|
on Confederation of Independent States |
|
Issue of 2019‒10‒14
thirty-two papers chosen by |
| By: | Baeva Marina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Knobel Alexander (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The Russian Federation acceded to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and so became subject to its international trade dispute settlement procedures, on August 22, 2012. The mechanism was adopted by the WTO under the Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (DSU)2. Thus, from August 2012 onwards, Russia has enjoyed the right to defend its trade interests by applying this particular instrument |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, WTO, trade disputes |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-966&r=all |
| By: | Barinova Vera (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Zemtsov Tsepan (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tsareva Yulia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Support of the small and medium sized entrepreneurship (SME) sector is recognized to be one of Russia’s economic policy priorities2,3. It is customary to speak of that sector’s low level of development compared with other countries. However, when comparable estimates are applied, the gap does not appear to be catastrophic. The relative share of SMEs in the value added produced by Russia’s business sector amounts to about 44 percent, in the developed countries – OECD member states it amounts on average to 55 percent, in the USA – to 48 percent, and in Canada – to 30 percent. The problems faced by Russian SMEs, in qualitative terms, are as follows: the percentage of exporters and technological startups is low, and a greater part of that sector is unregulated; in 2018, the relative share of medium sized firms and the number of technological startups shrank even further. The conditions for and specific features of the SME sector’s development vary across Russia’s regions, and this fact is completely overlooked by prevailing legislation. According to our estimations, entrepreneurial activity in the regions does not depend on government support, instead responding to macroeconomic and institutional changes. In 2018, in a majority of Russian regions, the number of SME subjects and their turnover declined in response to shrinking personal income, especially in the regions with a high relative share taken up by the shadow sector, while the same indices increased in those regions that hosted the FIFA World Cup events. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, small businesses, medium-sized enterprises |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-977&r=all |
| By: | Barbashova Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Arlashkin Igor (RANEPA); Belev Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Deryugin Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Leonov Elisei (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sokolov Ilya (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tishchenko Tatiana (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2018, fiscal revenues of the enlarged government (hereinafter BEG) according to the preliminary data released by the Federal Treasury2 exceeded the volumes seen in the previous year by 1.9 percentage points of GDP, or by RUB 5,870 billion in absolute terms (Table 7). At the same time, 75 percent of the income increment of BEG was secured by the federal budget including oil revenues to RUB 3,046 billion, or by 2.2 percentage points of GDP. Non-oil and gas receipts to the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation in 2018 compared to 2017 rose by RUB 2,824 billion in absolute terms but dropped in shares of GDP by 0.3 percentage points. Expenditures of Russia’s budgetary system contracted in 2018 compared to January-December 2017 by 2.6 percentage points of GDP growing in absolute terms by RUB 1,485 billion. In 2018, fiscal revenues of the budgetary system of Russia hit maximum for the five- year period which was mainly due to the favorable price environment on the natural resources. Budget expenditures of the enlarged government in shares of GDP in 2018 on the contrary reached minimum for the five-year period, which was possible due to budgetary rule in force, which significantly limited spending of the federal budget. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, intergovernmental relations, fiscal policy, budgetary system |
| JEL: | H77 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-961&r=all |
| By: | Bobylev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The oil and gas sector is among the basic ones of the Russian economy and is playing an important role in the income generation for the state budget and Russia’s trade balance. Implementation of the OPEC+ agreement regarding the production restriction has resulted in the world crude oil prices growth. In 2018, the volumes of crude oil production peaked for the entire post-Soviet period and the extraction and export of the natural gas hit all-time high. Under the first stage of tax maneuver in force in the oil industry, the refining depth and increased volumes of export of petroleum products observed before its implementation were replaced by contraction of production and export of fuel oil and by the reduction of crude oil refining and export of petroleum products. Oil refining depth moved up markedly. It was decided to gradually complete tax maneuver in the oil sector and introduce the additional profits tax (windfall tax). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, oil and gas sector, oil production, oil prices, oil and gas export |
| JEL: | L71 L72 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-972&r=all |
