nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2020‒03‒02
fifteen papers chosen by

  1. RUSMOD -- A Tool for Distributional Analysis in the Russian Federation By Matytsin,Mikhail; Popova,Daria; Freije-Rodriguez,Samuel
  2. Improving regional regulatory platform tools for the development of small and medium businesses By Olga, Kuznetsova; Anna, Zakharkina; Lab, SDAG
  3. Innovative Learning Environments : The Role of Energy--Efficient Investments in Russian Preschool Education Facilities (A Case Study of the Khanty-Mansyisk Region) By Shmis,Tigran; Chugunov,Dmitry; Ustinova,Maria; Kotnik,Jure
  4. Management Capabilities and Performance of Firms in the Russian Federation By Grover,Arti Goswami; Torre,Ivan
  5. Informal Employment and Worker's Well-Being in the Russian Federation By Kim,Yeon Soo; Matytsin,Mikhail; Freije-Rodriguez,Samuel
  6. The Situation of Female Immigrants on the German Labour Market: A Multi-Perspective Approach By Zerrin Salikutluk; Johannes Giesecke; Martin Kroh
  7. Republic of Estonia; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  8. Agricultural abandonment and recultivation during and after the Chechen Wars in the northern Caucasus By He Yin; Van Butsic; Johanna Buchner; Tobias Kuemmerle; Alexander V. Prishchepov; Matthias Baumann; Eugenia V. Bragina; Hovik Sayadyan; Volker C. Radeloff
  9. Republic of Kazakhstan; 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report By International Monetary Fund
  10. Fiscal Incidence in Moldova : A Commitment to Equity Analysis By Cojocaru,Alexandru; Matytsin,Mikhail; Prohnitchi,Valeriu
  11. Republic of Estonia; 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Estonia By International Monetary Fund
  12. Republic of Uzbekistan; Technical Assistance Report-Monetary and Financial Statistics Mission (July 17-August 2, 2019) By International Monetary Fund
  13. Poverty, Vulnerability, and Household Coping Strategies during the 2015-16 Recession in Belarus By Bornukova,Kateryna; Cojocaru,Alexandru; Matytsin,Mikhail; Shymanovich,Gleb
  15. What Determines the Size of Public Employment ? An Empirical Investigation By Herrera Aguilera,Santiago; Munoz,Ercio

  1. By: Matytsin,Mikhail; Popova,Daria; Freije-Rodriguez,Samuel
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to introduce applications of RUSMOD -- a microsimulation model for fiscal incidence analysis in the Russian Federation. RUSMOD combines household survey micro-data and fiscal policy rules to simulate the Russian tax-benefit system: the size and distribution of taxes collected and benefits paid, and the impact of the system on different population groups. Microsimulation models, such as RUSMOD, are habitually used in developed countries, and can be versatile budgetary policy tools. Using this model, the current tax-benefit system in Russia is examined. The impact of the system is measured across the income distribution, age groups, family types, localities, as well as across time. One of the applications of RUSMOD this paper aims to assess is the role of the tax-benefit system in explaining the incidence of informal employment in Russia. The paper investigates whether the existing system creates disincentives for formalization in terms of reducing disposable incomes and increasing poverty and inequality, and whether a hypothetical tax reform would be able to reduce the opportunity costs of formalization for informal workers, improve distributional outcomes, and increase fiscal revenues.
