nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒12‒23
eighteen papers chosen by

  1. Studying the banking industrys stability trought market concentration indices By Pushkareva, Lyudmila; Kuzmin, Evgeny Anatol'evich; Chunikhin, Sergey
  2. Efficiency of using agricultural land in Kazakhstan By Aigul Yerseitova; Sara Issakova; Leila Jakisheva; Almarа Nauryzbekova; Altynay Moldasheva
  3. National Identity of Mass Media: Retrospective Study of the Russian Language Mass Media Prevalence in Eastern Europe By Pushkareva, Lyudmila; Kalinina, Anna; Rybakova, Anna
  5. Firms' Efficiency, Exits and Government procurement contracts By Evguenia Bessonova
  6. Peculiarities of housing market: dynamics of housing availability in Ukraine By Valerii O. Omelchuk
  7. L’internationalisation des marchés en productions animales By Vincent Chatellier
  8. Teamwork management in Creative industries: factors influencing productivity By Jūratė Černevičiūtė; Rolandas Strazdas
  9. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-Enhancing the Medium-Term Budget Framework and Preparing Expenditure Baseline By International Monetary Fund
  10. Sanctions and counter-sanctions : What did they do? By Barseghyan, Gayane
  11. Idiosyncratic shocks: estimation and the impact on aggregate fluctuations By Svetlana Popova
  12. The Growing Importance of Russia in the Wheat Market By Sowell, Andrew
  13. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-Fiscal Decentralization and Legal Framework for Fiscal Risk Management and Medium-term Budgeting By International Monetary Fund
  14. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-Public Investment Management Assessment By International Monetary Fund
  15. Die Lohnentwickung in den Westbalkanländern, Moldau und der Ukraine By Vasily. Astrov; Sebastian. Leitner; Isilda Mara; Leon Podkaminer; Hermine Vidovic
  16. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-Distributed Profit Tax; Voluntary Disclosure of Assets; and BEPs Implementation By International Monetary Fund
  17. Ukraine; Technical Assistance Report-Medium-Term Budget Framework and Fiscal Risk Statement By International Monetary Fund
  18. Convergence and growth decomposition: an analysis on Lithuania By Mariarosaria Comunale; Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen; Soroosh Soofi-Siavash

  1. By: Pushkareva, Lyudmila; Kuzmin, Evgeny Anatol'evich; Chunikhin, Sergey
    Abstract: The optimal market structure is one of the fundamental issues of economic theory. At that, companies’ efficiency in the market is associated with resource availability as a whole and finance resources, in particular. The structure of the banking market in terms of commercial loans determines a number of parameters of the economic system, such as its stability, growth potential, entrepreneurial activity, the state of commodity markets, the competitiveness of companies, etc. A comparative analysis of countries in terms of the ratio of commercial loans to GDP allows us to identify promising markets and strategic avenues for the development of the global banking industry and investment policy. However, a lack of regular and timely statistical reviews often impedes the identification. With the view to performing a comparative analysis for the EA/ЕU macroregion, the authors attempt to establish the types of the banking market in Russia based on a fuzzy rank approach using the probability theory. Using the data for 2009–2018, the authors assess bank concentration in Russia by a number of indicators. During the period under review, the volume of commercial banking lending in Russia experienced a steady increase. At the same time, there is a clear downward trend in the number of banks; several local “breakdowns” happen once every two years, i.e. the compression rate is reducing. Within the framework of the accepted gradation, the values of concentration indices taken separately do not allow arriving at a firm conclusion, since they indicate contradictory statuses of the sectoral market type. The integrated approach proposed in the paper helped find that, despite a relatively large number of participants in the Russian banking market, it should be primarily identified with a monopoly. At that, the values of the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and standard concentration fall within the oligopoly boundaries. This indicates the fuzzy nature of the sectoral market. The empirical results obtained are of use when analyzing competition, developing antimonopoly regulation measures, adjusting the banking sector development strategy and investment policy.
