nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒12‒24
ten papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  3. Analysis of Russia's Investment Agreements and Proposals for Their Modification Based on OECD Standards By Levashenko, Antonina (Левашенко, Антонина); Ermokhin, Ivan (Ермохин, Иван)
  4. Impact of the fiscal manoeuvre on GDP growth: estimation of short-term effects using fiscal multipliers By Sergey Vlasov
  5. WAGE ADJUSTMENT POLICIES IN RUSSIAN FIRMS By Ksenia V. Rozhkova; Sergey Yu. Roshchin; Sergey A. Solntsev
  7. Government Transfers, Work and Wellbeing: Evidence from the Russian Old-Age Pension By Grogan, Louise; Summerfield, Fraser
  8. Reducing Tobacco Use Through Taxation in the Russian Federation By World Bank Group
  9. The Russian Federation - An Exploratory Assessment of Transport Connectivity By World Bank Group
  10. The Labeling Effect of a Child Benefits System: Evidence from Russia 1994-2015 By Grogan, Louise

  1. By: Anastasia B. Likhacheva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Hryhorii M. Kalachyhin (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: An idea of lagging Pivot, so that Russian Policy of Pivot to the East Asia cannot last successfully on a long-term basis keeping an extensive lag between political and economic dimensions of the Pivot, becomes widely spread in Russia and abroad. And one of the most inevitable and necessary conditions of bridging this gap together can be found among instruments of trade liberalization with FTAs ahead. Here we should shift our focus from Russian interests to Eurasian economic Union (EAEU) that has a privileged mandate on trade negotiations with third countries and blocs like ASEAN: Russia cannot sign any FTA on its own since 2015. However, this puzzle was relatively poorly studied both in Russia and abroad and this paper attempts to fill this gap. We briefly analyze the scope of trade between Russia and key Asian markets (which still remain mostly limited to North-East Asia) to define the most sensitive export markets for Russia, then we systematize existing barriers that could be potentially eliminated by international trade negotiations and compare them with existing international activity of the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC). Results of our study clearly demonstrate an objective demand for more intensive EAEU activity on trade liberalization in Asia with a particular focus on non-tariff barriers.
    Keywords: Pivot to Asia, political economy, geoeconomics, FTA, integration, non-tariff barriers, Russia, North-East Asia, EAEU
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Irina Busygina (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Mikhail Filippov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is the first and relatively successful attempt to establish strong multilateral institutions of post-Soviet regional integration. The EAEU has greater scope of supranationalism compared to all previous post-Soviet integration projects and the Union’s multilateral institutions are based on the formal recognition of equal status of all the members. However, such a union is unlikely to promote the Russian economic and political dominance in the region, at least compared to what would be attainable through bilateral deals. On contrary, the post-soviet countries got opportunities to act more independently from Russia. We argue that it was the Ukrainian crisis in spring 2014 and the need to promote the domestic image of Russia as “great power” that created incentives for Russian leadership to accept institutional compromises necessary to initiate the Eurasian Economic Union.
    Keywords: Domestic Legitimacy; Eurasian Economic Union; Incentives; Belarus; Kazakhstan; Russia; Bilateral Relations; Multi-lateral Relations; Sovereignty; Ukraine crisis.
    JEL: D74 F02 F15 P30 P48
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Levashenko, Antonina (Левашенко, Антонина) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ermokhin, Ivan (Ермохин, Иван) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The article presents an analysis of Russia's existing agreements on the protection of investments, as well as proposals for amending Russian Federation Government Decree No. 992 of 30 September 2016 "On the Conclusion of International Treaties of the Russian Federation on the Promotion and Protection of Investments".
    Keywords: OECD, investments, responsible business conduct, transparency, investment agreement, bilateral investment protection agreements
    Date: 2018–04
  4. By: Sergey Vlasov (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: The Note analyses fiscal multipliers in the Russian economy and estimates the im-pact of the fiscal manoeuvre, the start of which is planned for 2019, on GDP growth. Fiscal multipliers in the Russian economy proved to be rather low, in part due to “leakages” through imports and relatively low efficiency of budgetary funds. We estimate the multipli-er of total revenue of Russia’s budget at -0.75 and the multiplier of total spending at +0.28. Therefore, changes in the budget revenue produce a stronger effect on GDP growth com-pared with the effect from the comparable change in expenditures. However, compared to changes in expenditures, changes in revenue feed through to GDP growth more slowly. Our analysis of the components of total expenditure based on the Russian and inter-national experience suggests that in terms of the functional classification of expenditure, the biggest is the fiscal multiplier for economic spending, followed by military and social blocks. Spending on general state issues have a negative multiplier. The analysis of the economic classification of expenditure showed that the investment component has the highest multiplier. It exceeds more than twofold multipliers for other components. The estimation of the effects of the fiscal manoeuvre using fiscal multipliers gives grounds for expecting in the medium term additional 0.2-0.3 pp to GDP growth per year on average as a result of the manoeuvre. However, the actual effect may prove materially higher than the estimated one in case of efficient fund utilisation (e.g., a thorough selec-tion of investment projects) as well as rapid cost cutting coupled with labour productivity growth by VAT payers. This will raise the fiscal multiplier for spending and lower it for rev-enue. Additionally, fiscal multipliers demonstrate a short-term effect of the fiscal policy on GDP growth without assessing its impact on the potential growth, which should also be positive. The current situation in the economy bordering on the full utilisation of resources may serve as a constraining factor, thereby lowering the efficiency of their utilisation.
