nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒02‒18
seven papers chosen by

  1. Russia's growth problem By Marek Dabrowski; Antoine Mathieu Collin
  2. Sanctions: seriously and for a long time By Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель Александр); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз); Loshchenkova, Anna (Лощенкова, Анна); Proka, Ksenia (Прока, Ксения)
  4. Housing Rent Dynamics and Rent Regulation in St. Petersburg (1880-1917) By Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Leonid E. Limonov; Sofie R. Waltl
  5. How does subway and ground transit proximity affect rental prices? By Konstantin A. Kholodilin; Mariia A. Maksimova
  6. Impacts of Possible Chinese Protection on US Soybeans By Taheripour, Farzad; Tyner, Wallace E.

  1. By: Marek Dabrowski; Antoine Mathieu Collin
    Abstract: Between 2014 and 2016, the Russian economy suffered from a currency crisis caused by the collapse of oil prices and the country’s engagement in the conflict with Ukraine. Although the crisis was overcome in the second half of 2016 thanks to prudent fiscal and monetary policies and higher oil prices, economic recovery remains weak and Russia’s medium-term growth prospects look rather disappointing. The weak growth prospects are caused by several factors including - (i) adverse demographic trends – a declining working-age population and ageing of the population; (ii) a poor business and investment climate; (iii) difficulty in diversifying away from the dominant role of the hydrocarbon sector; (iv) Western sanctions on Russia in response to the annexation of Crimea and Russian support for separatists in the eastern Ukraine Donbas region, and Russian countersanctions. To increase potential growth, Russia needs comprehensive economic and institutional reforms that, in turn, will be conditioned by political reforms and by improved economic and political relationships with the United States, the European Union and Russia’s neighbours.
    Date: 2019–02
  2. By: Knobel, Alexander (Кнобель Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Russian Foreigan Trade Academy); Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Loshchenkova, Anna (Лощенкова, Анна) (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Proka, Ksenia (Прока, Ксения) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The report discusses the theoretical aspects of economic sanctions to assess and classify the restrictive measures used by the initiating countries in relation to Russia. Recommendations are proposed for the conduct of economic policy in the context of sanctions based on an analysis of the restrictive measures applied to Russia, their impact on the economy, as well as the assessment of the experience of various countries in countering sanctions. An assessment of the negative impact of sanctions on the economy of the Russian Federation is given - about 1 pp of GDP per year. It is shown that the most effective anti-sanctions policy is not the introduction of symmetrical measures and the closure of the markets for goods / services / capital, but the policy of “aggressive” openness of markets to cooperation. It is revealed that the main negative channel of the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy consists not so much in the level of sanctions as in maintaining uncertainty about future sanctions parameters. In this regard, in the short and medium term, it is advisable to focus on stabilizing the current level of sanctions to reduce uncertainty, rather than on their full or partial cancellation.
    Date: 2019–01
  3. By: Akan Kadyrbekov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Dmitry Veselov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper explores the e ect of migration of Russian settlers on the intra-regional development in Kazakhstan. We use the 1897 census dataset of the Russian Empire and modern economic data to provide links between Russian settlements in Kazakhstan in 1897 and the current level of economic development. Exploiting exogenous geographic and geopolitical sources of variation across twenty-six districts (uyezd) we provide the empirical evidence of positive impact of the migration of Russians in XVIII-XIX centuries on the current level of development. The paper discusses several channels of such in uence: human capital formation channel and the Soviet Union industrialization policy.
    Keywords: Intra-regional development · migration ows · historical development
    JEL: N13 N33 O1 O15
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Konstantin A. Kholodilin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Leonid E. Limonov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sofie R. Waltl (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research)
    Abstract: This article studies the evolution of housing rents in St. Petersburg between 1880 and 1917, covering an eventful period of Russian and world history. We collect and digitize over 5,000 rental advertisements from a local newspaper, which we use together with geo-coded addresses and detailed structural characteristics to construct a quality-adjusted rent price index in continuous time. We provide the first pre-war and pre-Soviet index based on market data for any Russian housing market. In 1915, one of the world’s earliest rent control and tenant protection policies was introduced in response to soaring prices following the outbreak of World War I. We analyze the impact of this policy: before the regulation rents were increasing at a similarly rapid pace to other consumer prices; the policy reversed that trend. We find evidence for official compliance with the policy, document a rise in tenure duration and strongly increased rent affordability for workers after the introduction of the policy. We conclude that the immediate prelude to the October Revolution was indeed characterized by economic turmoil, but rent affordability and rising rents were no longer the dominating problems.
    Keywords: Rental Market; Rent Regulation; Intra-Urban Rent Dynamics; Hedonic Rent Price Index; Economic History; Pre-Soviet Russia; October Revolution.
    JEL: C14 C43 N93 O18
    Date: 2019
  5. By: Konstantin A. Kholodilin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Mariia A. Maksimova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study focuses on the ground transportation system and its impact on the rents in 30 of Russia’s largest cities. It also compares the effect with subway transit networks. The data set includes rent information from an all-Russia online advertisement website Avito and various measures of proximity to the public transit network stops (including subways for cities with them). The analysis is conducted using linear hedonic models. The results show that the ground transportation proximity is important for housing rent formation in both cities with and without subways, although the effect for subway stations is greater in comparison. Nevertheless, the benefits of a denser ground transportation system are high and stable, whereas the distance to the closest bus stop and the number within the walking distance are important solely for cities with a subway system and without it, respectively.
    Keywords: housing rent; public transit; subway; hedonic analysis; largest Russian cities.
    JEL: C43 O18 R38
    Date: 2019
  6. By: Taheripour, Farzad; Tyner, Wallace E.
    Abstract: China is the world largest soybean importer and imported 93.5 Million Metric Tons (MMT) of soybeans in 2016, about 65% of global soybean imports. China imports soybeans mainly from Brazil, US, and Argentina. The shares of these three countries in China's imports were about 44%, 42%, and 9% in 2016. Canada, Uruguay, and Russia also export soybeans to China. The shares of these countries in total Chinese soybean imports were about 2.1%, 1.9% and 0.5% in 2016, respectively.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2018–02
  7. By: Maryna Tverdostup; Tiiu Paas
    Abstract: The study aims to assess productivity and efficiency of selected blue economy sectors in two neighbouring countries: Estonia and Finland. The analysis relies on the Amadeus database for both countries, implementing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and calculating partial productivity measures. The results of the study show that, on average, blue sectors report high performance indicators in coastal regions of the countries, the only exceptions being the tourism and bio and subsea activities sectors in Estonia and marine (cargo) transportation in Finland. The common pattern of imperfectly efficient blue sectors in both countries is a substantial excess of fixed assets, which convey extra costs for business activities and, to some extent, generate excessive environmental pressures. The special nature of a shared blue economic area of Estonia and Finland stipulates close cross-border cooperation as a major tool to improve performance of the imperfectly efficient sectors through shared “best practice” operations, technologies and infrastructures. However, the lack of appropriate cross-border statistical data restricts analytical opportunities and development of policy recommendations.
    Keywords: blue economy, economic performance analysis, cross-border statistics
    Date: 2019

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