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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2019‒04‒08
twenty-six papers chosen by Alexander Harin Modern University for the Humanities |
| By: | Khuzina, Alfiya (Хузина, Альфия) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Tischenko, Tatiana (Тищенко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Moguchev, Nikita (Могучев, Никита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Suchkova, Olga (Сучкова, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Sokolov, Ilya (Соколов, Илья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Hudko, Elizaveta (Худько, Елизавета) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure bonds, as one of the most important instruments for financing long-term large-scale infrastructure projects in different countries of the world, have become widespread in both the government and corporate segments. The study attempted to develop proposals for the expansion of the Russian market of infrastructure bonds, taking into account the best international practices and investment needs of the Russian economy. Particular attention is paid to the features of the use of infrastructure bonds and trends in the development and regulation of this instrument in Russia. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031943&r=all |
| By: | Kazenin, Konstantin (Казенин, Константин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper describes the available sources of data on fertility among labor migrants from the countries of Central Asia in the Russian Federation. The current birth rate in the countries from which they migrate is also considered as a basis for comparison, which is necessary in the study of the birth rate among labor migrants. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031944&r=all |
| By: | Hai-Anh H. Dang (Survey Unit, Development Data Group, World Bank); Michael M. Lokshin (Survey Unit, Development Data Group, World Bank); Kseniya Abanokova (Higher School of Economics, National Research University, Russia); Maurizio Bussolo (ECA Chief Economist’s office, World Bank) |
| Abstract: | Russia offers the unique example of a leading centrally planned economy swiftly transforming itself into a market-oriented economy. We offer a comprehensive study of inequality and mobility patterns for Russia, using multiple rounds of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Surveys over the past two decades spanning this transition. We find rising income levels and decreasing inequality, with the latter being mostly caused by pro-poor growth rather than redistribution. The poorest tercile experienced a growth rate that was more than 10 times that of the richest tercile, leading to less long-term inequality than short-term inequality. We also find that switching from a part-time job to a full-time job, from a lower-skill job to a higher-skill job, or staying in the formal sector is statistically significantly associated with reduced downward mobility and increased income growth. However, a similar transition from the private sector to the public sector is negatively associated with income growth. |
| Keywords: | welfare dynamics, poverty, inequality, pro-poor growth, panel data, household surveys, Russia. |
| JEL: | C15 D31 I31 O10 O57 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2019-484&r=all |
| By: | Radchenko, Daria (Радченко, Дарья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In accordance with the instructions of the President of the Russian Federation, the Russian economy is faced with the task of getting into the top five largest economies in the world. One of the main ways to solve this problem can be to increase the aggregate factor productivity, including through the development of transport infrastructure as a supporting framework for the Russian economy. This leads to the need to update the existing strategic and program documents that determine the development of the Russian transport system in the direction of increasing the contribution to the TFP through the connectivity of the territories, increasing the mobility of labor resources and safe acceleration of the transportation of goods. Therefore, a correct assessment of the degree of formation of the transport infrastructure at the regional level, the positive effects that arise in the area of its development, and the impact of its development on the aggregate factor productivity, which the research conducted by the RANEPA is dedicated to, is an important task. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031945&r=all |
| By: | Aganbegyan, Abel (Аганбегян, Абел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kleeva, Lyudmila (Клеева, Людмила) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Krotova, Nadezhda (Кротова, Надежда) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the possibilities of accelerated socio-economic development of Russia on the basis of the preferential development of industries with the multiplicative effect of economic growth locomotives. These industries include: the automotive industry, housing, mass construction of highways and high-speed railways, as well as the branches of the knowledge economy: research and development, education, information and communication technologies, health care and related biotechnology. The paper discusses the possibilities of enhancing economic growth in the country due to the accelerated development of these industries, with particular importance given to their ability to cause a multiplicative effect, significantly increasing their real contribution to the economy compared to the cost of their development. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031953&r=all |