    Date: 2019–09–03
  2. By: Olga, Kuznetsova; Anna, Zakharkina; Lab, SDAG
    Abstract: Introduction. Taking into account the priorities of the state policy in the field of economic and innovative development of the Perm region, assessment of the regional potential of the digital economy, the strategic importance of economic activities implemented by SMEs for the economy of the region and the country as a whole, the actual impact of the norms on the instruments of development of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Perm region is assessed. The purpose of this study is to improve the regional regulatory platform of tools for the development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Perm region in order to gain the status of an investment-attractive region in the digital economy of the Russian Federation, taking into account the Strategy of the information society in the Russian Federation, which will ultimately contribute to the development of e-business in the Perm region, rehabilitation and competitiveness of the economy of the Perm region in the global market. Methodology. The General methodological basis of the study was the dialectical- materialistic method of cognition of legal reality, which allowed to study the tools of development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Perm region in their development, to consider the problems of tools for the integrated development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Perm region, taking into account the changed socio-economic conditions in inseparable unity with other related tools relevant to the needs of digitalization of society. Such universal scientific methods as analysis and synthesis of doctrinal and normative materials were used in the work. In addition, special legal methods were used: the method of legal modeling, which allows to design possible legal situations using digital tools for the development of small and medium- sized businesses in the Perm region; the method of systematic interpretation used in assessing the actual impact of regional norms on the tools of development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Perm region. Results. The article proposes a new tool for the development of SMEs as a regional electronic platform for the promotion of goods, works and services of SMEs in the Perm region. Attention is paid to the level of digital literacy of SMEs and consumers of their goods, works and services: the conclusion about the lack of digital competence. Conclusion. It is necessary to improve the regional regulatory platform taking into account economic trends: it is important to introduce digital competencies everywhere, including at the professional level in relation to SMEs in the Perm region, in order to increase the business activity of young people and other representatives of the working population. As for the actual introduction of new tools for the development of small and medium-sized businesses in the Perm region, we propose that the regional legislator develop a new electronic information platform at the expense of the regional budget to promote goods, works and services sold by SMEs in the Perm region. We believe that the measures proposed by us to enhance the economic activity of SMEs can be perceived by other regions.
    Date: 2019–12–28
  3. By: Shmis,Tigran; Chugunov,Dmitry; Ustinova,Maria; Kotnik,Jure
    Abstract: This paper discusses an example of an early childhood development facility intervention in the Khanty-Mansyisk region of the Russian Federation and its potential to produce efficiency gains in the region and the country overall. The government of the region is introducing changes to the built environment of its early childhood development centers. The proposed new design is based on the concept of the learning environment as a third teacher. The smaller footprint of the new buildings will increase the amount of active space per child, and the new design will include energy efficiency measures. The economic impact of these measures will reduce operating costs throughout the lifecycle of the building and provide strong evidence to education policy makers in the rest of the region and the country as a whole in favor of child-centered, healthy, and energy efficient early childhood development infrastructure.
    Keywords: Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Energy Demand,Energy Policies&Economics,Educational Sciences,Energy Consumption,Energy Conservation&Efficiency,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Hydrology
    Date: 2019–08–19
  4. By: Grover,Arti Goswami; Torre,Ivan
    Abstract: Using the management and operational practices survey in the Russian Federation, this paper finds that an average Russian manufacturing firm adopts 43 percent of the structured management practices (a score of 0.43), a value that is far from the frontier (for example, the United States scores 0.62). This average mask the wide heterogeneity in practices, where a large share of firms adopt few structured management practices and only 3.5 percent of them have a score over 0.75. Consistent with the findings in other countries, better managed firms in Russia show stronger firm performance, measured as gross revenue per employee, value added per employee, total factor productivity, and employment growth. Improving the management score from the 10th to the 90th percentile is associated with an increase in sales per worker by 87 percent, value added per worker by 30 percent, and total factor productivity by 13.5 percent. What drives better management capabilities? Russian firms are similar to those in other countries, such that exporters and firms with foreign linkages are better managed. Switching from operating purely in the domestic market to being globally linked is associated with a significant increase in management capabilities. However, unlike the results in other countries, management capabilities in Russia are not associated with firm age, implying that firms do not learn to be better managed over their life cycle. This result points to the possibility of inefficient allocation of resources, such that learning and selection mechanism does not weed out the badly managed firms, perhaps due to the lack of pro-competitive forces.
    Date: 2019–09–04
  5. By: Kim,Yeon Soo; Matytsin,Mikhail; Freije-Rodriguez,Samuel
    Abstract: This paper finds that informal workers are more likely to have inferior work conditions, but do not necessarily report worse subjective well-being. Starting with lower wages, but also with less regularity of hours and paid vacation, informal workers have higher incidence of envelope payments than formal workers but not of hazardous or unstable jobs. After controlling for work conditions, informal workers do not have statistically significantly lower job satisfaction and under no specification are informal workers more likely to self-assess worse health than formal workers. Finally, there is some association between informal employment and household poverty and life satisfaction, but it is not robust to changes in econometric specification or sample composition. The authors conclude that the evidence indicates that informal employment in the Russian Federation is mostly a problem of labor productivity and the design of the social protection system, but worsening wages and some association between informality and household poverty indicate that informality may also be a social equity problem.
