nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒04‒22
ten papers chosen by

  1. Модель реального обменного курса рубля с марковскими переключениями режимов By Polbin, Andrey; Shumilov, Andrei; Bedin, Andrey; Kulikov, Alexander
  2. Russian Defense Innovation in the 2010s By Kashin, Vasily
  3. Go east: On the impact of the Transiberian Railway on economic development in Eastern Russia By Seiffert, Sebastian
  4. The Limits of Lending? Banks and Technology Adoption across Russia By Bircan, Cagatay; de Haas, Ralph
  5. Welfare effects of land market liberalization scenarios in Ukraine: Evidence-based economic perspective By Kvartiuk, Vasyl; Herzfeld, Thomas
  6. Securing personal freedom through institutions – the role of electoral democracy and judicial independence By Berggren, Niclas; Gutmann, Jerg
  7. Interdépendance complexe et hybridation des modèles institutionnels nationaux : le cas des relations énergétique UE-Russie By Locatelli, C.; Abbas, M.
  8. Growth and Inflation Regimes in Greater Tumen Initiative Area By Bataa, Erdenebat
  9. Boosting social entrepreneurship and social enterprise development in Lithuania: In depth-policy review By OECD
  10. Firm-level Investment Under Imperfect Capital Markets in Ukraine By Oleksandr Shcherbakov

