|
on Confederation of Independent States |
|
Issue of 2019‒07‒08
twenty-six papers chosen by Alexander Harin Modern University for the Humanities |
| By: | Burkhanov Aktam; Tursunov Bobir |
| Abstract: | The article discusses the features of mutual funds, examining Russia's experience using an example. The emergence of investment funds in Russia was predetermined by the course of economic reforms taking place during the transition of the Russian economy to market relations. The need for the formation of various forms of ownership, the presence of which is characteristic of market conditions of management, was the prerequisite for the emergence of mechanisms to facilitate the implementation of this process. One of these mechanisms has become an investment fund. The peculiarity of this institute is the purposeful activity of servicing a small investor who invests his money in securities. Widespread in the world and high rates of development of investment funds largely explain the pattern of their emergence in Russia, where the issue of creating such an institution to attract savings to a wide range of small and medium-sized investors, able to ensure high standards of management of attracted assets, has become obvious and highly relevant. Key Words:investment funds, mutual fund, financial market Policy |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vor:issues:2019-29-12&r=all |
| By: | Elena Minina (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the logics of teachers’ discursive resistance to the Unified State Examinations (USE) almost two decades after its introduction into the Russian education system. By drawing upon NVivo-aided Discourse analysis of online teacher discussions, interview and focus group data, the analysis critically examines the pedagogical underpinnings of USE vis-a-vis the traditional assessment system in the teaching community in two Russian cities: Moscow and Rostov-on-Don. Drawing on the concept of ‘actually existing neoliberalisms’ the analysis shows how, when interpreted through the lens of grassroots pedagogical values, the semantics of the globalized concepts of ‘educational standardization’ and ‘standardized testing’ takes on domestic culturally-specific meanings complementary and, at times, contradictory to the intended ones. In Russia specifically, the notion of ‘standardization’ comes into conflict with the pedagogical idea of a creative personalized and, therefore, profoundly ‘non-standard’ education, while academic assessment continues to be perceived as the non-quantifiable and subjective outcome of teacher-pupil interaction over time. The analysis underscores the interpretative and symbolic dimensions of educational policy and calls for more nuanced efforts to culturally tailor and translate borrowed educational meanings on the part of educational elites. |
| Keywords: | neoliberalism and education, Unified State Examination, post-Soviet Russia, standardized testing, discourse analysis. |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:51edu2019&r=all |
| By: | Khlomov, Kirill (Хломов, Кирилл) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Aggressive behavior among adolescents in recent years has been actively developing in the Internet space (both in Russia and abroad), and therefore there is a growing need to study the forms, prevalence, causes and consequences of cyberbullying and develop measures for its suppression and prevention in the framework of psychological pedagogical work. The article presents the results of a study of the experience of meeting Russian adolescents with episodes of harassment on the Internet. The paper analyzes the prevalence of cyberbullying episodes, the emotional and behavioral responses of participants based on self-report, age and gender differences, and the moral evaluation of cyberbullying by adolescents. The article discusses the research and applied perspectives of psychological work in the field of Internet security of adolescents. |
| Keywords: | cyberbulling, bulling, teenager, internet, online risks, aggression |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061907&r=all |
| By: | Khristoforova, Olga (Христофорова, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The Nganasans (outdated Samoyeds, Tavgiians) are a small indigenous people who live on the Taimyr Peninsula in the north of Siberia (according to the 2010 All-Russian Census, there are 862 people). The Nganasans are the heirs of the Paleolithic aborigines of the Arctic, assimilated by Samoyedians. They traditionally led the nomadic way of life of Arctic hunters and lived relatively independently of the state, until in the 1950s and 1960s they were resettled by the Soviet authorities to the villages (Ust-Avam, Volochanka, Novaya) located to the south of their traditional residence. The Nganasans adhered to shamanistic beliefs and practices that did not experience serious influence from the Russian and later Soviet states due to the remoteness of the territory of residence of this people. After the death of the last two Nganasan shamans, representatives of the shamanic dynasty of the Ngamtusuo (Kosterkin) family, brothers Demnime (1913-1980) and Tubyaku (1921-1989), the Nganasan shamanic tradition was cut short. Nowadays, shamanic chants can be heard only in the performance of folklore groups (“folklore on the stage”). Why did this happen? Perhaps the reason is the influence of Russian culture, language and cultural assimilation? Or in the fight against religion in the Soviet era? The author believes that the reasons for the disappearance of Nganasan shamanism and the traditional culture in general are several reasons, the main one being the change in the type of economic and lifestyle that occurred after the mass transfer of Nganasans to settled life in the 1950s and 1960s. |
