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on Confederation of Independent States |
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Issue of 2019‒02‒04
seventeen papers chosen by |
| By: | Demidova, Olga (NRU HSE, Moscow); Kolyagina, Alena (NRU HSE, Moscow); Pastore, Francesco (Università della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli) |
| Abstract: | This paper is devoted to the study of diversification and specialization influence on one of the main indicators of Russian labour market, the unemployment growth. The purpose of the work is to find out which effects dominate in the Russian regions, Marshallian or Jacobs, and whether this predominance is stable for different time intervals. The following hypotheses were empirically tested: 1) the dependence of the unemployment rate on the degree of concentration or diversification is non-monotonic due to possible overlapping effects of urbanization and localization; 2) the influence of the degree of concentration or diversification on the level of unemployment depends on the time period. To test these hypotheses nonparametric additive models with spatial effects were used. Both hypotheses found empirical confirmation. It was shown that in Russia, depending on the period, various effects dominated: in 2008-2010, and 2013-2016 Marshallian effects predominated, while in 2010-2013, Jacobs effects dominated. |
| Keywords: | concentration, diversification, unemployment, spatial effects, nonparametric models |
| JEL: | J64 L16 L25 L52 R23 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12042&r=all |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Lokshin, Michael M.; Abanokova, Kseniya; Bussolo, Maurizio |
| Abstract: | Russia offers the unique example of a leading centrally planned economy swiftly transforming itself into a market-oriented economy. We offer a comprehensive study of inequality and mobility patterns for Russia, using multiple rounds of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Surveys over the past two decades spanning this transition. We find rising income levels and decreasing inequality, with the latter being mostly caused by pro-poor growth rather than redistribution. The poorest tercile experienced a growth rate that was more than 10 times that of the richest tercile, leading to less long-term inequality than short-term inequality. We also find that switching from a part-time job to a full-time job, from a lower-skill job to a higher-skill job, or staying in the formal sector is statistically significantly associated with reduced downward mobility and increased income growth. However, a similar transition from the private sector to the public sector is negatively associated with income growth. |
| Keywords: | welfare dynamics,poverty,inequality,pro-poor growth,panel data,household surveys,Russia |
| JEL: | C15 D31 I31 O10 O57 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:297&r=all |
| By: | Demidova, Olga; Kolyagina, Alena; Pastore, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper is devoted to the study of diversification and specialization influence on one of the main indicators of Russian labour market, the unemployment growth. The purpose of the work is to find out which effects dominate in the Russian regions, Marshallian or Jacobs, and whether this predominance is stable for different time intervals. The following hypotheses were empirically tested: 1) the dependence of the unemployment rate on the degree of concentration or diversification is non-monotonic due to possible overlapping effects of urbanization and localization; 2) the influence of the degree of concentration or diversification on the level of unemployment depends on the time period. To test these hypotheses nonparametric additive models with spatial effects were used. Both hypotheses found empirical confirmation. It was shown that in Russia, depending on the period, various effects dominated: in 2008-2010, and 2013-2016 Marshallian effects predominated, while in 2010-2013, Jacobs effects dominated. |
| Keywords: | concentration,diversification,unemployment,spatial effects,nonparametric models |
| JEL: | C14 C21 J64 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:302&r=all |
| By: | Nikolay Chichkanov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ian Miles (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Veronika Belousova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The development of service industries in emerging economies has been attracting more attention in recent years, but to date there have been few studies of knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) in these countries. (The main exception is the case of a specific sector – software and related Information Technology services, with most focus here being on India. KIBS as a whole have received little examination.) This paper aims to study how conditions for innovation influence innovation activities in KIBS in one of the largest emerging countries, Russia. The study draws on survey data from firms belonging to ten KIBS subsectors, based in major Russian cities in 2015. The results contrast with those generally reported in Western developed economies. In this particular emerging economy, firms experiencing negative market and knowledge conditions are actually more liable to undertake nontechnological innovations. We consider various explanations for this apparent anomaly. The institutional framework appears to be less essential for KIBS than has been earlier documented for manufacturing enterprises in Russia. Implications for innovation management and policy are outlined: both government and corporate, strategies here would benefit from more attention to these sectors |
| Keywords: | KIBS, conditions for innovation, emerging economies |
| JEL: | O30 O31 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:92sti2019&r=all |
