nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒03‒11
twelve papers chosen by

  1. Which Sanctions Matter? Analysis of the EU/Russian Sanctions of 2014 By Belin, Matej; Hanousek, Jan
  2. L'Eurasie (2018) : une reprise en ordre dispersé By Julien Vercueil
  3. Box-Jenkins ARIMA approach to predicting total population in Russia By NYONI, THABANI
  4. A Macroeconomic Forecasting Model of the Fixed Exchange Rate Regime for the Oil-Rich Kazakh Economy By Tibor Hledik; Karel Musil; Jakub Rysanek; Jaromir Tonner
  5. Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates of the BRICS: Evidence from a Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis By Joao F. Caldeira; Rangan Gupta; Tahir Suleman; Hudson S. Torrent
  6. Identifying Bid Leakage In Procurement Auctions: Machine Learning Approach By Dmitry I. Ivanov; Alexander S. Nesterov
  7. Influence of petroleum and gas trade on EU economies from the reduced Google matrix analysis of UN COMTRADE data By C\'elestin Coquid\'e; Leonardo Ermann; Jos\'e Lages; D. L. Shepelyansky
  8. Improving the Efficiency and Equity of Public Education Spending: The Case of Moldova By Hui Jin; La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul; Baoping Shang
  9. Les relations commerciales agroalimentaires de la Russie avec l’Union européenne, l’embargo russe et les productions animales By Vincent Chatellier; Thierry Pouch; Cecile Le Roy; Quentin Mathieu
  10. Financial stability and public confidence in banks By Chernykh, Lucy; Davydov, Denis; Sihvonen, Jukka
  11. Exchange Rate Shocks and Quality Adjustments By Goetz, D.; Rodnyansky, A.
  12. "Agrarian Economy and Rural Development - Realities and Perspectives for Romania" By Ursu, Ana

  1. By: Belin, Matej; Hanousek, Jan
    Abstract: In this paper we use a natural experiment of reciprocal imposition of trade sanctions by Russia and the EU since 2014. Using UNCTAD/BACI bilateral flows data we take this unique opportunity to analyse both sanctions. In particular, we study the effectiveness of narrow versus broadly defined sanctions, and differences in the effectiveness of sanctions imposed on exports and imports. We show that the Russian sanctions imposed on European and American food imports resulted in about 8 times stronger decline in trade flows than those imposed by the EU and the US on exports of extraction equipment. These results do not appear to be driven by diversion of trade flows via non-sanctioning countries. Hence the difference in sanctions' effectiveness can be attributed to the broader range of sanctioned goods and potentially to a stronger position of enforcement of sanctions on imports rather than exports.
    Keywords: Bilateral trade flows; Differences-in-differences; International trade; Russia; sanctions; UNCTAD/BACI data
    JEL: C01 C23 F14
    Date: 2019–02
  2. By: Julien Vercueil (Inalco - Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales)
    Abstract: L'économie de la région, appelée ici Eurasie (l'ex-URSS moins les Pays baltes), a repris une véritable dynamique en 2017, après deux années difficiles (2015 et 2016) durant lesquelles la conjoncture régionale a été secouée par la crise de change russe (décembre 2014), suivie d'une forte récession économique, dans un contexte géopolitique plombé par le conflit armé en Ukraine. Avant 2017, la faible croissance de l'Union Européenne, principal partenaire économique de la région, et le recentrage de la Chine sur sa demande intérieure ont empêché la demande extérieure de prendre le relai de la demande intérieure affectée par les difficultés internes de la région, tandis que la chute des prix des matières premières pesait sur les comptes des entreprises et les finances publiques des pays qui en exportent. En 2017, les deux principaux moteurs de la reprise dans la région ont été le redémarrage de la demande ouest-européenne, qui a nettement accéléré dans le courant de l'année, et les prix internationaux du pétrole et des matières premières. Ces derniers ont stimulé la croissance de plusieurs économies importantes de la région, dont la Russie, dont le poids représente les trois quarts de l'ensemble. Pour juger de la durabilité de cette reprise, il convient d'en analyser la structure. En particulier, il faut évaluer dans quelle mesure elle n'est pas principalement due aux effets directs et indirects de la forte hausse tirées des recettes d'exportation de pétrole. Il faut également comprendre, et ce point est lié au précédent, si la croissance retrouvée est en mesure de consolider les relations économiques à l'intérieur de la zone considérée, ou si elle fragilise au contraire la cohésion de l'ensemble en renforçant des tendances centrifuges.
