nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2019‒01‒14
ten papers chosen by

  2. Exchange rate and oil price pass-through to inflation in BRICS countries: Evidence from the spillover index and rolling-sample analysis By Mehmet Balcilar; Usman Ojonugwa
  3. A Data Analysis Tool for the Corpus of Russian Poetry By Olga Lyashevskaya; Kristina Litvintseva; Ekaterina Vlasova; Eugenia Sechina
  4. Social & Economic Policies of Putin's Fourth Term and Implications for Korea By Park, Joungho; Min, Jiyoung; Kim, Chorong
  6. APPLYING PROBABILISTIC TAGGING TO RUSSIAN POETRY By Alexey Starchenko; Lev Kazakevich; Olga Lyashevskaya
  7. Multifractal cross-correlations between the World Oil and other Financial Markets in 2012-2017 By Marcin W\k{a}torek; Stanis{\l}aw Dro\.zd\.z; Pawe{\l} O\'swi\c{e}cimka; Marek Stanuszek
  9. Sortir du « resource curse » : où en-est la diversification de l’économie russe ? By Ahmadou Saïd Ba

  1. By: Marina G. Kolosnitsyna (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Natalia A. Khorkina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Marina V. Lopatina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Physical activity is considered today as a leading factor in health and well-being in developed countries. With decreasing levels of alcohol and tobacco consumption, widespread sedentary lifestyles have taken centre stage among the predictors of non-communicable diseases. That is why Russia, along with other countries, has adopted the “Physical activity strategy for the WHO European Region 2016–2025”. Young people are among the target groups of public policy promoting physical activity. This paper investigates physical activity among young people aged 15 to 24 years. The empirical study is based on a descriptive and econometric analysis of micro-data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS), 2000–2016. The research shows that 50% of young men and 65% of young women do not exercise on a regular basis. Both for men and for women, the probability of physical activity is positively related to their educational level, household income, and residence in capital cities. Negative relations were found between the probability of physical activity and smoking, status of married person, and employed and non-employed status. The results for alcohol consumption, body mass index and self-assessed health are inconclusive for this age group. The results confirm the necessity of better-targeted public policy motivating physical activity in youth. Overall, policy measures motivating young people to take part in physical activity will have a long-term effect. Habits developed in youth often persist into adulthood. The result will be a gain in the health and longevity of the Russian population.
    Keywords: physical activity; young people; healthy lifestyle; Russia.
    JEL: I31 I38
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University); Usman Ojonugwa (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the pass-through of exchange rate and oil price to inflation for BRICS countries through the analysis of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) spillover index and rolling-window. Using the monthly frequency data, our results provide the following novelties: (i) There is strong evidence of directional spillover in all the countries; (ii) the total spillover is low, with Brazil (India) having the highest (lowest). This suggests that a greater percent of shocks is explained by idiosyncratic shocks; (iii) the net spillover of oil price (output growth) is positive (negative) for all the countries, indicating that oil price (output growth) contributes to the forecast error variance decomposition of other variables more (less) than it receives from other variables. In addition, the net spillover of exchange rate is positive only for Russia and China while consumer price index is positive only for Brazil and China; (iv) the historical events and crises interrupt the extent of spillover in all the countries; (v) even though the spillover exhibits significant bursts, there is no clear-cut evidence of trends. Therefore, our findings have policy implications for the attainment of monetary policy objectives in these countries.
    Keywords: Exchange rate; Oil price; Pass-through; Inflation; Diebold-Yilmaz spillover index
    JEL: C32 C58 E31
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Olga Lyashevskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Kristina Litvintseva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ekaterina Vlasova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Eugenia Sechina (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: A data analysis tool of the Corpus of Russian Poetry (a part of the Russian National Corpus) is designed for quantitative research in various areas of versology and linguistics aspects of the poetic texts. The core part, a frequency database of the corpus, includes annotation at the level of texts, verses, words as well as patterns of words, letters, and stress. The tool allows a user to study certain properties (e. g. rhyming patterns, lexical co-occurrence) taken alone and in their interaction, both in the whole corpus and in subcorpora. Besides that, it facilitates the contrastive studies of two chosen subcorpora. The paper reports a few case studies demonstrating applicable descriptive and exploratory methods and potential for further research in the field of the digital literary studies
    Keywords: poetic corpora, quantitative linguistics, lexical markers, lexical diversity, rhyme, linguistic poetics, versology, Russian language, Russian National Corpus
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Park, Joungho (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Min, Jiyoung (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Kim, Chorong (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Coming into the fourth term of Putin's presidency, it is expected that the previous regional development policy, which focused on infrastructure construction, and the rest of the socio-economic policy platform will continue in a similar direction as his third term. The construction of housing and infrastructure for regional development is mentioned at the beginning of the List of Instructions for the Implementation of the President's Message to Federal Assembly, dated March 16, 2018, and the concepts, strategies and programs related to regional development are being developed in accordance with this List. Other policies are seemingly in line with the third term. Beginning from as early as 2016, the government has announced the need for new policies on healthcare and medicine, housing, education, environment, digital economy, and economic growth. The Korean government needs to consider all the abovementioned policies currently ongoing within Russia. The healthcare, medicine and education sectors are not included in the "nine bridges" cooperation plan proposed by the Korean government, but they are regarded as the most promising areas for cooperation between the two countries. The environment sector is seen as a particularly promising new cooperation area between Korea and Russia, and this cooperation will be expanded through projects such as joint research on environmental monitoring systems and sharing know-how on waste management. The regional development sector includes the railway, port, and Arctic route of the "Nine-Bridges" suggested by the Korean government. When considering the policy direction of Russia, the construction of housing and infrastructure will be a particularly promising area to strengthen cooperation between the two economies. In addition, both Korea and Russia emphasize the importance of policies to support the growth of SMEs, meaning it should be possible to seek new avenues of cooperation between SMEs in the two countries.
