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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sternik Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The actual development pattern displayed by the Russian economy in 2017 only in part answered the expectations voiced by the expert community in late 2016. First of all, last year there was no sustainable recovery at the macroeconomic level. Although the year-end GDP growth rate amounted to 1.5 percent, it still demonstrated rather strong volatility of its index over the course of the year. However, the professional participants of the real estate market, as well as Russian businesses in general, usually look not at GDP or industrial output indices, but at the exchange rate of the national currency, the movement of wages and salaries, and consumer demand, because the latter better describe the existing risks, while the movement pattern of GDP serves only as a background indicator. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, residential property prices, housing market, housing construction |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-320&r=cis |
| By: | Lissovolik, Yaroslav (Eurasian Development Bank); Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The beginning of the last year proved to be challenging for the EBD Member States: with oil prices plummeting, both financial markets and exchange rates were highly volatile. Nevertheless, as of the year’s end, the countries of the region saw exchange rates stabilize, and, in a number of cases, their national currencies strengthened considerably. Similarly, inflation in the EBD countries reached its historic minimum of 5.8% at the end of 2016 as compared to 12.8% in late 2015. In 2017, the most probable scenario is continued inertial recovery in the EDB Member States and inflation decreasing as external conditions stabilize. We project a 0.9% growth of the EDB economies, with a further 1.5% acceleration in 2018-2019. And there remain opportunities for reducing inflation that we expect to decrease from 5.8% at the end of 2016 to 4.7% in 2017. Limited demand, stabilized exchange rates and capital flows and a conservative monetary policy in most countries of the region will support the continued downward inflation trend. In 2017, the budget sector will be the main macroeconomic challenge for the EDB countries, given the growth in debt of the countries of the region (Belarus and Kazakhstan), reduced State budget reserves (the Russian Federation) and sizeable budget gaps in 2016 (Armenia and Kyrgyzstan). The oil output reduction agreement reached with the OPEC countries in 2016 was an important event for the region’s major economies and generated a considerable recovery of petroleum prices. The 2017 focus will now be on the OPEC countries’ ability to adhere to their quotas/obligations; historically, the OPEC countries have had great difficulty in observing discipline. Still, the agreement itself mitigates somewhat the risks of a sudden and large-scale fall of oil prices similar to their decline in late 2015 and early 2016. In the field of economic policy, the EAEU countries are just beginning to fully utilize, in the last few years, the potential of regionalism; for now, the agreement between the Eurasian Economic Union Member States and Vietnam, that took effect in 2016, can be recognized as one such achievement. Nevertheless, with the EAEU becoming more active internationally, 2017 may become the year of the EAEU’s breakthrough towards a more diversified system of trade alliances; here the Eurasian Economic Union’s negotiations with such countries as South Korea, Singapore and Israel will be of key importance. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomy; Forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU Countries; Economic Growth; Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E17 E52 E66 O11 |
| Date: | 2017–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2017_001&r=cis |
| By: | Bobylev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The oil and gas sector is playing an important role in the income generation for the state budget and Russia’s trade balance. In 2017, the volumes of crude oil production somewhat fell owing to Russia’s commitments to curb production as a result of the oil output cut agreement between some OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Under the so-called tax maneuver in force in the oil industry, refining depth went up, production and export of fuel oil moved down and export of crude oil, a highly lucrative source of state budget revenues, increased. In 2017, natural gas production and export hit an all-time peak. Despite the plunge of oil and gas world prices, the oil and gas sector continues to constitute over a half of Russian exports. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, oil and gas sector, oil production, oil prices, oil and gas export |
| JEL: | L71 L72 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-306&r=cis |
