nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒09‒30
ten papers chosen by

  1. Russia’s Monetary Policy in 2018 By Bozhechkova Alexandra; Kiyutsevskaya Anna; Trunin Pavel; Knobel Alexander
  2. Продовольственное обеспечение столичного мегаполиса Республики Казахстан: институты инфраструктуры, потенциал местного производства, обеспечение питанием социально незащищенных слоев населения By Stukach, Victor; Zadvorneva, Evgeniyf
  3. Review of Key International Demand Elasticities for Major Industrializing Economies By Huntington, Hillard; Barrios, James; Arora, Vipin
  4. The importance of being informed: forecasting market risk measures for the Russian RTS index future using online data and implied volatility over two decades By Fantazzini, Dean; Shangina, Tamara
  5. Gorbachev versus Deng: A Review of Chris Miller's 'The Struggle to Save the Soviet Economy' By Sergei Guriev
  6. Реструктуризация сектора животноводства в Туркменистане By Aganov, Stanislav; Kepbanov, Yolbars; Ovezmuradov, Gurbanmyrat
  7. The Georgian Tax Lottery of 2012. A Multi-Methodological Assessment By Lotta Björklund Larsen; Rubina Arakelyan; Teimuraz Gogsadze; Mariam Katsadze; Sophiko Skhirtladze; Nino Muench
  8. Republic of Azerbaijan; 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Azerbaijan By International Monetary Fund
  9. Сектор животноводства в Таджикистане: Проблемы устойчивого и сбалансированного развития By Umarov, Khojamahmad
  10. Mongolia; Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: Bozhechkova Alexandra (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kiyutsevskaya Anna (RANEPA); Trunin Pavel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Russia’s central bank adopted a new monetary policy regime in 2018 by raising the key interest rate for the first time since December 2014. After slashing the key interest rate on February 9th and on March 23rd by 0.25 percentage points to 7.5 and 7.25 percent per annum, respectively, the central bank lifted the rate on September 14th by 0.25 percentage points to 7.5 percent per annum, with another hike on December 14th of 0.25 percentage points to 7.75 percent per annum. The transition to a neutral monetary policy regime2 slowed as far back as in 2017. There were more constraints to interest rate cuts in 2018 that came from new April and August anti-Russia sanctions that spurred capital outflows from the country and depreciation of the Russian ruble, a VAT hike decision scheduled for 2019, a late-year fall in energy prices, and concerns about possible heightening of inflation expectations. The key interest rate hike suggested that the Bank of Russia is committed to bring inflation back down to target in the medium term. For instance, according to a forecast of the central bank, end-of-year inflation for 2019 may reach 5–5.5 percent, and it is not until 2020 that inflation is back to its target.
    Keywords: Russian economy, monetary policy, money market, exchange rate, inflation, balance of payments
    JEL: E31 E43 E44 E51 E52 E58
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Stukach, Victor; Zadvorneva, Evgeniyf
    Abstract: При формировании инфраструктуры обеспечения продовольствием населения столичного мегаполиса Казахстана г. Нур-Султан (Астана) и его пригородной зоны важная роль отводится оптимальному пространственному распределению запасов пищевых продуктов. В соответствии с нормами ВТО возможности государства по стимулированию развития сельского хозяйства ограничены. Приоритетными становятся задачи, которые возможно решить в рамках «зеленой корзины» ВТО, – формирование институтов инфраструктуры внутренней продовольственной помощи нуждающимся слоям населения региона, финансирование научно-исследовательских работ, субсидирование консультационных услуг, затрат по охране окружающей среды. В регионе создается системы технологически синхронизированных производственных процессов, операторов питания, складской и транспортной логистики, сервиса, оптовой и розничной торговли, способной качественно удовлетворить запросы населения. Новые институты инфраструктуры агропродовольственного рынка учитывают различные формы внутренней продовольственной помощи для поддержки отечественных производителей и переработчиков сельскохозяйственной продукции; механизмов развития производственной и товаропроводящей инфраструктуры, использования современных электронных платежных систем
    Keywords: Столичный мегаполис Республики Казахстан, институты инфраструктуры, потенциал местного производства, обеспечение питанием социально незащищенных слоев населения
    JEL: O32 R2 R5
    Date: 2018–06
  3. By: Huntington, Hillard; Barrios, James; Arora, Vipin
    Abstract: This study conducts a selective review of various estimates for energy demand responses. It emphasizes recent empirical studies that include trends from studies published after 2000. Emphasis is placed on the five major emerging or transitional economies in Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Russia, although other important nations like Chile and South Korea are also discussed when studies are available. The review focuses attention on the long-run responses to changes in prices and income after capital stock turnover has been completed. The terminology often refers to elasticities, or the percentage change in energy use divided by the percentage change in price (or income), holding constant all other factors that could influence energy-use decisions. Most studies have focused upon household and transportation use of liquid fuels; many fewer studies have investigated fuels used by industry or commerce or for electric generation. Based upon the available estimates, price and income elasticities for liquid fuels are generally less than one (unity) for many countries and sectors, except for the long-run income effect for transportation purposes, which can range widely by country between 0.24 and 1.75 while averaging 0.94 for all countries.