    Keywords: Employment and Unemployment,Rural Labor Markets,Labor Markets,Health Care Services Industry
    Date: 2019–08–20
  6. By: Zerrin Salikutluk; Johannes Giesecke; Martin Kroh
    Abstract: While general ethnic disadvantages are well documented, much less is known about coinciding disadvantages of ethnic origin and gender. Based on theoretical arguments of human capital theory, sociocultural approaches, labour market segmentation theory, and discrimination mechanisms, we investigate whether immigrant women experience more difficulties on the labour market than immigrant men, non-immigrant men and women. Using data from the German Socio-economic Panel from 2013 and 2015 we deal with interaction patterns of ethnic origin and gender regarding various labour market outcomes for immigrants from Turkey and the former Soviet Union. We analyse the impact of individual resources like education, language proficiency, and job characteristics on ethnic and gender gaps. We find evidence of additional disadvantages of immigrant women on each outcome variable that largely seem to be attributable to differences in qualifications and language proficiency. However, for women from the former Soviet Union and second-generation Turkish women specific disadvantages are apparent that cannot be explained by individual and job characteristics.
    Keywords: Labour Market, Integration, Migration, Gender, Gender Disparities
    Date: 2020
  7. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
    Keywords: Economic sectors;Human capital;Public sector;Money laundering;Poverty;ISCR,CR,CFT,AML,EFSA,on-site inspection,GPG
    Date: 2020–01–22
  8. By: He Yin (SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA); Van Butsic (Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California Berkeley, 101 Sproul Hall, Berkeley, CA 94704, USA); Johanna Buchner (SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA); Tobias Kuemmerle (Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany and IRI THESys, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany); Alexander V. Prishchepov (Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management (IGN), University of Copenhagen, Øster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 København K, Denmark and Institute of Environmental Sciences, Kazan Federal University, Kazan, Tovarisheskaya str.5, 420097, Kazan, Russia); Matthias Baumann (Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany); Eugenia V. Bragina (Wildlife Conservation Society, 2300, Southern Boulevard, Bronx Zoo, NY 10460-1099S, USA); Hovik Sayadyan (Department of Physical Geography, Yerevan State University, Yerevan, Armenia); Volker C. Radeloff (SILVIS Lab, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, Madison, WI 53706, USA)
    Abstract: Armed conflicts are globally widespread and can strongly influence societies and the environment. However, where and how armed conflicts affect agricultural land-use is not well-understood. The Caucasus is a multi-ethnic region that experienced several conflicts shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, most notably the two Chechen Wars, raising the question how agricultural lands were changed. Here, we investigated how the distance to conflicts and conflict intensity, measured as the number of conflicts and the number of casualties, affected agricultural land abandonment and subsequent re-cultivation, by combining social, environmental and economic variables with remotely-sensed maps of agricultural change. We applied logistic and panel regression analyses for both the First Chechen War (1994-1996) and the Second Chechen War (1999-2009) and interacted conflict distance with conflict intensity measures. We found that agricultural lands closer to conflicts were more likely to be abandoned and less likely to be re-cultivated, with stronger effects for the First Chechen War. Conflict intensity was positively correlated with agricultural land abandonment, but the effects differed based on distance to conflicts and the intensity measure. We found little re-cultivation after the wars, despite abundant subsidies, indicating the potentially long-lasting effects of armed conflicts on land-use. Overall, we found a clear relationship between the Chechen Wars and agricultural land abandonment and re-cultivation, illustrating the strong effects of armed conflicts on agriculture.