  1. By: Polbin, Andrey; Shumilov, Andrei; Bedin, Andrey; Kulikov, Alexander
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze the relationship between the real Russian ruble exchange rate and real oil prices using the error correction model with Markov regime switching, which allows for changes in exchange rate policy. We find that during the period 1999-2018 real exchange rate dynamics was characterized by two clearly distinguishable regimes, one with fast and the other with slow adjustment to long-term equilibrium in response to oil price shocks. Further model testing shows that long-term relationship between real exchange rate and oil price is invariant to regime change. We also find that, despite adoption of a floating exchange rate policy in 2014, inflexible real exchange rate regime has been periodically identified in recent years. This could be due to the new budget rule, according to which Russian Ministry of Finance in February 2017 started purchasing foreign currencies in amount of excess oil and gas earnings of the federal budget.
    Keywords: real effective exchange rate; Russia; oil prices; Markov regime switching model; error correction model
    JEL: C22 C51 E52 F31 F41
    Date: 2019
  2. By: Kashin, Vasily
    Abstract: Innovation in the Russian defense industry has drawn significant international attention since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state of the nation address of March 1, 2018. While the first part of the address covered the usual ground of planned economic policies, the second part was an extended presentation of Russian defense industry achievements. What Putin left outwas as important as what he highlighted, and provides a clear picture of Russia’s prioritization of radical over incremental innovation, sometimes to the detriment of current battlefield readiness. This research brief discusses Russia’s successes and failures in modernizing its weapons systems since 2000.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Russia, defense innovation, Putin, radical innovation
    Date: 2018–05–30
  3. By: Seiffert, Sebastian
    Abstract: This paper addresses the question whether or not large-scale infrastructure investments have a causal effect of local economic development. By using a novel instrumental variable approach based on historical trade and travel routes across the Russian East, I am able to identify a causal and negative effect of remoteness to the Transsiberian Railway on local economic activity as measured by nocturnal lights emission.
    Keywords: Transport Costs,Railway,Russia,Nightlights,Regional Economics,Development
    JEL: O11 O18 R11 R40
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Bircan, Cagatay; de Haas, Ralph
    Abstract: We exploit historically-determined variation in local credit markets to identify the impact of bank lending on firm innovation across Russia. We find that deeper credit markets increase firms' use of bank credit, their adoption of new products and technologies, and productivity growth. This relationship is more pronounced in industries further from the technological frontier; more exposed to import competition; and that export more. These impacts are also stronger for firms near historical R&D centers or railways, and in regions with supportive institutions. Consistent with these results, credit markets contribute to economic growth in such regions.
    Keywords: credit constraints; Firm innovation; institutions; Russia; Technological change
    JEL: D22 G21 O12 O31
    Date: 2019–04
  5. By: Kvartiuk, Vasyl; Herzfeld, Thomas
    Abstract: [Introduction] When Ukraine adopted the 2002 Land Code, it chose to follow a liberal path of agricultural land relations, but failed to create the necessary conditions for the land market to function fully. The moratorium on land sales, implemented directly after the adoption of the Land Code, prohibited 6.92 million owners of land shares (16 % of the population) from fully exercising their property rights. Initially intended as a temporary measure, the moratorium has, to date, been extended eight times. As such, many landowners have passed away without ever being able to fully exercise their property rights. Economic losses caused by the prohibition of land sales are considerable. First, inability to transfer land from less to more efficient producers contributes to a situation where tenancy insecurity substantially reduces incentives to invest in technologies improving land use productivity. As a result, growth of the agricultural sector is substantially lower than it could have been with a free land market. Second, current management of land lease contracts incurs high transaction costs, which could be lowered if land users were able to buy plots. Third, one quarter of Ukrainian agricultural land is still owned by the government. Privatization of 10.5 million ha could generate substantial financial resources for newly reformed local governments. In addition, land sales market has a potential to expand respective tax base and improve the collection of land tax. Resources from privatization and improved tax revenues could substantially help restore the dilapidated rural infrastructure. In sum, due to gains in agricultural production and land privatization, Ukrainian experts estimate that liberalization could lead to a 3-9 % increase in the annual growth rate of the GDP.
    Date: 2019
  6. By: Berggren, Niclas; Gutmann, Jerg
    Abstract: Personal freedom is highly valued by many and a central element of liberal political philosophy. Although personal freedom is frequently associated with electoral democracy, developments in countries such as Hungary, Poland, Turkey and Russia, where elected populist leaders with authoritarian tendencies rule, suggest that electoral democracy may not be the envisaged unequivocal guarantor of freedom. Instead, an independent judicial system, insulated from everyday politics, might provide a firmer foundation. We investigate empirically how electoral democracy and judicial independence relate to personal freedom, as quantified by the new Human Freedom Index. Our findings reveal that while judicial independence is positively and robustly related to personal freedom in all its forms, electoral democracy displays a robust relationship with two out of seven types of personal freedom only (freedom of association, assembly and civil society as well as freedom of expression and information). These are types of freedom associated with democracy itself, but democracy seems unable to protect freedom in other dimensions. When we study interaction effects and make use of more refined indicators of the political system in place, we find that countries without elections or with only one political party benefit more from judicial independence than both democracies and multi-party systems without free elections. A number of robustness checks confirm these findings. Hence, it seems as if personal freedom has institutional correlates in the form of both democracy and judicial independence, with the latter safeguarding freedom more consistently and more strongly.
    Keywords: Freedom,democracy,judicial independence,political economy,institutions
    JEL: D63 D72 D78 K36 P48
    Date: 2019
  7. By: Locatelli, C.; Abbas, M.
    Abstract: Ce cahier de recherche vise à appliquer les problématisations des nouvelles approches de l’interdépendance (New Interdependence Approches – NIA selon l’acronyme anglais) aux enjeux relatifs à la régulation internationale de l’énergie et ce à partir d’un cas d’étude : la relation gazière entre l’UE et la Russie. Les interdépendances entre l’UE et ses fournisseurs extérieurs en matière de gaz naturel, au premier rang desquels figure la Russie, posent la question de la confrontation de préférences contradictoires des acteurs impliqués dans l’échange. L’interdépendance conflictuelle recèle un « effet transformatif » sur les régulations, les systèmes institutionnels et les politiques énergétiques de la Russie et de l’UE. Les deux modèles institutionnels font l’objet de changements incrémentaux porteurs de conséquences importantes. Dans l’interdépendance, la politique énergétique russe et les stratégies des acteurs russes se transforment pour faire place à un certain degré de concurrence. A l’inverse, il semble que de manière croissante celle de l’UE intègre des préoccupations d’ordre stratégique et d’économie politique qui ne se justifient pas par les seules considérations de création d’un marché unique et concurrentiel.
    JEL: F55 L22 L72 Q37
    Date: 2019
  8. By: Bataa, Erdenebat
    Abstract: This paper tests for multiple structural breaks in the mean, seasonality, dynamics and conditional volatility of Greater Tumen Initiative Countries’ (GTI) growth and inflation, while also accounting for outliers. It finds a drop in the level of Chinese growth rate in the third quarter of 2011 and of inflation rate in 1998. There are more volatility regimes than the growth regimes and most GTI countries are currently enjoying historically low volatility of their growth and inflation. Two exceptions are the increased growth volatility for Japan since 2006 and inflation volatility for Russia since 2012. There is an increased importance of seasonality in GTI and especially in Chinese inflation volatility, constituting at least a half of the total volatility.
    Keywords: China slowdown, multiple structural breaks, seasonality, Greater Tumen Initiative, growth and volatility regimes, growth and inflation.
    JEL: C18 C22 E31 E32
    Date: 2019–04–16
  9. By: OECD
    Abstract: This review provides an in-depth analysis of the Lithuanian policy ecosystem in place for social entrepreneurship and social enterprises. It identifies the country’s key strengths and challenges and provides policy recommendations to support the development of a stronger policy ecosystem for social entrepreneurship and social enterprises. Key policy issues analysed include: raising awareness and clarifying the conceptual framework (Chapter 2); coordinating policy and legal frameworks (Chapter 3); enhancing the role of social enterprises in public procurement (Chapter 4); promoting social impact measurement and reporting (Chapter 5); and improving their access to finance (Chapter 6).
    Keywords: local development, policy ecosystem, social economy, social enterprises, social entrepreneurship, social impact, social innovation
    JEL: L31 L33
    Date: 2019–04–18
  10. By: Oleksandr Shcherbakov
    Abstract: This paper develops and estimates a model of firm-level fixed capital investment when firms face borrowing constraints. Dynamically optimal investment functions are derived for the firms with and without financial constraints. These policy functions are then used to construct the likelihood of observing each of the investment regimes in the data. Structural parameters are estimated using data from the Ukrainian manufacturing sector in 1993–1998. I provide empirical evidence of the role of market and ownership structure for firm-level investment behavior. I also discuss the effects of international trade exposure and involvement in non-monetary transactions on the probability of facing financial constraints and the resulting fixed capital accumulation path. Estimation results are used to illustrate the welfare implications of financial constraints in the Ukrainian manufacturing sector.
    Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods; Economic models; Firm dynamics
    JEL: C61 C63 D24 G31
    Date: 2019

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