| By: | Scherbov, Sergey (Щербов, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shulgin, Sergey (Шульгин, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a multi-region demographic forecast of Russia until 2050 is built and analyzed. In the baseline scenario in 2050, the population of Russia is 145,970 thousand (a decrease of 0.2% from the 2018 level of 146,880 thousand). In the scenario with zero migration in 2050, the population is 139,714 thousand (a decrease of 4.9%). For Russia, the indicator of human life is estimated at 67.7 years in 2017 (61st place in the world). The paper estimates the threshold of old age in Russia for women was 69 years and 62.6 years for men. The median age increases from 39.2 years in 2018 to 46.4 years in 2050, while the promising (taking into account increased life expectancy) median age in 2050 is 34.7 years. |
| Keywords: | demography, demographic projection, indicator of human life, life expectancy, old age threshold, gender and age structure of the population, regional differentiation |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031948&r=all |
| By: | Klimanov, Vladimir (Климанов, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Budaeva, Kseniya (Будаева, Ксения) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Nikita (Кузнецов, Никита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Yagovkina, Vita (Яговкина, Вита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The presented work studies the features of the use of a differentiated approach were identified, the theoretical features of its use in regulating regional development; carry out the systematization of foreign experience in the application of a differentiated approach and regional policy; analyzes domestic experiments differentiated approach, including a detailed description of this approach in the Russian Empire and the USSR; makes a review of regulatory legal acts and financial instruments of differentiated support of the regions of the Russian Federation; identifies the possibility of using typologies and classifications in the development of regions, as well as offers recommendations on the application of a differentiated approach in the regulation of regional development. |
| Keywords: | differentiated approach, region, spatial development, regional policy, regional development, subject of the Russian Federation |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031954&r=all |
| By: | Masayuki Kudamatsu (Associate Professor, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the satellite images of nighttime light to estimate economic growth rates in four unrecognized states of the former Soviet Union: Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan, Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, and Transnistria in Moldova. We then compare these estimates against those similarly obtained for the parent states to gauge the impact of non-recognition as sovereign states on economic activities. The estimated economic growth rates do not differ much between the breakaway territories and their parent states, suggesting that the economic impact of non-recognition as states may be fairly limited. |
| Keywords: | Unrecognized states, the former Soviet Union, satellite data, civil conflicts, economic growth |
| JEL: | D74 O43 P48 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osp:wpaper:19e002&r=all |
| By: | Klyachko, Tatiana (Клячко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Avraamova, Elena (Авраамова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Semionova, Elena (Семионова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Loginov, Dmitriy (Логинов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The work assesses the employment of young people with different levels of general and vocational education based on sociological data. The information base of the study was the results of monitoring the employment mechanisms of graduates of educational organizations of different levels, conducted by experts of the Center for the Economics of Continuing Education of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation in 2016-2017. A youth employment analysis was conducted for formally and informally employed youth. In assessing the employment of young people, not only the different levels of general and vocational education of young specialists were taken into account, but also the gender, regional and age characteristics of young people were taken into account. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031960&r=all |
| By: | Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde Johanna |
| Abstract: | Using a threshold vector error correction model approach we find the wheat market of Russia segmented, with the primary grain export region poorly integrated into the domestic market. Results also indicate that trade costs are high, hindering spatial market efficiency of wheat markets in Russia. In addition, our study demonstrates that, by including the USA as benchmark country, a comparative approach enables a more comprehensive assessment of the spatial market efficiency of the wheat market in Russia. The study shows that the distinction between grain production and export potential, especially for markets located in peripheral regions of Russia, is essential to correctly identify Russia's future role for global food security. As a general conclusion, besides raising agricultural production potential it is also essential to strengthen spatial market efficiency in the agricultural sector to boost agricultural export potential and to increase global food security. |
| Keywords: | spatial market efficiency,grain production potential,Russia,TVECM,regularized Bayesian estimator |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:187&r=all |
| By: | Avraamova, Elena (Авраамова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Klyachko, Tatiana (Клячко, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Loginov, Dmitriy (Логинов, Дмитрий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Polushkina, Elena (Полушкина, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Semionova, Elena (Семенова, Елена) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Every year the Center of the Economics for Continuing Education of the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public administration monitors the youth labor market problems. This article uses fieldwork collected in the three regions of the Russian Federation. The results of the monitoring made it possible to identify the main problems that youth face in finding employment. This article presents main results about relationship between the quality of education received by the youth, work experience and professional perspectives on the labor market. |