| Keywords: | peoples of Siberia, nganasans, arctic hunters, shamanism, folklore, transformation of traditional culture in the process of modernization |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061911&r=all |
| By: | Tanshina, Natalia (Таньшина, Наталия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The work examines a set of issues related to the perception of Russia and Russians in France’s public opinion and to such phenomena as “Informational Wars” (or "Journalistic Wars", as they were called in the nineteenth century), "the Russian threat" and Russophobia - on the example of the relations between Russia and France in the Post-Napoleonic era and on the background of the international relations system of that time. The study of these issues has undoubted scientific and practical relevance. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061908&r=all |
| By: | Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | In 2018, the Russian economy grew at its highest rate since 2012. Higher net exports were the main factor behind accelerated growth. Consumer and investment activity remained positive contributors to economic growth. We expect Russia’s GDP growth to slow temporarily, constrained by the increased tax load and the impact of the key rate increase in late 2018. Increased investment expenditures of the federal budget and gradual normalization of monetary policy from 2nd half of 2019 will foster a mid-term economic recovery to the potential rate, that we estimate at 2% per annum. The Russian ruble’s exchange rate became more volatile in 2018 amid exacerbated geopolitical tension. Harsher U. S. sanctions rhetoric caused greater capital outflow from the Russian economy, reflected in quicker weakening of the ruble. Barring additional shocks, we expect the Russian currency to strengthen over 2019 from the level of late 2018, in particular because return on Russian assets will remain high. Inflation accelerated in 2018, driven by a weakening ruble, faster growth of some food prices and price correction in advance of the VAT increase. The increase in inflation in 2nd half of 2018, accompanied by growing inflationary expectations, led the CB RF to raise its key rate twice, by 0.25 pp in September and December, to 7.75% at the end of 2018. We expect the acceleration of inflation to continue into the 1st half of 2019, mainly driven by the VAT increase. Starting in 2nd half of 2019, inflationary pressure will decrease gradually and allow inflation to return to its target level in 2020. As inflation slows, the key rate is expected to return to its neutral level, that we estimate at 6.5– 7%, in 2020. In 2018, the federal budget posted a surplus for the first time since 2011, assisted by a favorable commodity price background in most of 2018. The budget is expected to remain in surplus in the medium term, with oil prices staying above USD 60 per barrel. The budgetary policy focus will gradually move towards higher investment expenses in the coming years, with effects including a higher potential economic growth rate. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomy; forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU countries; economic growth; monetary policy |
| JEL: | E17 E52 E66 O11 |
| Date: | 2019–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2019_006&r=all |
| By: | Malakhov, Vladimir (Малахов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Just a few decades ago, it was a commonplace that religion is hardly combined with modernity, and that processes of modernization will contribute to further displacement of religion in a purely private sphere. However the situation has changed significantly in recent years. It is no coincident that the concept of secularization was replaced by the theories of desecularization and post-secularism. These were international migrations that became a key factor, forcing students to reconsider the usual place of religion in Western society; as for the post-Soviet space, the main role was played by the collapse of the Soviet atheistic state. The main goal of this paper is to analyze the content of collisions around the problems of secularism, religious rights and freedoms that exist in the public sphere of contemporary societies, as well as to trace the main trends in state regulation of inter-religious relations observed both in Western liberal democracies and in Russia. |
| Keywords: | religion, interfaith relations, secularism, clericalism, Islam, Orthodoxy, multiculturalism, migration. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061909&r=all |
| By: | Fedotenkov, Igor |
