nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒10‒01
nine papers chosen by

  1. Les relations commerciales agroalimentaires de la Russie avec l’Union européenne, l’embargo russe et les productions animales By Chatellier, Vincent; Pouch, Thierry; Le Roy, Cécile; Mathieu, Quentin
  2. Start-ups in the field of social and economic development of the region: a cognitive model By Ludmila Orlova; Galina Gagarinskaya; Yuliya Gorbunova; Olga Kalmykova
  3. The Use of Business Expectations in the Short-Term Forecasting of Economic Activity in Ukrainian By Roman Lysenko; Nataliia Kolesnichenko
  4. The geopolitical impact of Nord Stream 2 By Balazs Sziklai; Laszlo A. Koczy; David Csercsik
  5. Specifics of strategic managerial decisions-making in Russian oil companies By Vera Plenkina; Irina Andronova; Elena Deberdieva; Olga Lenkova; Irina Osinovskaya
  6. Impact of labour migration on entrepreneurship ecosystem: case of Eurasian Economic Union By Georgi N. Todorov; Anna V. Kalinina; Anna I. Rybakova
  7. Quantifying the Structure of Food Demand in Russia Using Provincial-Level Panel Data on Food Consumption By Hovhannisyan, Vardges; Shanoyan, Aleksan
  8. How Well is the Russian Wheat Market Functioning? A Comparison with the Corn Market in the USA By Svanidze, Miranda; Goetz, Linde J.
  9. Le décentrage du monde: L’impact des émergents sur la gouvernance mondiale By Arnaud Zacharie; Sophie Wintgens

  1. By: Chatellier, Vincent; Pouch, Thierry; Le Roy, Cécile; Mathieu, Quentin
    Abstract: Russia has been for many years an important outlet for the European Union (EU) in the agri-food sector. Following the break-up of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991, Russian agriculture, which until then had been dominated by sovkhozes and kolkhozes, had suffered a drastic fall in domestic production, in particular in animal production. Over the past fifteen years, and due to a policy encouraging investment in agriculture, especially in agro-industrial complexes where the integration model prevails, agricultural production progressed rapidly, at least in certain sectors, including cereals, poultry meat and pork. This development of domestic supply and the diversification of supplier countries (including the United States, Brazil, etc.) had, even before the embargo imposed since August 2014, led to a substantial loss of European exports to Russia. Since the embargo was effective, Russia is no longer a privileged partner for European animal productions. Thanks to the growth of imports in several Asian countries, especially in China, several European animal sectors have nevertheless managed, despite the closure of the Russian market, to increase their exports. This paper deals, first of all, with the main stages of the Russian agricultural and trade policy, the development of agricultural production in this country, and the implementation of the embargo. Using customs statistics data (from BACI and COMEXT databases) over the period 2000 to 2016, it then discusses the evolution of trade flows following the implementation of the embargo, with particular emphasis on Russia's bilateral relations with the EU in four animal sectors: milk and milk products, beef and veal, poultry meat, and pork.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Ludmila Orlova (Samara State Technical University); Galina Gagarinskaya (Samara State Technical University); Yuliya Gorbunova (Samara State Technical University); Olga Kalmykova (Samara State Technical University)
    Abstract: The article considers the factors influencing regional development on the part of start-ups, shows a cognitive model of such impact, and gives an analysis of scenario modeling in the Samara Region. The research results are aimed at creating favorable conditions for ensuring the progressive development of a single region and the entire Russian economy. To implement the goal, studies were carried out in the form of an expert survey aimed at assessing the impact of start-ups on regional development. The study included methods of systemic analysis, economic statistics, methods of sociological expert survey, a method of statistical data analysis, a method of qualitative peer review, and a method of cognitive modeling. The article presents the results of scientific research aimed at identifying the mutual influence of the basic factors of regional development and start-ups as an important element of the socioeconomic system. The works of many scholars are devoted to the analysis and research of the problem of innovative entrepreneurship. They reveal the aspects of studying innovative entrepreneurship in the context of improving the effectiveness of innovative activity and motivating entrepreneurship. This study highlights the importance of start-ups for the formation and development of effective regional innovation systems and actualizes investigations related to identifying the main directions in the activities of the region's start-ups. A comparative analysis of the scenarios was carried out and the most effective of them were determined for the Samara Region. The presented research results can be transferred and reproduced in any constituent entity of the Russian Federation. The obtained cognitive models can be used as basic models to back up large administrative decision-making in the field of managing the regional infrastructure for supporting small and medium-sized businesses to improve its adaptability to changes in external and internal factors and to determine the trajectories of sustainable development. In addition, the obtained models can be applied in the field of fundamental research on the functioning and development of regional socioeconomic systems, as well as in applied research in modeling options for sustainable development of regional socioeconomic systems.