    Keywords: sectoral concentration; competition; stability; banking industry; commercial lending; economic growth; Russia; EA/ЕU macroregion
    JEL: D40 G21 M20
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Aigul Yerseitova (M. Kh. Dulati Taraz State University); Sara Issakova (M. Kh. Dulati Taraz State University); Leila Jakisheva (M. Kh. Dulati Taraz State University); Almarа Nauryzbekova (M. Kh. Dulati Taraz State University); Altynay Moldasheva (M. Kh. Dulati Taraz State University)
    Abstract: The paper evaluates the use efficiency of agricultural land in the Republic of Kazakhstan using physical and relative measures, as well as a consolidated criterion defined as the volume of gross output of crops per 100 ha of agricultural land. The assessment of agricultural land use was conducted in the period between 2012 and 2016, after which the acquired results were benchmarked against the results of 1990. That year was set as a reference point since it gives an indication of the Republic's achievements in agriculture while it was still part of the USSR. The undertaken analysis has shown that between 2012 and 2016, most agricultural land use metrics tended to have a positive dynamic. Despite that, the country has never regained the agricultural performance level it had back in 1990. The agricultural land use score according to the consolidated criterion has also demonstrated an insufficient land use performance compared to Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. The approved ABI Growth Government Program for 2017-2021 outlines efforts aimed at the efficient utilization of the country's land resources, helping boost the output of domestic products.
    Keywords: land,agricultural land,efficiency metrics for land resources use,cropland,crop yield,gross yield of plant and livestock products,efficiency,performance
    Date: 2018–12–30
  3. By: Pushkareva, Lyudmila; Kalinina, Anna; Rybakova, Anna
    Abstract: The research focuses on the issues, concerning the national identity of mass media in the era of globalization. It was the attempt to examine the linguistic situation in the multi-ethnic society, which consists of clearly defined groups of national minorities. Revealing the problems and consequences of language groups’ shift through mass media became the main objective of the research. The retrospective data on the Russian language mass media prevalence in the Eastern European countries (for example, of Estonia) were used as an analytical background. In Estonia, almost half of the Russian-speaking population cannot follow mass media due to limited knowledge of the language. These particularities for 1998-2013 were described in this article. The obtained results led to the conclusion that the major part of the Russian-speaking population of Estonia mainly follows the Russian television channels and, therefore, is more integrated in the Russian information realm than in Estonian. The multidirectional dynamics of mass media activity on prevalence was revealed. The contradictions between the Russian and Estonian mass media, Estonia and the EU on multilingual social mass media role were highlighted in the article
    Keywords: globalization, mass media, media-space, language groups, national identity, ethnic issues
    JEL: N9
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Natalia N. Karmaeva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Natalya V. Rodina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Vocational schools are involved in partnerships with employers to generate extra resources and in the implementation of high-stake accountability reforms in Russia. We examine school capacity in the top-down implementation of performance-related pay (PRP) in Russia. We consider two cases of collaboration between schools and local employers that are either highly or loosely integrated with different companies. We elaborate the understanding of the resource and productivity dimensions of school capacity embedded within the broader context of schools’ formal and informal ties. The findings indicate tensions that emerge in the implementation of a system of rewards with regard to the within schools’ trust and the trust developed with their partners and funders, educational goals, work arrangements, and the distribution of school finances generated in partnerships. These issues can be negotiated with local industrial partners at multiple levels.
    Keywords: school capacity, partnerships with employers, performance-related pay, Russia.
    JEL: I22
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Evguenia Bessonova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: This study provides evidence that productivity growth trends in Russia are similar to those in other countries where technology leaders enjoy productivity growth with a gap increasing between them and other companies. The survival analysis suggests that the most efficient firms quit the market at a faster rate than firms in other efficiency groups in the Russian economy. Survival functions of the least efficient firm do not always differ significantly from those of other companies. Results based on public procurement data provide evidence that additional financing from government contracts helps both the most and the least efficient firms to survive and shelters them from competitive pressure. In the short run, the positive effect of winning government procurement contracts for leaders seems to be only observed in their home regions, providing indirect evidence that the public procurement system does not support all types of firms with growth potential but only those affiliated with local authorities. Intervention in the mechanism of market selection through the system of public procurement could have a strong negative effect on economic growth as it provides incentives for inefficient firms without growth potential to stay in the market longer.