| Abstract: | In this paper we apply time series analysis to examine weekly data of Vladimir Putin’s approval and confidence ratings and their dependence on terrorist attacks. We find that minor terrorist attacks with few or no mortal casualties in Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan increase Putin’s ratings, while major terrorist attacks, with more than four mortal casualties, have a negative impact. There is also evidence that terrorist attacks in other Russian regions reduce Putin’s public approval; however, this evidence is weaker and depends on the model specification. The effects of terrorist attacks on the confidence rating are indistinguishable from the statistical noise. Furthermore, we control for main annual media events with President Putin’s participation: the television Q&A program `Direct Line with V. Putin', address to the Federal Assembly and a large annual conference. All three media events increase the president’s approval, with `Direct Line' having the least effect. Only the large annual conference has a significant positive impact on respondents’ confidence in Putin. |
| Keywords: | Terrorist attack, Russia, Putin, approval ratings, confidence ratings |
| JEL: | D72 H56 N4 N44 P20 P26 Y8 |
| Date: | 2019–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:94638&r=all |
| By: | Klyachko, Tatiana (Клячко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Avraamova, Elena (Авраамова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Loginov, Dmitriy (Логинов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Polushkina, Elena (Полушкина, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Semionova, Elena (Семенова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Every year the Center of the Economics for Continuing Education of the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public administration monitors the youth labor market problems. This article uses fieldwork collected in the three regions of the Russian Federation. The results of the monitoring made it possible to identify the main patterns of youth employment in economic context. |
| Keywords: | monitoring, youth employment, economic context |
| JEL: | J62 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:061901&r=all |
| By: | Zhdanov, Dmitriy (Жданов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Mikhail (Кузнецов, Михаил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Gumilevskaya, Olga (Гумилевская, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pakhomova, Galina (Пахомова, Галина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Rogova, T.V. (Рогова, Т.В.) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper is devoted to the study of possible methods of improving corporate governance, primarily in companies with state participation. The research methodology is based on the approaches underlying the Russian Code of Corporate Governance and the recommendations of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The study determined the impact of the quality of corporate governance on the financial performance of companies with state participation, and on this basis prepared recommendations for improving the efficiency of management of Russian companies with state participation. The work also formed proposals for improving domestic corporate relations and, in particular, suggested recommendations on how to organize the selection by business owners of senior executives of the corporation when they are hired, shows the mechanism of their work and features of interpretation of the results. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061913&r=all |
| By: | Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | In 2018, the Belarusian economy showed a high growth rate as it recovered after the recession in 2015–2016. Economic growth was supported by increasing consumer and investment activity as lending expanded, the population’s income grew, and the real sector’s economic sentiment improved. The economic growth rate in 2018 gradually slowed down as the monetary conditions’ stimulating effect decreased and the low base effect petered out. The EDB predicts Belarusian GDP to increase annually by 1.5–2% in the medium term in the absence of additional stimulation. The Belarusian ruble was highly volatile in 2018. The Belarusian currency was affected by aggravating geopolitical tension that caused the exchange rate of the Russian ruble and other EDB member countries’ currencies to fluctuate. In the medium term, the Belarusian ruble will devalue at a moderate rate as inflation in Belarus stays higher than in its main trade partner countries. Inflation in 2018 kept within the NB RB’s target range, managed by a balanced monetary policy. Yet, after reaching its historic minimum in June and July 2018, inflation began accelerating in the second semester as food and fuel price growth increased and inflation in the RF accelerated while consumer demand remained high. The buildup of inflationary pressure led the NB RB to suspend its refinancing rate reduction cycle in 2nd half of 2018. In 2019, inflation is expected to accelerate temporarily and perhaps exceed its end-of-year target level of 5%. Consumer price growth may be brought about by inflation increasing in the RF, gradual evaluation of the Belarusian ruble, and the persistent inflationary influence of wages. We predict this to be a temporary process, however, and in 2020 and 2021 inflation will be close to the NB RB’s targets. The IBC rate is expected to be in the 10–11% range, which is consistent with its neutral level. The Republic’s budget surplus expanded considerably in 2018 due to temporary factors, including commodity price growth and a high recovery growth rate in the national economy. The budget surplus reduced the country’s need to refinance its public debt. In the medium term, the budgetary and fiscal policy will remain focused on the improvement of fiscal and debt stability. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomy; forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU countries; economic growth; monetary policy |