| By: | Dezhina Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The past year marked the start of drawing up new integrated technological development plans for the Russian science and technology. The plans were originally presented by an Executive Order of the Russian President and then evolved into a nationwide project called “The ‘Science’ National Project” which is in turn linked to the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation adopted in 2016 as well as a national program called “Digital Economy of the Russian Federation.” In addition to the plans, there were some important organizational changes that led to the ultimate separation of former academic research institutes from the Russian Academy of Science (the Academy) and to the establishment of a single Ministry of Science and Higher Education with authority over institutions of higher education and research-performing organizations, while the Academy was granted the legal status of public expert organization. Other important changes include positive moves towards the development of science in institutions of higher education and more active position of regional government authorities with regard to scientific and technological development. Yet, no breakthroughs or visible changes in technological innovations took place. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, R&D, science, technology |
| JEL: | O31 O32 O3 I28 I2 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-973&r=all |
| By: | Khromov Mikhail (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | As of January 1, 2019, the Russian banking system numbered 484 credit organizations. A year earlier then number stood at 542. During the year the number decreased by 58 organizations. Six years ago at the beginning of 2013, the number of credit organizations exceeded one thousand (1094). The Bank of Russia policy aimed at clearing the banking sector has triggered a reduction of the number of banks in operation. Over this period, the Bank of Russia withdrew more than 400 banking licenses. From late 2014 the policy aimed at withdrawing from the market those credit organizations which do not satisfy the requirements of the regulator coincided with the deterioration of the situation in the Russian economy and the imposition of international sanctions on major Russian banks. Correspondingly, already from 2014 the rate of banking license revocation has increased. When in 2013, around 4–5 banks on average per month lost their licenses then in 2014 the rate of banking license revocation increased to 7 lending organizations per month, and during the time of peak manifestations of crisis in the Russian economy and financial system seen in 2015–2016 on average 8 credit organizations per month lost the right to continue their banking activity. The number of revoked banking licenses peaked in 2016: the number of revoked licenses during that year hit 97. Moreover, 2016 saw the peak on the aggregate amount of the bank assets of the banks which lost their banking licenses: RUB 1.7 trillion or 2.0 percent of the overall volume of the banking sector assets. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, banking sector, profit, capital, corporate loans, retail lending |
| JEL: | E41 E51 G28 G21 G24 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-964&r=all |
| By: | Drobyshevsky Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Pavlov Pavel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2018, the growth rate of GDP in Russia (2.3 percent) represents a record high of per annum economic growth rate since 2012. This year-end result is notably above the estimates offered by a majority of international financial organizations (the IMF, World Bank, the OECD), as well as by Russian banking analysts and experts. The volume of GDP in nominal terms surged above RUB 100 trillion, to RUB 103,626.6 billion (or approximately USD 1,657 billion when recalculated at the annual average RUB-to-USD rate). Growth was also displayed by most of the basic indicators: thus, the industrial production index in 2018 gained 2.9 percent, freight turnover – 2.9 percent, retail trade turnover – 2.6 percent. Special note should be made of the movement pattern of fixed investment: according to preliminary estimates released by Rosstat, its annual growth index amounted to 4.3 percent. Considering the fact that, in 2017, the amount of fixed investment in constant prices increased by 4.8 percent, it can be said that over the period 2017–2018, the investment sphere indeed experienced intense growth; however, the main contribution to that growth was made either by budget-funded investments (the completion of building construction projects in preparation for the World Cup; the construction of the bridge to the Crimea; the Sabetta Airport and Seaport; and infrastructure in the city of Moscow), or investments by state-owned companies (Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline; Yamal LNG; etc.). |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, economic growth, economic crisis |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F15 F40 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-976&r=all |
| By: | Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | According to the 2018 year-end data, the regional consolidated budgets and local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 512.9 billion or 0.49 percent of GDP. To compare, the regional consolidated budgets and local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 61.5 billion or 0.07 percent of GDP in 2017. In 2018, the budgets of subjects of the Russian Federation ran a surplus of RUB 491.5 billion, urban districts’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 0.8 billion, federal-status cities’ inner-city municipalities’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 0.4 billion, municipal areas’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 16.0 billion, urban and rural settlements’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 3.5 billion, local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a surplus of RUB 2.7 billion. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, regional and municipal finances, borrowing structure, domestic bonds |
