1913. After the Bolshevik revolution of 1917, Soviet civil legislation claimed to break away from all continuity with the bourgeois legacy, domestic and foreign. However, even the codification of ‘real socialism’ in the early 1960s reveals notable similarities with the ‘bourgeois’ legal experience. The theoretical concept of the Civil Code of 1964 overlapped with the modern notion of the code during the ‘age of codification’. This similarity was backed up by the positivistic legal scholarship that conceptualized Soviet law as a hierarchical and gapless system of binding norms. This part of the Soviet legal legacy still marks the Russian Civil Code of 1994-2006. Hence, the formalistic pattern of codification remains one of the Soviet relics in contemporary Russian legal style and allows a comparison with other civil law jurisdictions in Europe.
    Keywords: codification; Soviet law; civil code; legal formalism, legal style
    JEL: K10 K11 K12
    Date: 2020
  5. By: Chuluunbayar, Delgerjargal
    Abstract: The interdependence of countries may have positive impacts on countries development overall, however, any economic difficulties are no longer one countries issue, which clearly can be seen from many crises such as Asian Financial Crisis (1997), Russian debt crisis (1998), the Global Financial Crisis (2008) and Eurozone debt crises. Contagion effects have been studied extensively, however, uncertainty remains regarding the interrelationship between countries and the scale of crisis impacts (Bird et al. 2017). Meanwhile, crisis symptoms are occurring repeatedly across countries. The latest examples are for the biggest emerging markets: the Russian financial crises (2014-2017); the Brazilian political and economic crises (2014-2016); Turkey financial and economic crises (since 2018). The effect of crises in the biggest emerging markets on their trade partners and the global economy is still an open question. This paper seeks to illustrate the quantifiable effects of an emerging market shock by conducting a simulation centred on four countries - Argentina, Brazil, Russia and Turkey using the G-Cubed model. From the simulation results, there will be severe loss in those four countries and short-run significant contractions in all other countries. Overall, the global economy and total wealth of the people will be worsened in the long run.
    Keywords: Contagion effect, crises, emerging economy, G-Cubed
    JEL: F4 F47 F62
    Date: 2019–11
  6. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
    Date: 2020–02–07
  7. By: Andrejs Bessonovs (Bank of Latvia); Olegs Krasnopjorovs (Bank of Latvia)
    Abstract: This paper develops a Short-Term Inflation Projections (STIP) model, which captures cointegrated relationships between highly disaggregated consumer prices and their determinants. We document a significant pass-through of domestic labour costs, crude oil and global food commodity prices to consumer prices in Latvia. We also assess the model's forecast accuracy of Latvia's inflation during 2014–2018 and find that the STIP model statistically significantly outperforms a na?ve benchmark model in real time.
    Keywords: inflation forecasting, autoregressive distributed lag model, pass-through, oil prices, food commodity prices, labour costs
    JEL: C32 C51 C52 C53 E31
    Date: 2020–01–29
  8. By: Bird,Julia Helen; Lebrand,Mathilde Sylvie Maria; Venables,Anthony J.
    Abstract: This paper develops a computable spatial equilibrium model of Central Asia and uses it to analyze the possible effects of the Belt Road Initiative on the economy of the region. The model captures international and subnational economic units and their connectivity to each other and the rest of the world. Aggregate real income gains from the Belt Road Initiative range from less than 2 percent of regional income if adjustment mechanisms take the form of conventional Armington and monopolistic competition, to around 3 percent if there are localization economies of scale and labor mobility. In the latter case, there are sizeable geographical variations in impact, with some areas developing clusters of economic activity with income increases of as much as 12 percent and a doubling of local populations, while other areas stagnate or even decline.
    Date: 2019–04–08
  9. By: Nugumanova, Lyazzat
    Keywords: International Development, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
  10. By: Tonkobayeva, Aliya
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development
  11. By: Basharat, Ismailova
    Abstract: Previously prominent lake – the Aral Sea being rich in biodiversity maintained the livelihood of people. It ranked fourth place according to its size and it began shrinking in 1960. Its desiccation has triggered various problems which could be distinguished into three groups: environmental, social and economic. Due to timeframe and resource/data limitations not all categories of problems would be covered in this study. Some of the environmental issues will be taken into account, while all of them are interlinked (creating a vicious circle). But in the center of attention is the analysis of the social and economic impact of the Aral Sea desiccation in the region of KP. The literature review showed that most of the research is conducted in the agricultural sector, and the desiccation implications were considered more from the aspect of causes, missing out the long term effects of the Aral Sea desiccation. These long term effects are significant in the development of the region from social – health aspect, as health can affect the productivity, unemployment which means no/low income that in turn causes poverty and poverty is one of the main reasons for the environmental degradation to occur. It is a vicious circle of environmental degradation to worsen with health and simultaneously to affect the economic state. This study researched the health effects of the Aral Sea desiccation and with the help of ‘ecosystem approach’ pointed out the long term consequences of the currently existing health issues to the economy of KP.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development
  12. By: Gojenko, B.; Leonhaeuser, I-U.; Stulina, G
    Abstract: The present research is realised in the frame of the ZEU project “LUCA” (Land Use, Ecosystem Services and Human Welfare in Central Asia). LUCA builds a platform for joint analysis of land use effects for a whole region, involving participants from various countries of Central Asia. In the transition from planned to market economies, the Central Asian Republics experienced rising poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition as well as serious degradation of water and land resources. The process to a market oriented economy has not been adequately supported by national institutional development. It resulted in a reduced living standard. Land use strategies in Uzbekistan determine the level of food security. While the area of rangelands is vast, the livestock farming and production of grains, fruits and vegetables play a major role in food security and also are the basic source of rural population income. More than 60% of Uzbeks live in rural area. Uzbekistan produces adequate calories to supply the population but almost 30 % lives below the food poverty line (IFPRI, 2006). The poorest population spends more than 60 % of income for food and takes a diet dominated by cereals. The existing system of the “state order” to produce cotton and wheat does not allow to growing up food crops in adequate amount. The survey is focused on questions on the socio-economic situation, societal determinants of food supply, food consumption patterns, eating habits, and coping strategies managing food crisis on household level. Markhamat region of Andijan province and Denau region of Surkhandarya province are the two most populated regions of Uzbekistan and presented as the study area. The data collection is based on the own structured questionnaire, on the Household Food Security Survey Module (HFSSM), Food Consumption Score (FCS), and Food List Recall. Data analysis was done with SPSS. The main results show the percentage of food secure and food insecure households as well as the food consumption status of these households concerning cash and food crops households are producing on their farm land and/or on their homestead plot. The results show that the main indicator of the level of income, food security situation and food consumption status of household is the production strategy. Thereby the more households produce cotton and wheat they will have less income, and a worse food security and food consumption status.
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development, Land Economics/Use
  13. By: Zuura, Mamadalieva
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
  14. By: Zhunusova, Eliza
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, Land Economics/Use
  15. By: Sydyglieva, Zhamilia
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development
  16. By: Hasanov, Shavkat; Ahrorov, Farhod
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development
  17. By: Dorre, Andrei
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Development, Land Economics/Use
  18. By: Parviz Khakimov
    Keywords: International Development, Land Economics/Use
  19. By: Ergashev, Alisher
    Keywords: Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods

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