| JEL: | E17 E52 E66 O11 |
| Date: | 2019–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2019_003&r=all |
| By: | Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | After two years of economic recovery, GDP growth slowed to 3.5% in 2018, from 4.7% in 2017. The economic slowdown was caused by a decline of production at the Kumtor gold mine and stabilization of the growth rates in other sectors at near potential levels. Domestic demand in 2018 showed unstable growth, reflecting the volatility of households’ real incomes. A slowdown in lending and remittances inflows growth rates in 2018 compared to 2017, as well as deferred demand of the public sector, also constrained domestic demand. The deviation of inflation from the target during 2018 resulted from weak prices in the world food markets as well as from the high base effect in the vegetables and solid fuel segments. The current account deficit expanded as the negative goods and services balance widened, while the net inflow of current transfers remained virtually the same as in 2017. The state budget posted a deficit of 1.1% of GDP in 2018, down from 3.1% of GDP the year before. The decreased State budget deficit resulted from lower public spending and slightly higher budget revenues. The slower growth in budget revenues was due to lower grants received from other countries’ governments and international organizations, while tax revenue growth was unchanged. Public debt decreased in nominal terms, mainly on account of the debt to the Russian Federation being written off pursuant to an agreement between the countries. In May 2018, the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic reduced its policy rate from 5.0% to 4.75% as inflation was low, and took a number of decisions concerning the width of the interest band during the year. In 2019, economic activity in the Kyrgyz Republic is projected to accelerate, largely on account of optimistic assessments of its gold production volumes and moderate expansion of public sector demand. In the medium term the economy is expected to grow steadily at near potential rates. The inflation trends will depend on the world food market. According to our assessment, world food prices will start recovering in the 1st half of 2019 and stabilize by early 2020, which, in turn, will shape the growth trajectory of the consumer price index in the Kyrgyz Republic. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomy; forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU countries; economic growth; monetary policy |
| JEL: | E17 E52 E66 O11 |
| Date: | 2019–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2019_001&r=all |
| By: | Irina Kozlovtceva (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Andrey Sinyakov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Stas Tatarintsev (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study how systematic monetary policy under inflation targeting in a commodity-exporting economy not fully isolated from commodity price volatility by fiscal policy may contribute to financial instability by fueling the credit cycle when commodity prices increase or by amplifying the credit crunch when commodity prices decline. We report several empirical observations that illustrate the potential procyclicality (relative to credit developments) of inflation targeting policy where commodity price fluctuations are the main drivers of macroeconomic developments. Namely, we find that relative prices in commodity-exporting economies are much more volatile than in other countries. The length of periods when relative prices grow or decline is comparable to the monetary policy horizon of most inflation targeters (2-3 years). Note that the central banks that target inflation, including those of the commodity-exporting countries, usually target the headline CPI. This index accommodates relative price changes by design. We proceed with formal statistical testing using panel structural VARs and local projection models. The tests support the procyclicality of inflation targeting, but only in a group of emerging market economies, which in practice have more procyclical fiscal policy than advanced economies: monetary policy eases in response to a higher price of an exported commodity while real credit grows. Counterfactual exercises show that endogenous monetary policy responses to commodity shocks explain around 20% on average of the real credit growth in a group of commodity exporting countries for which the reaction of policy rates to commodity shocks is statistically significant. We cross-check the empirical findings by reviewing a collection of papers with estimated DSGE models and analysing impulse responses of real policy rates to commodity price changes. We also conduct a theoretical analysis and compare stabilization properties (while accounting for financial stability risks) of the inflation-targeting policy rule and the ‘leaning against the wind’ policy rules. Notably, we do this exercise conditionally