| Keywords: | monitoring, youth employment, education, work experience |
| JEL: | J62 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:031963&r=all |
| By: | Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Nesterova, Kristina (Нестерова, Кристина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper is aimed at modeling of the proposed rise in retirement age for Russian economy (from 60 to 65 for men and from 55 to 60 for women) in the setting of a global CGE-OLGE model that includes over 100 countries grouped into 17 regions. The model takes into account the relevant long run demographic forecasts made by the UN and the current budget structure for all the 17 regions/ the results suggest a weak effect of the rise in retirement age on the economic activity and a substantial positive effect on a long-term balance of the state budget. |
| Keywords: | general equilibrium model, pension reform, retirement age |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031952&r=all |
| By: | Yanbykh, Renata (Янбых, Рената) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Gataulina, Ekaterina (Гатаулина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shishkina, Ekaterina (Шишкина, Екатерина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the current state of agricultural consumer cooperation in Russia, assesses the competitiveness of cooperatives in terms of financial status and level of state support. On the basis of the developed methodology, authors identify branches and regions where the potential for cooperation of small business forms is the highest and assess of its implementation at the present time. The potential change of the cooperation of personal subsidiary farms and small farmers, individual entrepreneurs in dairy cattle breeding for the inter-census period (2006-2016) has been revealed. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031957&r=all |
| By: | Matveev, Aleksey (Матвеев, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Andreev, Alexander (Андреев, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zhizhin, Mikhail (Жижин, Михаил) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Poyda, Alexey (Пойда, Алексей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Troussov, Alexander (Трусов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | Incineration of associated petroleum gas (APG) is an economically and environmentally unsustainable way to utilize it. Availability of APG incineration data varies by country; often statistics are limited or irrelevant. At present, satellite monitoring is the only instrumental method for measuring gas flaring volumes that is not related to the activities of oil and gas companies. However, the development of a monitoring methodology is faced with the need to process large amounts of data and introduce an algorithm for estimating volumes of burned gas. This paper describes an algorithm developed for the VIIRS sensor, and an analysis of the data obtained on the territory of Russia for the observation period. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031959&r=all |
| By: | Fokin, Nikita (Фокин, Никита) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper contains the construction of the large vector autoregression with 𝐿1 regularization on monthly data of Russian macroeconomic indicators taking into account the high dependence of the domestic economy on oil prices. The point of this work is to demonstrate the possibility and advantages of using the described approach to forecast Russian macroparameters using a large set of regressors, which from the theoretical point of view should improve the forecasts in comparison with models with a smaller dimension. Data on indices of industrial production, producer prices, investments, exports, imports, interest rates, indicators of consolidated and federal budgets, etc. were used. The final database consists of 45 variables with a total length of 15 years, for the period 2002M01-2016M12 - 180 points, from 44 regressors are endogenous, as well as one exogenous - the real oil price. The 𝐿1 regularization approach used in this paper allows us to estimate the model on such a large amount of data even if the observations are less than the number of estimated parameters. Based on the estimated model, we evaluate pseudo out of sample forecasts of indices of industrial production and the quality of the obtained forecasts was compared with the quality of the forecasts for the classical ARIMA model. The results of the evaluated model testify to the superiority of the evaluated model over all the benchmarks considered. |
| Keywords: | indices of industrial production, ARIMA model, VAR model, VAR-LASSO model, forecasting, impulse responses, long-run multipliers, oil prices |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031951&r=all |
| By: | Nijat Guliyev (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of external shocks on the economy of oil rich Azerbaijan. Using oil price and macroeconomic indicators of three major trade partners of Azerbaijan – EU, Russia, and Turkey - as the external shock variables, we analyze the effects of those shocks on the domestic macroeconomic variables of Azerbaijan during the period from 2000Q1 to 2017Q4, in the SVAR framework with block exogeneity restriction. The results show that the overall importance of the four groups of shocks, in descending terms, is in the following order: oil shock, EU origin shocks, Russia origin shocks, and Turkey origin shocks. The major findings of the paper are: a) among considered foreign shocks oil price shock is the most important foreign shock for the economy of Azerbaijan; b) in general EU origin shocks has larger impact on considered domestic variables compared to other trade partners origin shocks; c) Turkey origin shocks have almost no impact in any of the considered domestic variables of Azerbaijan, d) among considered external shocks oil price is the main determinant of the non-oil sector of economy, and e) among considered external shocks GDP growth of the trade partners is the main determinant of the inflation in Azerbaijan. |
