nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒09‒17
thirteen papers chosen by

  2. Russian food embargo and the lost trade By Angela Cheptea; Carl Gaigné
  3. Crop Production Potentials In Russia And Ukraine – Intensification Versus Cropland Expansion By eppermann, Andre; Balkovič, Juraj; Bundle, Sophie; Havlík, Petr; Leclère, David; Lesiv, Myroslava; Schepaschenko, Dmitry
  4. EGYPT’S WHEAT TENDERS – A PUBLIC NOTICE BOARD FOR BLACK SEA GRAIN NOTATIONS? By Heigermoser, Maximilian; Götz, Linde; Svanidze, Miranda
  5. The Determinants of Faculty Pay in Russian Universities: Incentive Contracts By Ilya Prakhov; Victor Rudakov
  6. Value Chain Management in Agribusiness By GIULI KESHELASHVILI
  7. Measuring Geopolitical Risk By Matteo Iacoviello
  8. The Rise of the Comparative Approach in Russian Legal Scholarship as a Factor in the Modernization of Civil Legislation, from Svod Zakonov of 1833 to the Draft Civil Code of 1905 By Dmitry Poldnikov
  9. Measuring herding behavior in the Russian stock market By VICTORIA NIKULINA; Maxim Bouev
  10. Does Happiness Pay Revisited – New Evidence from the U.S.A. By Carol Graham; Diana Liu
  11. Russian wheat: the new reference for cash wheat worldwide By Still, Swithun
  12. Effect Of Public Subsidies On Productivity Of Crop Producing Farms In Ukraine – A Farm-level Difference-in-differences Analysis By Curtiss, Jarmila; Gagalyuk, Taras; Ostapchuk, Igor
  13. Technical efficiency in the Georgian hazelnut supply chain and policy recommendations By Shavgulidze, Rati; Zvyagintsev, Dmitry

  1. By: Gafarova, Gulmira; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: This study explores whether Kazakh and Russian wheat exporters use their privileges of being important players in the South Caucasus countries to exercise market power. We use a three-stage least squares (3SLS) estimation for systems of simultaneous equations and Zellner’s seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) thmethods for our residual demand elasticity (RDE) analysis. The results show that Kazakh exporters are able to exercise market power only in the Georgian wheat market, while Russian exporters are able to do so in both the Armenian and Georgian markets. Neither country is able to exercise market power in the Azerbaijani wheat market. Further, Kazakh and Russian wheat exporters constrain each other’s market powers in Azerbaijan and Georgia. Similarly, Ukrainian exporters are able to intervene to Kazakh and Russian exporters’ market powers in the Azerbaijani and Georgian wheat markets, but not in the Armenian market.
    Keywords: Industrial Organization
    Date: 2017–08–28
  2. By: Angela Cheptea; Carl Gaigné
    Abstract: We analyse the impact of the Russian food embargo on European and Russian trade patterns using a triple-difference estimation strategy. We quantify the effects on the value of trade, the trade price of products covered by the ban, and the new trade flows generated by the ban. Our results point to an average e 125 million loss in monthly EU28 exports to Russia due to the ban (with Lithuania, Poland, and Germany bearing the largest losses). However, only 45% of the drop in EU28 exports of banned products to Russia would be due to the ban. In addition, EU products banned from the Russian market were sold elsewhere at lower prices. The reorientation of EU exports to other markets translated into selling larger amounts to old trade partners, as well as in accessing new markets. EU member states were unevenly affected by the ban. Germany and Poland compensated their large losses on the Russian market by a strong increase in exports to other trade partners (mostly intra-EU), at the expense of other EU countries, such as France and Denmark.
    Keywords: international trade, Russian embargo, trade diversion
    JEL: F13 F14 F17
    Date: 2018
  3. By: eppermann, Andre; Balkovič, Juraj; Bundle, Sophie; Havlík, Petr; Leclère, David; Lesiv, Myroslava; Schepaschenko, Dmitry
    Abstract: Russia and Ukraine are countries with large untapped agricultural potentials, both in terms of abandoned agricultural land and low yields. In this study, we apply a global economic agricultural sector model to provide a comprehensive analysis of different scenarios, simulating the utilization of different crop production potentials in Russia and Ukraine and their impacts on a regional and global scale. Our results show that substantial potentials in crop production do exist and that large parts of the additional production would be exported to world markets. Production potentials due to intensification are higher than potentials due to re-cultivation of abandoned land.