    Keywords: cognitive model,factors,start-ups,business,innovative entrepreneurship,social and economic development
    Date: 2018–06–29
  3. By: Roman Lysenko (National Bank of Ukraine); Nataliia Kolesnichenko (National Bank of Ukraine)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the predictive capability of business outlook survey findings in forecasting changes in Ukraine’s real GDP, and in its consumption and investment components. Survey findings have been generalized through the use of principal component analysis. The business outlook index compiled by the National Bank of Ukraine is used as an alternative measure. To forecast GDP and its components, we employ ARDL and VAR models, which factor in the estimated principal components, the business outlook index, and the business outlook survey findings for construction investment over the next 12 months. In estimating the predictive capability of the models, we use pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting. A comparison with actual data shows that annual GDP and consumption growth are best forecast in the current period by applying business outlook survey findings that have been generalized using a principal component analysis, and the first difference of the business outlook index.
    Keywords: business expectations, GDP, short-term forecasting
    JEL: E27 E58
    Date: 2018–06
  4. By: Balazs Sziklai (Game Theory Research Group Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Corvinus University of Budapest Department of Operations Research and Actuarial Sciences); Laszlo A. Koczy (Game Theory Research Group Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Keleti Faculty of Business and Management, Óbuda University, Budapest); David Csercsik (Pázmány Péter Catholic University, Budapest)
    Abstract: We investigate the geopolitical impact and the possible consequences of the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. We model the European gas network as a cooperative game between regions as players over the pipeline network, where LNG is also treated as a separate player. We focus on the change of influence of the players in three different scenarios. We investigate how the power of the agents shift when the Nord Stream pipeline is expanded, when the Ukrainian pipeline is shut down and finally when both of these happen. Our calculations show that when Nord Stream 2 is operational, Russia and Western Europe improve their position compared to the base scenario, while other suppliers, notably Norway, together with Central, Eastern and Southern Europe suffer losses, especially when the Ukrainian route is dismissed. The results highlight that both the supporters and adversaries of Nord Stream 2 are governed by self-interest and solidarity and trust, the values proclaimed by the EU and the Energy Union, remain but a slogan.
    Keywords: gas supply, pipeline network, Shapley value, cooperative games, Nord Stream
    JEL: C61 Q40
    Date: 2018–09
  5. By: Vera Plenkina (Tyumen Industrial University); Irina Andronova (LLC "LUKOIL-Engineering"); Elena Deberdieva (Tyumen Industrial University); Olga Lenkova (Tyumen Industrial University); Irina Osinovskaya (Tyumen Industrial University)
    Abstract: The article considers methodological tools for developing and adopting strategic management decisions at oil and gas companies. For this purpose, the authors set and successively solved the following tasks: the most significant features of management decisions were classified regarding the operation of large vertically integrated oil companies (VIOC); the study presents a model of the full cycle of strategic management at industrial enterprises; the authors propose an original algorithm for the development of strategic decisions at VIOC and review the existing general theoretical tools used for selecting strategic alternatives regarding their applicability at various levels of the company's management hierarchy; a mechanism for devising and taking strategic decisions has been developed on the example of the oil production department; the authors determined the significance of strategic managerial decisions that are currently transforming from traditionally functional into the corporate ones. The revealed positive dynamics in the costs of research and development (R&D), the increase in the number of applications for patents, and the findings of a survey conducted among top management of oil and gas companies have proven the importance of innovation and taking accurate managerial decisions on its implementation. In addition to this, the paper provides evidence that all oil and gas companies are currently using modeling as a key tool when making managerial decisions.
