nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒11‒18
eighteen papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Hostility, Chance, and Reason: Clausewitz and Russian Foreign Policy in the 2008 Russo-Georgian War By Jones, Bryan Thomas
  2. Russian Federation; Fiscal Transparency Evaluation Update By International Monetary Fund
  3. Analysis of impediments to grain export from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan: Three essays By Kulyk, Iryna
  4. Проблемы и перспективы развития животноводства в Узбекистане By Наумов, Юрий; Пугач, Игорь
  5. Russian Transition - Chinese Reforms A Comparative View By Blaho, Andras
  6. Braced for Fallout from Global Slowdown By Vasily Astrov; Alexandra Bykova; Rumen Dobrinsky; Vladimir Gligorov; Richard Grieveson; Doris Hanzl-Weiss; Gabor Hunya; Sebastian Leitner; Isilda Mara; Olga Pindyuk; Leon Podkaminer; Sandor Richter; Hermine Vidovic
  7. Short- and Long-Term Determinants of Cardiovascular Mortality: An Econometric Assessment of the Working Age Population in Russia, 1965-95 By Paniccla, Renato
  8. A Russian Puzzle What Makes the Russian Economic Transformation a Special Case By Popov, Vladimir
  9. Quarterly Projection Model for Ukraine By Anton Grui; Artem Vdovychenko
  10. Inequality and Transformation of Social Structures in Transitional Economies By Mikhalev, Vladimir
  11. Реструктуризация сектора животноводства в Туркменистане By Аганов, Станислав; Кепбанов, Ёлбарс; Овезмурадов, Гурбанмырат
  12. The Determinants of Economic Performance in Transitional Economies By Jones, Derek C.
  13. Is there Convergence between the Brics and International Securitized Property Markets? By O. Akinsomi; Y. Coskun; L. A. Gil-Alana; O. S. Yaya
  14. Transforming an Economy While Building a Nation The Case of Estonia By Hansson, Ardo H.
  15. Uzbekistan: Welfare Impact of Slow Transition By Pomfret, Richard; Anderson, Kathryn H.
  16. What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation? By Ramis Khabibullin
  17. Oligopsony power in the Kazakh grain supply chain By Chezhia, Giorgi
  18. Сектор животноводства в Таджикистане: Проблемы устойчивого и сбалансированного развития By Умаров, Ходжамахмад

  1. By: Jones, Bryan Thomas
    Abstract: In 2008, the world stood in shock as Russian troops crossed over into the Republic of Georgia and seemingly annexed the sovereign lands of another nation. This five-day war directly resulted in varying levels of success and the achievement of political and military objectives for the Russian Federation. Several studies and analyses have sought to explain the actions of the Russian military and its leaders in an attempt to discern the primary influences on its current foreign policy and military strategy. However, these studies have devoted little attention towards arguably the most renowned and influential of all military theorists – Carl von Clausewitz. His tenets of philosophical and strategic thought, paired with his development of critical analysis towards the study of war, offer a remarkably relevant lens from which to view the 2008 war and more recent conflicts involving the Russian military. By utilizing Clausewitz’s own methodology of critical analysis in connection with an empirical case study on one of Russia’s recent military actions, this paper will attempt to establish an understanding of Russian foreign policy and military strategy. The research and analysis presented reveals that, contrary to modern arguments, the writings and principles of Carl von Clausewitz are anything but obsolete; when applied to the Russo-Georgian War, various principles of Clausewitzian thought aid in characterizing and explaining the actions and decisions of the armed forces and government of the Russian Federation.
    Date: 2018–05–13
  2. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Russia was one of the first countries (and first G20 country) to volunteer to pilot the IMF’s new Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE). The evaluation was conducted in October 2013 on the basis of a draft version of the IMF’s revised Fiscal Transparency Code released for consultation in July 2013. The evaluation report was finalized following comments from the authorities and internal reviews and published in May 2014. In light of feedback from consultation and experience from the pilot FTEs, the Fiscal Transparency Code (“the Code”) was further refined, approved by the IMF Executive Board, and published in June 2014.1 As part of the IMF Article IV surveillance mission in May 2019, Russia’s progress in improving fiscal transparency and responding the recommendations over the past five years was evaluated. This report provides a summary of the changes to Russia’s fiscal transparency practices since 2014 and makes recommendations for further improvements.