    Keywords: International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2017–08–29
  4. By: Heigermoser, Maximilian; Götz, Linde; Svanidze, Miranda
    Abstract: Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, is the largest market for Black Sea wheat exports. Half of Egypt’s wheat imports are purchased by its government’s General Authority for Supply of Commodities (GASC), employing a tender system. Based on a unique data base of GASC tender prices, the price relationships between the GASC tender and Black Sea wheat exporters (Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Kazakhstan) and also France and the USA are investigated. Results of linear and threshold vector error correction models suggest that export prices in the Black Sea region continuously and rapidly adjust to GASC tender prices, while the GASC tender price only adjusts to the French export price. Obviously, the GASC tender price has the function of a wheat world market price in the Black Sea region. Also, the GASC tender system creates strong price competition between the Black Sea exporters and France. We trace this back to the fact that the GASC tender system enhances transparency about competitive prices of the Black Sea wheat market, where an effective price discovery mechanism is still missing.
    Date: 2018–09–01
  5. By: Ilya Prakhov (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Victor Rudakov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the design of current contractual incentive mechanisms in Russian universities depending on the type of higher education institution after recent significant contractual reforms in the national academic sector. We employ the theoretical framework of incentive contracts in order to identify and assess performance measures of university faculty determining the total income received from teaching, research and administrative duties. We estimate returns from academic productivity in Russia to be reflected in the academic salary by an evaluation of empirical models of the determinants of faculty pay depending on their productivity, current academic and administrative position, gender and seniority. We show that for the entire sample, faculty salary is positively associated with publication activity. Teaching is significant only for the entire sample, but not significant for subsamples. Administrative duties (expressed in the position held) are positively related to faculty pay: the largest effect is for rectors and vice-rectors, but for deans and heads of departments or laboratories the effect is also strong. Heads of universities and structural units receive a significant bonus for their administrative position. For research-oriented universities the largest effect in publication activity is for the number of papers in high ranking journals. In universities with no research status we discovered a significant gender gap: the male faculty earn more than their female colleagues. There is a positive linear relationship between salary and seniority for the entire sample and in universities with no special status, which corresponds to human capital theory. Salaries in universities requiring higher entrance exam scores are higher than in less selective higher education institutions. The salary in Moscow universities is higher than in the regional higher education institutions.
    Keywords: academic contracts, faculty pay, merit pay, incentive contract, international rankings, competitiveness of higher education.
    JEL: I21 I23 J31
    Date: 2018
  6. By: GIULI KESHELASHVILI (Iv.Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University)
    Abstract: Work offers discussion of the issues of value chain management and development in agribusiness. In particular, based on the study of business entities in Georgia it analyzes and assesses the process of value chain formation and role of the involved stakeholders that increase the product value for the consumers through organized cooperation.Value chain connects the raw material producers, middlemen, processing enterprises, sales markets, service providers and different parties, whose activities promote competitiveness of one another at marketplace and its maintenance through introduction of innovations in the processes of value chain. Value chain management is the instrument of strategic business analysis and planning that is used for coordination of the value chain components and resources. Effective management of value chain directly affects profitability of the involved stakeholders and satisfaction of consumers. The work demonstrates the main challenges hindering development and effectiveness of agribusiness management in Georgia, including land fragmentation, low availability of advanced technologies, lack of business management awareness and skills, poor organization of logistics and supply process, low opportunities of negotiating and performing agrarian marketing etc.Within the scopes of the research various cases of the agricultural cooperatives involved in the sector were studied and business cycles of priority sectors of Georgian agriculture were surveyed. Work was prepared on the basis of in-depth interviews with the industry experts, agribusiness managers and parties involved in the value chain. Secondary data (desk research) were collected through studying of the publications related to the issue and value chain reports.Seasonality of raw materials production and their insufficiency was found to be one of the main causes of instability of value chain and supply chain in agriculture sector. Participants of value chain do not perceive one another as partners and do not care properly about the quality stability thus reducing competitiveness of their businesses. In the process of research the emphasis was made on the problems of value chain management. In agribusiness, necessity of formation and setup of the full production chain allowing significant reduction of production costs was identified as one of the significant directions for production growth and development.Recommendations offered by the work would contribute to improvement of value chain management in agribusiness, in Georgia.