| By: | Lissovolik, Yaroslav (Eurasian Development Bank); Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The recovery in global commodity prices as well as the weakening currency imbalances had a positive effect on EDB countries' foreign trade flows. Whereas 1Q 2016 saw falling exports of goods and services in all EDB countries except Armenia, positive growth in exports was demonstrated by all EDB countries this year. Remittances coming off the back of revived economic activity in Russia contributed to improving the current account in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. In Kazakhstan, the rising current account deficit was due to growing dividend payments to direct foreign investors. The recovery in economic activity, accompanied by weakening inflation risks, had a positive impact on the living standards of the population in the region. In 1Q 2017, unlike in the same period last year, real wages started to demonstrate a positive trend in all EDB countries except Kazakhstan, although the rate of decline slowed in that country. The accelerated economic activity in EDB countries in the first half of 2017 led us to revise our GDP outlook for the full year. We raised our Russian GDP forecast by 0.3 pp to 1.4%, which, in its turn, has driven a higher 2017 GDP forecast for Belarus, up 0.1 pp to 1.4%. There were more considerable changes with respect to Kazakhstan and Armenia. The deferred effect of stimulatory fiscal and monetary policy in 2016 amid a quick recovery in remittances was reflected in consumer demand trends in Armenia in 1H 2017. In these circumstances, we raised Armenia's full-year GDP outlook from 2.9% to 5.2%. In this regard, amid the recovery in trade and economic growth rates, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries are taking further steps aimed at improving economic integration. In particular, in the transport and logistics sphere, quarantinable products will be transported within the territory of the EAEU under standardized rules from 1 July 2017. Uniform domestic tariffs have already been established for cargo transportation by rail for the EAEU. In addition, an important step on the way to further integration was the approval by the presidents of the EAEU countries of a key strategic document - Main Directions and Stages of the Coordinated (Agreed) Transport Policy - in December 2016. Also worth mentioning is further progress in developing the EAEU through building economic alliances - a joint statement was signed in June between the EAEU and the Republic of India on beginning negotiations on a Free Trade Area agreement. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomy; Forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU Countries; Economic Growth; Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E17 E52 E66 O11 |
| Date: | 2017–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2017_003&r=cis |
| By: | Abramov Alexander (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | In 2017, the Russian stock market once again reaffirmed its reputation of being one of the most volatile in the world. In contrast to the situation in 2016, when Russia's stock market, in terms of its rates of return, set a world record among the other 36 stock markets included in the analysis, in 2017 it joined the group of outsiders. Over that year, the RTS Index gained only 0.1 percent vs. 52.3 percent in 2016, and the MICEX Index (MOEX Russia Index)[1] at year-end demonstrated a negative rate of return of 5.5 percent, while over the previous year it had gained 26.8 percent (Fig. 1). The different movement patterns of the two Russian indexes with the same issuer portfolio can be explained by the higher rate of return of the RTS Index (which is denominated in foreign currencies) relative to the (ruble-denominated) MOEX Russia Index that it displays in response to the weakening USD-to-RUB exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, stock market, share market, bond market, derivatives market |
| JEL: | G01 G12 G18 G21 G24 G28 G32 G33 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-305&r=cis |
| By: | Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the impact of the Russian food and agricultural import ban on import of meat, the structural changes of trade pattern and reallocation of import flows of meat and meat products, and the price development in the import market and its impact on producers and consumers market for cattle, pork and poultry meat in the Russian Federation (RF). There is empirical evidence that the collapse of meat exports to Russia and, hence, the increase of meat prices happened even long before the import ban was introduced. The structure of Russian import market for meat has significantly changed. Brazil became the largest meat exporter in the Russian meat import market achieving market share in the total meat import of the RF almost 50% in 2015-2016. The structural changes of the Russian import market suggests that the beef and pork exporters are not price-takers on the one hand. On the other hand, they may be able to discriminate prices in the Russian import markets. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2017–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:269555&r=cis |
| By: | Lissovolik, Yaroslav (Eurasian Development Bank); Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The extent of global protectionism risks became obvious in the first half of 2018. The US’s escalating trade dispute with the EU and China creates considerable risks to global economic growth, which brings additional risks of an energy price correction for the EDB countries. Apart from external economic risks, weakening existing growth drivers and the need for new sources to boost economic development become new and growing challenges facing the EDB countries. One of the possible steps under the present conditions can be some softening in fiscal policy. Prospects of a fiscal stimulus emerged this year with the Russian President’s executive orders issued in May to provide additional financing to high-priority sectors. Additional expenditures can amount to up to RUB 8 trillion by 2020. Amid growing energy prices, there was an increase in spending in Kazakhstan in 1Q 2018, by 13.5% YoY, compared to almost zero growth in the same period of the previous year. At the same time, social expenditures (+20% YoY), particularly on healthcare (+23.6% YoY), outpace overall expenditure growth. However, using the budget mechanism to stimulate economic activity has some limitations, including budget rules established in oil exporting countries, such as the RF. On the other hand, some countries, like Belarus and Armenia, need to reduce government