    Date: 2019–10–30
  3. By: Kulyk, Iryna
    Abstract: Food security has emerged high on the agenda of development agencies, policy makers and private stakeholders. As a consequence of major events affecting agricultural production such as the world food crisis of 2007-2008 which prompted skyrocketing world market prices for grains, or highly variable weather leading to harvest failures, the governments of exporting countries tend to restrict their exports with the aim of limiting domestic food price inflation and mitigating any negative impacts on their local markets. According to USDA projections to 2025, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan will further strengthen their position on the world wheat market. The countries are known to have unrealised grain production potential, deteriorated grain storage and transport infrastructure, and government interference in agricultural trade, i.e. application of restrictive measures on grain exports. The topic of trade barriers in the RUK countries remains highly relevant as demonstrated by the recent implementation of export duties for wheat in the Russian Federation. Given the highly variable weather in the RUK region as well as other changing macroeconomic factors, it is hard to predict whether the countries will restrict exports in the future. Barriers to trade can be of formal or informal nature. Formal barriers are documented in governmental resolutions, while informal barriers can stem from administrative procedures, the market structure and the institutional framework observed in the country (Deardorff and Stern, 1997). Administrative measures such as the delayed supply of wagons, additional certifications and controls, bribing, preferential access and soft budget constraints for state trading enterprises are a few examples of the informal impediments to trade observed in the RUK region. Both the formal and informal barriers described above lead to higher transaction and time costs, result in foregone opportunities for trade, damage the image of the country and provide disincentives for investments in the sector. This prevents the RUK countries from realising their potential in grain production as well as grain export. Goal of the dissertation: Thus, the general objective of this thesis is to analyse the impediments to grain exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. In order to reach this objective I have divided it into three more specific goals, which are reflected in the structure of the thesis. Each aspect is covered in a separate essay. [...]
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Наумов, Юрий; Пугач, Игорь
    Abstract: На животноводство приходится 31% от всего валового объема продуции сельского хозяй-ства Узбекистна. Данная отрасль играет большую роль в генерировании доходов сельских жителей страны, поэтому проблемы и перспективы ее развития находятся в приоритете аграрной политкии Узбекистана. За годы независимости аграрный сектор страны претер-пел существенные изменения. Основными сельскохозяйственными производителями вме-сто совхозов и ширкатов стали дехканские и фермерские хозяйства. В настоящее время более 90% всей продукции в животноводстве производится мелкими дехканскими хозяй-ствами. Основной проблемой отрасли является дисбаланс между количеством скота и объ-емом ресурсов, которые имеется для его содержания. С 1992 по 2017 годы поголовье КРС в Узбекистан увеличилось в 2.3 раза, производство мяса в 2.9 раза, удои молока в 2.7 раза. При этом посевная плщадь под кормовые культуры сократилась на 73%. Резко уменьши-лись площади пастбищ, находящихся в ведении сельскохозяйственных производителей. Фермеры и дехкане чувствуют нехватку кормов для полноценного питания и производва молочной продукции. Одним из факторов, препятствующим развитию молочного живот-новодства является слишким маленький размер основной части производителей в данном секторе. В основном молоко производится на приусадебных хозяйствах и используется для личного потребления. Мелкие производители не имеют возможности внедрять передовые стандарты зоотехники, эффективно реализовывать свою продукцию, а также закупать хоро-шие кормовые культуры. Государственная поддержка в сфере животноводства в основном осуществляется путем предоставления льготных кредитов производителям продукции животноводства и нало-говых льгот переработчикам данной продукции. По всей стране действуют ветеренарные пункты, которые осуществляют вакцинацию, лечение и искусственное осеменение КРС фермерских и дехканских хозяйств. При этом часто данные процедуры связаны с необхо-димостью нести дополнительные расходы на эту деятельность. Исскуственное осеменение использует незначительное количетво сельскохозяйственных производителей. В данном отчете раскрыты:текущее состояние, проблемы и перспективы развития молочного живот-новодства в Узбекистане. Даны рекомендации по совершенствованию государственной по-литики в этой сфере. Livestock production accounts for 31% of the total gross output of agriculture in Uzbekistan. This sector plays an important role in the generation of income of rural residents of