nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒09‒09
eight papers chosen by

  1. National institutional systems’ hybridisation through interdependence. The case of EU-Russia gas relations By Mehdi Abbas; Catherine Locatelli
  3. War and economy. Putin and Sun Tzu By Jacques Fontanel
  4. Factors determining enterprise location choice in Russia By Natalia Davidson; Oleg Mariev
  5. Trade relations and Export Orientation Prospects of Georgian Economy on EU market By Lela Bakhtadze; Teimuraz Sartania
  6. Problems of State Debt Management in Georgia By Lela Bakhtadze; Keti Tskhadadze
  7. Interdépendance complexe et Économie politique internationale de l’énergie : le cas de la relation UE-Russie. By Catherine Locatelli; Mehdi Abbas
  8. The finer points of model comparison in machine learning: forecasting based on russian banks’ data By Denis Shibitov; Mariam Mamedli

  1. By: Mehdi Abbas (Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Catherine Locatelli (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: The interdependencies between the EU and its external natural gas suppliers and Russia question the transformative impact of interdependence linked to hybridization processes. Our approach combines theories of institutional change, and French Regulation Theory. These approaches lead to a new look to characterize the way in which the confrontation of two regulatory systems (EU and Russia) is resolved today. The importance of the European market leads however to an adaptation of the Russian governance model for gas exchanges. But it also implies a transformation of the European model. The competitive norm acts as a lever to bring about hybridization of regulations in the Russian gas sector and EU energy policy.
    Keywords: Institutional hybridization,natural gas exchanges,relationship between EU and Russia,institutional change
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Rogneda Groznykh (Ural Federal University); Igor Drapkin (Ural Federal University); Oleg Mariev (Ural Federal University)
    Abstract: The research is devoted to analysis of various regional factors that attract foreign direct investment. Taking into account that foreign direct investment can give a possibility to solve different social and economic problems, the main objective of the study is to reveal factors that promote foreign direct investment to regions of Russia. In the research two types of regions are considered: mining and non-mining. It is proposed that mining regions in Russia attract more foreign direct investment compared to non-mining ones. Therefore we provide econometric estimation on the database for 83 Russian regions for period from 2001 to 2017 using fixed-effects regression estimation. According to the results of the research a range of recommendations can be developed in order to enlarge foreign direct investment inflows.
    Keywords: foreign direct investment inflows, Russian regions, mining region, education, roads density, railway density
    JEL: F21
    Date: 2019–07
  3. By: Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: The annexation of Crimea to Russia has been the subject of economic retaliation measures mainly by NATO members. Putin has used the lessons of Sun Tzu to achieve a result that, on the side of Russia, is globally positive; since the question of the return of Crimea to Ukraine is hardly mentioned anymore. In this context, we realize that Russia has suffered some negative effects on its growth, but it has considerably improved the conditions of its national security and its patrimony and heritage.
    Keywords: economic war,war,economic weapons,strategy
    Date: 2019–09–13
  4. By: Natalia Davidson (Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University); Oleg Mariev (Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University)
    Abstract: This paper studies determinants of enterprise location decisions in Russia, such as agglomeration levels, home market potential, transport infrastructure and institutional environment. Results confirm that agglomeration levels and home market potential affect foreign firms? location choice and probability that national firms will work in a city. Urbanization economies and home market potential positively affect location choice; localization economies have an inverted U shape. Estimation shows that foreign enterprises are interested in large demand. Under assumption that there are more innovations in diversified cities and cities with favourable business climate, strategic asset seeking might be present. The study confirms negative impact of regional business environment risks on foreign firms? location choice. Results will be useful for regional policy aimed at business development and attracting foreign direct investment.
    Keywords: enterprise location choice, cities, agglomeration economies, home market potential, business environment, foreign direct investment, Russia
    JEL: O12 R12 F21
    Date: 2019–07
  5. By: Lela Bakhtadze (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University; Department of International Economics and Economic Teaching History); Teimuraz Sartania (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University / PhD Student)