    Keywords: Putin; fourth term; Korea
    Date: 2018–07–06
  5. By: Zalizko, Vasyl; Talavyria, Mykola; Lymar, Valeriia; Baidala, Viktoriia
    Abstract: The paper is devoted to bioeconomic security on the European continent in the context of international innovation system creation. The aim of the paper is to study a new direction of bioeconomics - the formation of conditions for strengthening economic security the contextin to define the elements of national innovation system. We define the category "bioeconomic security" and main elements of the national innovation system: synergistic knowledge and innovation creating; shift to innovative advanced technologies; implementation of effective organizational and administrative solutions for creation of agro-biotechnology clusters; promotion of complex resource preservation and transition to renewable energy; implementation of large-scale research. To strengthen economic security of the European countries, it is necessary to organize a comprehensive monitoring of all necessary indicators (using the integrated index) and begin to form bioenergetic clusters. The calculated index bioeconomic security clearly shows that four different countries (Poland, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and the Netherlands) that have individual advantages will be able to create a positive synergetic effect if they join a single bioenergetic cluster. Thus, it can be argued that bioeconomic security on the European continent is possible only if all European innovation systems are integrated into one complex system, which will ensure a high probability of energy independence.
    Keywords: Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies
    Date: 2018–12–21
  6. By: Alexey Starchenko (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Lev Kazakevich (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Olga Lyashevskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The poetic texts pose a challenge to full morphological tagging and lemmatization since the authors seek to extend the vocabulary, employ morphologically and semantically deficient forms, go beyond standard syntactic templates, use non-projective constructions and non-standard word order, among other techniques of the creative language game. In this paper we evaluate a number of probabilistic taggers based on decision trees, CRF and neural network algorithms as well as one state-of-the-art dictionary-based tagger. The taggers were trained on prosaic texts and tested on three poetic samples of different complexity. Firstly, we discuss the method to compile the gold standard datasets for the Russian poetry. Secondly, we focus on the taggers’ performance in the identification of the part of speech tags and lemmas. These two annotation layers are key to compiling the corpus-based dictionaries, which we consider a long-term goal of our project
    Keywords: natural language processing, full morphology tagging, NLP evaluation, Russian language, Russian poetry
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Marcin W\k{a}torek; Stanis{\l}aw Dro\.zd\.z; Pawe{\l} O\'swi\c{e}cimka; Marek Stanuszek
    Abstract: Statistical and multiscaling characteristics of WTI Crude Oil prices expressed in US dollar in relation to the most traded currencies as well as to gold futures and to the E-mini S$\&$P500 futures prices on 5 min intra-day recordings in the period January 2012 - December 2017 are studied. It is shown that in most of the cases the tails of return distributions of the considered financial instruments follow the inverse cubic power law. The only exception is the Russian ruble for which the distribution tail is heavier and scales with the exponent close to 2. From the perspective of multiscaling the analysed time series reveal the multifractal organization with the left-sided asymmetry of the corresponding singularity spectra. Even more, all the considered financial instruments appear to be multifractally cross-correlated with oil, especially on the level of medium-size fluctuations, as the multifractal cross-correlation analysis carried out by means of the multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MFCCA) and detrended cross-correlation coefficient $\rho_q$ show. The degree of such cross-correlations is however varying among the financial instruments. The strongest ties to the oil characterize currencies of the oil extracting countries. Strength of this multifractal coupling appears to depend also on the oil market trend. In the analysed time period the level of cross-correlations systematically increases during the bear phase on the oil market and it saturates after the trend reversal in 1st half of 2016. The same methodology is also applied to identify possible causal relations between considered observables. Searching for some related asymmetry in the information flow mediating cross-correlations indicates that it was the oil price that led the Russian ruble over the time period here considered rather than vice versa.