the country, so the problems and prospects of its development are in the priority of agrarian policy in Uzbekistan. During the years of independence, the agrarian sector of the country has undergone significant changes. Dekhqan and individual farms have become the main agricultural producers instead of state farms and shirkats. At present more than 90% of all livestock production is produced by small dekhkan farms. The main problem of the sector is the imbalance between the number of livestock and the amount of resources available for its maintenance. From 1992 to 2017, the num-ber of cattle in Uzbekistan increased by 2.3 times, meat production by 2.9 times and milk yield by 2.7 times. At the same time, the sowing area for fodder crops decreased by 73%. The area of pastures managed by agricultural producers sharply decreased. Individual farmers and dekhqans feel the lack of fodder for complete nutrition and production of dairy products. One of the factors hindering the development of dairy farming is the small size of the main part of producers in this sector. Milk is mainly produced on private household plots and for personal consumption. Small producers do not have the opportunity to introduce advanced standards of zootechnics, effec-tively sell their products, as well as to purchase good fodder crops. State support in the field of animal husbandry is mainly provided through preferential loans to producers of livestock products and tax benefits to processors of these products. All over the country there are veterinary stations which provide vaccination, treatment and artificial insem-ination of cattle to farms and dekhkan farms. At the same time, these procedures are often re-lated to the need to incur additional costs for these activities. Artificial insemination uses a small number of agricultural producers. This report reveals the current state, problems and prospects of dairy farming development in Uzbekistan. Recommendations on improvement of the state policy in this sphere are given.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Blaho, Andras
    Abstract: The paper compares the Russian transition with the Chinese reforms. The concept and implications of 'transition' differ from those of 'reform'. Transition in its systemic understanding is considered as a change of the system, a shift to a new one. Reform, on the other hand, is a process which takes place within the same system. In the final analysis, they may be motivated by similar factors and can result in systemic changes. They also have a certain similarity in the sense that deliberate policy actions are needed for their implementation, requiring the active participation of government institutions. The institutional credibility and efficiency in the respective countries may, therefore, have are important influence on the outcome. Both processes depend also on the initial institutional conditions, macro- and micro economic patterns. In the burgeoning professional literature on the comparison of China and Russia, different issues have been raised, and the focus has been more on the institutional differences, the character of the process, the policies and the instruments than on the socio economic goals and outcomes. While the comparative evaluation of the success of 'transition and of the 'reforms' in a comprehensive way would require not only more precise data and well defined indicators, but also more historical perspective, in all probability one can state with relative safety that, so far, the achievements of these two very important countries of the world in the implementation of the changes have been different, whether measured in the growth of GDP and trade, in the costs and benefits for the people, in contributions to structural improvements and to the increase of international competitiveness. China proved to be more successful with reforms implemented since the late 1970s. It will be one of the tasks of the project to study the causes in depth and also to look at their future consequences in shaping the transformation of domestic life and global role of the two countries.
    Keywords: International Development
  6. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladimir Gligorov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Much of CESEE has so far weathered the slowdown in the global economy well, but signs of contagion are starting to emerge. Global economic growth is at its weakest level since the 2008-09 crisis, and there is no way that the region will be able to avoid this, given its high degree of reliance on exports and integration with Germany. Although the peak years are over, we expect a soft landing rather than an outright collapse for CESEE. Domestic demand will remain resilient, helped by strong wage growth, robust public investment, loose fiscal policy and plentiful credit. Downside risks to our projections are significant, and include a smaller post-Brexit EU budget, the fallout from global trade tensions, the impact of political developments in CESEE on institutions, and potential instability emanating from the financial sector.
    Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, Serbia, convergence, business cycle, overheating, external risks, trade war, EU funds, private consumption, credit, investment, exports, FDI, labour markets, unemployment, employment, wage growth, migration, inflation, central banks
    JEL: E20 E31 E32 F15 F21 F22 F32 F51 G21 H60 J20 J30 J61 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52
    Date: 2019–11
  7. By: Paniccla, Renato
    Abstract: This paper examines the short- and long-term determinants of the mortality due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) among the working-age population in Russia. Why Russia? Why CVD mortality? Why the working-age population? Russia is the Eastern European most affected by a rapid a sudden increase in mortality. A change which has hardly been recorded in peace time in the contemporary history. One of the main cause of such increase has been CVD mortality which has particularly been climbing rapidly among the working-age population in Russia ever since the onset of the transition and the dramatic economic and social shocks which accompanied it . Two possible explanations for this tremendous increase in adult mortality can be summarised as follows. (1) The demographic crisis is merely a 'catch-up effect' of a past trend which was interrupted by the anti-alcohol campaign. The long-term factor is identified with a time trend which explains almost all variance. This approach is very unconvincing, because the authors have not provided any plausible econometric evidence that this phenomenon really occurred. (2) The rise in mortality is due to short-term factors resulting from the problem-ridden initial phase of the transition, plus a long-term weakness in the offset variable, namely, health assets, exacerbated by the recent collapse in the provision of care through the health system. In this case, the long-term factor is not a trend, but a precise variable which could influence and constrain the short-term variation provoked by short-term shocks. This paper belongs to the second theoretical family. It attempts to specify and assess econometrically a relationship among these components over time in a 1970-94 sample. After a discussion of the theoretical model, the paper focuses on the evolution of both the dependent and explanatory variables, and then presents an estimate of the model.
    Keywords: International Development
  8. By: Popov, Vladimir
    Abstract: This paper seeks to explain, why Russian (and CIS) economic transformation was neither a shock therapy nor a gradual transition case, but instead followed a sort of middle ground inconsistent shock therapy path. It is argued that there were some objective constraints, mostly of a social and cultural nature, that prevented the policy makers from successfully implementing the classical shock therapy approach. Nevertheless, actual Russian policy during transition was far from first best feasible choice in such areas as macro-stabilization, exchange rate management, cuts in budgetary expenditure, industrial restructuring, social and labour market programmes. If current trends continue, emerging Russian capitalism is not likely to duplicate European or East Asian patterns of development, but instead may resemble somewhat the Latin American model. Poor traditions to comply with laws and regulations and low tax revenues; highly uneven distribution of wealth and income and strong social tensions; government failure in providing public goods and social transfers and in restructuring the economy through supporting the winners rather than the losers; poor investment climate, capital flight, growing foreign debt, low savings, investment, and growth - this bleak picture is the most probable option provided that the government will not proceed with major reforms. The brighter scenario implies that the government would adopt a growth strategy based on: downsizing part of the government, while making the remaining part more efficient; sound industrial policy favouring export-oriented industries; efforts to build consensus through strong social policy; measures to stimulate savings and investment (through a low exchange rate, pension system reform, increased government and foreign investment).
    Keywords: International Development
  9. By: Anton Grui (National Bank of Ukraine); Artem Vdovychenko (National Bank of Ukraine)
    Abstract: This paper introduces the Quarterly Projection Model utilized by the National Bank of Ukraine to make its regular macroeconomic forecasts and monetary policy recommendations. The model is a semi-structural representation of an open-economy New-Keynesian general equilibrium model. It captures the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in the context of the Ukrainian economy. Among the economy’s key features are the disinflation agenda, heterogeneous prices, imperfect monetary policy credibility, high openness and dollarization.
    Keywords: National Bank of Ukraine, inflation targeting, monetary policy, projection model, monetary policy transmission mechanism in Ukraine.
    JEL: C52 C53 E37 E52
    Date: 2019–09
  10. By: Mikhalev, Vladimir
    Abstract: The transition to a market economy in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (FSU) has been associated with greater inequality and social stratification. Living standards have fallen for the majority of people, unemployment and poverty are high, the distribution of assets and earnings has changed radically, and social benefits have fallen. The social distance between the 'winners' and 'losers' of the reforms has widened dramatically. This paper prepared within the UNU-WIDER project on 'Income Distribution and Social Structure during the Transition' analyses trends in social stratification and their causes with the aim of drawing social policy conclusions. Social structures have been deeply affected by macroeconomic and social-sector reforms. Privatization shifted assets towards the wealthy while changes in labour markets have led to the rise in earnings inequality. In the pretransitional socialist societies which were stratified into 'status groups' where social capital rather than economic capital—and social networks rather than market power—determined a person's status. With the transition, people's prospects in life are being increasingly determined by their possession of assets, goods and income opportunities. This study considers emerging social classes and groups—a new elite—the product of rising capitalism, and the new commercial, managerial, and professional middle classes. The large majority of the population, however, consists of blue-collar workers, farmers, and state-sector employees bearing the social costs of the transition. The bottom of the social hierarchy has enlarged due to a considerable number of socially deprived and marginalized people who fell into long-term poverty. The slowly reforming economies of the FSU have particularly high inequality and social polarization. Central Europe's transition countries have shown smaller increases in income inequality. Many professional workers there, especially the young have successfully entered the market economy. In contrast, an extremely wealthy and powerful economic elite has emerged in Russia and some other FSU countries amidst impoverishment and deprivation of a large part of the population. Social polarization has large economic costs. Thus, a more active social policy—promoting better livelihoods and more investment in human capital—could have large economic returns. But there is also a need for more effective public transfers and income redistribution policies to alleviate and reduce poverty. Social cohesion cannot be ignored.