on the role of commodity price shocks for the economy. For this purpose, we use the DSGE with financial frictions and a banking sector estimated basing for the Russian economy and measure the efficiency of policy results with different sensitivity to credit developments (the ‘leaning against the wind’ rules) under different variance of oil price shocks (which may be interpreted also as different efficiency of fiscal policy in insulating the economy from a given oil price volatility). Results show that when commodity price volatility is relatively high (fiscal policy is not countercyclical), leaning against the wind outperforms pure inflation targeting, thus supporting our empirical findings. Interestingly, even when the financial stability risks associated with the volatility of credit developments are negligible, a moderate leaning against the wind policy is still preferable. As policy implication, we point that a commodity-exporting economy should have countercyclical fiscal policy for inflation targeting to become countercyclical in a commodity cycle. |
| Keywords: | systematic monetary policy, optimal central bank policy, inflation targeting, macroprudential policy, relative prices, credit cycle, financial frictions, leaning against the wind, commodity prices |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F41 F47 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps42&r=all |
| By: | Belyaev, Maksim (Беляев, Максим) (Institute of State and Law of the Russian Academy of Sciences); Lapteva, Lyudmila (Лаптева, Людмила) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kulik, Alla (Кулик, Алла) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mikhailov, Anton (Михайлов, Антон) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Denisenko, Vladislav (Денисенко, Владислав) (Voronezh State University) |
| Abstract: | The work is devoted to understanding the value bases of the Russian legal system. The work investigates the competing value systems and determines the nature of their influence on the direction of legal policy, lawmaking and law enforcement activity. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061912&r=all |
| By: | Liderman, Yulia (Лидерман, Юлия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zolotukhin, Valeriy (Золотухин, Валерий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sklez, Varvara (Склез, Варвара) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In this study, the theater laboratory is presented as a paratype of Partitipatory art. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061904&r=all |
| By: | Levin, Mark (Левин, Марк) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Since the 2000s network communication has reached a huge audience, easily winning competition from such “traditional” media as television, radio and newspapers. Network communication tools become a platform for uniting people: first around addictions and hobbies, and eventually other interests, including political ones. The Arab Spring showed that the possibility of instant messaging to a large audience could become a serious political factor, and Facebook groups created to extinguish fires in Russia in the 2010s stimulate volunteering. Numerous meetings in the spring of 2017, the rapid processes of uniting people in Moscow from the beginning of May 2017, all these are signs of the beginning of the spontaneous formation of socio-economic structures in Russia. The object of the study is the individual behavior of agents within the network structure. |
| Keywords: | socio-economic structures, institutions, socio-economic policy, networks, networking, economic analysis |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061901&r=all |
| By: | Arthur Mustafin (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This article is devoted to a reconstruction of Soviet discussions on long cycles based on an analysis of a wide range of unknown and little-known historiographical sources and archival materials. The role of discussions in the formation of assessments and ideas about long cycles is shown. In particular, we show that the controversy between Kondratiev and Gosplan about the economic development of the USSR had a noticeable effect on the negative evaluation of Kondratiev’s method for identifying long cycles. The study defines the relations between Kondratiev’s views on the problem of long cycles and his probabilistic-statistical approach to the analysis of society. |
| Keywords: | long waves, Kondratiev cycles, pre-industrial economy, grain prices, time series analysis. |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:177/hum/2019&r=all |
| By: | Zulfiya Suleimenova (Ph.D. Candidate, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS)) |
