nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒10‒08
eight papers chosen by

  1. Global changes in the geographical structure of trade in Central Asia: Real flows in the 1989-2016 period versus gravity model predictions By Gharleghi, Behrooz; Popov, Vladimir
  2. The Russian population’s social status defining on the RLMS-HSE polling By Sysoev, Nikita
  3. Eurasian Economic Integration: Impact Evaluation Using the Gravity Model and the Synthetic Control Methods By Amat Adarov
  4. Assessing the extent of contagion of sovereign credit risk among BRICS countries By Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo; Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla
  5. Effect of flooding on residential real estate market prices: the case of Pärnu city in Estonia By Kaia Kask; Ene Kolbre; Aivar Tomson; Ülleke Eerik
  6. Research Careers: Conceptual Frameworks And Actual Practices By Natalia A. Shmatko; Yurij L. Katchanov; Galina L. Volkova
  7. Republic of Azerbaijan By World Bank
  8. Do Foreign Capital and Financial Development affect Clean Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions? Evidence from BRICS and Next-11 Countries By Shahbaz, Muhammad; Destek, Mehmet; Polemis, Michael

  1. By: Gharleghi, Behrooz; Popov, Vladimir
    Abstract: In the 1980s, six former southern republics of the USSR (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan), like other former Soviet republics, traded very intensively both between themselves and with the other Soviet republics, but had a meagre volume of trade with the rest of the world. After the transition to the market, the deregulation of foreign trade, and the collapse of the USSR in the 1990s, trade between the former Soviet republics shrank dramatically and was only partially replaced by trade with other countries, mostly from Western Europe. In the 2000s and 2010s, the relative importance of trade with Western Europe has declined and the share of trade with China and other Asian countries has grown. This paper compares changes in the geographical structure of trade of both former Soviet republics (Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan) and Turkey, with the predictions of the gravity model. The gravity model suggests that trade between two countries is proportionate to their respective GDPs and is inversely related to the geographical distance between them.2 Turkey serves as a yardstick for comparison. For Turkey, changes in its geographical trade structure resulted from a rise in the proportion of trade with Asian countries and a decline in the proportion of trade with other regions in the world economy. In contrast, for the former Soviet republics there was an additional reason for changes in their geographical trade structure: the collapse of trade within the former USSR.
    Keywords: Central Asia, Gravity Model, Trade
    JEL: F14 F17
    Date: 2018–09–17
  2. By: Sysoev, Nikita
    Abstract: This study presents a starting point in examining the issue of poverty in Russia as related to social strata. Since the Soviet Union’s breakdown Russian Federation has undergone its own unique political, social, and economic transition process. So, to learn by experience all pros and cons of almost quarter of a century old Russian transition economy outcome very important is scholar's engaging in research to introduce stratums of the population in aspect of the economic inequalities. Mainly, the term «inequality» means that people have unequal access to scarce and valued resources in society which might be economic or political. Because, the stratification might refer to the hierarchical arrangement of people in a society both on economic and on sociologic points of view. Inequality and social classes became important analytical concepts for explaining and solving the problems of Russian society after the 1990s. In order to find the ways out from the existing problems first needed to define socioeconomic status and social class in Russia. But in the time of global economics new challenges appear and they set new standards for sustainable development and eradication of poverty
    Keywords: Individuals, household, households, economically active population, economically inactive population, social status, transformation economy, poverty, social stratum, income inequalities.
    JEL: A13 C91 H31 P36 Z13
    Date: 2016–11
  3. By: Amat Adarov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: The study examines the impact of Eurasian economic integration at aggregate and industry levels using the gravity model of trade and the synthetic control methods. The analysis finds that the trade creation effect associated with the establishment of the Eurasian Customs Union in 2010 and its further deepening, while initially exhibiting high significance, largely dissipated towards the year 2015. Overall, the net impact was overwhelmingly positive for Belarus, generally positive for Russia and mixed for Kazakhstan. Most gains are attributed to the exports of commodities (mineral products and metals), agri-food sector, and, notably, machinery and transportation sectors. The inception of the Eurasian bloc was also associated with trade diversion effects, consistent with the expectations for trade-diverting customs unions, yet the impact on imports from some countries and sectors outside the bloc, on the contrary, was positive.
    Keywords: Eurasian integration, economic integration, trade policy impact, synthetic counterfactual method, gravity model of trade
    JEL: F13 F14 F15
    Date: 2018–09
  4. By: Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo; Manguzvane, Mathias Mandla
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature of sovereign credit risk contagion by conducting a counterfactual analysis on credit risk spillovers among BRICS countries. The conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) methodology is used to this end. Moreover, the paper makes use of the generalised forecast error decomposition to assess the contribution of state variables in the CoVaR of each of the BRICS countries conditioned by China, the biggest economies of the BRICS. The findings of this paper show that credit risk distress in China affects the most all countries sovereign credit risk in the BRICS grouping. Moreover, the channel through which credit risk distress in China affect other BRICS country is not homogenous.
    Keywords: credit risk, spillover, CoVaR
    JEL: C58 F36 G01
    Date: 2018–09–15
  5. By: Kaia Kask; Ene Kolbre; Aivar Tomson; Ülleke Eerik
