nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒11‒11
seven papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Fundamental Factors Affecting The Moex Russia Index: Structural Break Detection In A Long-Term Time Series By Agata Lozinskaia; Anastasiia Saltykova
  3. Анализ методик оценки эффективности управления для внедрения в систему стратегического планирования на предприятиях легкой промышленности By Nikitina, Lyudmila; Shcherbakova, Darya; Flagina, Tuana
  6. Reforming Process and Consolidation in the Soviet Economy By Vernikov, Andrei
  7. The Problem of Anti-Dumping Protection and Developming Country Exports By Tharakan, P.K.M.

  1. By: Agata Lozinskaia (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anastasiia Saltykova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper studies how the influence of the fundamental factors on the Russian stock market changes retrospectively. We empirically test the impact of daily values of fundamental factors (indexes of foreign stock markets, oil price, exchange rate and interest rates in Russia and the USA) on the MOEX Russia Index over long time interval from 2003 to 2018. The analysis of the ARIMA-GARCH (1,1) model with a rolling window reveals the changes in the power and direction of the influence of the fundamental factors which are probably caused by the structural instability revealed earlier in Russia and other stock markets. The Quandt-Andrews breakpoint test and Bai-Perron test identify the number and likely location of the structural breaks. We find multiple breaks probably associated with dramatic falls in the stock market index, for example with the significant falls of the then MICEX index in the spring of 2006 and the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The results of the regression models over the different regimes, defined by the structural breaks, can vary markedly over time.
    Keywords: Russian stock market, the MOEX Russian index, fundamental factors, structural breaks, long-term time series, rolling regression, breakpoint tests
    JEL: C22 G14 G15
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Inna S. Lola (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Murat Bakeev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anton Manukov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper presents the results of measuring cross-sectoral economic and technological effects, allowing to determine the degree of dependence between the segments that produce digital technologies and implement them. The basis for empirical calculations was the survey data of leaders among Russian IT companies and retail organizations on the current state of digital and business activity. The purpose of the work is to identify the presence and establish the strength of the relationship between these segments in terms of existing localized industry effects, expressed in the transfer of technology from the IT segments to retail. The authors of the work identified and tested several specific hypotheses, the general meaning of which was to suggest that retail trade in the current stage of economic development in Russia is susceptible to emerging trends in the rapidly changing IT services sector that can quickly and efficiently respond to the growth of the IT companies digital activity by increasing investments in digital technologies and increasing the intensity of their application in business processes. In particular, hypotheses were tested regarding the impact of business activity in the IT services segments on the growth of electronic commerce turnover, the use of online marketplaces, Big data technologies, virtual and augmented reality technologies in retail trade organizations, as well as hypotheses suggesting a connection between the development of mobile applications in the IT segments and the use of mobile technologies, expectations regarding the growth of electronic goods turnover in retail organizations. The obtained results confirmed the majority of the hypotheses put forward, thereby supporting the authors' general assumption about the existence of specific effects of the development of the IT segments on intersectoral technological transfers, revealed the existing specifics of penetration and spread of modern technological trends in trade, and also showed that the IT is currently important component in the process of digital transformation of Russian retail trade organizations.
    Keywords: digitalization, digital technologies, IT segment, retail, cross-sectoral connections, conjuncture observations
    JEL: L81 L86 O33
    Date: 2019
  3. By: Nikitina, Lyudmila; Shcherbakova, Darya; Flagina, Tuana
    Abstract: The Aim of the article is to analyze the existing methods of assessing the effectiveness of management for further application in the strategic management of light industry enterprises. To do this, the basic concepts, approaches, principles and methods of assessing the effectiveness of management. Thanks to the synthesis, the existing methods of evaluating the effectiveness were divided into five groups. As a result of the study, a "comprehensive methodology" for the development of strategic plans for light industry enterprises in Russia is recommended
    Keywords: criteria and performance indicators, light industry, approaches and principles of management effectiveness evaluation, strategic planning, management efficiency
    JEL: L16 L52 M11 O14
    Date: 2019–03
  4. By: Igor Sheiman (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The objective of the paper is to explore the role of maximum waiting times targets in improving access to health care in the context of the country with limited financial resources. The study indicates that most of targets in Russia are unrealistically low, while institutional and operational arrangements for their implementation have not been built. Some regions of the country have started waiting times monitoring, but its coverage of providers is still limited. The estimates of actual waiting times are fragmented and unreliable. The lack of waiting time regulation and monitoring encourages the opportunistic behavior of health providers to meet the targets. Uncertainty of patients regarding actual waits is growing. Thus a waiting times guarantee is not a remedy to avoid excessive waiting times. To make it really work, we recommend: 1) to develop realistic targets of waiting times that are based on a careful evaluation of the actual indicators for each type of care, as well as the capacity to meet them; 2) to strengthen waiting time monitoring, including pooling waiting lists/waiting times information in centralized information systems, introducing a unified pattern of waiting data reporting with the clarity on the initial point of waiting times, measuring both completed and on-going waits; 3) to build accountability procedures with the involvement of all actors of health care system.