    Keywords: energy demand; industrializing countries; price elasticity; income elasticity
    JEL: O13 Q41
    Date: 2017–12
  4. By: Fantazzini, Dean; Shangina, Tamara
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the forecasting of market risk measures for the Russian RTS index future, and examines whether augmenting a large class of volatility models with implied volatility and Google Trends data improves the quality of the estimated risk measures. We considered a time sample of daily data from 2006 till 2019, which includes several episodes of large-scale turbulence in the Russian future market. We found that the predictive power of several models did not increase if these two variables were added, but actually decreased. The worst results were obtained when these two variables were added jointly and during periods of high volatility, when parameters estimates became very unstable. Moreover, several models augmented with these variables did not reach numerical convergence. Our empirical evidence shows that, in the case of Russian future markets, T-GARCH models with implied volatility and student’s t errors are better choices if robust market risk measures are of concern.
    Keywords: Forecasting; Value-at-Risk; Realized Volatility; Google Trends; Implied Volatility; GARCH; ARFIMA; HAR; Realized-GARCH
    JEL: C22 C51 C53 G17 G32
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Sergei Guriev (Département d'économie)
    Abstract: Chris Miller’s book is a historian’s account of Mikhail Gorbachev’s efforts to save the Soviet economy. Miller focuses on the question of why Gorbachev did not follow Deng Xiaoping and did not manage to reform the economy. Miller argues that it was not for the lack of understanding (Gorbachev did invest in learning China’s approach to reform and did understand it well), nor for the lack of trying. In fact, Gorbachev did try to implement Deng’s agricultural and industrial enterprise reforms. However, Gorbachev’s reforms were blocked by powerful vested interests. An inability to tackle the agricultural and industrial lobbies eventually resulted in the bankruptcy and collapse of the Soviet Union. While I generally agree with the political economy argument, I discuss a number of alternative explanations. I also discuss sources of Gorbachev’s weak state capacity and offer an evaluation of Gorbachev’s and post-Gorbachev reform efforts and mistakes based on the political economy research carried out in the last twenty-five years.
    JEL: D72 O57 P21 P23 P24 P26
    Date: 2019–03
  6. By: Aganov, Stanislav; Kepbanov, Yolbars; Ovezmuradov, Gurbanmyrat
    Keywords: livestock sector,agricultural reforms,Turkmenistan
    Date: 2019
  7. By: Lotta Björklund Larsen (TARC (Tax Administration Research Centre) at University of Exeter Business School); Rubina Arakelyan (ISET - International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University); Teimuraz Gogsadze (ISET - International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University); Mariam Katsadze (ISET - International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University); Sophiko Skhirtladze (ISET - International School of Economics at Tbilisi State University); Nino Muench
    Abstract: Tax lotteries are seen as ways to relatively easily augment public revenue while also increasing compliance. Tax lotteries are constructed so that consumers are nudged to ask for a receipt when making a purchase. This receipt contains information so that it can also be used as a lottery ticket with the possibility of winning prizes. Such tickets also leave traces of transaction records so that revenue authorities can audit vendors. Given this background, the aim of this paper is to provide a broad, multi-methodological and socio-economic assessment of Georgia’s tax lottery experience in 2012. Our assessment aims to describe the design of the lottery and its functioning in practice, to evaluate how the introduction of the tax lottery influenced the effectiveness of tax administration in Georgia at the country, regional, and firm level and to investigate Georgian citizens’ views of the Georgian Revenue Service (GRS) and if tax compliance was improved by the tax lottery. Economic assessment, based on data from 2012 and 2013 on weekly transactions per cash register, using three econometric specifications show that during the lottery weeks, there is a significant increase in the aggregate weekly sales compared to the non-lottery weeks. The number of cash registers reporting their income and the average weekly sales are also higher in lottery weeks. Thus, there are proper foundations to argue that the lottery propelled the increase in reported income. But this tax lottery also aimed to popularize the cash registers as well as to improve citizens’ attitude towards the GRS. Following our qualitative investigation and assessment into the Georgian Tax Lottery we would like to add the following points. GRS achieved its purpose, at least in the short term. More revenue was collected and vendors became very conscious and aware of printing and giving receipts to customers. However, what the impact became in the long run, is harder to say. Strategies of “love and fear” are difficult to make work in combination, and we find it hard to say that citizens’ views of the GRS improved. Perhaps even the contrary could be proposed.
    Keywords: Tax Lottery, Tax Evasion, Interdisciplinary Tax Study
    Date: 2019
  8. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Azerbaijan is recovering from a banking crisis and recession caused by a prolonged decline in oil prices since mid-2014. Monetary conditions remain tight under a de facto peg. Despite rising government spending, the fiscal position is projected to strengthen in 2019 mainly due to firmer oil prices and improvements in revenue administration. Weaknesses in bank balance sheets, structural and policy rigidities, and institutional and governance deficiencies hinder medium-term growth prospects and weaken resilience to shocks.
    Date: 2019–09–18
  9. By: Umarov, Khojamahmad
    Keywords: livestock sector,pastures,Tajikistan
    Date: 2019
  10. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Selected Issues
    Date: 2019–09–17

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