| JEL: | H71 H74 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-963&r=all |
| By: | Abramov Alexander (RANEPA); Chernova Maria (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In 2018, the Russian stock market held up its reputation as one of the most volatile markets in the world. In 2018, Russian companies’ stocks turned out to be instruments with highest returns, outperforming 36 world’s largest stock exchange markets, in contrast to 2017, when Russian stocks were at the bottom of the list of stocks with lowest returns. In 2018, the MOEX Russia Index (formerly the MICEX Index) picked up 12.3 percent, whereas the RTS Index lost 7.4 percent. In 2018, the MOEX Russia Index found itself in a small group of stock indices of Brazil, India and Argentina that managed to stay within a range of positive returns (see Fig. 1). While being composed of the same companies, the two of Russia’s indices differ in that the dollar-denominated RTS Index offers bigger returns than the ruble-denominated MOEX Russia Index. Therefore, when the Russian ruble depreciates the ruble-denominated returns on investment in the stocks composing the MOEX Russia Index are higher than the dollar-denominated returns on the RTS Index portfolio. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, stock market, bond market, bond market, derivatives market, private investors |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G18 G21 G24 G28 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-962&r=all |
| By: | Klyachko Tatiana (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2018, the main developments in the education system can be divided into the two unequal phases: one before the President’s May 2018 Decree and the other after it. Before May 2018, the main attention was focused on teachers’ salaries; the “struggle” to raise them to the average pay in a relevant region was already waged for six years running. Average salaries of higher-education teaching personnel attract less attention though by 2000 their value was to be equal to 200 percent of the average salary in a relevant subject of the Russian Federation where the higher educational institution was situated. From May 2018, the main focus in education was switched over to development of the “Education” national project and the volume of budget funding to be allocated on the specified goals. In addition, in the higher education system serious debates started on the issue of state accreditation of higher educational establishments. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, higher education, vocational education, job skills |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I25 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-983&r=all |
| By: | Zatsepin Vasily (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In 2018, the total strength of the Armed Forces (AF) of the Russian Federation did not change. Early in February 2018, the President of the Russian Federation increased by 200 persons to 10,740 persons the ultimate staff number of the Central Office of the Ministry of Defense (without the guarding and building maintenance personnel taken into account), which is not included in the strength of the Armed Forces. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, military-industrial complex, military reform, defense order, military procurement, defense control |
| JEL: | D74 F52 H56 F51 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-979&r=all |
| By: | Burdyak Alexandra (RANEPA); Grishina Elena (RANEPA); Eliseeva Marina (RANEPA); Lyashok Viktor (RANEPA); Maleva Tatiana (RANEPA); Mkrtchian Nikita (RANEPA); Florinskaya Yulia (RANEPA); Seredkina E. (RANEPA); Khasanova Ramilya (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In 2018 real accrued wages and salaries of corporate employees increased in Q1 by 10.2%, by 7.6% in Q2, by 6.3 in Q3 and by 4.1% in Q4 against the same period of the previous year (Fig. 1). At the same time, real disposable cash incomes of households grew in Q1 and Q2, 2018, by 2.3 è 1.3% respectively against the same period of 2017 while in Q3 and Q4 they decreased by 1.6 and 1.1% against the same period of 20172. Real allotted pensions increased in Q1-2, 2018, by 2.3–0.4% against the same period of 2017 and decreased by 0.5% in Q4. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, households, labor market, social sentiment, internal migration, long-term migration, external labor migration |
| JEL: | D14 J01 J61 J62 F22 J11 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-981&r=all |
| By: | Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | From 2016, statistical data began to be published in the framework of the System of Public Property Management Efficiency Estimates. It was approved by Decree of the RF Government No 72 dated January 29, 2015, and introduced by way of replacing the public sector monitoring data, collected and released by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) since the early 2000s in accordance with the provisions stipulated in RF Government Decree No 1 dated January 4, 1999 (as amended on December 30, 2002). Among other things, the System contains data on the number of federal state unitary enterprises (FSUEs) and joint-stock companies (JSCs) with RF stakes in their capital. Previously, such data were usually published as part of government privatization programs (from 2011 – for three-year period, and prior to 2011 – for one-year period). In the current Forecast Plan (Program) of Federal Property Privatization and the Main Directions of Federal Property Privatization for 2017–2019, relevant data are available only as of early 2016 (Table 1), and so in order to describe the processes taking place over the period 2016–2018, one must rely on data in the System of Public Property Management Efficiency Estimates. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, public sector, privatization |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-974&r=all |
