nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒11‒19
five papers chosen by

  1. The effects of trade policy on domestic dairy market: the case of Russian food import ban on regional cheese market integration in Russia By Jaghdani, T. Jamali; Tleubayev, A.; Gotz, L.; Svanidze, M.
  2. Nationalism, Populism, Realism and the Intensification of East Asia's Maritime Disputes By Graeme Auton
  3. The Decision of Eurasian Countries to Join an Economic Bloc: The Relationship between Economic Membership and Business in Eurasia By abe Harraf
  4. Vocational Training for Unemployed Youth in Latvia: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design By Bratti, Massimiliano; Ghirelli, Corinna; Havari, Enkelejda; Santangelo, Giulia
  5. Strong Growth Amid Increased Negative Risks By Amat Adarov; Vasily Astrov; Alexandra Bykova; Rumen Dobrinsky; Richard Grieveson; Julia Grübler; Doris Hanzl-Weiss; Peter Havlik; Philipp Heimberger; Mario Holzner; Gabor Hunya; Michael Landesmann; Sebastian Leitner; Isilda Mara; Olga Pindyuk; Leon Podkaminer; Sandor Richter; Hermine Vidovic

  1. By: Jaghdani, T. Jamali; Tleubayev, A.; Gotz, L.; Svanidze, M.
    Abstract: We study the effects of Russia s food import ban implemented in August of 2014 on the Russian dairy market based on the price transmission and price dispersion approach. Cheese is the only dairy product for which domestic production has significantly increased since the implementation of the import ban whereas cheese imports have strongly decreased. Results show that for most of the regional price pairs under study, cointegration of cheese prices between producing and consuming regions has substantially increased with the import ban. In 29 out of the 39 price pairs cointegration emerged after the implementation of the import ban. Furthermore, in 5 price pairs the degree of long term price transmission and speed of adjustment improved significantly during the import ban regime. Moreover, the dispersion of cheese prices between consuming metropoles and cheese producing regions has significantly increased. The export ban, reduction in import level of cheese and milk, and increase in agricultural price index has affected the dispersion significantly. We conclude that in spite of the observed reinforced integration of regional markets, the market efficiency in general has not increased necessarily by the boosted domestic cheese trade. Acknowledgement : This study was conducted within the STARLAP project, financially supported by the German Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) through the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE).
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2018–07
  2. By: Graeme Auton (University of Redlands)
    Abstract: The neo-realist paradigm in international relations scholarship holds that sovereign states are rational, unitary, value-maximizing actors capable of understanding and rank-ordering their tangible national interests while distinguishing between short- and long-term goals. In the neo-realist view, territorial conflicts, unless involving central security concerns, will be subordinated to larger foreign policy objectives. Neo-liberals, on the other hand, argue that the growth of trade and economic interdependence is conducive to cooperation. ?Trade dependency? on a state with which there is a territorial conflict will lead to sublimation, sidelining or delayed resolution of the dispute without the threat or use of force. This paper analyzes three of East Asia?s high-profile maritime disputes, those over the Southern Kurlies/Northern Territories (Russia and Japan), Dokdo/Takeshima (South Korea/Japan), and Diaoyu/Senkaku (China/Japan). The paper demonstrates that, to an increasing degree, nationalist and populist sentiment ? rather than neo-realist or neo-liberal calculation ? has been the prime mover in each of these conflicts. The four regional players ? China, Japan, South Korea and Russia ? have politically invested far more in these islands than an objective analysis would seem to warrant, leading to intensified diplomatic conflict, hampered cooperation, emotion-driven domestic populism, and the possibility of future military action. The paper rejects the reasoning of some recent scholarship on the resolution of maritime disputes. It argues that the increasing salience of populist nationalism as a force hampering the resolution of maritime conflict is part of a global trend in the second decade of the 21st century.
    Keywords: maritime conflict; conflict resolution; nationalism; populism; neo-realism; neo-liberalism; constructivism; social identity theory; Asia-Pacific
    JEL: D74 D81 H12
    Date: 2018–11
  3. By: abe Harraf (University of Northern Colorado)
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to examine the decision Eurasian countries face with joining an economic bloc or remaining independent. The two different economic blocs discussed throughout this study are the European Union (EU) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The former is an overall integration of countries, whereas the latter integrates countries through just the economies. Research and data evaluation revealed Eurasian countries face the greatest chance of economic success if they become members of the Eurasian Economic Union. It offers the countries certain advantages, such as trade freedoms, while reducing the political and social risks to other member states. Countries with similar economies and sanctions for free trade also reduce industry conflicts and obstacles for companies conducting business in Eurasia.
    Keywords: Eurasia(n), Industry, Economic Bloc(s), European Union, Eurasian Economic Union
    JEL: O57
    Date: 2018–07
  4. By: Bratti, Massimiliano (University of Milan); Ghirelli, Corinna (Bank of Spain); Havari, Enkelejda (European Commission, Joint Research Centre); Santangelo, Giulia (European Commission, Joint Research Centre)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of a vocational training programme on the labour market outcomes of unemployed youth in Latvia. The programme is part of the Youth Guarantee scheme for the period 2014-2020, the largest action launched by the European Union to reduce youth unemployment rate and to support young people aged between 15 and 29 who are not in education, employment or training (NEETs). To estimate the causal effect of participating in the programme on the employment outcomes, we exploit a rule that gives priority for participation to unemployed people under the age of 25 using a fuzzy Regression Discontinuity Design setup. The estimated effects of the programme on the probability of being employed and monthly income up to 3.5 years after registering in the programme are positive but not statistically significant, although we find a strong positive effect of the priority rule on programme participation. This is the first evidence on the impact of a programme within the current Youth Guarantee scheme in Europe and our findings are in line with those from the literature on the evaluation of active labour market policies targeting youth.
    Keywords: youth guarantee, Latvia, vocational training, employment, policy evaluation, administrative data, regression discontinuity design
    JEL: J01 J08 J18 J24
    Date: 2018–10
  5. By: Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Alexandra Bykova (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Rumen Dobrinsky (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Julia Grübler (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Doris Hanzl-Weiss (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Peter Havlik (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Philipp Heimberger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Hermine Vidovic (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: The outlook for growth in CESEE remains generally positive, but downside risks have increased significantly since our last forecast. The main areas of concern are the developing US-China trade war and the potential for a renewed outbreak of the eurozone crisis.
    Keywords: CESEE, economic forecast, Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, Western Balkans, new EU Member States, CIS, Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary, Turkey, convergence, business cycle, overheating, external risks, trade war, EU funds, private consumption, credit, investment, exports, FDI, labour markets, unemployment, employment, wage growth, unit labour costs, migration, inflation, savings rate, DCFTA, Belt and Road Initiative
    JEL: E20 E32 F15 F21 F22 F32 F51 G21 H60 J20 J30 J61 O47 O52 O57 P24 P27 P33 P52
    Date: 2018–11

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