| By: | Lili Di Puppo (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The paper contributes new perspectives to the study of post-communist reforms by highlighting the limits of the transition paradigm in the analysis of reform processes in the post-Soviet space. It examines Georgia’s police reform and argues that the more repressive aspects of the reform should not be viewed as “setbacks” on a transition path, but as integral to the goal of constructing a new Georgian state through the creation of symbolic divides between two different “Georgias”. This symbolic work of emphasising contrasts between different domains by casting light on and obscuring social phenomena is analysed through the lens of the “spectacle of policing” (Comaroffs 2004; Wacquant 2009). |
| Keywords: | police reform, transition paradigm, spectacle of policing, creation of boundaries, Georgia, (in)visibility of corruption |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:85/soc/2019&r=all |
| By: | Olga N. Balaeva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrei A. Yakovlev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Yuliya D. Rodionova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Daniil M. Esaulov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Public procurement cost evaluation is important both for procurement optimization at the company level and for evaluating the public procurement regulatory system. This paper presents a survey-based methodological approach to public procurement cost evaluation at the macro level. Our approach is based on a methodology for assessing the efficiency of public procurement developed by PwC for the European Union. The PwC methodology was adapted to developing and transitional economies and piloted on Russian data. Average costs of each type of procurement procedure implemented in 2016 were evaluated. A regression analysis of factors impacting public procurement cost evaluation revealed considerable differences between respondents who have and do not have experience with complex procurement procedures. Although the average overall costs of public procurements in Russia amounted to about 1% of the total value of concluded contracts, the figure stands at 6.6–8.1% for small purchases. This exceeds the economy from price decreases and calls for a need to simplify regulation of such procurements. |
| Keywords: | public procurement; public procurement costs; public customers; suppliers. |
| JEL: | H57 D23 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:20/psp/2018&r=all |
| By: | Tsaplin Oleg (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (North-West Institute of Management of RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The article reviews the author’s solution for automation of student dormitory activities accounting and the results of its implementation in the North-West Institute of Management – branch of the FSBEI HE "The Russian Presidential Academy of the National Economy and Public Administration", Saint Petersburg. |
| Keywords: | industry solution, automated system, information technology, information processing, accounting system, dormitory management, educational institution management |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:011903&r=all |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Akpan, Uduak; Isihak, Salisu |
| Abstract: | This study employs panel analysis to examine the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) and Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey (MINT) using data for eleven years i.e. 2001 – 2011. First, it uses pooled time-series cross sectional analysis to estimate the model on determinants of FDI for three samples: BRICS only, MINT only, and BRICS and MINT combined; then, fixed effects model is also employed to estimate the model for BRICS and MINT combined. The results show that market size, infrastructure availability, and trade openness play the most significant roles in attracting FDI to BRICS and MINT while the roles of availability of natural resources and institutional quality are insignificant. Given that FDI inflow to a country has the potential of being mutually beneficial to the investing entity and host government, the challenge is on how BRICS and MINT can sustain the level of FDI inflow and ensure it results in economic growth and socio-economic transformation. To sustain the level of FDI inflow, governments of BRICS and MINT need to ensure that their countries remain attractive for investment. BRICS and MINT also need to ensure that their economies absorb substantial skills and technology spillovers from FDI inflow to promote sustainable long-term economic growth by investing more in their human capital. The study is significant because it contributes to literature on determinants of FDI by extending the scope of previous studies which often focus only on BRICS. |
| Keywords: | FDI, determinants, fast-growing economies, BRICS, MINT |
| JEL: | C52 F21 F23 O40 P37 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:91529&r=all |
| By: | Andrew K. Rose |
| Abstract: | A country’s exports rise when its leadership is approved by other countries. I show this using a standard gravity model of bilateral exports, a panel of data from 2006 through 2017, and an annual Gallup survey which asks people in up to 157 countries whether they approve of the job performance of the leadership of China, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Holding other things constant, a country’s exports are higher if its leadership is approved by the importer; ‘soft power’ promotes exports. The soft power effect is statistically and economically significant; a one percent increase in leadership approval raises exports by around two-thirds of a percent. This effect is reasonably robust, and different measures of soft power deliver similar results. I conservatively estimate that the >20 percentage point decline in foreign approval of American leadership between 2016 (the final year of Obama’s presidency) and 2017 (Trump’s first year) lowered American exports by at least $3 billion. |
