nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒11‒25
fifteen papers chosen by

  2. The Restructuring Process of Rural Russian Karelia A Case Study of Two Karelian Villages By Varis, Eira
  3. The Restructuring of Peripheral Villages in Northwestern Russia By Varis, Eira
  4. Economic Reform and Its Interpretations in Russia By Yevstigneyev, Ruben N.; Voinov, Arkady M.
  5. Production Aspects of Russian Transition By Vurobyov, Alexander Yu.
  6. The Impact of EU’s Trade Sanctions Against Russia on Western Countries Exports By Berg-Andersson, Birgitta
  7. Childcare availability and maternal labour supply in Russia By Kazakova, Yuliya
  9. Fundametal Economic and Social Change The Case of Kyrgyzstan 1993-97 By Heinrich, Georges
  10. Political Feasibility of Enhancing the Russian Emissions Reduction Target Under the Paris Agreement By Imtenan Al-Mubarak; Saleh Al Muhanna; Zlata Sergeeva
  11. Economics of Nuclear Power Plant Investment: Monte Carlo Simulations of Generation III/III+ Investment Projects By Ben Wealer; Simon Bauer; Leonard Göke; Christian von Hirschhausen; Claudia Kemfert
  12. The J-curve is a Gamma-curve Initial welfare Consequences of Price Liberalization in Eastern Europe By Roberts, Bryan W.
  13. Spontaneous Privatization in the Soviet Union By Johnson, Simon
  14. Privatization in the Countries of Eastern and Central Europe and of the Former Soviet Union By Sutela, Pekka
  15. Economic Reform in the USSR By Skorov, Georgy

  1. By: Galina L. Volkova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Egor A. Nikishin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Mobility of highly qualified personnel between countries and regions is closely related to the issue of the effective distribution of human resources and the prospects for the innovative development of the state. The focus of this study is the interregional mobility of Russian researchers: the geographical movements of scientists between different regions (subjects of the Russian Federation). The empirical base of the study is the data obtained in 2016-2017 during the questionnaire survey of 1880 Russian researchers. Two main aspects are analyzed: already accomplished movements of researchers (moving for the educational or working purposes) and the “attitude to mobility” - readiness to move in the future. The features of researchers depending on their mobility pattern are analyzed. Among the most researchers who had the experience of moving in the past (both for education and work purposes) develops the “attitude to mobility”. In the future, they are more willing to consider various options for moving both “for interest” (to participate in an important large-scale project), and “for money” (to get the job with acceptable level of remuneration). There exists a category of Russian researchers who are ready to move “anywhere”: both abroad and within Russia, to large and to small cities. Researchers who are not ready to move to the place that they consider as a small town in a remote region, are concerned about the prospects for professional growth, difficulties for the family, a different lifestyle, change of professional and personal social circle. These aspects should be taken into account in the development of various programs and measures aimed to stimulate internal academic mobility in Russia.
    Keywords: academic mobility, human capital, researchers, scientific career, mobility patterns, readiness to move
    JEL: I23 J61 O15
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Varis, Eira
    Abstract: Russia is currently under extensive social and economic change. Thus, the formation of new modes of production in Russia has become apparent. This process is reflected in social change at the local level. The development process, which has led to the current situation, consists also of the sequence of changes in the history of the Soviet Union and Russia.
    Keywords: International Development
  3. By: Varis, Eira
    Abstract: This paper, The Restructuring of Peripheral Villages in Northwestern Russia, explores the recent socio-economic restructuring of rural areas of the Karelian Republic in the Russian Federation. The change is illustrated by two case-study villages.
    Keywords: International Development
  4. By: Yevstigneyev, Ruben N.; Voinov, Arkady M.
    Abstract: The paper in this booklet, 'Economic Reform and its Interpretations in Russia', written by two distinguished Russian economists is one of the pilot papers of the project on the Evolving New Market Economies in Europe and Asia.
    Keywords: International Development
  5. By: Vurobyov, Alexander Yu.
    Abstract: Economic reform in Russia is one of the most illuminating and educating orthodox stabilization experiences in completely non-market institutional environment. Thus it demonstrates extremely well all effects and constraints of orhtodox therapy in society subject to structural distortions and external shocks. In such a society "irrational" from the point of view of economic common sense behavior of many variables and parameters as well as weak effects of price signale sometimes make theoretic equations useless or diminish considerably their explanatory power. Unpredictable reactions of economic agents and macro-aggregates aggravate chaos in economic system which in turn hampers its transition toward some sort of stable trajectory. Chaos inadequate effects of governmental policy (especially taking into account its objectives) has as we can see in Russia very vulnerable consequences.
