nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒09‒24
nine papers chosen by
Alexander Harin
Modern University for the Humanities

  1. Perspectives of solving the problems of regional development with the help of new internet technologies By Yulia V. Ragulina; Elena I. Semenova; Irina A. Zueva; Elena V. Kletskova; Elena N. Belkina
  2. Les relations commerciales agroalimentaires de la Russie avec l’Union européenne, l’embargo russe et les productions animales By Vincent Chatellier; Thierry Pouch; Cécile Le Roy; Quentin Mathieu
  3. From Russia to Eurasia : Specific Features of the “Russosphere” from the Perspective of Business Activities of Japanese Firms By Tokunaga, Masahiro; Suganuma, Keiko; Odagiri, Nami
  4. How well is the Russian wheat market functioning? A comparison with the corn market in the USA By Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde
  5. Firm Failure in Russia during Economic Crises and Growth : A Large Survival Analysis By Iwasaki, Ichiro; Kim, Byung-Yeon
  6. The Transmission of International Shocks to CIS Economies: A Global VAR Approach By Oleksandr Faryna; Heli Simola
  7. Agent Orange: Trump, Soft Power, and Exports By Rose, Andrew K
  8. Housing market in Estonia: does the ageing also matter? By Angelika Kallakmaa-Kapsta
  9. Пространственная интеграция региональных рынков Сибири By Gluschenko, Konstantin

