nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒10‒15
seven papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Security of energy supply and gas diversification in Poland By Csaba Weiner
  2. Пољопривреда Краснодарске покрајине и АгроХолдинг Кубањ By Bukvić, Rajko
  3. Remittances and Emigration Intentions: Evidence from Armenia By Aleksandr Grigoryan; Knar Khachatryan
  5. Chronic Poverty in Kazakhstan By Alma Kudebayeva
  6. Persistence in the Russian Stock Market Volatility Indices By Caporale Guglielmo Maria; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Trilochan Tripathy
  7. Oil price shocks and stock return volatility: New evidence based on volatility impulse response analysis By Eraslan, Sercan; Ali, Faek Menla

  1. By: Csaba Weiner (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: Poland entered the twenty-first century with an unsustainable energy/electricity mix, strongly over-dependent on coal. This situation seems to be changing very slowly, while there are multiple factors that make it imperative for the issue to be urgently addressed. On the one hand, this paper aims to assess the security of the stationary fuel supply by applying the conventional three-dimensional approach, encompassing availability, affordability and sustainability. On the other, we plan to use our own scheme to analyse gas diversification (Weiner, 2017: 6), i.e. a fuel which, alongside coal, is a very sensitive issue linked to the security of the Polish electric power fuel supply. We demonstrate that the three-dimensional approach is also appropriate for addressing the issue of supply security in the case of a country with a securitized energy agenda based on fears of problems with the availability and affordability of Russian gas supplies. It also highlights Poland’s concern over foreign technological reliance regarding renewables production. We show how the energy perspective, the institutional context, as well as perceptions regarding threat, dependence and Russia influence choices made from among different security of supply dimensions. We find that though the role of coal will surely decrease, there is great uncertainty about Poland’s energy policy and security of supply because of deficiencies in infrastructure and the unknown future role of the particular fuels in the energy/electricity mix, also expected to include nuclear. We can observe that every energy policy step possible is being taken to maintain the role of coal, and Poland moves toward sustainability only as much and as soon as it is required by its EU membership. Not only does the coal industry capture Poland’s energy policy, but also geopolitical considerations cement reliance on coal, providing low energy import dependence. Regarding gas, we find that since the January 2009 Russian–Ukrainian gas crisis, Poland has taken action to diversify its gas supplies, and it has finally achieved results, but there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding Russian gas imports.
    Keywords: Poland, Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, energy security, security of supply, gas diversification, coal, gas, nuclear energy, renewables
    JEL: L71 L95 O13 P28 Q4
    Date: 2018–08
  2. By: Bukvić, Rajko
    Abstract: Serbian. У раду се анализира пољопривреда Краснодарске покрајине, једног од мањих, али економски развијенијих субјеката сложено уређене Руске Федерације (РФ). Најпре је дат географски и друштвеноекономски приказ Краснодарске покрајине. По величини територије и броју становника упоредив с мањим европским земљама, попут Аустрије, Чешке или Републике Ирске, односно Данске, Финске и Словачке, овај регион је нешто мањи и слабије насељен од Србије. Разноврсност рељефа, климатских услова и велика природна богатства чине повољне услове за његов економски и друштвени развој. Посебно су развијени агроиндустријски комплекс и туризам, што и представља знак распознавања региона не само у оквирима Русије, већ и ван њених граница. У производњи низа пољопривредних култура Краснодарска покрајина заузима водеће, или једно од водећих места у оквирима Руске Федерације. Дат је кратак приказ Агрохолдинга Кубањ, највећег и најзначајнијег пољопривредно-прехрамбеног предузећа у Покрајини и једног од највећих у РФ, чије је седиште у г. Уст-Лабинск, и који има активе у више од 20 агропредузећа у неколико рејона Краснодарске покрајине. Земљишни фонд АгроХолдинга чини 112 хиљада ха, број запослених је око 5 хиљада људи. Привредна сарадња Србије с Русијом у целини знатно заостаје за оном из времена СФРЈ и СССР, али ће у будућности свакако бити повећана, а у оквиру тога и сарадња с Краснодарском покрајином, која се неће заснивати само на трговинским односима. English. This article analyzes the agriculture of the Krasnodar Krai, one of the smallest but economicaly most developed subjects of complexly organized Russian Federation. At the beginning it was provided a geographic and socio-economic description of Krasnodar Krai. Its size and population are comparable to the ones of smaller European countries, such as Austria, Czech Republic, Republic of Ireland or Denmark, Finland and Slovakia. In comparison to Serbia, this region is somewhat smaller and less densely populated. Its landscape and climate diversity, as well as an abundance of natural resources make a good starting point for a further economic and social development of the region. The agro-industrial complex and tourism are especially developed in this region and are considered its strong points both within Russia and outside its borders. In the production of many agrarian products Krasnodar Krai is leader, or at the top in the Russian Federation. It is also given the short survey of the AgroHolding Kuban, greatest and most important agriculture and food enteprises in the Krasnodar Krai, and one of the greatest in Russia. The level of industrial cooperation between Serbia and Russia is considerably lower than in the times of SFRY and USSR. However, it will certainly increase in the future, leading to an intensification of cooperation with Krasnodar region which will not only be based on trade relations.