    Keywords: International Development
  6. By: Berg-Andersson, Birgitta
    Abstract: Abstract EU’s trade sanctions against Russia came into force 1.8.2014. Sanctioned products were exported to Russia at a value of 22 billion euros during the time period 2001–2017. The most important exporting countries were Ukraine, China, South Korea, Germany and the United States. Exports of banned products from a country to Russia may be very high in some years and very small in other years. Some products have been exported even during the years 2015–2017 at a value of 2,2 billion euros because export contracts which were made before 1.8.2014 are still in force and the ban on exports of sensitive technology concerns only products, the destination of which is forbidden projects in the oil sector. The exports of the sanctioned products from the whole world to Russia fell substantially in the year 2015 from 1,6 billion euros in the previous year to 0,7 billion euros, which corresponded to the level in 2005. Finland exported banned products to Russia during the years 2001–2017 at a value of 0,57 billion euros. In the years 2010–2011, there were exceptionally big deliveries at a value of 0,2 billion euros. In relation to our total export of goods to Russia, this accounted for a share of 6,6 percent in the year 2010, the corresponding share for the whole world was one percent. In the other years before the sanctions, Finland’s percentage share has been substantially smaller than the average share of the whole world and after they have been imposed Finland’s share has fallen less than in other countries. We draw the conclusion that Finland has suffered less from the trade sanctions than the rest of the world on average.
    Keywords: Trade sanctions, EU, Russia, Exports, Arms
    JEL: F13 F14
    Date: 2019–11–11
  7. By: Kazakova, Yuliya
    Abstract: Over the past 15 years, Russia experienced an increase in childcare enrolment from 55% to 66.2%, reflecting an increase in childcare availability that was rolled out unequally across the Russian regions - the enrolment rate has increased from less than 1% in some regions to almost 35% in other regions. Exploiting a substantial variation in childcare availability across regions over time, this paper uses the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey to evaluate the impact of extending childcare availability on mothers' labour outcomes. I find that an increase in childcare availability has a positive and significant effect on maternal employment both at the intensive and the extensive margins and the effects are higher for partnered mothers. A set of robustness checks confirm the validity of the identification strategy and the results.
    Date: 2019–11–18
  8. By: Alevtina Repina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Artificial intelligence is having a transformative effect on the business world. Among others, legal services industry is susceptible to these transformations, but being a part of the legal system, it adopts novelties more slowly than other service-based industries. The issue of AI acceptance for legal services is widely discussed in Russia. The opportunities and threats of AI implementation are the subjects of academic research, business enquires, experts' assessments, and professional community discussions. Still, all those pieces of evidence are biased by the objectives of specific research and methodology used, mostly have no or little empirical data to ground conclusions on. The absence of empirical evidence on the state-of-the-art of AI in legal services and users’ expectations on AI implementation hinders further research in various topics – from legal firms’ management and legal innovations to the lawyering process and access to justice. This paper confirms expert opinions regarding AI technologies and their implementations for legal services, suggesting the cooperation of lawyer and AI in legal service rendering rather than competition. Russian lawyers appear to have the experience of using very advanced AI solutions, including those that are unavailable directly on the Russian market. The expectations of lawyers as users of AI technologies could be described as uncertain, which means that further extension of the AI implementation is still a disputable issue
    Keywords: artificial intelligence, legal services, users, expectations, technology adoption, survey, Russia
    JEL: O33 O14 D22
    Date: 2019
  9. By: Heinrich, Georges
    Abstract: The transition from plan to market has fundamentally transformed the social structure in Central and Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union. The small Central Asian Republic of Kyrgyzstan exemplifies these changes.Using data from nationally representative living standards measurement surveys in 1993 and 1997, changes in welfare and the social structure are analyzed. The results suggest that poverty and inequality fell between 1993 and 1997. Real welfare improvements were recorded for the poorest households and for the richest five per cent. Despite these successes, massive inequalities persist.Region and the presence of dependant household members are important correlates of welfare and social class formation. High levels of welfare in 1997 are related to entrepreneurial and capital rental activities. There is tentative evidence to support the hypothesis that the factor markets increasingly determine social structure.
    Keywords: International Development
  10. By: Imtenan Al-Mubarak; Saleh Al Muhanna; Zlata Sergeeva (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: It is widely recognized that the commitments set out in the Paris Agreement fall short of achieving the 2 degrees Celsius global warming target, agreed as the central goal of the agreement and its parties. Given this, KAPSARC has set out to explore the political feasibility of enhancing nationally determined contributions by utilizing the KAPSARC Toolkit for Behavioral Analysis (KTAB).
