nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒01‒28
eleven papers chosen by

  1. Herding behaviour in an emerging market: Evidence from the Moscow Exchange By Indars, Edgars Rihards; Savin, Aliaksei; Lublóy, Ágnes
  2. Transmission of foreign monetary shocks to a small open economy under structural instability: the case of Russia By Anna Kruglova; Konstantin Styrin; Yulia Ushakova
  3. Development and Implementation of the Solution on the platform 1C Enterprise 8.3 “The Dormitories Management” By Maksimova, Polina (Максимова, Полина); Selivanov, Evgeny (Селиванов, Евгений); Tsaplin, Oleg (Цаплин, Олег)
  4. Main forms of interaction between Russian regions and ASEAN countries By Pakhomov, Alexander (Пахомов, Александр)
  5. Untapped Potential: Intra-Regional Trade in the Western Balkans By Plamen Kaloyanchev; Ivan Kusen; Alexandros Mouzakitis
  6. The Asian integration agenda of the Eurasian Economic Union By Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз)
  7. Halving Poverty in Russia by 2024 By World Bank Group
  8. Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus By Karel Musil; Mikhail Pranovich; Jan Vlcek
  9. Forecasting inflation in Russia by Dynamic Model Averaging By Konstantin Styrin
  10. Uranium mines, death camps : the final transformation of the USSR into a giant death complex By Florent Pirot
  11. Project of automated system for educational institution performance monitoring By Zykov, Alexander (Зыков, Александр); Petrov, Vladimir (Петров, Владимир)