    Keywords: International Development
  11. By: Аганов, Станислав; Кепбанов, Ёлбарс; Овезмурадов, Гурбанмырат
    Abstract: В данной статье, выполненной в рамках Проекта «Revitalising animal husbandry in Central Asia: A five-country analysis (ANICANET)», представлены сновные стадии преобразований, хода реструктуризации в животноводве Туркменистана, рассмотрены основные стратеги- ческие материалы в области национальной политики в этом секторе и полученные произ- водственные показатели по результатам их реализации в целом по стране и в разрезе регио- нов. Представлены категории сельхозпроизводителей, их роль в Секторе животноводства, результаты SWOT-анализа ситуации в животноводстве, а также рассмотрены текущая поли- тика в организации ферм и комплексов, ограничения на пути их создания, управления и их ближайшие перспективы. Среди полученных по результатам исследований выводов кратко можно указать на следующие – несмотря на высокий уровень госрегулирования и медлен- ный характер практических реформ в Сельском хозяйстве Туркменистана, за последнее де- сятилетие отмечается рост доли частного сектора в животноводстве и в целом увеличение поголовья животных и животноводческой продукции в стране, начали реализовываться значительные инфраструктурные проекты с активным привлечением предпринимателей. Анализ осуществляемых преобразований в животноводческом секторе Туркменистана поз- воляет заключить, что программы/проекты, основанные на постепенной децентрализации и государственно-частном партнерстве, имеют шансы на успех. This publication, carried out within the framework of the project "Revitalising animal husbandry in Central Asia: A five-country analysis (ANICANET)", presents the main stages of reforms, the progress of restructuring in the animal husbandry of Turkmenistan, considers the main strategic documents on national policy in this sector and statistical indicators at national and province levels. Categories of agricultural producers, their contribution to livestock sector, the results of SWOT analysis of the situation in the sector, as well as current policy on farm production are presented. Among the conclusions of the research it is possible to point out the following: despite the high level of state regulation and the slow nature of practical reforms in the agricultural sector of Turkmenistan, over the last the share of private sector in the livestock sector increased as well as the the number of livestock and livestock output. The government promoted large projects inviting private entrepreneurs in the livestock sector. The analysis of the ongoing sectoral reforms allows to conclude that the programs and projects based on gradual decentralization and public-private partnership have a chance of success.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2019
  12. By: Jones, Derek C.
    Abstract: This paper reviews empirical evidence for key matters concerning new patterns of corporate governance and the determinants of economic performance in transitional economies. Many findings reported draw on new and unusual data for large samples of firms in the Baltic Republics, Russia and Bulgaria, and sometimes the data are in the form of panels. In Russia and Bulgaria we find that privatization and early transition typically have not produced fundamental changes in inherited patterns of corporate governance but, rather, have served to strengthen managerial control. Econometric evidence for Russia, the Baltic Republics and Bulgaria points to the beneficial effects of structures that provide for some degree of employee participation and/or employee ownership. For both managerial pay systems and compensation schemes for other workers, econometric evidence of the beneficial effects of schemes which provide for earnings being related to firm performance is reported. In examining restructuring and the search for packages of policy measures that facilitate enhanced enterprise performance, consistent with theory we find evidence of the existence of positive feedback - for example between different ownership structures and forms of compensation. However, in attempting to uncover broad bundles of restructuring initiatives to date empirical work has made only limited progress. Our findings point to the importance of microeconomic factors in determining economic performance and suggests that specific institutional features are an important influence of economic outcomes in different transitional countries and that widely differing ownership structures may be most appropriate when institutional contexts vary.
