nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒10‒21
seven papers chosen by

  1. Модели зависимости реального курса рубля от цены и стоимости экспорта нефти: сравнительный анализ By Shumilov, Andrei
  2. Acquiring ?green? competencies in the study process By Dzintra Atstaja
  3. Are there asymmetries in the interaction between housing prices and housing credit? Evidence from a country with rapid credit accumulation By Juan Carlos Cuestas; Merike Kukk
  4. The impact of economic policy uncertainty and commodity prices on CARB country stock market volatility By Syed Abul, Basher; Alfred A, Haug; Perry, Sadorsky
  5. The unknown notification of XVI century French Diplomat about Ottoman-Persian relations and Georgia By Tea Tsitlanadze; Tea Karchava; Murman Papashvili; Andro Gogoladze
  6. The future of GGC defense with NATO or as Arab NATO? By Vivien Exartier
  7. Transition from Plan to Market, Height and Well-Being By Adsera, Alicia; Dalla Pozza, Francesca; Guriev, Sergei; Kleine-Rueschkamp, Lukas; Nikolova, Elena

  1. By: Shumilov, Andrei
    Abstract: The study compares the explanatory power of two alternative long-term determinants of the real effective exchange rate of the Russian ruble, oil prices and oil export revenues, in three variants of the error correction model. The linear model shows that during the period of managed nominal exchange rate from January 1999 to October 2014 explanatory properties of oil prices and oil export revenues are identical. In the model with structural break-in short-run parameters in November 2014 (when the Central Bank of Russia switched to a floating exchange rate and inflation-targeting policy) and in the Markov regime-switching model with two states, the oil price has higher explanatory power. This result could be explained, first, by the fact that since November 2014 oil revenue changes were mainly due to oil price movements rather than fluctuations in the volume of oil exports. In addition, information channel played an important role in the exchange rate dynamics. In this channel, with the non-instant adjustment of oil export price contracts, increase or decrease in the world price of oil forms expectations about the future rise (drop) of contract prices of exported oil, leading to an instant appreciation (depreciation) of the nominal and real exchange rates.
    Keywords: real effective exchange rate; Russia; oil export revenues; error correction model; Markov regime switching; impulse response functions
    JEL: C22 C51 E58 F31 F41
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Dzintra Atstaja (BA School of Business and Finance)
    Abstract: Research background: The 7th Environment Action Plan promotes a long-term objective of ?Living well, within the limits of our planet? based on a 2050 vision centred on ecological limits, a circular economy, and society?s resilience. It is of a great importance to gather the understanding of global trends and risks as well as future skills that are crucial for a well-developed circular economy. It is important to integrate the life-cycle thinking throughout all the stages of economy and edu-cation plays one of the key roles in ensuring comprehensive transition towards circular economy model.Purpose of the article: The aim of the current paper is to identify what skills, knowledge and competencies students should acquire in the study process and to formulate guidelines for human resource development through higher education according to requirements of a circular economy.Methods: The research is based on theoretical analysis of the scientific literature in circular economy field, analysis of statistical data and questionnaire survey.Findings & Value added: The surveyed business executives (1829 respondents in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia) point out that informational and educational measures are needed on the circular economy. Decision making, system thinking, learning by doing, competences, skills and knowledge, values, awareness raising and problem based learning were identified by respondents as the most important skills that should be acquired during the study process. The findings support the need for developing a study course with integrated the life-cycle thinking which will help to develop professional qualities and competencies of future professionals.
    Keywords: circular economy; education; knowledge; competencies; Baltic countries
    JEL: A20 Q59 I25
    Date: 2019–10
  3. By: Juan Carlos Cuestas (Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Merike Kukk (Department of Economics and Finance, Tallinn University of Technology, Estonia)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the mutual dependence between housing prices and housing credit in Estonia, a country which experienced rapid debt accumulation during the 2000s and big swings in house prices during that period. We use Bayesian econometric methods on data spanning 2000–2015. The estimations show the interdependence between house prices and housing credit. More importantly, negative housing credit innovations had a stronger effect on house prices than positive ones. The asymmetry in the linkage between housing credit and house prices highlights important policy implications, in that if central banks increase capital buffers during good times, they can release credit conditions during hard times to alleviate the negative spillover into house prices and the real economy.
    Keywords: house prices, housing credit, credit cycle, asymmetries, Bayesian
    JEL: E32 E44 E51 G21 R21 R31
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Syed Abul, Basher; Alfred A, Haug; Perry, Sadorsky
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks and shocks to commodity prices on the realized stock market volatility of the CARB (Canada, Australia, Russia, and Brazil) countries. The CARB countries are important countries to study because they are major commodity exporters. The analysis is conducted using sign restricted impulse response functions (IRFs) and structural vector-autoregressive IRFs. There are some common results across the CARB countries. A positive shock to commodity prices lowers realized stock market volatility while a shock to economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on realized stock market volatility. The magnitudes of the initial impact of these two shocks are similar. Shocks to global economic activity and short-term interest rates lower realized stock market volatility. The impacts of these shocks are more pronounced in models that use sign restrictions. These results have implications for investors and policy makers.
    Keywords: Economic policy uncertainty; commodity prices; stock market volatility, sign restricted VAR.
    JEL: E60 G15 G18
    Date: 2019–10
  5. By: Tea Tsitlanadze (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University); Tea Karchava (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University); Murman Papashvili (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University); Andro Gogoladze (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University)