    Date: 2018–12
  8. By: Ekaterina Pyltsyna (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study investigated the change of government spending multiplier when switching from managed exchange rate regime to the floating exchange rate regime for emerging countries. It was found that on-impact multiplier in floating exchange rate regime is smaller by 0.5 than the one in the managed exchange rate regime. In addition, it was found that the openness of the economy affects values of government spending multipliers. Also, for the first time, micro-founded government spending multiplier was estimated for Russia. The study was conducted with the use of panel SVAR and DSGE models.
    Keywords: fiscal multiplier, government expenditures, exchange rate regime change, panel SVAR, DSGE, emerging countries, Russia.
    JEL: E62 E63
    Date: 2018
  9. By: Ahmadou Saïd Ba (Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University)
    Abstract: Peu de discussions sur la politique économique de la Russie au cours de la dernière décennie ont omis de mentionner la nécessité pour le pays de modifier la composition des secteurs productif et commercial. Parfois, l'objectif de la politique économique a été appelé « diversification » et, à d'autres occasions, il a été appelé « modernisation ». Mais quelle que soit la terminologie utilisée, les décideurs politiques russes ont toujours souligné qu'un changement radical par rapport à une économie basée sur les ressources naturelles était un objectif politique central. Pendant la campagne présidentielle de 2012, l'ancien et futur président Vladimir Poutine avait réaffirmé l'engagement des autorités russes à stimuler les secteurs non marchands de l'économie, à améliorer le climat des affaires et à rendre l'économie plus attrayante pour l'investissement direct étranger. Dans le même temps, il avait concédé que, malgré des initiatives de réforme importantes depuis plusieurs années, aucun changement significatif n'était intervenu. Cette situation n'a pas beaucoup évolué depuis 2012, le pétrole et le gaz représentent maintenant plus de 60% des exportations totales de biens et la structure globale des exportations s'est quelque peu rétrécie depuis le milieu des années 90. Les recettes pétrolières et gazières contribuent environ à la moitié du budget fédéral. L'économie reste très énergivore, notamment en raison de la sous-évaluation persistante de la valeur intrinsèque de l'énergie. Et contrairement à d'autres grands marchés émergents, la Russie n'a pas réussi à maintenir un bon niveau d'apports de capitaux domestiques et d'IDE, pourtant nécessaires à son économie. Au contraire, rien qu'en 2011, les évasions de capitaux avaient totalisé plus de 80 milliards de dollars US. Ce rapport cherche à comprendre pourquoi davantage de progrès n'ont pas été réalisés, fondant son évaluation sur une analyse détaillée des obstacles potentiels à une diversification réussie en Russie. La première partie du rapport est consacrée à l'étude des fondamentaux de l'économie russe ainsi qu'à son degré de diversification. La deuxième partie traite de la stratégie russe de réduction de sa dépendance aux exportations de matières premières. La dernière partie est une analyse des freins à la pleine réalisation de cette stratégie et propose des voies d'amélioration.
    Keywords: Resource curse,Dutch disease,Russie,Diversification,Economie,Modernisation,Dépendance aux matières premières,Matières premières
    Date: 2018–03–14
  10. By: Marat Z. Kurbangaleev (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Victor A. Lapshin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Zinaida V. Seleznyova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine if the aggregate rating constructed as a consensus of individual credit ratings can be accurately predicted with publicly available non-rating information about company. Adopting approach from computational social choice we construct consensus of ratings assigned by seven credit rating agencies to Russian banks in national scale and compare it with several proxies based on publicly available characteristics of those banks. We measure how much aggregate (consensus) rating and proxies are agreed in terms of ordering banks by their credit quality and discriminatory power in predicting defaults over the one-year horizon. We show that aggregate (consensus) rating is comparable to financial-data-based econometric default model in term of discriminatory power, but as ordering the former have a fairly low agreement with the last. We also found that using models for predicting initial credit ratings allows for building a proxy that has practically high agreement with the original aggregate rating, but original aggregate rating outperforms proxy in terms of discriminatory power. It was also found that greater agreement between original aggregated rating and proxy can be achieved on the subsample of investment grade ratings.
    Keywords: credit rating agency, credit ratings, rating aggregation, consensus ordering, logit model
    JEL: B23 G21 G24
    Date: 2018

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