    Keywords: TFP growth, efficiency, productivity gap, government procurement contracts, firms’ exits.
    JEL: D24 H57 L52
    Date: 2019–10
  6. By: Valerii O. Omelchuk (National Academy for Public Administration under the President of Ukraine)
    Abstract: The article analyzes the dynamics of availability of housing for Ukrainian citizens in 1990-2017 years. The social and commercial availability of housing is investigated. The refined author's methodology for determining the commercial availability of housing was applied in the article. The actual values of social accessibility of housing in 1990-2017 years, and the commercial affordability of housing in 2011-2017, as well as trends in their dynamics are defined also. It is shown that the coefficient of social availability of housing has promptly fell from 1990 to 2010 years, and in 2011-2017 it has reached a critical low level. This proves that the government of Ukraine was actually discharged from the problem of social availability of housing and it has not developed modern effective tools for solving the housing problem of the poorest layer of citizens, who really need social housing. It is revealed that the mechanism of bank mortgage lending evolves in the direction opposite to the increase of affordability of housing. This indicates the need for radical changes in the state regulation of the mentioned mechanism. It is proposed to introduce new mortgage institutes in Ukraine, particularly, such as savings and credit, and to adapt the best examples of foreign experience for the sphere of state housing policy with the purpose of real increase of the level of availability of housing for Ukrainian citizens.
    Keywords: availability of housing,social housing,housing problem,mortgage loan,state housing policy Additional disciplines: law,political sciences
    Date: 2018–12–30
  7. By: Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST)
    Abstract: Animal production accounts for 16 % of the international agri-food trade. The growing imbalance between supply and demand for animal products in Asian countries, where consumption is growing, particularly in China, is boosting trade for the benefit of the major exporting countries: the European Union (EU), the United States, New Zealand, Brazil and Australia. While this development offers trade opportunities for structurally surplus countries, purchases are not always consistent from year to year and price competition is very strong, although some countries have qualitative requirements. The EU, which has a surplus in dairy products and pig meat, but is deficient (in value) in beef and poultry meat, is the world's largest exporter of animal products (with 22 % of the total, excluding intra-EU trade in 2016). This article deals with the evolution of trade in animal products using customs statistics data (BACI and COMEXT) from 2000 to 2016. It presents the evolution of international trade for different types of goods (dairy products, beef, pig meat, poultry meat) and highlights the trade trajectories of the main deficit countries (China, Japan and Russia) and the main surplus countries (India, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, the United States and the EU).
    Abstract: Les productions animales représentent 16 % du commerce agroalimentaire international. Le déséquilibre croissant entre l'offre et la demande de produits animaux dans les pays asiatiques où la consommation progresse, surtout en Chine, stimule les échanges au bénéfice des grands pays exportateurs que sont l'Union Européenne (UE), les États-Unis, la Nouvelle-Zélande, le Brésil et l'Australie. Si cette évolution offre des opportunités commerciales pour les pays structurellement excédentaires, les achats ne sont pas toujours réguliers d'une année à l'autre et la concurrence par les prix est très forte, même si certains pays ont des exigences qualitatives. L'UE, qui est excédentaire en produits laitiers et en viande porcine, mais déficitaire (en valeur) en viande bovine et en viande de volailles, est le premier exportateur mondial de productions animales (avec 22 % du total, hors commerce intra-UE en 2016). En utilisant les données statistiques des douanes (BACI et COMEXT) de 2000 à 2016, cet article traite de l'évolution du commerce en productions animales. Il présente l'évolution du commerce international pour différents types de biens (produits laitiers, viande bovine, viande porcine, viande de volailles) et met en évidence les trajectoires commerciales des principaux pays déficitaires (Chine, Japon et Russie) et excédentaires (Inde, Australie, Nouvelle-Zélande, Brésil, États-Unis et UE).
