nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒10‒07
six papers chosen by

  1. The impact of institutional quality on manufacturing sectors in Russia: panel data analysis By Michael Alexeev; Andrey Chernyavskiy
  2. Republic of Moldova; Fourth and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements, Completion of the Inflation Consultation, and Request for Extension of the Arrangements and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova By International Monetary Fund
  3. Patronage and Election Fraud: Insights from Russia’s Governors 2000–2012 By Koenig, Christoph
  4. Инфраструктура сельского хозяйства Казахстана: динамика аграрного производства, взаимодействие производственной и социальной сферы By Stukach, Victor; Saparova, Gulnar; Sultanova, GuZel; Saginova, Sania
  5. Is export diversification or export specialization responsible for economic growth in BRICS countries? By Sinesipho Siswana; Andrew Phiri
  6. Effects of tax-benefit policies on the income distribution and work incentives in Estonia By Alari Paulus; Caroline Klein

  1. By: Michael Alexeev (Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana and the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Moscow, Russia); Andrey Chernyavskiy (National Research University Higher School of Economics, (HSE) University of Moscow, Russia)
    Abstract: We use the 2005-2012 data for Russian regions to show that higher regional institutional quality strongly benefits institutionally-dependent manufacturing sectors in terms of both gross output levels and growth rates. Unlike the existing literature on this topic, which uses cross-sectional or pooled specifications, we focus on panel data analysis. This approach mitigates endogeneity concerns and allows for calculating full marginal effects of institutions on manufacturing sectors with different degrees of institutional dependence. Our results imply that significant institutional improvements are needed in order for the Russian economy to diversify away from heavy reliance on oil and natural gas.
    Keywords: relationship specificity, institutional quality, allocation of industry, Russian economy
    JEL: D02 O14 P27
    Date: 2019–04
  2. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The economy continued to strengthen. Robust growth in 2018 was propelled by infrastructure and private investments, while private consumption continued to expand into 2019, supported by growing real incomes and bank lending recovery. Inflation slowed in 2018, but pressures are building up. The labor market improved significantly, with strengthening labor force participation, employment growth, and falling unemployment.
    Date: 2019–09–25
  3. By: Koenig, Christoph (University of Bristol)
    Abstract: Theory and empirics suggest that patronage fosters election fraud. But why does fraud vary within autocracies where patronage’s incentives to manipulate should be uniformly high? In this paper, I explore whether information asymmetries can explain this phenomenon. I study the introduction of a patronage system which allowed Russia’s president to discretionarily appoint all 89 regional governors. After December 2004, all national elections were organized by governors facing removal but, crucially, only some were actually patronage-appointed with lower need to signal their qualities. I estimate the effect of the reform’s introduction and its staggered implementation on a new and verified regional fraud indicator for 7 national elections.
    Keywords: JEL Classification:
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Stukach, Victor; Saparova, Gulnar; Sultanova, GuZel; Saginova, Sania
    Abstract: The article deals with the problem of infrastructure development of agriculture as a condition for the interaction of industrial and social spheres, sustainable positive dynamics of agricultural production, development of rural areas of Kazakhstan. The main tendencies of development of agro-industrial complex in the Republic of Kazakhstan on the temporary stages based on statistical data are presented. The study showed that the level of endowments as an important parameter of social capital formation in the social and industrial infrastructure of agriculture in Kazakhstan remains extremely unstable. This circumstance can form a tendency to decline and degradation of Kazakh villages. This, in turn, will have a negative impact on production volumes. The endowment, in this case, will form an unstable dynamics in the production of agricultural raw materials. Thus, the formation and development of agro-industrial infrastructure is considered as a necessary condition for effective interaction of subjects of primary and secondary production, contributing to the development of common prerequisites for the growth and development of agricultural products. The results of the study can be used by the state to invest in social, transport and industrial development of the village to ensure food security. Agricultural development of rural areas of Kazakhstan on the basis of infrastructure improvement will increase the welfare of rural workers, solve the problem of quality food for the population of the country, as well as take an active part in solving the global problem of eradicating hunger on the planet.
    Keywords: agricultural products, food security, agriculture, production infrastructure, agricultural production, social infrastructure, rural population, investments, endowments
    JEL: M1 Q1 Q13 Q2
    Date: 2018–02
  5. By: Sinesipho Siswana (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University); Andrew Phiri (Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University)
    Abstract: Is it export diversification or export specialization that is more useful towards promoting economic growth in the BRICS economies? To answer this query, we estimate a growth model augmented with trade activity to capture the diversification-concentration trade-off with economic growth over the period of 1995 to 2017. Our baseline Fully-Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) regressions confirm a negative effect of diversification on growth whereas concentration has a positive effect on growth. We further estimate panel quantile regressions for the growth specifications and find that i) moderate levels of concentration are best for economic growth ii) diversification adversely affects growth across all quantiles though the effect diminishes as one approaches higher levels of diversification. This points to a semi inverted U-shaped diversification schedule, of which the BRICS countries have crossed their ‘inflexion point’ of development and need to re-specialize their export baskets.
    Keywords: Export specialization; Export diversification; Economic growth; BRICS countries; asymmetries; Quantile regressions.
    JEL: C23 C33 F10 F13 F14 O40
    Date: 2019–09
  6. By: Alari Paulus; Caroline Klein
    Abstract: The paper studies the impact of tax-benefit policies on the distribution of household incomes and work incentives in Estonia. It makes use of microsimulation modelling approach and applies the EU tax-benefit model EUROMOD to quantify the first-order effects of policy changes in 2016-2018 and of a range of alternative policy scenarios aimed at increasing the adequacy of social benefits. According to the simulations, 2016-2017 policies increased household incomes relative to inflation and were both poverty and inequality reducing. Alternative policy scenarios indicate that, among the considered options, increasing the generosity of the subsistence benefit and relaxing its means test by halving the withdrawal rate (currently at 100%), would have the highest first-order impact for a given fiscal cost. However, these measures would also weaken work incentives, which points to a conventional equity-efficiency trade-off. Other simulations demonstrate some scope for improving work incentives at low and middle-income levels together with modest reductions in poverty and inequality.This Working Paper relates to the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Estonia( nia-economic-snapshot/)
    Keywords: Estonia, income distribution, tax-benefit policies, work incentives
    JEL: D31 H23 I38
    Date: 2019–10–04

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.