    Keywords: International Development
  13. By: O. Akinsomi; Y. Coskun; L. A. Gil-Alana; O. S. Yaya
    Abstract: The BRICS market represents high growth economies. This paper empirically examines the long-run equilibrium as well as the short-run linkages between the BRICS securitized property markets and the securitized property markets in developed countries (United States, Australia and the United Kingdom). We employ fractional co-integration techniques between the BRICS property markets and the 3 developed property markets. This paper tests the hypothesis of fractional integration, our results showed no evidence of co-integration between BRICS securitized property markets and the securitized property markets of any of the developed economies in the long run, while the result only indicated that the BRICS securitized property markets is influenced by the developed economies in the short run. The implications of this study show that a portfolio of developed securitized property markets is diversifiable when added into a portfolio of BRICS securitized property markets. This is particularly significant for investors and fund analysts in other to reduce portfolio risks.
    Keywords: BRICS; Fractional Cointegration; fractional integration; Property Management; Real Estate Investment Trust
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2018–09–01
  14. By: Hansson, Ardo H.
    Abstract: Most Central and Eastern European countries are struggling with the daunting task of transforming their state-owned, centrally planned economies to a private, market-oriented basis. The newly or again independent states emerging from the collapse of the USSR and Yugoslavia and the dissolution of Czechoslovakia, face an even greater challenge. While also moving from plan to market, they must at the same time restructure their often provincial economies to ones befitting a sovereign state. For a country in the early stages of nation- and state-building, the economics of transformation are changed in two ways. First, it will face some tasks, such as the introduction of a national currency, which are not faced by the 'older' nations. Second, the precise form of steps taken by all reforming CPEs, such as privatization, is often altered by the constraints and needs of nation-building. This paper examines the specific issues faced by the new' states during this period of 'dual economic transformation', using the experience of Estonia as a case study.1 This is done in several stages. First, the main social and political factors which impact on the Estonian transformation are described. This is followed by discussions of the impact of nation-building on fiscal and monetary policy, domestic liberalization, privatization, economic restructuring, and external economic relations. Finally, the paper concludes with a discussion of how the Estonian case can or cannot be generalized to other 'new' states.
    Keywords: International Development
  15. By: Pomfret, Richard; Anderson, Kathryn H.
    Abstract: Uzbekistan is typically seen as one of the slowest reformers among the countries in transition from central planning to a market-oriented economy. This paper evaluates the welfare impact of gradual transition in Uzbekistan, asking whether it has avoided the short-term disruption associated with more rapid transition while remaining on course for long-term economic success. By the usual output criteria Uzbekistan has performed well relative to other former Soviet republics. To some extent this reflects favourable initial conditions and absence of military conflicts, but the lack of radical change contributed to the limited output decline. Whether slow reform will thwart long-term economic success is more problematic, but Uzbekistan has undertaken some reforms and these are generally in the desirable direction - unlike its neighbour Turkmenistan which has tried to avoid reforms, at least up until 1996, and is in a far less promising situation. The most interesting aspect of Uzbekistan's transition strategy has been the explicit concern with the welfare impact on those members of society least able to deal with the shift to a market-oriented economy. The paper examines the labour market, social expenditure and institutional reform strategies adopted to protect disadvantaged individuals. Although some of these measures have been ineffective (e.g. unemployment assistance) and others contain long-term dangers (e.g. the generous pension arrangements), together the social protection measures have softened the impact of transition on disadvantaged groups.
    Keywords: International Development
  16. By: Ramis Khabibullin (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: This paper investigates inflation forecasting accuracy of several real activity slack measures for the Russian economy. Several Bayesian unobservable-components models using several real activity variables were considered. I show that real-activity slacks gain no improvement in Russian inflation forecasting. This is true for the monthly and for the quarterly data. The estimation was made in the period from the beginning of 2003 to the end of 2018 for monthly data and from the beginning of 1999 to the end of 2018 for the quarterly data. Moreover, their real-times estimates are unreliable in the sense of the magnitude of their revisions.