    Keywords: Climate Change, Geopolitics, Nationally determined contributions, Paris Agreement, KAPSARC toolkit for behavioral analysis (KTAB)
    Date: 2019–11–13
  11. By: Ben Wealer; Simon Bauer; Leonard Göke; Christian von Hirschhausen; Claudia Kemfert
    Abstract: This paper analyzes nuclear power plant investments using Monte Carlo simulations of economic indicators such as net present value (NPV) and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). In times of liberalized electricity markets, largescale decarbonization and climate change considerations, this topic is gaining momentum and requires fundamental analysis of cost drivers. We adopt the private investors’ perspective and ask: What are the investors’ economics of nuclear power, or - stated differently - would a private investor consider nuclear power as an investment option in the context of a competitive power market? By focusing on the perspective of an investor, we leave aside the public policy perspective, such as externalities, cost-benefit analysis, proliferation issues, etc. Instead, we apply a conventional economic perspective, such as proposed by Rothwell (2016) to calculate NPV and LCOE. We base our analysis on a stochastic Monte Carlo simulation to nuclear power plant investments of generation III/III+, i.e. available technologies with some experience and an extensive scrutiny of cost data. We define and estimate the main drivers of our model, i.e. overnight construction costs, wholesale electricity prices, and weighted average cost of capital, and discuss reasonable ranges and distributions of those parameters. We apply the model to recent and ongoing investment projects in the Western world, i.e. Europe and the United States; cases in non-market economies such as China and Russia, and other non-established technologies (Generation IV reactors and small modular reactors) are excluded from the analysis due to data issues. Model runs suggest that investing in nuclear power plants is not profitable, i.e. expected net present values are highly negative, mainly driven by high construction costs, including capital costs, and uncertain and low revenues. Even extending reactor lifetimes from currently 40 years to 60 years does not improve the results significantly. We conclude that the economics of nuclear power plants are not favorable to future investments, even though additional costs (decommissioning, long-term storage) and the social costs of accidents are not even considered.
    Keywords: nuclear power; nuclear financing; investment; levelized cost of electricity; monte carlo simulation; uncertainty
    JEL: Q40 D24 G00
    Date: 2019
  12. By: Roberts, Bryan W.
    Abstract: A one-good, representative consumer model of the pre-reform consumer sector of transition economies is developed. An equation is derived that permits empirical estimation of the welfare effect of price liberalization. Empirical estimates are calculated for Poland and Russia. These estimates indicate that the positive benefits of eliminating the highly inefficient distribution system completely offset the negative consequences of the fall in real income suffered as a result of stabilization and reform.
    Keywords: International Development
  13. By: Johnson, Simon
    Abstract: Many Soviet state enterprises are changing their legal form. Permissive but imprecise legislation, policy paralysis at all levels of government, the breakdown of the state supply system, and continued excess demand, have allowed managers of state firms to initiate "spontaneous privatization" -- through which managers and other individuals are effectively obtaining property rights which previously belonged to ministries, planners and the Communist Party. Spontaneous privatization often also involves fundamental changes in the organization and operations of enterprises and is rapidly rendering existing theories of Soviet managerial behavior out-of-date. The limited available evidence suggests that new property forms represent both a means to change firms contractual arrangements and an opportunity for managers and some bureaucrats to obtain property rights. There are some positive economic effects from this process, but there is also an important element of theft -- and this may have significant negative political consequences.
    Keywords: International Development
  14. By: Sutela, Pekka
    Abstract: In transition economics, privatization seems to have two basic motivations: separation of politics from the economy, and better corporate governance. While different countries have emphasized such motivations to varying degrees, it is clear that none of the privatization methods chosen is indisputably the best. Also, it has proved impossible to plan privatization in the sense that the emerging distribution of property rights has been virtually always different from the one that the authorities seem to have had in mind. Evidence of the comparative productivity impact of different privatization paths is still too fresh to allow for a final assessment. Neither do we know whether the transition economies have been basically locked into their now existing property arrangements or whether efficient markets for property title will lead to a more optimal distribution of such rights.
    Keywords: International Development
  15. By: Skorov, Georgy
    Abstract: The subject of economic reform is probably as large as the problems with which it has to deal. In order to understand why such a reform became necessary after 70 years of socialist development, it is essential to see it in historical perspective.
    Keywords: International Development

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