nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒07‒15
eight papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. EDB Macroreview, December 2018. Macroeconomic Stability Tested By Kuznetsov, Aleksei; Berdigulova, Aigul
  2. «Hieroglyphs of protest»: Internet Memes and Protest Movement in Russia By Svetlana Shomova
  3. L’internationalisation des marchés en productions animales By Chatellier, Vincent
  4. Examining the Impact of E-Procurement in Ukraine By Artur Kovalchuk; Charles Kenny; Mallika Snyder
  5. EDB Macroreview, April 2019. Republic of Kazakhstan: trends and forecasts By Kuznetsov, Aleksei; Berdigulova, Aigul
  6. EDB Macroreview, April 2019. Republic of Armenia: trends and forecasts By Kuznetsov, Aleksei; Berdigulova, Aigul
  7. Macroeconomic effects of US tariff on steel and aluminium: who would pay the bill? By Simone Salotti; Paola Rocchi; Jose Manuel Rueda-Cantuche; Inaki Arto
  8. Deposit insurance, market discipline and bank risk By Karas, Alexei; Pyle, William; Schoors, Koen

  1. By: Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank)
    Abstract: In 2018, the EDB member countries faced a number of challenges to regional macroeconomic stability. The main risks resulted from the global economic slowdown, growing protectionist trends in world trade and increased volatility in developing markets. Higher geopolitical tensions also had an impact on the regional macroeconomic situation. Despite the growing external challenges, the macroeconomic situation remained stable in the region, with most EDB countries’ fiscal policies aimed at achieving more sustainable economic growth and a balanced monetary policy. The favorable oil price during most of 2018 was another factor behind the improvement in the region’s economy. All the EDB member countries recorded positive growth rates in 2018, which we estimate at 2.0% overall. Inflation reached a record low and will stay within the central banks’ target ranges for 2018. The EDB member countries’ mutual trade grew by 12.5% versus January to September 2017. The 2017 and 2018 economic growth in the region was significantly assisted by eased monetary policies. Yet the recovery cycle is ending, while the inflationary risks are high. These factors combine to limit monetary policy’s ability to continue stimulating the economy. With the external risks mounting, it is increasingly important to find new sources of sustainable growth, in particular, by means of reforms intended to raise the economies’ efficiency and improve the investment climate. In the special report the team of authors gives recommendations concerning economic policy measures that might help overcome an economy’s structural and institutional limitations, taking Armenia as an example. Analysis of the structural gaps existing in Armenia allows us to identify the areas of reform that are being successful – as well as those which are lagging. In 2018, some member-states’ authorities initiated structural reforms. The Government of the Russian Federation announced a package of structural changes intended to stimulate sustainable growth of investment activity and pursue long-term social objectives. In Kazakhstan, presidential initiatives announced in the spring and fall of 2018 are largely intended to enhance the population’s welfare by improving the business environment and developing human capital. Such reforms may help improve the quality of Kazakhstan’s economic growth in the long run by making it more sustainable and based on an inclusive model of economic development.
    Keywords: macroeconomy; forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU countries; economic growth; monetary policy
    JEL: E17 E52 E66 O11
    Date: 2018–12–04
  2. By: Svetlana Shomova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Political Internet meme is an underresearched contemporary phenomenon situated at the interface of digital media and political communication. Regarded as a unit of online transmission of cultural information, such a meme can be considered, on the on hand, as a manifestation of post-folklore, and on the other hand, as a mechanism of political participation and construction of social media users’ collective identity. The article presents the results of investigation into Internet memes generated by protest discourse in Runet (Russian Internet). Examination of a vast amount of Internet content allows drawing conclusions as to the thematic emphases of protest actions represented in Runet’s memosphere and to the specifics of the image of Russian protest as reflected in memes
    Keywords: political communication, political participation, new media, meme, internet meme, protest, Russia
    JEL: Z19
    Date: 2019
  3. By: Chatellier, Vincent
    Abstract: Animal production accounts for 16% of international agri-food trade. The growing imbalance between supply and demand for animal products in Asian countries, where consumption is growing, particularly in China, stimulates trade for the benefit of the major exporting countries: the European Union (EU), the United States, New Zealand, Brazil and Australia. While this development offers trade opportunities for countries with a structural surplus, purchases fluctuate from year to year and price competition is very strong, despite the qualitative requirements of some countries. The EU, which has a positive trade balance in dairy products and pork, but a negative one (in monetary terms) in beef and poultry meat, is the world's largest exporter of animal products (with 22% of the extra-EU trade in 2016). This article analyses the evolution of trade in animal products using customs statistics data (BACI and COMEXT) from 2000 to 2016. It presents the evolution of international trade for different types of goods (dairy products, beef, pork, poultry meat) and highlights the trade trajectories (patterns) of the main net importing countries (China, Japan and Russia) and net exporting countries (India, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, the United States and the EU).
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade, Livestock Production/Industries
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Artur Kovalchuk (Kyiv School of Economics); Charles Kenny (Center for Global Development); Mallika Snyder (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of Ukraine’s ambitious procurement reform on outcomes amongst a set of procurements that used competitive tendering. The ProZorro system placed all of the country’s government procurement online, introduced an auction approach as the default procurement method, and extended transparency. The reform was introduced with a dramatic increase in the proportion of government procurement that was conducted competitively. This paper examines the impact of ProZorro and reform on contracts that were procured competitively both prior to and after the introduction of the new system. It finds some evidence of impact of the new system on increasing the number of bidders, cost savings, and reduced contracting times.