| Abstract: | The dissolution of the Soviet Union, and the emergence of new states in Central Asia and the Caucasus created new political and security dynamics in these sub-regions. While the Caucasus was affected by the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the threat of conflict over shared water resources continued to exist in Central Asia. More than twenty years later, the protracted conflict in the Caucasus over Nagorno-Karabakh remains unresolved and effectively overshadows water-related problems; yet water is both a very important factor in the conflict, as well as potentially one of the keys for its resolution. In Central Asia the pessimistic scenarios did not unfold; however, the region remains a ‘classic example’ of water-related conflicts in most literature. This paper aims at understanding the root causes of water conflict in Central Asia, and the role of water in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the Caucasus. It attempts to shed light at the complex nature of water security, and its importance in the states’ security and sustainable development. The paper suggests that given a cross-cutting nature of water resources, there should be a more holistic approach to understanding the drivers of water conflict in both sub-regions, and to finding the ways for its resolution. A number of recommendations have been provided that may be utilized for addressing the complexity of water conflicts and to help in establishing a mutually beneficial cooperation between states. |
| Keywords: | water security, water conflict, water cooperation |
| JEL: | F51 Q25 Q34 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unt:wpmpdd:wp/18/01&r=all |
| By: | Kaukin, Andrey (Каукин, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Pavlov, Pavel (Павлов, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | A methodology for assessing the level of market power of metallurgical products producers was deveoped in the paper with the use of aggregated industry-level data. The first chapter of the paper presents an overview of theoretical and empirical approaches to modeling competition and assessing the level of market power in the metallurgical products market. The second chapter presents the characteristics of the Russian ferrous and non-ferrous metals markets. The third chapter describes the characteristics of the database, which was used to estimate the demand-supply system for metallurgical products market. The fourth chapter presents the results of econometric estimates of the level of market power in the market of ferrous and non-ferrous metals (the latter is examined on the example of products of the aluminum industry). |
| Keywords: | ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, competition models, level of market power, demand function, supply function, arbitrage limits, micro-level data, industry-level data. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061914&r=all |
| By: | Rudakov, Victor (HSE); Figueiredo, Hugo (CIPES – Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies); Teixeira, Pedro N. (University of Porto); Roshchin, Sergey |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the determinants and consequences of horizontal job-education mismatches, an increasingly relevant topic in debates about education and labour markets. This issue reflects the articulation of educational fields and occupations in the labour market. We evaluate the determinants of job-education mismatches and their impact on salaries of university graduates using comprehensive and representative national data for Russia. The study is based in graduates' assessment and statistical analyses. We find that one-third of graduates in Russia work in a job that is not related to their field of study. Moreover, graduates from fields that either generate more general human capital (social sciences, business, law, services) or where low pay is common (agriculture) are more likely to be in that situation. On the contrary, graduates from fields that generate specific human capital (e.g.: medicine) are considerably more likely to be matched. We find that mismatches negatively affect the earnings of university graduates and the higher the degree of mismatch, the higher the penalty for the mismatch. The study depicts that mismatch is penalized in the majority of fields except for low-paid ones (e.g.: agriculture). |
| Keywords: | job-education mismatch, education-occupation mismatch, horizontal mismatch, graduate salaries, labor market outcomes, human capital |
| JEL: | J24 J30 J31 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12407&r=all |
| By: | Valeria V. Lakshina (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the parsimonious method of embedding skewness in asset allocation based on the Taylor expansion of the investor utility function up to the third term and maximizing it by portfolio weights. This approach also enables us to consider investor risk aversion. Time-dependent multivariate asset moments are obtained via the GOGARCH volatility model with a normal-inverse Gaussian distribution for the error term. We explore the performance of the usual 2 moment utility and its 3 moment counterpart for a portfolio consisted of twenty assets traded on the Russian stock market. The results demonstrate that the 3 moment utility significantly outperforms the 2 moment utility by SD, MAD and CVaR for low levels of absolute risk aversion and by portfolio returns and investor utility level during the whole forecast period. |
| Keywords: | portfolio optimization, asymmetry of returns, risk aversion, GO-GARCH, normal-inverse Gaussian distribution, utility approach. |
| JEL: | C13 C22 C58 G11 G17 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:75/fe/2019&r=all |