| Keywords: | VAR, non-oil GDP, CPI inflation, oil price, external shock |
| JEL: | E10 E30 C30 |
| Date: | 2018–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aze:wpaper:1802&r=all |
| By: | Manuilskaya, Kseniya (Мануильская, Ксения) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Vyrskaya, Marina (Вырская, Марина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The preprint was written based on the results of a series of methodological experiments conducted by the Laboratory for Social Research Methodology of the RANEPA in 2018. The paper discusses the cognitive possibilities of online surveys to study narrow, hard-to-reach target groups. The key issue in the study of specific audiences - the search and involvement of respondents. To solve this problem, a stream sample was tested in studies — an approach to sample design is not typical of the Russian experience. Based on a methodological analysis of two online surveys, the attainability of representatives of such groups as labor migrants and people with disabilities (HIA) is analyzed. The result of the methodological work was the development of a methodology for assessing accessibility and recommendations on the use of online surveys in the study of narrow target groups. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031961&r=all |
| By: | Pokida, Andrey (Покида, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Zybunovskaya, Natalia (Зыбуновская, Наталья) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | In a scientific report presents results of a study carried out by the Center of social and political monitoring of the School of Public Policy of RANEPA in 2018. The research is devoted to the study of the state of legal culture of citizens representing various socio-demographic and professional groups. The results of the study are presented in comparison with the results of sociological surveys conducted by the Center in previous years by a comparable method. The main conclusions of the sociological study formed the basis of recommendations for the authorities on the formation of active citizenship, the development of legal culture of Russian citizens in the field of labor relations, including legal knowledge and skills that contribute to the establishment of productive dialogue between the subjects of social and labor relations. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031962&r=all |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Goran Vuksic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Growth in much of CESEE will remain healthy by post-crisis standards, but has passed its peak. We expect most economies to slow from here, reflecting weaker external demand and domestic capacity constraints. Global trade tensions, structural weakness in the eurozone and Brexit all pose downside risks to our forecasts. |
| Keywords: | CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, Serbia, convergence, business cycle, overheating, external risks, trade war, EU funds, private consumption, credit, investment, exports, FDI, labour markets, unemployment, employment, wage growth, unit labour costs, migration, inflation, savings rate, financial crisis, financial markets, direct lending, leverage, central banks |
| JEL: | E20 E31 E32 F15 F21 F22 F32 F51 G21 H60 J20 J30 J61 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:fpaper:fc:spring2019&r=all |
| By: | Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kiyutsevskaya, Anna (Киюцевская, Анна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Narkevich, Sergey (Наркевич, Сергей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Inozemtsev, Eduard (Иноземцев, Эдуард) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Hudko, Elizaveta (Худько, Елизавета) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | One of the most important issues of financial intermediaries` evolution as well as of the financial system as a whole is associated with the intensive introduction of fintech innovations. The study attempted to fill the existing gap related to a lack of understanding of the scope of fintech innovations and their classification, and to provide a comprehensive review of international experience, application practices and channels of influence of advanced technologies on traditional financial intermediaries, including central banks. Particular attention is paid to the features and trends in the development and regulation of fintech in Russia. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031941&r=all |
| By: | Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Shilov, Kirill (Шилов, Кирилл) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Suleimanova, Mariana (Сулейманова, Мариана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Golovanova, Elizaveta (Голованова, Елизавета) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Grebenkina, Alina (Гребёнкина, Алина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzed the main mechanisms for achieving consensus in distributed ledgers. Different types of distributed ledgers were classified according to the characteristics of who can form data chains and who has access to them. Such important applications of the distributed ledger (blockchain) as smart contracts were examined in detail, the principle of their work was described, the features of functioning on various platforms were systematized. Most of the work is devoted to a detailed review of the use of blockchain technology in the financial sector. Using the analysis of individual international and domestic practices as an example, the benefits of using the blockchain in the banking sector and in payment systems are analyzed. In conclusion, recommendations are given for economic policy in the field of blockchain technology implementation. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031942&r=all |