    Date: 2018–12
  5. By: Ksenia V. Rozhkova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sergey Yu. Roshchin (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sergey A. Solntsev (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: Wage adjustments for employees are a reaction mechanism to changing market conditions and form a significant part of pay policy. Though various attempts to explore wage levels and wage differentials have been made, wage adjustment policies remain an understudied topic. This paper analyses the determinants of wage adjustments based on data from Russian enterprises 2015–17. The analysis is based on detailed data from an employer survey which covers more than 5,000 firms in both the public and private sector. The study adopts probit models to identify the reasons which determine wage revisions, depending on internal employer characteristics and external labour market conditions. The results are in line with previous research on the topic (Bayo-Moriones et al., 2016) and suggest that both internal and external factors influence wage adjustments. A wage adjustment is a reflection of the ability to pay meaning that revisions are often made by successful firms with high employee turnover. Institutional frameworks, especially trade union activity, affects the firm’s decision to adjust wages despite the general opinion on the insignificance of unions in Russia. This study contributes to the limited literature by analysing the determinants of wage policies depending on the firm’s characteristics. This is the first study of its kind based on extensive Russian data.
    Keywords: Russia, wage adjustment, pay policy, pay settlement, trade union
    JEL: D22 J01 J31 J33 J51
    Date: 2018
  6. By: Maria Grabovskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ekaterina Gridneva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrian Vlakhov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study deals with the politeness strategies of speakers of Russian, focusing on verbal expression of politeness. After running a field survey in schools in mid-2018, we try to analyze specific verbal markers of expressing politeness quantitatively. Four such markers were selected for this study, namely greeting, leave-taking, expressing gratitude and apology. Quantitative analysis shows that there is a clear frequency pattern found in these markers’ use, indicating a relatively high degree of sociolinguistic variation. Possible causes of this effect are discussed, including cultural diversity and multilingual setting of the modern Russian school communicative domain
    Keywords: Russian, politeness, sociolinguistics, linguistic anthropology, greetings, leave-taking, gratitudes, apology
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Grogan, Louise (University of Guelph); Summerfield, Fraser (University of Aberdeen)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impacts of a large and anticipated government transfer, the Russian old-age pension, on labor supply, home production and subjective wellbeing. The discontinuity in eligibility at pension age is exploited for inference. The 2006-2011 Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey is employed. Causal impacts differ across the sexes. Women reduce market work and appear to increase home production. They report increased wellbeing. Men reduce labor supply without any apparent increase in wellbeing. Pension receipt does not impact household composition.
    Keywords: fuzzy regression discontinuity, subjective wellbeing, pensions, labor supply
    JEL: I31 J22 J26 Z13
    Date: 2018–11
  8. By: World Bank Group
    Keywords: Public Sector Development - Public Sector Economics Health, Nutrition and Population - Disease Control & Prevention Health, Nutrition and Population - Public Health Promotion Health, Nutrition and Population - Tobacco Use and Control Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Taxation & Subsidies
    Date: 2018–10
  9. By: World Bank Group
    Keywords: Transport - Transport Economics Policy & Planning Transport - Roads & Highways Transport - Railroads Rural Development - Rural Roads & Transport Transport - Airports and Air Services
    Date: 2017–06
  10. By: Grogan, Louise (University of Guelph)
    Abstract: Impacts of child benefits and earned incomes on child wellbeing are identified for Russia. To predict earnings, a counter-factual commodity price model is constructed using information on local industrial composition and the evolution of world prices during 1994-2015 for six key commodity exports. Discontinuity in benefits eligibility at age 16 is exploited to predict the probability of receipt. Child benefits are found not to be spent differently from earned incomes or to influence child health differentially. Benefits do not observably crowd out private transfers to households containing children. Earned incomes and child health appear to be little related.
    Keywords: labour supply, Russia, child wellbeing, commodities prices, child benefits, program evaluation
    JEL: H3 I12 O12 O5 R11
    Date: 2018–11

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