    Date: 2019–02–18
    Abstract: Employing annual time series data on total population in Russia from 1960 to 2017, we model and forecast total population over the next 3 decades using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA technique. Diagnostic tests such as the ADF tests show that Russia annual total population is I (2). Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is quite stable and that its residuals are stationary as well. The results of the study reveal that total population in Russia will continue to rise, but slowly, in the next three decades and in 2050 Russia’s total population will be approximately 147 million people. Three policy prescriptions have been suggested for consideration by the government of the federation of Russia.
    Keywords: Forecasting; population; Russia
    JEL: C53 Q56 R23
    Date: 2019–02–19
  4. By: Tibor Hledik; Karel Musil; Jakub Rysanek; Jaromir Tonner
    Abstract: This paper presents a semi-structural quarterly projection open-economy model for analyzing monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic developments in Kazakhstan during the period of the fixed exchange rate regime. The model captures key stylized facts of the Kazakh economy, especially the important role of oil prices in influencing the economic cycle in Kazakhstan. The application of the model to observed data provides a reasonable interpretation of Kazakh economic history, including the global crisis, through to late 2015, when the National Bank of Kazakhstan introduced a managed float. The dynamic properties of the model are analyzed using impulse response functions for selected country-specific shocks. The model’s shock decomposition and in-sample forecasting properties presented in the paper suggest that the model was an applicable tool for monetary policy analysis and practical forecasting at the National Bank of Kazakhstan. In a general sense, the model can be considered an example of a quarterly projection model for oil-rich countries with a fixed exchange rate.
    Keywords: Fixed exchange rate, Kazakhstan, monetary policy, QPM, stylized facts
    JEL: C50 E17 E32 E52 E58
    Date: 2018–10
  5. By: Joao F. Caldeira (Department of Economics, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul and CNPq, Brazil); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Tahir Suleman (School of Economics and Finance, Victoria University of Wellington & School of Business, Wellington Institute of Technology, New Zealand); Hudson S. Torrent (Department of Statistics, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil)
    Abstract: In this paper, we develop a non-parametric functional data analysis (NP-FDA) model to forecast the term-structure of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). We use daily data over the period of January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2016. We find that, while it is in general difficult to beat the random-walk model in the shorter-horizons, at longer-runs our proposed NP-FDA approach outperforms not only the random-walk model, but also other popular competitors used in term-structure forecasting literature. Our results have important implications for both policymakers aiming to stabilize the economy, and for optimal portfolio allocation decisions of financial market agents.
    Keywords: Functional data analysis, yield curve forecasting, performance evaluation, BRICS
    JEL: C53 E43 G17
    Date: 2019–02
  6. By: Dmitry I. Ivanov; Alexander S. Nesterov
    Abstract: We propose a novel machine-learning-based approach to detect bid leakage in first-price sealed-bid auctions. We extract and analyze the data on more than 1.4 million Russian procurement auctions between 2014 and 2018. As bid leakage in each particular auction is tacit, the direct classification is impossible. Instead, we reduce the problem of bid leakage detection to Positive-Unlabeled Classification. The key idea is to regard the losing participants as fair and the winners as possibly corrupted. This allows us to estimate the prior probability of bid leakage in the sample, as well as the posterior probability of bid leakage for each specific auction. We find that at least 16\% of auctions are exposed to bid leakage. Bid leakage is more likely in auctions with a higher reserve price, lower number of bidders and lower price fall, and where the winning bid is received in the last hour before the deadline.
    Date: 2019–03
  7. By: C\'elestin Coquid\'e; Leonardo Ermann; Jos\'e Lages; D. L. Shepelyansky
    Abstract: Using the United Nations COMTRADE database we apply the reduced Google matrix (REGOMAX) algorithm to analyze the multiproduct world trade in years 2004-2016. Our approach allows to determine the trade balance sensitivity of a group of countries to a specific product price increase from a specific exporting country taking into account all direct and indirect trade pathways via all world countries exchanging 61 UN COMTRADE identified trade products. On the basis of this approach we present the influence of trade in petroleum and gas products from Russia, USA, Saudi Arabia and Norway determining the sensitivity of each EU country. We show that the REGOMAX approach provides a new and more detailed analysis of trade influence propagation comparing to the usual approach based on export and import flows.
    Date: 2019–03
  8. By: Hui Jin; La-Bhus Fah Jirasavetakul; Baoping Shang
    Abstract: This paper, using Moldova as an example, presents a systematic approach to assess the efficiency and equity of public education spending, identify sources of inefficiencies and inequality, and formulate potential reform options. The analytical framework combines international benchmarking with country-specific analysis—such as microeconomic analysis based on household survey data—and can provide important insights into diagnosing and reforming education systems. The analysis finds significant scope to improve both efficiency and equity of the education sector in Moldova. Potential reform measures include further consolidating the oversized school network, reducing overstaffing, and better targeting government subsidies. The current remuneration policy could also be improved to attract high quality teachers and incentivize performance.