    Abstract: On the basis of country`s economic increase, analysis of employment and export potential, in the article, there are revealed the challenges of global economy and evaluated the competitiveness of economy of Georgia. There are studied the reasons causing negative balance of foreign trade. On the basis of generalization of increase theories oriented on the export, there are assessed the significance of offer the manufacture of new export products and service relating the export products and the intensity of their sell, extension of export geography and increase of export potential of the country. Besides, there is confirmed the state`s role in increase of production`s efficiency by rational distribution of resources. There are worked out the references regarding the acceleration and improvement of trade and economic relations between the Georgia and EU during the process of integration in EU.
    Keywords: trade relations, economic growth, export potential, competitiveness, export-oriented growth.
    JEL: F00
    Date: 2019–07
  6. By: Lela Bakhtadze (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University); Keti Tskhadadze (Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University)
    Abstract: One of the topical problems of modernity is the investigation of the reasons, which had caused origin of the state debt, its assessment criteria and indicators. The article has investigated reasons causing both the permanent growth of domestic and external debts of developing and post socialist countries and their debt crisis. The article analyzes economic, social and political developments resulting the permanent growth of domestic and external debt in developing and post socialist countries.There are set out conclusions for regulation of financial, foreign exchange, foreign and trade relations. The article suggests concrete efforts aimed to overcome debt crisis. For this reason we suggest to use universal recognized methods and mechanisms, which will support to overcome the debt crisis.
    Keywords: State Domestic Debt, State External Debt, State Debt Management, Debt Crisis, Debt Burden.
    JEL: F34 H63 H79
    Date: 2019–07
  7. By: Catherine Locatelli (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Mehdi Abbas (Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: Ce cahier de recherche vise à appliquer les problématisations des nouvelles approches de l'interdépendance (New Interdependence Approches – NIA selon l'acronyme anglais) aux enjeux relatifs à la régulation internationale de l'énergie et ce à partir d'un cas d'étude : la relation gazière entre l'UE et la Russie. Les interdépendances entre l'UE et ses fournisseurs extérieurs en matière de gaz naturel, au premier rang desquels figure la Russie, posent la question de la confrontation de préférences contradictoires des acteurs impliqués dans l'échange. L'interdépendance conflictuelle recèle un « effet transformatif » sur les régulations, les systèmes institutionnels et les politiques énergétiques de la Russie et de l'UE. Les deux modèles institutionnels font l'objet de changements incrémentaux porteurs de conséquences importantes. Dans l'interdépendance, la politique énergétique russe et les stratégies des acteurs russes se transforment pour faire place à un certain degré de concurrence. A l'inverse, il semble que de manière croissante celle de l'UE intègre des préoccupations d'ordre stratégique et d'économie politique qui ne se justifient pas par les seules considérations de création d'un marché unique et concurrentiel.
    Date: 2019–03
  8. By: Denis Shibitov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Mariam Mamedli (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: We evaluate the forecasting ability of machine learning models to predict bank license withdrawal and the violation of statutory capital and liquidity requirements (capital adequacy ratio N1.0, common equity Tier 1 adequacy ratio N1.1, Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio N1.2, N2 instant and N3 current liquidity). On the basis of 35 series from the accounting reports of Russian banks, we form two data sets of 69 and 721 variables and use them to build random forest and gradient boosting models along with neural networks and a stacking model for different forecasting horizons (1, 2, 3, 6, 9 months). Based on the data from February 2014 to October 2018 we show that these models with fine-tuned architectures can successfully compete with logistic regression usually applied for this task. Stacking and random forest generally have the best forecasting performance comparing to the other models. We evaluate models with commonly used performance metrics (ROC-AUC and F1) and show that, depending on the task, F1-score could be better at defining the model’s performance. Comparison of the results depending on the metrics applied and types of cross-validation used illustrate the importance of choosing the appropriate metric for performance evaluation and the cross-validation procedure, which accounts for the characteristics of the data set and the task under consideration. The developed approach shows the advantages of non-linear methods for bank regulation tasks and provides the guidelines for the application of machine learning algorithms to these tasks.
    Keywords: machine learning, random forest, neural networks, gradient boosting, forecasting, bank supervision
    JEL: C53 C52 C5
    Date: 2019–08

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