| JEL: | F14 F59 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25439&r=all |
| By: | Rostislav Turovsky (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Marina Sukhova (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This research analyzes the differences between municipal elections in large and medium-sized Russian cities (more than 100,000 citizens) and federal elections to representative bodies for the period from 2003 to 2018. The empirical evidence includes 210 municipal electoral campaigns in 119 cities and 4 federal legislative campaigns for comparison. We examine these differences using the notion of the party system nationalization, which is measured by comparing turnout and voting for political parties at different territorial levels in the same cities, and by party system inflation (with the use of the effective number of parties – an index that allows a comparison of election competitiveness at different administrative levels). Most of the cases are midterm municipal elections held separately between the federal campaigns. However, we draw special attention to the differences when federal and municipal campaigns overlap. The results showed some progress in the process of the nationalization of the Russian party system which is indicated by the rapprochement of the degree of competitiveness in the federal and municipal elections and, later, by the likeliness of electoral preferences at different territorial levels. |
| Keywords: | federal elections, municipal campaigns, electoral support, turnout, competitiveness, the effective number of parties, party system nationalization, party system inflation. |
| JEL: | D72 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:64/ps/2018&r=all |
| By: | Artem Kochnev |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates how war and the war-related government policies affected economic activity of the separatist-controlled areas of Ukraine. The paper applies a quasi-experimental study design to estimate the impact of two events on the separatist-controlled areas the introduction of the separatist control and the introduction of the second round of the trade ban, which was imposed by the government of Ukraine on the separatist-controlled territories in 2017. Using a difference-in-difference estimation procedure that controls for the yearly and monthly effects, individual fixed effects, and the region-specific time shocks, the study finds that the separatist rule decreased the economic activity by 38% in the Donetsk region and 51% in the Luhansk region according to the preferred specifications. At the same time, the trade ban of the year 2017 against the major industrial enterprises of the separatist-controlled areas decreased luminosity by 20%. The paper argues that the trade disruptions due to the war actions were nested within the negative effect of the separatist rule and accounted for half of it. |
| Keywords: | costs of war, satellite data, trade, Ukraine crisis, political economy |
| JEL: | D74 E01 E20 F51 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:161&r=all |
| By: | Victor Rudakov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ilya Prakhov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | For several years, the Russian system of higher education had been undergoing massive transformations related to the enhancement of the global competitiveness of the national academic sector. The introduction of research-oriented universities and the transition to incentive contracts are the main elements of the reform. In this article we show how these institutional changes contribute to reducing the problem of gender inequality in academia. Based on comprehensive data from a Russian faculty survey (MEMO), it is found that there are considerable differences in gender wage inequality by university status: female faculty earn significantly lower salaries in ordinary universities, but there are no gender differences in pay in research-oriented universities, which are most actively transitioning to incentive remuneration schemes. Female faculty experience vertical segregation: women are less likely to achieve senior positions in university hierarchies. We also found indirect evidence of women’s self-selection for lower-paid positions: female faculty are less likely to achieve advanced degrees and to have research publications. Overall, the study shows that male faculty earns 8.7% higher salaries than female counterparts after controlling for all observable characteristics. Oaxaca decomposition showed that 53% of the gender wage gap can be explained by observable characteristics, while the rest can be attributed to discrimination, self-selection or unobservable factors. In the absence of discrimination, male faculty should earn 10% higher salaries, but due to discrimination and unobservable factors, male faculty, on average, earn 18.7% more. However, the gender wage gap in academia is considerably below the national average: women earned on average around 80% of male salaries in academic sector, while in the whole Russian economy women earned around 70% of men’s wages |
| Keywords: | gender wage gap, economics of gender, gender inequalities in academia, faculty pay, incentive contract, project “5-100” |
| JEL: | J16 J30 J31 J41 J78 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:208/ec/2019&r=all |
| By: | Bruni, Michele |