    Keywords: E-procurement, Transparency, Competition
    JEL: H57 D73
    Date: 2019–06–11
  5. By: Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank)
    Abstract: In 2018, Kazakh GDP grew by 4.1%, supported by increased oil production and a favorable price situation in the world energy market. Revival of credit activity fostered expansion in consumer and investment demand. Separate sectors’ contribution to overall economic growth changed during the year. In the 1st half of 2018, the GDP increase was driven by high rates of growth in oil production and the manufacturing sectors. In the 2nd half of 2018, industry reduced its contribution to GDP growth while trade turnover and construction activity growth accelerated. Inflation was 5.3% YoY in 2018, within the National Bank’s target range (5–7%). The decrease in motor fuel prices after the upgrade of major oil refineries was completed, as well as the reduction in electricity and heat tariffs for households, did much to slow down inflation. As inflation slowed in 2018, the National Bank reduced its base interest rate repeatedly, to reach 9.25% at the end of the year (compared to 10.25% a year before). The Kazakh tenge exchange rate vs. the U.S. dollar and euro decreased in 2018. Trends in the Kazakh currency were in line with those of developing economies’ currencies, i. e. a weakening as the U. S. Federal Reserve System increased its rate and the world’s economic and political risks overall grew. Kazakhstan’s consolidated budget posted a surplus in 2018, the first time since 2015. The factors behind the budget improvement included the State’s increasing incomes amid a relatively favorable external environment and economic growth, as well as decreased public spending on reviving the banking system compared to 2017. In 2019, we expect economic growth to slow down to 3.3% as oil production declines due to planned oilfield repair works. Next year, we forecast GDP growth at 3.5%. Inflation in 2019–2021 is projected to be within the National Bank’s target range (4–6%) and to gradually approach its lower limit by the end of the projection period, as the interest rate on interbank loans in tenge is kept near its neutral level, which we estimate at 7.5–8%.
    Keywords: macroeconomy; forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU countries; economic growth; monetary policy
    JEL: E17 E52 E66 O11
    Date: 2019–05–21
  6. By: Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank)
    Abstract: For the second consecutive year, Armenia remains the fastest-growing EAEU economy. In 2018, it grew by 5.2% after 7.5% the year before. The main factors behind the slowdown in its economic activity were the more moderate growth of household consumption than in 2017 and a decline of consumption in the public sector. The EDB projects Armenian GDP growth to accelerate somewhat in 2019, assisted by increasing investment activity as the extraction industry gradually adapts to the new requirements, a recovery in agricultural output, and Government policy that supports investment, exports, and improving social conditions. In the medium term, GDP will trend towards its potential rate, that we estimate at some 5% per annum. During 2018, inflation remained below the 4% CBRA target; in December 2018 it was 1.8% YoY. The main factor behind inflation trends in 2018 was food price volatility after a lower harvest. According to our estimates, inflation will accelerate to 2.8% in 2019, driven by increasing domestic demand as wages and lending grow. By the end of 2021 inflation will approach the CBRA target (4%). Given the economic background, the CBRA did not change its refinancing rate (6%) in 2018 and thus maintained a stimulative monetary policy. Interest rates on loans and deposits decreased during the year. According to our base scenario projection, as inflation gradually accelerates and approaches the CBRA target level, the CBRA will begin a series of rate rises that we expect to have a neutral impact on economic growth and inflation. In 2018, amid economic activity growth, the government pursued a tight fiscal policy to maintain debt and fiscal sustainability. In the medium term, the focus of fiscal policy will remain the same.
    Keywords: macroeconomy; forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU countries; economic growth; monetary policy
    JEL: E17 E52 E66 O11
    Date: 2019–05–21
  7. By: Simone Salotti (European Commission - JRC); Paola Rocchi (European Commission - JRC); Jose Manuel Rueda-Cantuche (European Commission - JRC); Inaki Arto (Basque Centre for Climate Change – BC3)
    Abstract: In March 2018, the United States (US) President Donald Trump announced the imposition of a tariff on US imports of steel and aluminium products. This technical report sheds light on the possible macroeconomic impacts of this policy, focusing in particular on exports, value added (VA), output and employment. The modelling analysis considers two possible scenarios to be compared with a baseline in which no tariffs are imposed by the US government. In the first scenario we assume that the European Union (EU) is exempted from the new tariffs. In the second scenario we instead assume that the EU is not exempted, as it has been declared that the exemption is only temporary. Under an EU exemption, the most significant economic effect of the US tariff involves the trade of basic metals' products to the US whose volume would decrease due to the protectionist measure. The most exposed countries would be India, Russia, and Turkey, although the impact of the new tariffs on GDP and employment is negligible. The US metal industry would increase its production, to the detriment of other sectors which would face higher input costs (such as manufacture of electrical equipment, machinery, or motor vehicles and other transport equipment).In a second scenario that assumes no exemption for the EU, EU metal products exports would be lower by slightly more than 1% with respect to the non-tariff baseline scenario. Still, there would be countries hit more severely, like Russia and India. In all cases, though, the overall effects on total exports would be much smaller due to the relative importance of the metal sector in the economy.
    Keywords: US steel and aluminium tariffs, FIDELIO model, multi-regional input-output model, value added, exports, employment
    Date: 2019–06
  8. By: Karas, Alexei; Pyle, William; Schoors, Koen
    Abstract: Using evidence from Russia, we explore the effect of the introduction of deposit insurance on bank risk. Drawing on within-bank variation in the ratio of firm deposits to total household and firm deposits, so as to capture the magnitude of the decrease in market discipline after the introduction of deposit insurance, we demonstrate for private, domestic banks that larger declines in market discipline generate larger increases in traditional measures of risk. These results hold in a difference-in-difference setting in which state and foreign-owned banks, whose deposit insurance regime does not change, serve as a control.
    JEL: E65 G21 G28 P34
    Date: 2019–06–27

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