| By: | Attila Melegh (Hungarian Demographic Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | In the beginning of the period under discussion each of the countries in the region was either following European patterns of emigration or was actually serving as a migratory target (for instance in the case of Moldova). In the 1970s and 1980s (in other words well before the actual collapse of state socialism) diverging patterns began to emerge the differences between which became acute after the collapse. Some of the sub-regions (the Balkans and the region around the Black Sea within the Soviet Union) actually became sources of migrants, while others, most notably Italy and Austria became destination countries of larger number of migrants. This is a distinctive story of the construction of inner dependency within a larger region the countries of which had a great deal in common, and this process needs to be analyzed with particular care. Thus smaller meaningful historical, geographic regions can be constructed on the basis of migratory patterns. These regions do not follow the “classic” divisions, and the state socialist and capitalist local histories are related to one another, regardless of divergences. State socialism was not isolated from global flows, and, more importantly, it partially reproduced global hierarchies and had its own effects on international migration. In a modified form, the world system approach is helpful in furthering an understanding of longer term developmental patterns. In the case of state socialist economies, the direct intervention of world capitalism had a longlasting impact on the migratory links between the countries within the region under discussion. Actually, most of the former state socialist countries in the region became dependent on remittances, as shown by Böröcz (Böröcz 2012). When state socialism collapsed in the late 1980s, the economies of the countries of the region were based on a huge industrial sector. Countries that were unable to counterbalance the collapse of local industry became sending countries and were partially re-ruralized and partially pushed into large scale emigration. Thus the break-up of socialism also did not have a uniform impact on the countries in question, and the impact also depended on historical developmental hierarchies and the related ability of the various countries to regain some of the losses in the industrial sector with gains in the service sector. The analysis offered here lends credence to the neoclassic macroeconomic theory of migration, but following Böröcz and de Haas I argue that its validity with regard to per capita GDP differentials is strengthened if it is linked to positions in global hierarchies (Böröcz 2009; de Haas 2010). It thus needs to be re-contextualized into a world system approach. The key point is that it is not simply GDP differentials that matter, but rather relative positions within the global economy, which themselves are in part the results historical processes and linkages. In other words, one needs to go back to the theories of global structural changes, which is the subject matter of global history and the literature on development. In addition, I have also argued that global hierarchies and the positions of a given country in these hierarchies may well be fairly accurately perceived by the local and migrant populations. It seems that a more direct link can be found between global structures and behaviors in the perception of global hierarchies. People seem to have ideas of developmental scales that can very clearly linked to actual per capita GDP figures. Thus people might well be aware of global inequalities and may even have clear ideas of complex sequences that might also orientate them in their decisions regarding migration. This hypothesis, however, merits further research, especially from the perspective of how positions in global hierarchies are perceived by people considering emigration. |
| JEL: | B24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nki:wpaper:17&r=all |
| By: | Ferraro, Simona; Meriküll, Jaanika; Staehr, Karsten |
| Abstract: | This article studies how changes in the statutory minimum wage have affected the wage distribution in Estonia, a post-transition country with little collective bargaining and relatively large wage inequality. The analyses show that the minimum wage has had substantial spillover effects on wages in the lower tail of the distribution; the effects are most pronounced up to the twentieth percentile and then decline markedly. The minimum wage has contributed to lower wage inequality and this has particularly benefitted low-wage segments of the labour market such as women and the elderly. Interestingly, the importance of the minimum wage for the wage distribution was smaller during the global financial crisis than before or after the crisis. |
| Keywords: | Minimum wage; wage distribution; spillover effects; inequality; Central and Eastern Europe; global financial crisis |
| JEL: | D31 J31 J38 P36 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87041&r=all |
| By: | Claudius Graebner (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria); Dennis Tamesberg (Department for Economic, Welfare and Social Policy, Chamber of Labour, Linz, Austria); Timo Kapelari (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria); Philipp Heimberger (Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies); Jakob Kapeller (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Institute for Socio-Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany) |