    Keywords: Agricultural land abandonment, armed conflict, ethnic conflict, land-use change, re-cultivation, warfare. JEL Classification:
    Date: 2019–03
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The political transition has increased the focus on social conditions and regional and rural development. Growth has been buoyed by new spending, retail credit, and oil and gas investments. Inflation has picked up, and the current account has deteriorated. Renewed fiscal consolidation is planned from 2020. Non-oil growth is expected to moderate to 4 percent (potential), as construction, fiscal stimulus, and household borrowing ease. Growth could be higher if decisive reforms drive productivity gains. The state continues to play a strong role in the economy, and the authorities face challenges ensuring that measures are well targeted and effective in promoting private sector growth. The challenges include oil volatility and dependency, reliance on subsidies and other state support, still-impaired banks, and governance vulnerabilities. The authorities are exploring ways to strengthen the fiscal framework, assessing monetary and exchange policies, undertaking a bank asset quality review (AQR), and establishing an independent financial sector regulator. Progress is being made on headline reforms, but ensuring decisive changes on the ground remains a challenge. Risks relate to oil prices and trading partner growth.
    Date: 2020–01–29
  10. By: Cojocaru,Alexandru; Matytsin,Mikhail; Prohnitchi,Valeriu
    Abstract: This paper uses methods developed by the Commitment to Equity Institute and data from the Household Budget Survey to assess the effects of government taxation and social spending on poverty and inequality in Moldova. The paper presents the first detailed distributional analysis of the tax and expenditure sides of the fiscal system, examining in particular the contribution of different taxes and transfers to poverty and inequality reduction in Moldova, as well as the cost-effectiveness of different taxes and transfers in achieving these poverty and inequality reduction goals. The analysis finds that the tax-benefit system in Moldova is quite pro-poor and has a significant effect on poverty and inequality, with the poverty reduction effect being stronger for lower poverty thresholds. Pensions provide much of the poverty-reducing effect, which is not surprising, given that in an aging society like Moldova, pensions are the main income source for many households. Direct transfers are also quite effective in reducing poverty and are also efficient, providing a relatively high degree of poverty reduction per dollar allocated to these programs, but their overall effect on poverty is muted by their small budgetary allocations.
    Date: 2019–09–13
  11. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Th economy has performed well in recent years, supported by prudent management and effective structural reforms. Growth remains strong and unemployment is at a record low. Inflation is above the euro-area average, consistent with Estonia’s convergence process. Wages are rising, reflecting a tight labor market and skill shortages at the high end of the labor market. Absent reforms to boost productivity and manage demographic challenges, however, growth will slow notably. The authorities need to guard against potential overheating in the near term while taking advantage of sizable fiscal buffers in the medium term to support innovation and labor supply and reduce inequality.
    Keywords: External sector;Financial crises;National income;Financial markets;Financial soundness indicators;ISCR,CR,AML,CFT,wage growth,text figure,GDP
    Date: 2020–01–22
  12. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: At the request of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU), and with the support of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD), a monetary and financial statistics (MFS) technical assistance (TA) mission visited Tashkent, Uzbekistan, during July 17–August 2, 2019. Its main objectives were to assist the authorities in (i) introducing a country page for Uzbekistan in International Financial Statistics (IFS) with data for the central bank and other depository corporations (ODCs) based on the standardized report forms (SRFs), with complete coverage of the sector and in line with the methodology of the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (MFSMCG); (ii) producing historical series for the central bank and ODC surveys based on SRFs; (iii) developing an integrated monetary database (IMD), which can be used by the authorities for data dissemination and data reporting to the IMF for publication in IFS and surveillance purposes; (iv) working towards the compilation of a quarterly other financial corporations (OFC) survey; (v) reconciling monetary and fiscal data; and (vi) reviewing the quality of Uzbekistan’s financial soundness indicators (FSIs) and expanding their list to the full set of core and additional FSIs for deposit takers (DTs).