| By: | Olga Guseva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Anastasia Stepanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how ownership characteristics affect the performance of small and medium technology startups in Russia. We focus on how different types of owners (e.g. founders, state, venture capital and corporate firms) contribute to startup performance. Using an unbalanced panel of startups from Skolkovo, the largest Russian innovation cluster, from 2010 to 2016, we found evidence of a negative relationship between a support from government-related organisations and chosen indicators of startup performance. Our findings confirmed the positive impact of venture capital on ROA, especially for the Space cluster startups. While family members as owners were not found to have a significant impact on startups, we identified a positive ontribution from managerial ownership to ROA. The study highlights the importance of other ownership characteristics, which were found to be significant in previous studies of emerged markets. We discuss potential interpretations of the findings and provide strategic management insights for startup owners and investors. |
| Keywords: | Startups; Ownership; Development institutes; Emerging markets |
| JEL: | M13 G32 G34 O38 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:76/fe/2019&r=all |
| By: | Dmitriy, Skrypnik; Alexander, Zaytsev; Kirill, Ryazanov |
| Abstract: | This work explores the effects of countersanctions and import substitution processes on food markets, food imports, and economic growth in Russia. In 2014-2018 in the agro-food markets quite active import substitution processes (in terms of domestic production volumes) is shown. On poultry meat, pork, vegetables and cheese, the growth of domestic production covered the fallen imports by more than 2 times, which led to an increase in the share of domestic production. A lack of substantial production growth is still seen in cattle meat production. On the basis of ex-post analysis, it is determined that the actual contribution of domestic agriculture (excluding cereals) and food industry to GDP dynamics was moderate but positive. In certain sanctions years, it reached 0.24 p.p. or 10.6% of total GDP growth. At the same time, the contribution increased significantly compared to the presanction period. The main effects of countersanctions are found in imports of milk, vegetable and fruit groups, but due to the small share of imports in total consumption, the impact on domestic markets is insignificant. According to calculations, the main factor of growth of domestic agricultural sectors (excluding cereals markets) and food industry in 2014 were countersanction actions of Russia. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: countersanctions, import substitution, economic growth |
| JEL: | F14 F18 F43 L66 Q11 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96188&r=all |
| By: | Mau Vladimir (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | A number of unique anniversaries fell in 2018–2019: 30 years since the collapse of the communist system, 20 years since the start of the Asian economic crisis, 20 years since the introduction of the Euro (the new currency was introduced into noncash circulation on 1 January 1999), and 10 years since the development of the global structural crisis. There is a specific date that is important in the history of the Russian economy and economic policy: in 1999 the ten-year decline changed to economic growth, which led to doubling the GDP and a restoration of the pre-crisis level by 2008. These are not just anniversaries of events that remain in the past but key milestones of socioeconomic development that in many ways formed the priorities and phobias of the political elite of the world’s leading countries, both developed and developing. These events of the past continue to have significant influence of today’s economic policy. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, economic growth, economic crisis |
| JEL: | P16 P26 P48 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-965&r=all |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic situation in 2017–2018 was marked by the outstripping growth rates of fixed investments relative to GDP performance and final consumption of households. In 2018, amid fixed investments increase by 4.3 percent, GDP growth constituted 2.3 percent relative to the corresponding period of the previous year. However, despite the upward trend of fixed investments seen in 2017–2018, the economy has retained the impact from the acute investment crisis of 2014–2016. Vis-a-vis pre-crisis 2012 fixed investments registered in 2018 came to merely 97.3 percent and the construction work volume to 95.7 percent. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, fixed investment |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E60 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-970&r=all |
| By: | Otrachshenko, Vladimir; Popova, Olga; Tavares, José |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between extreme temperatures and violent mortality across Russian regions, with implications for the social costs of climate change. We assess the unequal impact of temperature shocks across gender and age groups by exploring a dataset on temperature and violence in Russia, between the years 1989 and 2015. Hot days lead to an increase in both female and male victims, one hot day resulting in the loss of 1,579 person-years of life for men, and 642 for women. However, the likelihood of victimization during weekends rises noticeably for women, with women between 25 and 59 more victimized on weekends. Our results suggest that female victimization on hot days would be mitigated by increases in regional income and job opportunities, and on cold days, by decreasing the consumption of spirits. |
| Keywords: | Extreme Temperatures; Gender Homicide; Russia; Violence |