    Keywords: waiting times targets, health care guarantee, health policy, health policy implementation
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Andrei A. Ilin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The article examines views of A.I. Herzen on emotions and their role in politics. Herzen’s position on the issue of emotions traced back to the early socialist and romantic influences and interpreted in terms of “sentimentalist emotional regime” (W. Reddy). Two discussions that involved Herzen are scrutinized. The first one was a debate of the 1840s around rationality and morals in family life where Herzen advocated middle position between unrestricted capricious emotionality and moralistic rationalism represented by Hegelian T. Rotscher. It is argued that this debate noticeably influenced Herzen’s later conceptions of politics and the public sphere that came to prominence during the reforms of Alexander II. The article shows that Herzen repeated some of his previous arguments against excessive rationalism and emotional restrictions attacking Russian Hegelian B.N. Chicherin. Herzen backed sincerity in the expression of one’s emotions both in private life and in politics, challenging prevalent notions of rationality. Chicherin, on the contrary, was a strong proponent of the neutral and rationalized political sphere since he thought emotions would lead to disturbances and revolutions Concluding remarks concern ambiguous heritage of Herzen’s views on emotions that seem to be closer to his opponents than may be immediately apparent
    Keywords: A. Herzen, Russian Empire, emotional regimes, Great Reforms, B. Chicherin
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2019
  6. By: Vernikov, Andrei
    Abstract: One of the main reasons for launching a radical economic reform in the USSR is that the previous system of rigid administrative management failed to become efficient and to react adequately to internal and external developments. Disproportions and imbalances were a general phenomenon at both macro- and micro-levels. At the same time, the usual economic tools (monetary and fiscal policies, exchange rate, etc.) could not play their usual role, since there is no internal market as such in the USSR and the degree of demonetization of the economy is rather high.The process of reform-thinking in the USSR has been gaining momentum since the early-1980s. In mid-1980s it was followed by some short-term stabilization measures which tried to bring more discipline into production, to improve quality, and to solve urgent social problems. These measures, however, had only a limited effect. Since 1986 the pronouncements about reform became more radical, and they triggered the adoption of a package of legislative acts (though still incomplete) aimed at restructuring the whole economy.The key issue of the economic reform is the combination of economic centralism and autonomy. This task is extremely hard because of strong traditions of state interference in the economy, paternalism, and over-centralization of decisionmaking. The idea is that after the reform, economic agents (enterprises and firms) will have complete autonomy, self-support and self-financing. They are supposed to compete between themselves, thus breaking the monopolism of producers and a chronic "sellers' market".The intention is to create an appropriate environment for the performance of all economic agents, to develop a socialist market and to put to work its mechanisms of self-adjustment and stabilization, which will eliminate a large share of the present shortcomings. The center of economic decision-making is expected to concentrate attention on strategic issues, monitoring macro-processes, giving orientations to the market by indirect economic tools, distributing a part of total investments, implementing social programmes, etc. The planning system will play a different role than up to now, since the day-to-day operational activity of the enterprises will be out of its control.It is impossible now to predict precisely the future performance of planning and of the market. In any case, "marketization" of the Soviet economy does not. mean a complete reliance on market mechanisms in a laissez-faire sense. Nor will this country practice Darwinism in social processes, and social imperatives will always remain a criterion for appraisal of any economic policy.The reform tends to provide room for a sort of economic pluralism in the form of three sectors - public, co-operative, and individual. This will also contribute to a higher degree of individual freedom as far as the economy is concerned. At the same time, the public sector will have to prove its efficiency in practice by finding methods to overcome alienation and to realize the potential benefits of social property of the main means of production.Implementation of the reform encounters numerous short-, medium- and long-term problems. The theoretical foundations of practical policies prove to be inconsistent and compromising in some cases. The strategy is also subject to shifts in the sequence of reform steps and their radicalism. It is in essence a process of "learning by doing" that requires a flexible policy. Unfortunately, certain parts of the "package" are not synchronized enough -- e.g., reforms of pricing, planning, wages, banking and credit, taxation, and administration still lag behind, thus hindering the realization of far-reaching decisions and programmes. Discussions are just beginning around such topics as so-called "factor markets" (capital, labour), openness of the economy, etc.One must not underestimate the bureaucratic resistance to reform efforts, the enormous inertia, and the uncertainty of a considerable part of the population about the changing environment. These phenomena partly explain why the economic restructuring is not advancing fast enough, and why there was no radical change in 1987. There have been suggestions in favour of different scenarios for the pace and radicalism of the reform -- the radical one and a gradual one. Thus far a gradual evolution towards a new economic model (instead of a "shock therapy") looks more probable.Almost every month brings some new important development in the Soviet economy. Therefore, research of the implementation of the reform in the USSR should be continuous. This country's attempts to increase economic efficiency and to reinforce at the same time social guarantees for the population is of interest to others(this challenge is faced constantly by policy-makers and scholars in the developing countries). It could also be worthwhile to undertake special research in the areas of property, planning, role of the state, monetary policy, distribution, social policy in the USSR under the economic reform.