  1. By: Indars, Edgars Rihards; Savin, Aliaksei; Lublóy, Ágnes
    Abstract: This study investigates the extent to which herding towards the market consensus for Russian stocks is driven by fundamental and non-fundamental factors. We find evidence that investors on the Moscow Exchange herd without any reference to fundamentals during unanticipated financial crises coupled with high uncertainty, in falling markets, and during days with extreme upward oil price movements. The results indicate that companies with less transparent information environment, proxied by company size and the number of analysts following the company, are more prone to herding driven by non-fundamental factors. This herding behaviour temporarily impedes the incorporation of all relevant fundamental information into stock prices and diverts the market from its efficient state. In contrast, in periods of high liquidity and on days of international sanction announcements during the Ukrainian crisis herding behaviour is merely driven by fundamentals. In Russia, macroeconomic news releases induce both information-related herding and herding without any reference to fundamentals. These results suggest that motives of investors herding behaviour vary under specific market conditions and share characteristics.
    Keywords: herding, emerging markets, fundamental information
    JEL: G01 G14
    Date: 2019–01–14
  2. By: Anna Kruglova (University of Washington (Bank of Russia at the time of participating in this study)); Konstantin Styrin (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Yulia Ushakova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy shocks in the U.S. to a small open economy by estimating their effect on lending based on bank-level balance sheet data of Russian banks for 2000-2018. To identify the causal effect at the bank level we exploit heterogeneity across banks in terms of their reliance on cross-border funding. We find evidence that the effect of U.S. monetary policy shocks has been statistically and economically significant. Surprisingly, the magnitude of the effect remained roughly the same even after the monetary policy in Russia transited from exchange rate to inflation targeting. This finding suggests that a free floating regime does not attenuate the effect of foreign monetary policy shocks on domestic lending.
    Keywords: monetary policy, international spillovers, cross-border transmission
    JEL: E52 F34 G21
    Date: 2018–12
  3. By: Maksimova, Polina (Максимова, Полина) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (North-West Institute of Management of RANEPA)); Selivanov, Evgeny (Селиванов, Евгений) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (North-West Institute of Management of RANEPA)); Tsaplin, Oleg (Цаплин, Олег) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (North-West Institute of Management of RANEPA))
    Abstract: The article considers the authors’ solution of automation of student dormitory life ac¬counting and the results of its implementation in the North-West Institute of Manage¬ment — branch of the “The Russian Presidential Academy of the National Economy and Public Administration”.
    Keywords: industry solution, automated system, information technology, information processing, accounting system, dormitory management, management of educa¬tional organization
    Date: 2018–12
  4. By: Pakhomov, Alexander (Пахомов, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The article examines main directions of interregional cooperation in economic and social fields between the Russian federal subjects and ASEAN states. This cooperation has a growing trend and positive impact on the development of Russian federal subjects’ foreign economic activity and on the humanitarian sphere.
    Keywords: subjects of Federation, ASEAN States, international cooperation, foreign economic complex, social sphere.
    Date: 2018–12
  5. By: Plamen Kaloyanchev; Ivan Kusen; Alexandros Mouzakitis
    Abstract: Strengthening regional economic integration has been set as a priority by the leaders in the Western Balkans. In this context, the paper examines merchandise trade patterns in the region and tries to identify the main drivers of and obstacles to intra-regional trade. Although intra-regional trade comes second in importance, after trade with the EU, it underperformed and was in a relative decline in the last decade. The structure of intra-regional trade has been rather stable and remained concentrated in goods with low value added. The trade of the region with Russia, China and Turkey is less pronounced and is systematically skewed towards imports from them. The results of a gravity model of trade show that intra-regional trade has been positively driven by the level of economic activity and to some degree by cultural factors, like language similarity, while non-tariff barriers significantly reduce trade exchanges between the countries in the region. Contrary to expectations, geographical proximity did not come out as a statistically significant factor impacting trade dynamics in the examined period. Nonetheless, the poor connectivity in the region, attested by a number of indicators and other studies, is a major obstacle to economic development. Therefore, recent initiatives to support regional economic development by reducing non-tariff barriers and improving regional transport corridors seem to be well-placed.
    JEL: F14
    Date: 2018–04
  6. By: Bagdasaryan, Kniaz (Багдасарян, Княз) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The paper considers prospective directions of integration cooperation of the EAEU with the countries and groupings of Asia. The aim of the study is to determine the possibilities and limitations of the common foreign economic policy of the Eurasian Economic Union in this area.
    Keywords: integration, Eurasian Economic Union, preferential agreement, free trade area, trade in services
    Date: 2018–12
  7. By: World Bank Group
    Keywords: Poverty Reduction - Poverty Assessment Poverty Reduction - Poverty Reduction Strategies Poverty Reduction - Services & Transfers to Poor Social Protections and Labor - Safety Nets and Transfers Social Protections and Labor - Social Protections & Assistance
    Date: 2018–09
  8. By: Karel Musil; Mikhail Pranovich; Jan Vlcek
    Abstract: Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of Berg, A., Karam, P. and D. Laxton (2006) is extended to capture specifics of Belarusian economy and macroeconomic policy. The modified model’s policy block reflects a monetary targeting regime and allows for transition from it to an interest-rate-based framework. Adding wages, directed lending and dollarization allow for studying implications of activist wage policy, state program lending, and dollarization for macroeconomic stability and the strength of the policy transmission mechanism.
    Keywords: Belarus;Dollarization;Europe;Monetary policy;Quarterly Projection Model, Nominal Wages, Fiscal Impulse, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Quantitative Policy Modeling
    Date: 2018–12–07
  9. By: Konstantin Styrin (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: In this study, I forecast CPI inflation in Russia by the method of Dynamic Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2010; Koop and Korobilis, 2012) pseudo out-of-sample on historical data. This method can be viewed as an extension of the Bayesian Model Averaging where the identity of a model that generates data and model parameters are allowed to change over time. The DMA is shown not to produce forecasts superior to simpler benchmarks even if a subset of individual predictors is pre-selected “with the benefit of hindsight” on the full sample. The two groups of predictors that feature the highest average values of the posterior inclusion probability are loans to non-financial firms and individuals along with actual and anticipated wages.
    Keywords: Bayesian model averaging, model uncertainty, econometric modeling, high-dimension model, inflation forecast.
    JEL: C5 C53 E37
    Date: 2018–12
  10. By: Florent Pirot (Chercheur indépendant)
    Abstract: This paper is to confirm with an actual giant case study the thesis that was elaborated by the reading of Machiavelli, Rousseau, Sismondi and explained using psychanalysis with the innate bisexuality of the human being and its massive repression 1 : the organization of the lie to the self and the need to impose it to others while exerting violence upon others as a way to form a bubble ; and how socialism (as defined by Mises to encompass both national-socialism and the other forms of it) is both the prime example of such a lie, mechanized and industrialized using the mass media, and the « helping hand » for individuals to contribute to the repression of non-idealtypic (non-heterosexual) forms of sexuality, without which it would not be popular. Slave labor was recommended by Rousseau and Sismondi as a way to fill up the needs of the economy of socialist regimes (the topic of the thesis being the political economy of republicanism). Giant death complexes are demonstrated to have happened not only in Nazi Germany but also in the Soviet Union and in other socialist countries, demonstrating finally Von Mises' thesis. The battle of Algiers seems to have given to the Soviet leaders the idea of a strict system of enforced disappearance of industrial size in which the uranium mines were the key element of destruction : death camps. The number of victims can be estimated to circa 27 millions over the whole period of activity of the mines.
    Date: 2018–12–20
  11. By: Zykov, Alexander (Зыков, Александр) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (North-West Institute of Management of RANEPA)); Petrov, Vladimir (Петров, Владимир) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (North-West Institute of Management of RANEPA))
    Abstract: The article deals with automation of performance monitoring in educational institutions using the 1C software products.
    Keywords: monitoring, automated system, performance monitoring indicator, information technology, information processing, registration system, efficiency of activities
    Date: 2018–12

General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.