    Keywords: value chain, management, agribusiness, agricultural cooperative, production costs, supply chain, coordination.
    Date: 2018–06
  7. By: Matteo Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board)
    Abstract: We present a monthly indicator of geopolitical risk based on a tally of newspaper articles covering geopolitical tensions, and examine its evolution and effects since 1985. The geopolitical risk (GPR) index spikes around the Gulf War, after 9/11, during the 2003 Iraq invasion, during the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis, and after the Paris terrorist attacks. High geopolitical risk leads to a decline in real activity, lower stock returns, and movements in capital flows away from emerging economies and towards advanced economies. When we decompose the index into threats and acts components, the adverse effects of geopolitical risk are mostly driven by the threat of adverse geopolitical events. Extending our index back to 1900, geopolitical risk rose dramatically during the World War I and World War II, was elevated in the early 1980s, and has drifted upward since the beginning of the 21st century.
    Date: 2018
  8. By: Dmitry Poldnikov (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
    Abstract: The place of Russian law in European legal history is debated both in the national and international literature. The advocates of the European character of Russian law have to face the particularity of its legal culture, the sources of law, and the tradition of sui generis national identity. Yet, national identities and legal traditions are not innate but man-made and changeable. In this paper the focus on the period of the 19th century when Russian law was essentially modernized to match the best coeval European standards. It began in the early 1860s with the judicial and university reforms of Alexander II which introduced modern principles of judicial dispute resolution and professional legal education and lasted until the October revolution of 1917. The rapid and profound transformation of Russian law is best illustrated by the legislation in the domain of civil law, the leading branch of codified law in 19th century Europe. The pre-reformed Svod Zakonov (Digest of Laws) of 1833 (its 10th volume) was notably casuistic, inconsistent, and voluminous to the extent that it may not qualify as a modern code. The Draft Civil Code of 1905 could stand comparison with any European codification to date in terms of the systematic and coherent arrangement of general provisions on material civil law. Another important change was the progressive use of the best European legal experience: from the masked, fragmentary and unskilled borrowings in Svod Zakonov to a fully-fledged comparative legislation in the Draft Civil Code. A comprehensive comparison of all major European codes allowed the draft of a better piece of legislation but this has not been yet been researched by legal historians. The main question – how did this comparative approach came about – remains largely unanswered. In this paper attention is drawn to the decisive role of Russian legal scholarship in developing a comparative approach using an original synthesis of several streams of European legal thought (Savigny's historical school, German Pandectistics, French ecole de l'exegese, and Jhering's sociological approach) which it managed to develop in the second half of the 19th century. It is argued that such legal scholars as Meyer, Pobedonostsev, Pakhman, Shershenevich, Annenkov succeeded in overcoming the limits of the pre-reformed, literal knowledge of Svod Zakonov and began to study Russian civil law as part of a larger phenomenon (the law of the 'civilized nations') through dogmatic comparison which resembled the comparative legislation in western Europe. The evidence for this claim is taken from the main doctrinal works between 1840 and 1910 which represent both streams of comparison and it is analysed in the framework of comparative legal history. Special attention is paid to the contribution of dogmatic comparison in developing the general part of contract law as a recognizable hallmark of civil law in continental Europe which came to be adopted in the doctrinal writings and the draft legislation of the late Russian empire
    Keywords: history of private law (19th century), comparative legislation, Russian civil law, legal modernization
    JEL: Z
    Date: 2018
  9. By: VICTORIA NIKULINA (European University at Saint Petersburg); Maxim Bouev (European University at Saint Petersburg)