    Keywords: Phillips curve, factor model, unobserved components model, output gap, real activity slack, Bayesian estimation
    JEL: C32 C53 E31 E32 E37
    Date: 2019–10
  17. By: Chezhia, Giorgi
    Abstract: The Kazakh grain producing and processing sectors are prominent components of the Kazakh agriculture. Production and export of grain, especially of wheat and wheat flour, has demonstrated significant annual growth after the 1990's crisis. However, the grain market is highly regulated by the government and some of the implemented policy instruments cause local grain market distortions. For example, the wheat export ban imposed by the government in 2008 triggered local wheat price fluctuations, followed by the price spikes after the ban elimination. In addition to the government interventions, the Kazakh grain sector is seriously challenged by production inefficiency, outdated production technology, low yields, limited access to financial recourses, landlocked position of the country and underdeveloped infrastructure. Furthermore, a non-competitive market structure, such as asymmetric price developments and antitrust law violations, is observed within the Kazakh grain supply chain. Evidence suggests that the grain processing sector, procuring roughly a third of the grain produced in the country, might be influencing the grain prices in Kazakhstan. Moreover, the grain sector became highly concentrated in recent years. Many processing companies exit the sector, enabling the remaining players to control the large share of the market. Therefore, the focus of this study is to analyze the structure of the grain supply chain in Kazakhstan, followed by the examination of the competitiveness of the Kazakh grain processing sector using econometric analyses. The econometric analyses are conducted within the framework of the New Empirical Industrial Organizations (NEIO). The three approaches being applied for the market power analysis are Hall's approach, General Identification Method (GIM) and Production Theoretical Approach (PTA). The results are examined and reported in combination with the analysis of the grain supply chain. [...]
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries
    Date: 2019
  18. By: Умаров, Ходжамахмад
    Abstract: В статье освещены вопросы развития животноводство в Таджикистане. По логике, статья начинается с изложением макроэкономических аспектов развития сельского хозяйства, при этом отмечается, что трансформационный спад в экономике страны оказало суще- ственное воздействие на развитии аграрного сектора. В настоящее время удельный весь сельского хозяйства в ВВП по сравнению с 1990 годом, снизится почти в 2 раза. Хотя темпы прироста валовой сельскохозяйственной продукции после 2000 год, остаются стабильно- высокими, тем не менее уровни 1990г. по целому ряду продуктов еще не достигнуты. Это относится к целому ряду животноводческих продуктов. Развитие данной отрасли отлича- ются диспропорциям и несбалансированным развитием. Очень быстрыми темпами растет диспропорция, между поголовьем скота и кормовыми ресурсами. Из года в год снижается кормоемкость летных и зимних пастбищ. Пастбищные угодья подвергаются деградации, которая во многих местах приобретает необратимый характер. Все это требует перевод животноводство на стойловое и полустойловое содержание с тем, чтобы дать пастбищам возможность на естественное восстановление зеленного покрова. В этих целях автор обос- новывает рекомендации по резкому сокращению малопродуктивных пород скота, перевод содержания КРС на стойловое содержание путем смены пород, т.е. формирования стада путем замены местных малопродуктивных пород скота на высокопродуктивные породы мясного и молочного направлений. Также, предлагаются резкое увеличении удельного веса посевов кормовых культур в структуре посевных площадей и перевода кормопроиз- водства на интенсивные основы. This publication highlights the development of livestock sector in Tajikistan. The paper begins with presentation of macroeconomic aspects of agricultural development pointing at the impact of transitional decline on the development of agricultural sector. At present, the share of agricultural sector in GDP is twice less than in 1990. Although, the growth rate of gross agricultural output after 2000 remains high the 1990 levels for a variety of products have not been reached yet. This applies to a variety of animal products. The development of this industry is characterized by imbalances and unbalanced development. The disproportion between livestock and feed resources is growing rapidly. The fodder capacity of summer and winter pastures decreases each year. Pasture land is degraded, and in many places this becomes irreversible. This requires the transfer of livestock to animal housing systems to give pastures the opportunity for natural restoration of green cover. To this end, the author recommends a reduction in unproductive livestock breeds, the conversion of cattle to stable housing by changing breeds, i.e. herd formations by replacing local unproductive breeds with highly productive meat and dairy breeds. In addition the author recommends to expand area under forage crops and to shift to intensive fodder production.
    Keywords: Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2019

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