    Abstract: The changes in market price levels of residential real estate market may occur due to several reasons. Those reasons may have either positive or negative influence, causing either the rise or fall in the level of real estate market prices. Sometimes it may happen that the same real estate asset may be affected by several different factors at the same time, which normally, in ceteris paribus condition, have detrimental effect on the market price level, but bundled together, may cause a co-effect in a manner, where the overall influence on the direction of the level of real estate market price is difficult to identify.One of those hardly identifiable co-effects may occur, if to put together sharp changes in the real estate market conditions with the sharp and detrimental changes in the environmental conditions. Changes in real estate market conditions are measured mostly by the changes in macro- and microeconomic indices, such as changes in economic growth, inflation rate, general and bank loan interest rates and demographics, as well as certain specific physical and market features of the certain types of real estate assets. On the other hand, the possible detrimental environmental conditions might be evoked by different weather events, like heavy wind, causing a storm, hurricane, tornado, and tsunami, also snow, droughts, frosts, heavy rainfall, and lightning, but also by fire, flooding, earthquake, avalanches, tidal waves, and landslides. Usually, several of those mentioned environmental events occur also in a bundle, either at the same time or in a particular sequence in a certain time-frame. This study aims to explore both short- and long-term effects of one-time major flooding incident on residential real estate market prices in the city of Pärnu, in Estonia. The studied marine-coastal flooding event was induced by a heavy storm, caused by the hurricane called “Erwin/Gudrun” at the 9th of January, 2005. The authors offer their own holistic theoretical framework, elaborated further from Tobin and Newton (1986) theory, explaining the phenomenon of flooding on real estate market prices. In the empirical part, the authors seek for alternative solutions to mainstream quantitative methods in similar studies, like repeat sales and hedonic regression analysis, to find robust evidences for identifying the effect of flooding on residential real estate market prices in terms of a small sample analysis of flooded versus non-flooded area transactions data.
    Keywords: amenities; environmental hazard; flooding; market price; Residential Real Estate
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2018–01–01
  6. By: Natalia A. Shmatko (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Yurij L. Katchanov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Galina L. Volkova (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the existing approaches to the concept of scientific career, as well as career patterns of PhD holders. The authors consider the choice of alternative career options that do not involve a strict hierarchy or a clear understanding of where a person’s career path will take him. Taking into account the approaches developed earlier in the framework of the sociology of science, the sociology of employment and the theory of life cycles, as well as on the basis of the results of modern empirical research, including the results of the international project “Careers of Doctorate Holders (CDH)” (OECD, Eurostat, UNESCO Institute for Statistics), the authors propose a new model of academic career and identify the main factors, allowing to assess the success of a career. The model was tested on the data obtained during a survey among Russian researchers involving 828 respondents aged between 30 and 49 and employed by universities, research institutes, organizations of engineering services, industrial enterprises, medical centers and clinics. The analysis revealed 5 main factors determining the research career: recognition in the academic community; application of the scientific results in practice; implementation of research interests; formal criteria for successful employment (salary and level of position); mobility (including international). The results of the study confirmed the initial hypothesis that the factors affecting career success can be classified by their significance for the individual / for the professional community / for society as a whole
    Keywords: human capital, research and development, research career, occupational choice, mobility, research institutions, skills
    JEL: I23 I28 J24 O15 O30
    Date: 2018
  7. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Public Sector Development - State Owned Enterprise Reform Public Sector Development - Public Sector Administrative and Civil Service Reform Governance - National Governance Private Sector Development - Corporate Governance Private Sector Development - Corporate Governance and Corruption Private Sector Development - Corporate Social Responsibility
    Date: 2017–11
  8. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; Destek, Mehmet; Polemis, Michael
    Abstract: This study investigates the main interrelations generated by the impact of foreign capital along with financial development on clean energy consumption and environmental degradation proxied by the inclusion of CO2 emissions. In doing so, we used panel data techniques targeted at BRICS and Next-11 countries spanning the period 1992-2016. Our paper strongly accounts for the existence of cross-sectional dependence and non-stationarity usually ignored by the other empirical studies. In case of BRICS, the empirical findings reveal that economic growth increases clean energy consumption while financial development reduces it. On the contrary, foreign capital inflows do not appear to have a statistically significant effect on clean energy. We argue that, economic growth, foreign capital inflows and financial development increase CO2 emissions, while clean energy consumption reduces environmental degradation by mitigating carbon emissions in BRICS countries. In case of Next-11 countries, empirical findings indicate that economic growth and foreign capital have positive effect on clean energy consumption. However, economic growth and financial development increases CO2 emissions in N-11 countries.
    Keywords: Foreign Capital, Financial Development, Clean Energy, CO2 emissions, Panel Data
    JEL: G1 Q4 Q5
    Date: 2018–07–31

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