    Keywords: animal product,international trade patterns,trade balance,livestock farms,international trade,net trade,production animale,commerce international,balance commerciale
    Date: 2019
  8. By: Jūratė Černevičiūtė (Vilnius Academy of Arts); Rolandas Strazdas (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University)
    Abstract: The 'experience' economy, characterizes by the growing needs for cultural identity and social empowerment, and aided by technologies of knowledge generation, information processing and communication of symbols, further reinforce this. The creative industries involve the concretization of an image, through whatever medium for some form of economic return. However, the nature of experience goods makes demand pattern unpredictable and production process difficult to control. The uncertainty of demand for the creative product, pose managerial and organizational challenges. The structure and staffing of creative projects are often temporary, as are capital investment. Success is dependent on the composition of projects teams with individuals and groups working in a highly interactive and adaptive fashioning of the product: Despite this fact, a great deal of research conducted in the area of group dynamics suggests that groups are often much less creative and productive than they are usually assumed. The important question of how to manage creative teams to achieve a high productivity with limited resources and time arises in innovation management both from the theoretical and practical points of view. There is still no clarity which factors affecting productivity of teamwork are more important than others. The study was aimed at the identification most important factors for the productivity of teamwork. The survey of 113 student creative teams in 8 counties (Lithuania, Poland, Canada, China, France, Italy, Russia, and Denmark) was performed. Based of the findings the hierarchy of the significance of the factors influencing the productivity of teamwork is established and described in the article.
    Keywords: collective creativity,teamwork,efficiency in creativity,creative industries
    Date: 2018–12–30
  9. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Ukraine has made good progress over the past three years in implementing reforms to strengthen medium-term budget planning and improve the quality of public spending. Following amendments to the Budget Code in late 2018, a medium-term budget framework (MTBF) has been adopted. A Budget Declaration, covering 2020 to 2022 was submitted to Cabinet, outlining medium-term fiscal prospects and expenditure ceilings for key spending units. To strengthen accountability and spending outcomes, multi-year performance targets for programs were included in the Budget Declaration and spending reviews have been initiated in five ministries. Still, there are several technical aspects of MTBF implementation that, if not handled carefully, have the potential to undermine the effectiveness of these important reforms.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy;Price indexes;Budget estimates;Fiscal space;Budgetary process;ISCR,CR,medium-term,budget process,baseline,MTBF,KSU
    Date: 2019–11–25
  10. By: Barseghyan, Gayane
    Abstract: Taking the multilateral sanctions program launched against Russia in 2014 as a case study, this paper investigates the economic effects of sanctions and counter-sanctions on a target economy. A synthetic control method for comparative case studies is employed to construct counterfactuals. The estimation results demonstrate that in Russia following sanctions and counter-sanctions real GDP per capita, FDI net in flows and income inequality fell, while the ban on agricultural and food imports introduced by Russia boosted the domestic agricultural sector, resulting in higher agricultural productivity and farm worker incomes. Various placebo studies confirm the significance of obtained estimates. Results are robust to random donor samples.
    JEL: C33 F51 O50
    Date: 2019–12–09
  11. By: Svetlana Popova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: Recently, economic granularity has been the focus of researchers' attention. Latest empirical works evaluate the granularity of various economies in terms of whether shocks to individual companies can affect volatility of macroeconomic variables. Studies of developed countries show that a large part of aggregate fluctuations arises from idiosyncratic shocks to companies because of their size or close linkages between them. Using the microdata of Russian firms on sales over the period from 1999 to 2017, we test the hypothesis that the Russian economy is granular. Here we found that idiosyncratic shocks contribute significantly to total sales volatility. It was also revealed that the effect of linkages is more important in aggregate volatility estimation, but not for the top-100 largest firms. These findings are important for understanding business cycle drivers and for estimation the impact of macroeconomic policies.
    Keywords: firm-level dynamics, granular residuals, idiosyncratic shocks, aggregate fluctuations, industrial production.