| Abstract: | By studying the factors underlying differences in trade performance across European economies, this paper derives six different "trade models" for 22 EU-countries and explores their developmental and distributional implications. We first introduce a typology of trade models by clustering countries based on four key dimensions of trade performance: endowments, technological specialization, labour market characteristics and regulatory requirements. The resulting clusters comprise countries that base their export success on similar trade models. Our results indicate the existence of six different trade models: the 'primary goods model' (Latvia, Estonia), the 'finance model' (Luxembourg), the 'flexible labour market model' (UK), the 'periphery model' (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, France), the 'industrial workbench model' (Slovenia, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic), and the 'high-tech model' (Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, Finland, Germany and Austria). Subsequently, we comparatively analyse the economic development and trends in inequality across these trade models. We observe a shrinking wage share and increasing personal income inequality in most of the trade models. The 'high-tech model' is an exceptional case, being characterised by a relatively stable economic development and an institutional setting that managed to counteract rising inequality. |
| Keywords: | Trade policy, cluster analysis, European Union, trade models |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ico:wpaper:95&r=all |
| By: | Shaytanov, Igor (Шайтанов, Игорь) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In terms of the whole project “Translation of the Renaissance Sonnet as a Comparative Problem”, the work done in June-December 2018 presents a detailed study of one of the most important (along with metaphorical and reflection) aspects that ensure the untranslatability of the Shakespeare's sonnet, which represents the most important cultural characteristic of the era - wittiness / sharp mindedness. This difficulty was faced by the Russian translators who were far from fully satisfied. Examples are from Philip Sidney's sonnets, but mostly from the Shakespeare collection. Among the theoretical problems of poetics solved in this text is the problem of the parodicity of the tendency that has received its name in the history of literature - antipetrarchism. The noncomical function of the game with the Petrarch convention demonstrates wittiness in action, playing an evolutionary role in the history of the sonnet form and in the formation of the modern mentality. |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061906&r=all |
| By: | Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | 2018 saw the highest economic growth rate since 2014. GDP increased by 7.3% after 7.1% in 2017. As a result, the economy continued along its steady growth acceleration path, somewhat above the potential level. Investment and consumer activity was the key factor behind the growth acceleration in 2018. The State infrastructural development programs continue to support investment demand and lay the basis of economic growth. The revival of domestic demand in 2018 was partially the effect of households’ deferred demand as inflation reached a record low. In the 2nd half of 2018, inflation reached the target range of 7% (±2 pp); it was 5.4% at the end of the year. The inflation trends were shaped by the world food market, the base effect in the fruit and vegetables sector, and transport and electricity tariff policy. The current account deficit expanded as the negative goods and services balance widened, partially due to growing imports of machines and equipment for the implementation of large-scale infrastructural projects. The expansion of the State budget deficit in 2018 also resulted from growing public investment. The State budget’s expenditures on the development of energy sector infrastructure grew 2.2 fold compared to 2017. Public debt stabilized in 2018, largely because most of the external funding was raised in the form of grants. In early 2018, the NBT reduced its refinancing rate from 16.0% to 14.0%. However, due to unforeseen external shocks that increased the volatility of EDB member countries’ currencies, inflationary risks increased again, and the monetary authorities suspended their rate reduction round. The banking system is moving in the direction of recovery, but the indicators remain weak. In 2018 the credit portfolio stopped shrinking and increased by 2.0%. In the projection period, the economic growth rate is expected to stabilize near 7%. The investment drive will continue to support the economy. Consumer demand expansion will slow down somewhat as remittance inflow decelerates and the low inflation background’s favorable effect on household income peters out. Inflation will depend on the situation prevailing in the world food markets. World food prices are expected to start recovering in the 1st half of 2019, and by the beginning of 2020 their trend will stabilize, which in turn will impact the trajectory of consumer price growth in the RT. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomy; forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU countries; economic growth; monetary policy |
| JEL: | E17 E52 E66 O11 |
| Date: | 2019–05–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2019_005&r=all |