| JEL: | I14 K42 P52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13989&r=all |
| By: | Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sternik Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The preliminary results of the Russian economy’s development in 2018 appear to be rather controversial. On the one hand, the growth rate of GDP gained 2.3 percent; on the other, the consumer inflation index increased significantly, to 4.3 percent, from its record low of the entire period since the onset of market reforms (2.5 percent), achieved in 2017. The movement pattern of personal disposable income, which is a much more significant factor determining the situation in the real estate market, was quite volatile throughout the course of last year, with multiple trend reversals. In spite of the positive results of the first two quarters, probably achieved thanks to the current electoral cycle, in the end the personal disposable income index stayed roughly at the same level as in 2017. The RF Central Bank twice reduced its key rate over the course of H1 2018, to 7.25 percent per annum in early autumn. However, over the next few months it was once again hiked twice, and so returned to its level of late 2017 (7.75 percent). The tricky movement pattern of the key rate pushed down the interest rates on bank loans and notably improved the position of borrowers. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, residential property prices, housing market, housing construction |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-982&r=all |
| By: | Kazenin Konstantin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Starodubrovskaya Irina (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | This article deals with a brief evaluation of developments in the regions of North Caucasus in 2018 as they can be regarded as indicators of significant changes in that part of the country. Such developments include personnel changes in the government of Dagestan where for the first time in the post-Soviet period key positions in the region were taken by officials who never worked in that republic, as well as large-scale public activities in Ingushetia over the issue of the region’s borders. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, North Caucasus |
| JEL: | H11 H70 H77 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-980&r=all |
| By: | Volovik Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In November 2018, the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) presented its updated forecasts2, according to which global economic growth would slow down from the current 3.7 percent (the OECD’s estimate as of 2018) to 3.5 percent in 2019–2020. Earlier, the OECD’s experts expected a 3.7 percent growth in global GDP in 2019. But growth in trade and investments slowed down on the back of the US protectionist policy. Growth in interest rates and appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate resulted in the capital outflow from developing countries and depreciation of their currencies. In the OECD zone, monetary stimulation measures are gradually scaled down. Trade conflicts between the US and China constitute a separate negative factor. According to the OECD’s estimate, imposition by the US of a 25 percent duty on Chinese imports and adoption by China of similar measures may cost the global economy, US economy and Chinese economy 0.5 percent of GDP, 0.8 percent of GDP and 1 percent of GDP, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-967&r=all |
| By: | Shagaida Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Shishkina Ekaterina (RANEPA); Gataulina Ekaterina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Over recent years, agriculture – if we choose to look at available data prior to their adjustment based on the results of the All-Russia Agricultural Census – has been growing at a sufficiently high rate: in 2013 – by 5.8 percent, in 2014 – by 3.5, in 2015 – by 2.6, in 2016 – by 4.8, and in 2017 – by 2.5 percent3. Overall, growth over the course of 5 years amounted to 20.7 percent. Based on Rosstat’s current statistics, managers on both the federal and regional levels describe the development pattern of the agroindustrial complex (AIC) as a breakthrough and a leap forward. We likewise mentioned this fact in our overviews released over several previous years2. However, in 2018, there were some problems involved in the estimation of the growth rate both for 2018 and for the previous years. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, agricultural production |
| JEL: | Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-968&r=all |
| By: | Sokolova, Tetiana; Sushchenko, Oleksandr; Schwarze, Reimund |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the prospects and feasibility of using the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU as a roadmap for reorienting the Ukrainian brown economy toward a green economy, making use of green financial instruments in the process. The first chapter is dedicated to the concept of green financial policy as well as its main fiscal and market instruments. The second chapter explores in detail the state of climate-related affairs in Ukraine, the country's commitments to numerous international environmental agreements as well as the role of the EU Association Agreement and its place in the Ukrainian economic context. The third chapter considers the political, economic and social measures required to establish a green financial policy. Our central findings are as follows: (1) Although Ukraine has been making progress towards a green financial policy in recent years, there is no doubt that the country needs technical and financial assistance from its European partners. The Association Agreement between Ukraine and the countries of the European Union provides an essential basis for building a green economy in Ukraine. (2) Despite efforts to mobilise internal green financial resources, the Ukrainian Government is struggling with what has already been achieved and is at a crossroads in moving in a different direction. For this reason, local and even non-governmental organisations in Ukraine today have often a greater direct influence on the process of building a green economy than the government itself. Two promising examples of Ukrainian companies seeking a green reputation are the Ukrainian Green Bank (Ukrgasbank) and the large energy company DTEK. |