  1. By: Yulia V. Ragulina (Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution "Federal Research Center of Agrarian Economy and Social Development of Rural Areas – All Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economics"); Elena I. Semenova (Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution "Federal Research Center of Agrarian Economy and Social Development of Rural Areas – All Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economics"); Irina A. Zueva (Moscow Witte University); Elena V. Kletskova (Altai State University); Elena N. Belkina (Kuban State Agrarian University)
    Abstract: The purpose of the work is to determine the key problems of regional development in modern Russia and to substantiate the perspectives and model the process of their solving with the help of new Internet technologies. For full coverage of the problems of regional development in modern Russia, they are analyzed from the positions of public perception and level of dynamics of the statistical data that characterize these problems. At that, the methods of logical and statistical analysis are used. The information and analytical basis of the research includes the materials of the All-Russian Public Opinion Research Center, Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, and independence expert and analytical organization RIA Ranking for 2014-2017. As a result, the authors substantiate that implementation of new Internet technologies is a perspective means of solving the problems of regional development in modern Russia. These problems concern optimality of interaction of non-government economic subjects (society and entrepreneurship) between each other, which leads to low business activity, complexity of employment, and low income, and non-optimality of interaction between non-government economic subjects and the state, which leads to inaccessibility and low quality of state services and public benefits, including healthcare, communal and housing sphere, infrastructure, etc. Implementation of new Internet technologies into entrepreneurship allows reducing its capital intensity, increasing business activity, simplifying the process of employment, and increasing accessibility (reduce cost) of goods and services for the population. Due to implementation of new Internet technologies into activities of state organizations, which provide state services and public benefits, their controllability and manageability by society is achieved – which stimulates increase of their quality and accessibility. A proprietary model of solving the problems of regional development in modern Russia with the help of new Internet technologies is developed.
    Keywords: sustainable entrepreneurship,modern Russia,problems of regional development,Internet technologies
    Date: 2018–06–29
  2. By: Vincent Chatellier; Thierry Pouch; Cécile Le Roy; Quentin Mathieu
    Abstract: [paper in French] Russia has been for many years an important outlet for the European Union (EU) in the agri-food sector. Following the break-up of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1991, Russian agriculture, which until then had been dominated by sovkhozes and kolkhozes, had suffered a drastic fall in domestic production, in particular in animal production. Over the past fifteen years, and due to a policy encouraging investment in agriculture, especially in agro-industrial complexes where the integration model prevails, agricultural production progressed rapidly, at least in certain sectors, including cereals, poultry meat and pork. This development of domestic supply and the diversification of supplier countries (including the United States, Brazil, etc.) had, even before the embargo imposed since August 2014, led to a substantial loss of European exports to Russia. Since the embargo was effective, Russia is no longer a privileged partner for European animal productions. Thanks to the growth of imports in several Asian countries, especially in China, several European animal sectors have nevertheless managed, despite the closure of the Russian market, to increase their exports. This paper deals, first of all, with the main stages of the Russian agricultural and trade policy, the development of agricultural production in this country, and the implementation of the embargo. Using customs statistics data (from BACI and COMEXT databases) over the period 2000 to 2016, it then discusses the evolution of trade flows following the implementation of the embargo, with particular emphasis on Russia's bilateral relations with the EU in four animal sectors: milk and milk products, beef and veal, poultry meat, and pork.
    Keywords: Russie, embargo, compétitivité, échanges commerciaux, productions animales
    JEL: Q13 Q17 F13 F14
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Tokunaga, Masahiro; Suganuma, Keiko; Odagiri, Nami
    Abstract: In this paper, we demonstrate the trends and prospects of Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) in European Emerging Markets (EEMs) against the background of the recent development of emerging markets and explore the specificities of the Russian market, the biggest EEM in terms of market size and inward FDI received. More specifically, we give an overview of foreign capital flows from Japan to major EEMs and describe the achievements and problems of Japanese investors as related to business with Russia. We find that the Russian market seems to be a lucrative option for Japanese firms, despite unfavorable investment conditions and limited institutional freedom afforded to outsiders, including a language barrier due to the wide usage of Russian in the business field. Although use of the Russian language is one of major business obstacles affecting foreign investors, making matters more challenging in the country, it nonetheless provides us with a common language as a hub of business operations in the former Soviet Union countries or “Russosphere,” where Russia has still economic leverage and maintains cultural domination
    Keywords: foreign direct investment (FDI), European Emerging Markets (EEMs), business language, Russia, Russosphere
    JEL: F2 P2 P3
    Date: 2018–06
  4. By: Svanidze, Miranda; Götz, Linde
    Abstract: Given Russia’s leading position in the world wheat trade, how well its grain markets function becomes very important question to evaluate the state of future global food security. We use a threshold vector error correction model to explicitly account for the influence of trade costs on price relationships in the grain markets of Russia and the USA. In addition, we study impact of market characteristics on regional wheat market integration. Empirical evaluation shows that distance between markets, interregional trade flows, export orientation, export tax and export ban all have a significant impact on the magnitude of wheat market integration.
    Keywords: Agribusiness
    Date: 2017–08–28
  5. By: Iwasaki, Ichiro; Kim, Byung-Yeon
    Abstract: In this paper, we trace the survival status of more than 110,000 Russian firms in the years of 2007–2015 and examine the determinants of firm survival across periods of economic crisis and growth. Applying the Cox proportional hazards model, we find that the effects of some variables regarded as key determinants of firm survival are not always robust across business cycles. Among the variables that constantly affect firm survival across business cycles and industries, concentration of ownership, the number of board directors and auditors, firm age, and business network are included. By contrast, the effects of some ownership-related variables on firm survival vary depending on the nature of economic recessions such as a global crisis and a local one. There is also evidence that an international audit firm increases the probability of firm survival; however, gaps in the quality between international audit firms and those from Russia decrease over time. These findings suggest that one should not make hasty generalizations regarding the determinants of firm survival by looking at a specific economic period or industry.
    Keywords: Firm failure, Economic crises and growth, Cox proportional hazards model, Russia
    JEL: D22 G01 G33 G34 P34
    Date: 2018–06
  6. By: Oleksandr Faryna (National Bank of Ukraine); Heli Simola (Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT, Bank of Finland)
    Abstract: This paper employs a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model to study the evolution of the response of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to foreign output and oil price shocks. During a two-decade observation period, cross-country trade and financial linkages experience notable changes. We find CIS countries highly sensitive to global and regional shocks, with that sensitivity increasing after the global financial crisis. CIS countries show strongest responses to output shocks originating in the US, Russia and within the region itself, but their sensitivity to euro area shocks also increases substantially. Despite growing trade relations with China, the responses of CIS countries to output shocks originating in China are still relatively moderate.
    Keywords: international shocks, cross-country spillovers, CIS, Global VAR
    JEL: C32 F42 F43 E32
    Date: 2018–09
  7. By: Rose, Andrew K
    Abstract: A country's exports rise when its leadership is approved by other countries. I show this using a standard gravity model of bilateral exports, a panel of data from 2006 through 2017, and an annual Gallup survey which asks people in up to 157 countries about whether they approve of the job performance of the leadership of China, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Holding other things constant, a country's exports are higher if its leadership is approved by the importer, since; 'soft power' promotes exports. The Gallup effect is statistically and economically significant; a one percent increase in leadership approval raises exports by around .66 percent. This effect is reasonably robust and different measures of soft power deliver similar results. I conservatively estimate that the >20 percentage point decline in foreign approval of American leadership between 2016 (Obama's last year) and 2017 (Trump's first year) lowered American exports by at least .2% or >$3 billion.
    Keywords: approval; data; empirical; Gallup; Gravity; international; leadership; panel; positive
    JEL: F14 F59
    Date: 2018–08
  8. By: Angelika Kallakmaa-Kapsta
    Abstract: Ten years after housing boom in Estonia the housing market has been restored. Comparing to 1997 the average notarized purchase-sale price has raised 2.3 times by 2016. It is again the question about the price level. One problem in housing market is concern about affordability issues, but there is also another aspect, that has not been paid enough attention. The proportion of older people is growing. According to the Statistics Estonia share of persons at pension age (65 years and older) has been grown from 12 % of population in early 90s to 19 % in 2017. People live increasingly longer and it is to be expected that the number and share of older people increases. The availability of comfort characteristics in the dwellings inhabited by households has improved significantly. During the lifetime the living space per person generally increases, but people may lose some of their functional abilities which may create a need for a different type of dwelling.This article seeks answers how to define the impact of an ageing population to the housing market in Estonia.
    Keywords: ageing; Estonia; Housing Market; Housing Policy
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2018–01–01
  9. By: Gluschenko, Konstantin
    Abstract: This paper analyzes integration of 13 regions constituting Siberia with all country’s regions. The criterion of market integration is the law of one price. The data analyzed are time series of the cost of the staples basket over 2001–2015. Pairs of regional markets are divided into four groups: perfectly integrated, conditionally integrated, not integrated but tending towards integration (converging), and neither integrated nor converging.
    Keywords: market integration; law of one price; price convergence; nonlinear trend; Russian regions
    JEL: C32 L81 P22 R15
    Date: 2018–09

This nep-cis issue is ©2018 by Alexander Harin. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.