    Keywords: Financial institutions;Financial instruments;Financial systems;Central banks;Central bank accounting;ISCR,CR,CBU,DTs,UZS,OFCs,source data
    Date: 2020–01–23
  13. By: Bornukova,Kateryna; Cojocaru,Alexandru; Matytsin,Mikhail; Shymanovich,Gleb
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the recent recession in Belarus on poverty and broader measures of household welfare and compares the recent recession episode to previous economic crises in Belarus. The paper constructs a measure of vulnerability to poverty, based on an estimated probability of falling below the national poverty threshold not exceeding 10 percent, which is estimated for each year of the household survey data between 2014 and 2017. The analysis finds that the recession of 2014-16 was qualitatively different from earlier recent crisis episodes (2008-09 and 2010-11) in that it affected low-income households to a much greater extent, and the negative welfare effects lingered. The paper also documents that although the recession did not result in a substantial increase in absolute poverty by the official definition, it led to a considerable increase in the share of households that are vulnerable to poverty. The greater degree of vulnerability is also evident from the growing share of the population that faced a risk of poverty within a year (going in and out of poverty). Household types for which the impact of the recession was most pronounced are households with multiple children, single-parent households, residents of rural areas, as well as those who were not employed, partly employed, or low-skilled employees. Coping strategies that were employed by the population were largely related to reducing expenditures and, among vulnerable households, food expenditures in particular, as well as drawing down on their savings.
    Date: 2019–09–10
  14. By: Hamidov, Ahmad; Khamidov, Mukhamadkhan; Thiel, Andreas
    Abstract: Given the fact that water consumers associations (WCAs) in Uzbekistan were established about a decade ago in a top-down fashion to maintain on-farm water facilities, using fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis tool this paper attempted at determining sets of conditions that are necessary and sufficient to achieve an outcome. The study followed the logic of abductive approach, where sets of theories were adjusted based on the empirical field stint. Institutional economics perspective was applied to identify rural farmers’ behavior in the management of common pool resources (CPRs). The study took place in Bukhara region – southwestern part of Uzbekistan – and involved focus group discussions with members of fifteen WCAs using semi-structured interview format. Three sets of conditions (appropriate chairmanship skills [ACS], proper water allocation [PWA], and effective participatory governance [EPG]) were found to be important for explaining the outcome (improved maintenance of irrigation canals [IMC]). The analysis of necessary conditions indicated that neither condition ACS nor PWA nor EPG is necessary for IMC on its own. The same finding was apparent for the complements of the three conditions, ~ACS, ~PWA, ~EPG. In the meantime, the analysis of necessary conditions for unions of conditions (logical OR) revealed that the terms of PWA OR EPG (i.e. PWA+EPG) is necessary to achieve the outcome. However, their presence is not sufficient. The result for sufficiency analysis highlighted that no single condition alone is sufficient to achieve IMC. The results for combinations of conditions showed that the presence of ACS AND PWA AND EPG (i.e. ACS*PWA*EPG) is sufficient for achieving the outcome, IMC. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that when these conditions are present simultaneously, there is a great chance of improving CPR use within WCA territories.
    Keywords: Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, Land Economics/Use
  15. By: Herrera Aguilera,Santiago; Munoz,Ercio
    Abstract: This paper explores the determinants of public employment across the world and finds that it is negatively associated with country size (by population) and positively associated with the income level. The findings show that a country's openness to trade is positively associated with public employment in low- and middle-income countries, but inversely related in high-income countries. The estimated models are used to predict the expected public employment for a country given its income, population, and openness to trade, and to compare the actual levels with the predicted ones. In general, public employment in Latin American countries is below the predicted levels, except for Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and the República Bolivariana de Venezuela. Public employment in the Middle East and North Africa is above the predicted levels, particularly in the Arab Republic of Egypt and the Islamic Republic of Iran. East Asian and Pacific countries'public employment is significantly below the predicted levels, particularly in Hong Kong SAR, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Mongolia. Countries in Europe and Central Asia show higher than predicted public employment, mostly in Romania, Denmark, Sweden, Armenia, and Belorussia. Public employment in Sub-Saharan Africa appears to be below the predicted levels, with the notable exceptions of Botswana and South Africa. The deviations from predicted levels are positively correlated with the union density rate, which is negatively associated with private employment rates. Finally, the study finds no statistical association between public and private employment, suggesting the absence of crowding-out in the employment levels.
    Keywords: International Trade and Trade Rules,Public Sector Administrative and Civil Service Reform,Democratic Government,Public Sector Administrative&Civil Service Reform,Administrative&Civil Service Reform,De Facto Governments,Employment and Unemployment
    Date: 2019–08–06

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.