| Keywords: | green economy,sustainable development,low-carbon technology,green finance,environmental taxation,green investment,Ukraine,European Union,Association Agreement,National Action Plan |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ufzdps:62019&r=all |
| By: | Ekaterina Semerikova (Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO); Egor Krivosheya (Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO); Alexander Dobrynin (National Research University - Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study is aimed to examine the effect caused by perception of higher card acceptance barriers on cashless revenue share of Russian merchants. The empirical testing is conducted based on two representative samples of Russian nation-wide merchants survey data collected in 2014 and 2017. The analysis considers a set of regional controls, as well as merchant-specific characteristics. The statistically significant evidence in favor of negative impact caused by perception of higher infrastructural barriers on cashless revenue share is found in both samples, while only a partial significance of higher perceived institutional and human capital barriers may be observed. No significant evidence for merchants? rationality with respect to acceptance barrier has been found based on the comparison of perceived and actual barriers effects. |
| Keywords: | retail payments; financial services; merchants; barriers; card acceptance |
| JEL: | G21 D53 E42 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:9511956&r=all |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2016–2018, the economic situation was characterized by the gradual recovery of GDP positive dynamics with GDP growth rates increasing from 100.3 percent in 2016 to 101.6 percent and 102.3 percent in 2017 and 2018, respectively. The GDP real volume surpassed by 1.6 percentage point the indicator of 2014, having compensated the crisis decrease seen in 2015. Unlike the conditions of the previous two years, the nature of development of the economy in 2017-2018 was determined by simultaneous growth in demand on the international and domestic markets. With a relatively favorable foreign economic situation and sustainable positive dynamics, in 2018 exports amounted to 119.4 percent (as per the methods of the system of national accounts (SNA)) as compared to 2014. With the speed-up of the growth rates of the volume of exports to 6.3 percent, in 2018 the contribution of net exports to GDP increased to 3.5 percent against the indicator of 2.8 percent a year before in comparable prices (10.0 percent against 5.3 percent in current prices). Growth in net exports had a considerable effect on the dynamics and pattern of formation of GDP and compensated the weakening of domestic market dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, production, external and internal demand, GDP structure |
| JEL: | G28 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-971&r=all |
| By: | Mehmet Balcilar (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, North Cyprus, via Mersin 10, Turkey and University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); George Ike (Eastern Mediterranean University, Famagusta, North Cyprus, via Mersin 10, Turkey); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | We employ time series data to empirically determine the causal relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the GDP growth rates of seven emerging market economies while controlling for the effect of oil price, interest rates and the CPI. Due to differences in sampling frequencies between the GDP series and other variables, a multi-horizon mixed frequency VAR model is employed. This model fully exploits the mixed frequency Granger causality test in order to circumvent the distorting effects of temporal aggregation. The empirical results show a strong statistical evidence for direct causality flowing from economic policy uncertainty (EPU) to GDP in Chile, India and Mexico while a weaker statistical evidence is found for Brazil, Colombia and Russia. For comparative analysis, the low frequency Granger causality test is also employed and strong statistical evidence of direct causality flowing from EPU to GDP in Brazil, Chile, India, Mexico and Russia is uncovered. Analyzing the causal patterns uncovered in both specifications show that the low frequency Granger causality results are less intuitively appealing than those that are obtained from the mixed frequency Granger causality test. The results have empirical as well as policy implications which are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Economic policy uncertainty, mixed frequency, Granger causality, temporal aggregation, emerging market economies. |
| JEL: | E32 E37 C32 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201975&r=all |
| By: | Tsukhlo Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Prolonged period of industrial business surveys conducted by the Gaidar Institute and representative range of indicators permit to resolve the first task – analyze the situation in the sector in 2018 – determine the place for the year 2018 in all the 27 years since the IET launched and carried out business surveys between 1992–2018. For this purpose, we will use aggregate indicators. The latter are usually calculated on a monthly basis on the findings obtained from monthly surveys. They became widely popular owing to promptness of the findings and shortage of data released on the Russian industrial sector. However, this approach to present surveys’ findings complicates assessment of each year as a whole. That is why we analyze all consolidated indicators in a year-on-year basis |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, industrial sector, industrial output |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-969&r=all |