    Abstract: The issue (which is the little part of joint scientific work, regards French communiques unknown so far for Georgian Historiography. They belong to French diplomat Juie who visited Constantinople in XVI century. The letters comprise quite interesting information. Their scientific value is determined by the fact that they belong to the person, who got notifications from a direct informer. The importance of the given documents grows, because there are very scanty contemporaneous sources depicting a domestic as well as a foreign political situation of Georgia of the 16thcentury. It is not doubtful that the author of the letters was well acquainted with the political peripeteias of the Ottoman-Iranian War, which began in 1578. It had a great importance for the history of Georgia, because the Georgians actively participated in the war against Ottomans on the basis of the ?political Iranophilia?. Therefore, a factual material delivered by the diplomat is very interesting for the consideration of a political orientation of the Georgian principalities of the last quarter of the 16th century. It indirectly indicates that political Iranophilia of the Kingdom of Kartli resulted from a real assessment of the international situation created in western Transcaucasia and Near East. Military, political and diplomatic relations with Iran enabled the King of Kartli (Simon I) to base his plans on the usage of Iran and to involve this country as well as the Kingdom of Kartli in anti-Ottoman coalition of the European states. Therefore, Christian Georgia was a connecting bridge for Iran, which looked for an ally in Catholic west (Spain, France, Italy, Germany). This fact enabled Simon I to carry out the policy in relation to the Europeans.Three letters of French diplomat Juie reveal the Ottomans? preparation for a military expedition. These letters vividly depict how the Iranian government prevented the aggravation of the situation in the region. The position of the Georgian kings had a great significance in this respect. Therefore, these letters (together with the analogues Spanish and Italian sources) enable us to present a foreign policy of our country in the context of international relations and particularly, for the determination of the place occupied by Georgia in the Ottoman-Iranian diplomatic rivalry in western Europe.
    Keywords: Ottoman-Persian relations, Georgia, French notifications**The research was carried out with the financial support of Shota Rustaveli National Foundation of Georgia [FR17_86]
    Date: 2019–10
  6. By: Vivien Exartier (Royal University for Women)
    Abstract: The Gulf represents a sub-region of the greater Middle Eastern regional system with its own security and political practices and challenges. Within the Gulf Cooperation Council established in 1981, there exists general agreement on the types of current challenges that need to be confronted but there has never been clear consensus as to the type of strategies and policy tools that could be applied to begin to tackle them. Recent crises on the doorsteps of the Gulf region (Yemen, Syria) however pushed the GCC to be more aggressive in its response by sending financial aid or getting involved militarily. The region does need a security structure but needs to decide which route to follow.The first option is the European Union Security and Defense Policy as a model. The EU advanced its foreign policy agenda using its soft power and thrived at spreading prerogatives and expertise in areas such as conflict management and peace-building while slowly integrating its defence capabilities. The second option is within the framework of NATO since the US has had a military presence in the region and has had close relationships with member states. In terms of US security strategy, the stability of the Gulf is a critical just like Europe. NATO and four of the GCC members (The UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar) already members of the Istanbul Co-operation Initiative, which started in 2004 (Saudi Arabia and Oman have been invited but have not agreed yet.)The framework provides the members advice on defense transformation, defense budgeting, defense planning and civil-military relations, military-to-military cooperation to contribute to interoperability through participation in selected military exercises and related education and training activities that could improve the ability of participating countries' forces to operate with those of the Alliance. The third option would be its own structure including states beyond the GCC such as Egypt and Jordan: that is the idea of an Arab NATO or The Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA) conceived to meet U.S. needs?to target Iran and to reduce U.S. regional presence without allowing China or Russia to gain influence?while disregarding the priorities, and constraints of prospective Arab member states. In reality, GCC buy weapons from Europe, China, Russia. China just established a military base in Djibouti.So the question is what should the GCC security architecture look like? ESDP and NATO had both a common purpose. The purpose of an Arab security structure is not so clear. For example, not all Arab states make Iran as a priority issue. The structure should promote the members interest and not just a major one and external powers. MESA is criticized for serving mainly US and Saudi interests. Another issue is whether to start an alliance or to improve an existing structure: the GCC already has interoperability in place and NATO has created the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative.The paper will look into those three options for the GCC: improving the exiting GCC framework for security, strengthening the relationship with NATO or creating a body including non GCC members.
    Keywords: GCC, NATO, CSDP, defense integration
    Date: 2019–10
  7. By: Adsera, Alicia (Princeton University); Dalla Pozza, Francesca (EBRD, London); Guriev, Sergei (New Economic School, Moscow); Kleine-Rueschkamp, Lukas (University of Oxford); Nikolova, Elena (Central European Labour Studies Institute)
    Abstract: Using newly available data, we re-evaluate the impact of transition from plan to market in former communist countries on objective and subjective well-being. We find clear evidence of the high social cost of early transition reforms: cohorts born around the start of transition are shorter than their older or younger peers. The difference in height suggests that the first years of reform in former communist countries were accompanied by major deprivation. We provide suggestive evidence on the importance of three mechanisms which partially explain these results: the decline of GDP per capita, the deterioration of healthcare systems, and food scarcity. On the bright side, we find that cohorts that experienced transition in their infancy are now better educated and more satisfied with their lives than their counterparts. Taken together, our results imply that the transition process has been a traumatic experience, but that its negative impact has largely been overcome.
    Keywords: transition from plan to market, structural reforms, height, well-being, Russia
    JEL: P36 I14 I31 O12
    Date: 2019–09

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