    Keywords: innovation,management,strategy,managerial decisions,oil companies
    Date: 2018–06–29
  6. By: Georgi N. Todorov (Varna Scientific Institute of the Eastern European Commonwealth); Anna V. Kalinina (Tyumen Industrial University); Anna I. Rybakova (Russian State Social University)
    Abstract: Labour migration is one of the most important socioeconomic development indicators. The problem of a steady decline in the working-age population size has changed a role of migration that has an active impact on the human potential development. With the help of an empirical example from the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), this research paper presents specifics of labour migration. A review of literary sources points out to an ambiguous impact of a number of factors on dynamics of migration flows, employment, and unemployment. Correlation-regression modelling of migration processes for the EEU in various configurations has resulted with the following. First, a revealed direct relationship between a natural growth (decline) in the population, a number of vacant jobs and the population migration indicator. Second, researchers have established an inverse dependence between GDP per capita, consumer price index, minimum wage, unemployment rate, and population migration indicator. Thirdly, they have shown that a direction of migrant flows depends on such factors, as GDP per capita, number of vacant jobs and minimum wage. Results of the analysis show that an increasing difference between an average wage in the region and across the EEU, and minimum standard of living leads to decreasing numbers of migrants from a particular region of the EEU. In the EEU, for the population main reasons for employment abroad include unemployment in rural areas, no regular income, and lower wages compared to neighbouring countries. The discussion explains an essence of contradictory consequences of the labour migration impact on a development of national economic systems in terms of the completed academic and empirical research. In this regard, it is reasonable to consider labour migration as a global economic phenomenon and this needs further research in terms of factors that influence it.
    Keywords: migration factors,entrepreneurship ecosystem,labour migration,Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), employment,labour remuneration,migration flows
    Date: 2018–06–29
  7. By: Hovhannisyan, Vardges; Shanoyan, Aleksan
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing
    Date: 2017–06–15
  8. By: Svanidze, Miranda; Goetz, Linde J.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Marketing, Productivity Analysis
    Date: 2017–06–15
  9. By: Arnaud Zacharie; Sophie Wintgens
    Abstract: Le décentrage du monde provoqué par la montée en puissance des pays émergents représente l’événement le plus marquant des relations internationales de ce début de XXIe siècle. La mondialisation a provoqué une redistribution internationale des richesses au profit de quelques pays émergents du Sud, et plus particulièrement de la Chine et des autres pays émergents d’Asie orientale, qui sont devenus les « ateliers du monde » dans le cadre du nouvel ordre industriel mondial. Parallèlement, les coalitions de pays émergents comme le groupe des BRICS (Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine et Afrique du Sud) contestent l’ordre économique mondial dominé par les pays occidentaux, alors que les Etats-Unis du président Trump privilégient la confrontation unilatérale et que l’Union européenne est de plus en plus divisée. Ces rivalités croissantes entre pays émergents et puissances occidentales rendent le système international de plus en plus fragmenté et instable. Elles remettent en cause l’équilibre sur lequel repose le système de gouvernance économique mondiale instauré après la Deuxième Guerre mondiale. Cet ouvrage a pour objectif d’analyser les ressorts de la montée en puissance des pays émergents, en vue de mesurer son impact sur la gouvernance économique mondiale et d’identifier les pistes pour l’adapter au monde en décentrage.
    Keywords: pays émergents; multipolarisme; gouvernance économique mondiale; évolution du système international
    Date: 2018–09

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