    Keywords: Краснодарска покрајина, агроиндустрија, туризам, развој, Агрохолдинг Кубањ, Krasnodar Krai, agro-industry, tourism, development, Agroholding Kuban
    JEL: Q10 Q13 R10 R11
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Aleksandr Grigoryan; Knar Khachatryan
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze the recent migration wave in Armenia, using household level representative data from 2011. We identify determinants of emigration intentions by estimating a bivariate probit model with endogenous remittances. The key finding is that remittances help potential migrants to ease the migration process, serving as a resource rather than as a contractual tool between migrants and non-migrants. Spatial factors dominate in the set of (community level) instruments driving remittances. When distinguishing the destination country for potential migrants, Post-Soviet versus Western countries (EU countries or USA), we find that the instruments identified for remittances are more relevant for individuals targeting the Post-Soviet area (mainly Russia). Nevertheless, remittances remain a significant resource for migrating to Western countries. In this case, we control for endogeneity of remittances using Lewbel’s (2012) methodology. Our findings suggest that the two pools of potential migrants differ crucially in the main set of skill characteristics: high-skilled potential migrants opt for Western countries (brain drain), while the low-skilled prefer Post-Soviet countries as a destination. In particular, English language knowledge and computer literacy increase the likelihood for migrating to Western countries, and individuals with those skills are less likely to migrate to Post-Soviet countries. Education is significant for the Post-Soviet model only, with a negative impact on migration intentions.
    Keywords: migration; remittances; intentions; development; households;
    JEL: F22 J11 O12
    Date: 2018–10
  4. By: Ilya Kuzminov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Irina Loginova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Elena Khabirova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper defines a stress scenario as a global or national business development leading to the scrapping of established trends as a result of one or several technological breakthroughs, which can combine with a number of events and factors unfavorable for the global or national economy. The paper presents an analysis of technological shifts in the global agricultural sector focused the impact of these development on the Russian economy. Special attention is paid to scenarios involving deviation from conventional trends, when the imbalance between production and consumption becomes particularly acute while the situation in global food markets changes quickly and significantly with serious consequences for the Russian economy. This remains dependent on developed countries, which are major suppliers of vital resources required for the Russian agricultural sector. Six stress scenarios for the Russian agricultural sector, if certain drivers are triggered, were developed. In contrast to conventional forecasts based on the trends formed in recent years, stress scenarios consider the disruption of such trends, which today are recognized by most experts as the most realistic
    Keywords: stress scenarios, wildcards, black swans, weak signals, technological shifts, agricultural sector, food markets, text-mining.
    JEL: O1 O3
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Alma Kudebayeva
    Abstract: Given the lack of longitudinal data for Central Asia, research on poverty has largely ignored the time dimension. This study uses panel data constructed from the rotating cross-sectional Kazakhstan Household Budget Survey for the 2001-2009 period. The panel data provides an opportunity to measure chronic poverty levels and poverty transitions for the first time in Kazakhstan. We find that, despite the rapid and substantial reduction in poverty in the country since the turn of the century, and depending on the measure of chronic poverty employed, as much as a quarter of the population has experienced persistent poverty. However, the majority of chronically poor experience interrupted poverty spells. We apply the multiple-spell hazard model analysis to shed light on factors that impact on poverty exit and re-entry. The results of these estimates confirm that families with children under age six are experiencing higher probability of entry into poverty and lower probability of exit from poverty. Policy interventions are needed to improve the situation by providing an affordable state child care system in Kazakhstan.
    Keywords: chronic poverty; longitudinal data; multiple-spell hazard model; Kazakhstan;
    JEL: I32 C23 C41
    Date: 2018–10
  6. By: Caporale Guglielmo Maria; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Trilochan Tripathy
    Abstract: This paper applies a fractional integration framework to analyse the stochastic behaviour of two Russian stock market volatility índices (namely the originally created RTSVX and the new RVI that has replaced it), using daily data over the period 2010-2018. The empirical findings are consistent and imply in all cases that the two series are mean-reverting, i.e. they are not highly persistent and the effects of shocks disappear over time. This is true regardless of whether the errors are assumed to follow a white noise or autocorrelated process, it is confirmed by the rolling window estimation, and it holds for both subsamples, before and after the detected break. On the whole, it seems that shocks do not have permanent effects on investor sentiment in the Russian stock market.
    Keywords: RTSVX, RVI, volatility, persistence, fractional integration, long memory
    JEL: C22 G12
    Date: 2018
  7. By: Eraslan, Sercan; Ali, Faek Menla
    Abstract: We use volatility impulse response analysis estimated from the bivariate GARCH-BEKK model to quantify the size and the persistence of different types of oil price shocks on stock return volatility and the covariance between oil price changes and stock returns for a wide range of net oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. We find that precautionary demand followed by aggregate demand-side shocks, compared to supply-side ones, have higher positive and persistent effects on the conditional variances of stock returns for all countries. Moreover, we show that precautionary demand shocks, unlike the other types of shocks, mostly affect the covariances between oil price changes and stock returns; their effects being negative for all countries except China, Norway and Russia, where they are positive.
    Keywords: Oil price shocks,Stock returns,Volatility impulse response analysis
    JEL: C32 Q43
    Date: 2018

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