    Abstract: This paper attempts to examine herding behavior in the Russian stock market by implementing four different methods designed to test for herding by Chang et al. (2000), Christie&Huang (1995), Hwang&Salmon (2001) and Torrecillas et al (2016). The main goal is to investigate the implications of the interest rate and foreign exchange fluctuations for the stock market efficiency. The results of the work help to identify the sources of herding behavior in the Russian stock market.Employing different approaches towards measuring herding, it is possible to determine whether individuals copy each other?s actions (Torrecillas et al (2016)) or herd towards market views about market index (Chang et al. (2000), Christie&Huang (1995), Hwang&Salmon (2001)). This paper starts by the establishing the transition from efficient-market behavior to herding behavior by using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (Torrecillas et al (2016)) applied to MICEX closing prices within the period from September 1997 to December 2017. The DFA reveals the presence of persistent herding behavior during the 2007-2009 crisis. Next, Christie and Huang?s CSSD measure of stock returns is used to capture if herding related to the firm-specific risk in the portfolio is present at the market. Consistent with results of the previous studies, the method fails to establish traces of herding. Christie and Huang?s improved measure of CSSD with non-linear trend by Chang et al. (2000) yields evidence of herding in the down market during monetary policy announcements. The results of the Hwang and Salmon?s state space models help to demonstrate herding related to the market risk by analyzing relative dispersion of the time-varying betas for assets. The main finding is that changes in the betas can?t be explained by movements in fundamentals, which indicates intentional herding. Therefore, bad news for the stock market (interest rate increase and currency depreciation) induce intentional herding in the Russian stock market. Intentional herding during market stress has important implications for portfolio diversification for both diversified and undiversified investors.
    Keywords: herd behavior, equity return dispersion, Russian stock market, state space models, market efficiency, detrended fluctuation analysis, financial crisis
    JEL: G14 C21 C58
    Date: 2018–06
  10. By: Carol Graham (The Brookings Institution); Diana Liu (The Gallup Organization)
    Abstract: In this paper, we revisit our 2004 paper that found a strong positive association between happiness and future outcomes, based on data for Russia in the years 1995-2000. This paper takes advantage of a new Gallup panel for the U.S. for 2014-2016. We essentially duplicate our original method, and add some new specifications. We find remarkably similar patterns and associations between initial period happiness and later period outcomes in the U.S., based on a very different time and sample from Russia in the 1990’s. We believe that duplicating the earlier findings in a very different time and place is an important test of how robust this association is. We also find some new twists in the initial patterns that are interesting in their own right. The aim here is not only to show that the causality does not just run from the usual variables to higher or lower levels of well-being, but that the traits that subjective well-being metrics capture, such as happiness and hope, have their own independent role in the outcomes of the lives of myriad individuals around the world.
    Keywords: well-being, happiness
    JEL: D31 I31 J39
    Date: 2018–09
  11. By: Still, Swithun
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2017–02–23
  12. By: Curtiss, Jarmila; Gagalyuk, Taras; Ostapchuk, Igor
    Abstract: The paper investigates the effect of two types of public support measures, production-related subsidies and value added tax (VAT) reimbursements, on productivity of crop production in Ukraine. The analysis is carried out by means of production function difference-in-differences (fixed effects regression) approach using data provided by the State Statistic Service of Ukraine (SSSU) for the time period of 2008-2013. The public support effect is analyzed from different perspectives considering (i) potential differences related to two farm structural characteristics - holding membership and size, and (ii) time-variability. The results indicate that the relationships between both subsidies and VAT reimbursements and farm productivity statistically significantly vary across time periods and farm types. For nonholding farms in general, an increase in the volume of subsidies is found to statistically significantly increase farm productivity. However, entering subsidization is found to have a negative relation to farm productivity. The latter result may imply uncontrolled-for policy selection of farms in greater need for public support. The level of VATreimbursements is also found to be statistically significantly and positively related to farm productivity; this result is driven by VAT-reimbursements’ productivity impact mainly in the earlier years of the analyzed period. For holding companies, public support effects on farm productivity are found not statistically significant in models on pooled data (over time or only inconsistently statistically significant in some years.
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2017–08–29
  13. By: Shavgulidze, Rati; Zvyagintsev, Dmitry
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2017–08–31

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