    JEL: D20 E32 L14
    Date: 2019–09
  12. By: Sowell, Andrew
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management
    Date: 2019–02
  13. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: In the aftermath of Euromaidan revolution early 2014, the public demand for local selfgovernment and devolution of power, brought fiscal decentralization to the top of the reform agenda. As a result, a decentralization reform was introduced in late 2014, which helped to improve subnational government’s financial capacity, self-sufficiency, and flexibility. The reform resulted in an overall improvement of subnational government finances. Compared with 2014, own revenues of subnational governments increased, while current expenditure declined. This created additional space for capital expenditure, which almost doubled as a percent of GDP, from 2014 to 2016. Overall subnational governments recorded a combined surplus of 1.0 and 0.7 percent of GDP in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Despite these significant reforms and positive fiscal outcomes, Ukraine’s subnational finance system is still facing important challenges, which are described below, together with proposed measures to address them.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy;Treasury management;Tax policy;National budgets;Public finance;ISCR,CR,subnational,SNG,local budget,MTBF,expenditure responsibility
    Date: 2019–11–25
  14. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Ukraine’s public capital stock has been on a declining path over the last 20 years. Having started the period at a relatively high level (99 percent of GDP in 1996), it now ranks amongst the lowest of its comparator countries (56 percent in 2013). Evidence as to the reasons for the deterioration point to significant and persistent weaknesses in the institutional framework surrounding public investment management, inefficient allocation of resources to productive public investment and high levels of perceived corruption. Ukraine currently has an efficiency gap of around 32 percent, which ranks it below average amongst emerging market countries and other comparators. Persistent under-investment, the currently high stock of debt, and ongoing institutional weaknesses, coupled with effects of the conflict in the East could see this gap continuing to grow, absent concerted efforts to reverse recent trends.
    Date: 2019–12–04
  15. By: Vasily. Astrov; Sebastian. Leitner; Isilda Mara; Leon Podkaminer; Hermine Vidovic
    Date: 2019
  16. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The mission examined the latest proposal to substitute the current Corporate Profit Tax (CPT) for a Distributed Profit Tax (DPT), in Ukraine also referred to as the Exit Capital Tax (ECT). The mission did not find any new elements to change the position expressed in FAD’s previous technical report on tax policy (May 2017): the proposal is bad tax policy, detrimental for Ukraine on several fronts.
    Keywords: Tax revenue;Tax evasion;Tax incentives;Tax exemptions;Tax assessments;ISCR,CR,related party,DPT,BEPS,SFS,tax treaty
    Date: 2019–11–25
  17. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: To strengthen the medium-term orientation of the budget, the authorities have committed to implement a full-fledged medium-term budget framework (MTBF) as part of their Public Financial Management Reform Strategy (2017–21). A pilot MTBF exercise was launched for the 2018 budget cycle, which will inform the roll-out of a more complete MTBF in 2019. The development of the MTBF has been supported by several FAD technical assistance missions in recent years, including in April this year. The 2018–20 draft Budget Declaration, submitted to the Cabinet of Ministers on June 1, is a major step forward in terms of establishing a medium-term orientation to budget planning. For the first time, important elements of a MTBF were included in the budget documentation, including the presentation of detailed medium-term macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts and expenditure ceilings for 2018–20.
    Keywords: Social security funds;Risk management;Financial statements;Fiscal policy;Fiscal space;ISCR,CR,SOEs,MTBF,KSU,cmu,medium-term
    Date: 2019–11–15
  18. By: Mariarosaria Comunale (Bank of Lithuania); Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen (Bank of Lithuania, ECB); Soroosh Soofi-Siavash (Bank of Lithuania)
    Abstract: We study the behaviour of Lithuania relative to other 25 EU countries, looking specifically at convergence in terms of GDP per capita and its growth accounting components: capital accumulation, labour and its subcomponents, i.e. participation and employment, and the Total Factor Productivity (TFP). We find that Lithuanian Real GDP per capita shows indeed a convergence path similar to the other Baltic States and they all belong to the second club (includes part of the periphery and the other new member states). The convergence paths of labour or capital accumulation do not seem significantly different compared to the ones of other EU members. The Lithuanian transition path in TFP has become plateau after the crisis but this is seemingly not a divergence factor. Two components show noticeable changes in behaviour after 2010: the growth in total factor productivity (TFP) considerably slows down, and the employment-population ratio appears to increase accounting for around one third of the annual GDP growth in Lithuania. In addition, we explore several transition scenarios for Lithuania to the EU-25 average.
    Keywords: Lithuania, convergence, economic integration, GDP per capita, TFP, capital, labour
    JEL: O47 F15 F45
    Date: 2019–12–13

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