    Keywords: International Development
  7. By: Tharakan, P.K.M.
    Abstract: The most often used form of contingent protection is the anti-dumping (AD) mechanism. In 1999 the number of AD cases initiated accounted for 86.32 per cent of the total of three main types of contingent protection measures used; countervailing duty (CVD) cases launched accounted for 10 per cent; and Safeguard investigations (SG) started accounted for 3.68 per cent. But it should be noted that the CVD investigations have shown a clear increase between 1997 and 1999. Imposition of AD duties requires affirmative finding of dumping and material injury (or the threat thereof) to the like product domestic industry. The AD system used by (an increasing number of) WTO Member countries is riddled with a number of ambiguities and operational problems. A few industrialized countries accounted for nearly 90 per cent AD cases launched till early 1990s. In recent years there has been a spectacular growth and proliferation of AD investigations. The number of AD investigations launched in 1999 was more than double that of those started in 1995. Our analysis of the data shows the surprising fact that two-thirds of the anti-dumping investigations started against the small, vulnerable economies (countries with a GNP of US$ 50 billion or less and a per capita GNP of US$ 800 or less in 1997) during 1987-1997 were filed by the developing and the newly industrialized countries. The number of definitive AD measures imposed against the small vulnerable economies by the developing countries and newly industrialized countries was slightly greater than those taken by the industrialized countries. So the proliferation of anti-dumping measures has clearly worked to the detriment of small, vulnerable economies. The narrow definition of the product in AD investigations increases the probability of finding dumping and injury. The decision to 'construct normal value' increases the room for administrative discretion. Non-market economies are particularly vulnerable. Market shares of vulnerable low income economies, and vulnerable lower middle income countries are sometimes cumulated with those of co-respondents like USA, Russia and Brazil. This is a perfectly legitimate practice under WTO rules, but it substantially increases the probability of affirmative injury finding. In most jurisdictions, systematic counterfactual analysis is not used in calculating the injury margin. The public interest clause seems to give greater weight to the producers interests than those of the users. To use the anti-dumping system as a tool to facilitate the transition to a liberalized trade regime is a very risky strategy. Neither the retaliatory use of the AD mechanism, nor pleading for special and preferential treatment are the roads which small vulnerable economies should take. They have much to gain by trying to build a broad coalition not only with like-minded governments but also with potential partners in different Member states (consumers' organizations, big retail chains, manufacturers with offshore production facilities) who seem to be concerned about the adverse effects of anti-dumping measures. The first best option would be to dismantle the AD mechanism as a separate trade policy unit and merge the defendable elements of it with the competition policy units of the Members. If this is not politically feasible, various 'fall back positions' could be considered. The scope of the AD system could be limited to monopolizing dumping (particularly predatory cases) alone. Progressive replacement of the AD system with a flexible Safeguard system is a suggestion, which in spite of the criticism it has attracted, deserves serious consideration. In the meantime small vulnerable economies could try to find common ground with other Members and attempt to modify at least the most objectional features of the system such as the cumulation of market shares of the respondents and the lack of counterfactual analysis in the injury determination. The public interest consideration should be seriously taken into account by estimating the inJury of AD decisions not only to the producers but to the economy as a whole. In addition, some of the proposals put forward by practitioners for change on specific points in the Anti-dumping Agreement, deserve consideration. Policy proposals of the type outlined above are economically consistent and defendable without resorting to special interest arguments. And they could serve the interest of all Members and certainly those of small, vulnerable economies.
    Keywords: International Development

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