| By: | Gabriel Di Bella; Oksana Dynnikova; Slavi T Slavov |
| Abstract: | The short answer: The size of the Russian State has not increased much in the last few years, but its economic footprint remains significant. Concretely, the state's size increased from about 32 percent of GDP in 2012 to 33 percent in 2016, not far from the EBRD's estimate of 35 percent for 2005-10. This is different from the mainstream narrative, which contends that the state's size doubled in the last decade. However, a deep state footprint is reflected in a relatively high state share in formal sector activity (close to 40 percent) and formal sector employment (about 50 percent). The deep footprint is also reflected in market competition and efficiency. Although sectors in which the state is present are more concentrated, concentration is large even in sectors where the state's share is low. This suggests the need to protect and promote competition, in particular in state procurement. Finally, state-owned enterprises' performance appears weaker than that of privately-owned firms, which may be subtracting from growth. |
| Date: | 2019–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:19/53&r=all |
| By: | Taguchi, Hiroyuki |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to provide empirical evidence on the relationship between inflation targeting and the pass-through effect from exchange rate to consumer prices, focusing on the case of Mongolia. The study estimates a vector-autoregressive model, and examines the impulse responses of consumer prices to the shock of exchange rate for the pre-inflation targeting period and the post-inflation targeting period. The empirical analysis identified the existence of the pass-through effect during the pre-inflation targeting period and the loss of the pass-through during the post-inflation targeting period. It was speculated that the loss of the pass-through comes from the “forward-looking” monetary policy rule in Mongolian inflation targeting, so that it can work on the expectations of domestic agents such that they are less inclined to change prices in response to a given exchange rate shock. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Targeting; Pass-through Effect; Mongolia; Vector Autoregressive Model; Forward-looking Rule |
| JEL: | E52 F31 O53 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:92988&r=all |
| By: | Izryadnova, Olga (Изряднова, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Makarova, Olga (Макарова, Ольга) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyzes the relationship between the level of economic development and the characteristics of the quality of life, taking into account regional characteristics of the formation of the social sphere of regions. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:031949&r=all |
| By: | Kostrov, Alexander; Mamonov, Mikhail |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the phenomenon of hidden negative capital (HNC) associated with bank failures and introduces a product mismatch hypothesis to explain the formation of HNC. Given that troubled banks tend to hide negative capital in financial statements from regulators to keep their licenses, we attempt to capture this gambling behavior by evaluating product mismatches reflecting disproportions between the allocation of bank assets and the sources of funding. We manually collect unique data on HNC and test our hypothesis using U.S. and Russian banking statistics for the 2004{2017 period (external validity argument). To manage the sample selection concerns, we apply the Heckman selection approach. Our results clearly indicate that product mismatch matters and works similarly in both U.S. and Russian banking systems. Specifically, an increase in mismatch has two e ects: it leads to a higher probability that a bank's capital is negative and raises the conditional size of the bank's HNC. Further, we demonstrate that the mismatch e ect is heterogeneous with respect to bank size being at least partially consistent with the informational asymmetry view. Our results may facilitate improvements in the prudential regulation of banking activities in other countries that share similar features with either the U.S. or Russian banking systems. |
| JEL: | G21 G33 C34 |
| Date: | 2019–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2019_006&r=all |
| By: | Sabine Vuik (OECD); Marion Devaux (OECD); Michele Cecchini (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Two of the most important health risk factors for children and young adults are obesity and alcohol use. These risk factors are known to affect health and wellbeing, but may also have an impact on educational outcomes. The objective of this study was to assess a potential causal relationship between obesity or alcohol use, and educational outcomes, in Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Longitudinal data from cohort studies was used to establish temporal precedence. To ensure the absence of alternative explanations, regression models were adjusted for known confounders; instrumental variables were used to address endogeneity caused by reverse causality and potential unobserved confounders; and fixed effects analyses were used to correct for unobserved time-invariant confounders. The results suggest that the presence of obesity during childhood, as well as alcohol consumption during childhood, can have a negative impact on educational performance and future educational attainment. |
| JEL: | I15 I24 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2019–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaad:109-en&r=all |