| By: | Egor Krivosheya (Moscow School of Management SKOLKOVO; National Research University - Higher School of Economics); Polina Belyakova (National Research University - Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the effect of contactless payment and various financial innovations on the frequency of payments in terms of number of transactions for different individuals at the Russian retail payments market. Using the representative nation-wide survey of 1500 individuals, it was found that various types of financial innovations promote activity of consumers at the retail payments market. This paper contributes to the existing literature in payment economics by empirically analyzing the effects of emerging and existing retail financial innovations on the consumers? behavior at Russian retail payments market. The results of the paper provide important implications for both consumers and merchants, as well as help to overcome barriers that prevent spread and use various financial innovations in the future. |
| Keywords: | Retail payments; payment cards; customers? behavior; financial services; benefits; financial innovation |
| JEL: | G21 D53 E42 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:9511955&r=all |
| By: | Naumov, Jurij; Pugač, Igor' |
| Keywords: | animal husbandry,dairy farming,agriculture,agri sector,Uzbekistan |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:188&r=all |
| By: | Andrey Tkachenko (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russian Federation and Bocconi University); Paola Valbonesi (Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova and National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russian Federation); Elena Shadrina (National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russian Federation); Gegam Shagbazian (Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | Government support to small business enterprises (SBEs) through set-aside (SA) public procurement auctions is a common practice. The effect of the SA mechanism is, however, ambiguous. On the one hand, SA auctions can attract more SBEs to compete; on the other hand, SA auctions restrict the entry of—possibly—more cost-efficient large firms. We investigate SA auctions’ effect by exploiting an original Russian database on public procurement e-auctions for granulated sugar (a largely homogeneous good) in the period 2011-2013. To identify the causal effect of SA auctions, we overcome two endogeneity issues: procurers’ choice of SA format and firms’ decision to bid. In an empirical setting where confounding elements are minimized, we found that SA auctions’ effect largely depends on both the reserve price value and the level of competition. We found that there exists an optimal interval for the reserve price where SA auctions record lower procurement prices, as compared to non-SA auctions. |
| Keywords: | affirmative action, preferential treatment, public procurement, set-aside auctions, e-auctions, small businesses enterprises (SBEs), small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) |
| JEL: | D44 H11 H57 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pad:wpaper:0240&r=all |
| By: | Naomitsu Yashiro; Caroline Klein; Olga Rastrigina; Ania Thiemann |
| Abstract: | Latvia’s productivity growth is held back by weak innovation and inefficient resource allocation. The shortage of skilled workers which constrains innovation and the adoption of digital technologies must be addressed through further alignment of vocational and tertiary education with labour market demand. Strengthening the innovation ecosystem by improving the quality of research and collaboration between firms and research institutions would help to diffuse digital technologies more widely across the economy. Fighting widespread informality, improving the low debt recovery through a more efficient insolvency regime, and reducing substantial state ownership would improve the allocation of resources. Latvia also relies heavily on EU funds to finance its important structural policies. The continuity of the most effective EU funded policy instruments needs to be ensured in the medium term, by integrating them into the national budget.This Working Paper relates to the 2019 OECD Economic Survey of Latvia(http://www.oecd.org/economy/surve ys/latvia-economic-snapshot/) |
| Keywords: | Access to credit, Competition, EU Structural funds, Informality, Innovation, Latvia, Productivity, Skills shortage |
| JEL: | G28 I28 J08 L30 O17 O20 O38 O43 O52 |
| Date: | 2019–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1571-en&r=all |
| By: | Apevalova Elena (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | Legal framework of a limited liability company emerged in 1892 in Germany (Gesellschaft mit beschrankter Haftung,GmbH). It did not have any prototypes or models and was artificially created by German Ministry of Justice and approved as a law. Introduction of this legal framework owed largely to strengthening of shareholding legislation, which took place in 1884 as a follow up of a period when shareholding companies popped up using money collected from households in exchange of promise of high interest and accompanied by numerous fraud and abusive practices, taking advantage of liberalism of German shareholding legislation of that time. Small and medium size entrepreneurs needed the opportunity to set up corporations with a low number of participants, relatively small assets and way of secession more complicated than in a shareholding company. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, llc |
| JEL: | L22 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-978&r=all |