| Abstract: | A brief analysis of the different demographic tendencies that will affect the 65 countries of the Belt and Road Initiative allows to point out that they are largely spread along the path of the demographic transition so that in some working age population will dramatically decline, in others will dramatically increase. The implication is that the first group of countries (epitomized by China, Russia, Thailand, but also by Singapore) will be affected by a structural shortage of labour, the second (well represented by India, but also by Pakistan, Egypt and Philippines) by a structural excess of labour. Therefore, for the countries of the first group immigration will not be an option but a necessity, while for the countries of the second group emigration will not be an option but a necessity. The situation suggests that it would be in the interest of all BRI countries to design, develop and implement a policy framework that would allow them to jointly manage migration flows in the amount and with the educational stricture coherent with their needs. However, such a process is extremely difficult and complex and to succeed needs to be properly directed and orchestrated. The paper argues that given its size, the dimension of its need of foreign labour, and its role in the Belt and Road Initiative it is China that should take the lead of a rational approach that falls well inside the strategies of the Initiative. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road Initiative,China,migration,labour market,demographic transition,demographic polarization |
| JEL: | J11 J2 J61 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:300&r=all |
| By: | Baydalinova, Aynur; Sandybayeva, Balzhan; Stukach, Victor |
| Abstract: | Ensuring the financial security of the state is an important task for the country. This task becomes a priority before the danger of the financial crisis. This is especially true when the state is in the zone of financial crisis, because this situation a priori means a loss of financial security. |
| Keywords: | financial security, public debt, financial crisis, economic security, external debt, budget deficit, gross domestic product. |
| JEL: | G17 G2 G28 G3 |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:73873&r=all |
| By: | Liudmila Kitrar (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Tamara Lipkind (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Georgy Ostapkovich (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The paper explores the information content of surveys of the Russian services sector using the surveys’ results since 2012Q1 to 2018Q4. To summarise entrepreneurial opinions in a one-dimensional index the indicators of confidence and business climate are calculated. To examine the reaction of GDP to impulses in the business climate indicator and to forecast GDP growth by the end of 2019, the Vector Autoregression Model was used. The results of services surveys provide reliable information on the economic sentiment that is essential to measure recession and recovery development of the sector. Since 2013, the survey’s results demonstrate a stable five-year trend of ‘pessimism accumulation’ in the indicators dynamics. The slight increase in entrepreneurial optimism in 2016-2018 did not result in moving confidence to a positive zone. The business climate indicator (BCI) performs better than the traditional confidence indicator in terms of synchronous correlations with GDP growth. A longer observation period needs to draw conclusions about the BCI cyclic properties; however, it can be used now to analyze the development of the Russian services sector. |
| Keywords: | services surveys, confidence indicator, business climate indicator, Russia |
| JEL: | C81 C82 L89 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:93sti2019&r=all |
| By: | Laaser, Claus-Friedrich; Schrader, Klaus |
| Abstract: | For Germany and the other large BSR neighbors Poland an the Russian Federation Baltic Sea trade is of minor importance. The BSR is only one integration area — i.e. destination of its exports and origin of its imports — among a lot of peers being located in other directions of the compass rose. Moreover the BSR in a narrower sense is characterized by a high degree of economic heterogeneity — a North-South downward gradient of wealth can be observed. This wealth gap at the Baltic Sea implies diverging economic interests. |
| Keywords: | Ostseeraum,Wirtschaftsintegration |
| JEL: | F15 F02 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:191526&r=all |
| By: | Paulone, Sara (University of Siena); Ivlevs, Artjoms (University of the West of England, Bristol) |
| Abstract: | Despite the growth of alcohol consumption and international migration in many developing countries, the links between the two remain underexplored. We study the relationship between emigration of household members, receiving remittances (migrant monetary transfers), and alcohol consumption of migrant household members staying behind in Kyrgyzstan, a poor post-socialist country that has recently witnessed both large-scale emigration and a rise in alcohol-related health problems. Using a large longitudinal survey, we find that, among the ethnic majority (Kyrgyz), an increase in migrant remittances is associated with a higher likelihood and frequency of consuming alcohol, as well as an increase in the consumption of beer. Among ethnic Russians, the emigration of family members who do not send remittances back home is associated with an increased likelihood and frequency of alcohol consumption. We discuss possible mechanisms through which emigration and remittances may affect the alcohol consumption of those staying behind, including the relaxation of budget constraints and psychological distress. Overall, our findings suggest that the emigration of household members contribute to a greater alcohol consumption among those staying behind, and highlight the role of remittances and cultural background in understanding the nuances in this relationship. |
| Keywords: | emigration, alcoholism, Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia, monetary remittances, social remittances |
| JEL: | F22 F24 J61 I12 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12075&r=all |