    Date: 2019–02–26
  9. By: Vincent Chatellier (LERECO CEDRAN - Laboratoire d'Études et de Recherches en Economie - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique); Thierry Pouch (REGARDS - Recherches en Économie Gestion AgroRessources Durabilité Santé- EA 6292 - SFR Condorcet - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne - UPJV - Université de Picardie Jules Verne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne); Cecile Le Roy (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AGROCAMPUS OUEST); Quentin Mathieu (APCA - Assemblée Permanente des Chambres d'Agriculture)
    Abstract: L'embargo appliqué par la Russie depuis 2014 a modifié soudainement certains courants d'échanges internationaux dans le domaine des productions animales. Bien que l'Union Européenne (UE) ait été temporairement affectée par cette décision politique, elle est parvenue à augmenter ses exportations dans plusieurs filières (lait, porcs et volailles), grâce surtout à la hausse des importations asiatiques.
    Keywords: Relations commerciales,Embargos
    Date: 2018
  10. By: Chernykh, Lucy; Davydov, Denis; Sihvonen, Jukka
    Abstract: We use a novel, household opinions-based measure – Public Confidence in a Bank – to explore the role of bank-level and system-wide determinants of customers’ trust in banks. Our study covers a panel of approximately 260 large Russian commercial banks publicly monitored during 2010–2017. We find that public confidence in a bank is highly sensitive to the industry-level financial stability indicators, but less sensitive to bank-level risk characteristics. This result reveals an important role of overall banking sector stability in determining public perception of the safety and soundness of individual banks.
    JEL: G21 D14
    Date: 2019–02–19
  11. By: Goetz, D.; Rodnyansky, A.
    Abstract: Do firms respond to cost shocks by reducing the quality of their products? Using microdata from a large Russian retailer that varies its offerings twice-yearly, we document that ruble devaluations are associated with a reduction in the observed material quality of products imported for resale, but that higher quality goods are also more profitable. We reconcile these facts using a simple multi-product sourcing model that features a demand system with expenditure switching, where more profitable products can be dropped more quickly after a cost shock. The estimated model shows that quality downgrading reduces average passthrough by 6% and has meaningful consequences for welfare.
    JEL: E30 F14 F31 L11 L15 L16 L81 M11
    Date: 2019–02–25
  12. By: Ursu, Ana
    Abstract: The volume contains the papers accepted and published in the proceedings of the 9th International symposium entitled: “Agrarian Economy and Rural Development - Realities and Perspectives for Romania’, organized by the Research Institute for Agriculture Economy and Rural Development – Bucharest, in cooperation with the Institute of Agricultural Economics - Romanian Academy, University of Agrarian Sciences and Veterinary Medicine – The Faculty of Management, Economic Engineering in Agriculture and Rural Development – Bucharest - Romania, Institute for Economy, Finance and Statistics – Chisinau - Republic of Moldova, Institute of Agricultural Economics - Belgrade – Serbia, under the high scientific patronage of the Academy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences ”Gheorghe Ionescu Sisesti”, held in Bucharest - Romania, on November 15th, 2018. The proceedings are structured in accordance with the sessions of the symposium: Concepts, evaluations and visions on the dynamics of rural socio-economy; Economy, management and agricultural marketing; Rural development and agricultural policies. In the symposium proceedings, there are shared knowledge, experience and the newest results of the research on agrarian economy and rural development domains, related to: the agri-food trade, the impact of new tax policies in semi-subsistence agriculture, statistical analysis of the socio-demographic and economic characteristics of rural areas, bioeconomy concept - challenges and perspectives for agriculture, land resources – structural evolutions, modernization and socio-economic development of the rural area, rural education, improvement and optimisation of soil conservation system “no tillage”, the analysis of the technico-economic indicators for the main crops, milk sector in international context, vegetable farm structure evolution by standard output, rentability of consumed resources in condition of conventional and ecological operation, analysis of the impact of coupled support in agriculture etc. The symposium proceedings is structured in 5 specialized sections, where the read my find interesting argues regarding this research field.
    Keywords: agriculture, rural development, rural economy, CAP.
    JEL: A1 C1 D2 N5 N50 O1 O12 O13 Q1 Q13 Q18 R0 R1 R11
    Date: 2018–11–15

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