debt. An increase in spending amid a rise in commodity prices may also increase EDB countries’ dependence on global economic conditions. Thus, in order to find additional growth drivers, the EDB countries have to take measures to increase efficiency and labor productivity in their economies and to improve the investment climate. Diminishing the share of the shadow economy can be a potential economic growth driver for the EDB countries. According to the IMF, the shadow economy in the EDB countries constitutes 32.8% of Kazakhstan’s GDP, 30.1% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP, 32.4% of Belarus’s GDP, 37.8% of Tajikistan’s GDP, 36% of Armenia’s GDP, and 33.7% of Russia’s GDP. These estimates do not correspond to the countries’ official data due to differences in assessment methods applied. According to the Kazakhstan Statistics Committee, the shadow economy amounted to 25.8% of Kazakhstan’s GDP in 2016 and 23.8% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP. However, all conditions currently exist to decrease it. By decreasing the shadow economy, it will be possible to increase budget revenues, distribute revenues more equally, and improve the business climate and economy in general. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomy; Forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU Countries; Economic Growth; Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E17 E52 E66 O11 |
| Date: | 2018–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2018_002&r=cis |
| By: | Rada, Nicholas; Liefert, William; Liefert, Olga |
| Abstract: | Russia’s transition from a planned to a market economy during the 1990s resulted in a severe decline in agricultural gross output and the inputs used in production. By the late 1990s, the agricultural output decline had bottomed out and growth resumed. For some products, such as grain, the production rebound created surpluses for export, while for other products for which Russia was a net importer, such as meat, the output growth reduced imports. Although the output turnaround began in the late 1990s, input use fell until the mid-2000s as the sector continued to correct overexpansion during the Soviet period. Measures of Russian national and district-level total factor productivity (TFP) growth in agriculture from 1994 to 2013 reveal that recovery varied regionally across the country, though greater output specialization has been a general feature among districts. The most robust productivity growth occurred in the South, which has emerged as Russia’s most important agricultural district. The Central district also exhibited strong TFP growth in the later years of the study period, which supports a cautiously optimistic view of Russia’s future agricultural growth. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics, Productivity Analysis |
| Date: | 2017–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:256716&r=cis |
| By: | Deryugin Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Mamedov Arseny (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Belev Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sokolov Ilya (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tishchenko Tatiana (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Arlashkin Igor (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Barbashova Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Deshko Maria (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The year 2017 saw some notable changes in the main parameters of the execution of the general government budget of the Russian Federation: the budgetary system’s revenue gained nearly 1 percentage point of GDP, while expenditure, on the contrary, lost 1.2 percentage points of GDP. Thus, the revenue volume amounted to 32.6 percent of GDP, and that of expenditure – to 34.1 percent of GDP. As a result, the budgetary system’s deficit shrank by 2.2 percentage points of GDP, to 1.5 percent of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, intergovernmental relations |
| JEL: | H77 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-322&r=cis |
| By: | Lissovolik, Yaroslav (Eurasian Development Bank); Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The global background for the economic recovery of EDB member states has improved this year, in many ways due to rising oil prices and an improved economic growth outlook in the major centers of the global economy. Against the backdrop of improving regional trends in economic growth and mutual trade, we have revised our GDP growth forecasts for the EDB member states in 2017-2019. The appreciable acceleration of GDP growth in Russia beginning in the 2nd quarter of 2017 along with improvements in both foreign and domestic macroeconomic conditions have prompted an upgrade of our GDP growth forecast for 2017, from 1.4% to 1.7%. The preservation and continued improvement of external conditions for the Russian economy is shifting the balance of risks toward higher growth rates. Improvements in the Russian economic performance have delivered a boost to the economies of other EDB countries: the GDP growth forecasts for 2017 have been upgraded for Belarus, from 1.4% to 1.8%, Kyrgyzstan, from 3.7% to 4.0%, Tajikistan, from 6.2% to 7.2%, and Kazakhstan, from 3.4% to 3.7%. In the longer term, the biggest challenge for the global economy consists of the lingering imbalances that have contributed to crises over the past decade. They primarily include the high levels of inequality both within and among countries. The continuing paradox in the global economy is that the majority of countries that most need economic integration (such as the poorest nations or developing countries without access to the sea) are the most disadvantaged in terms of participation in regional or global economic unions or “clubs”. We focus particular attention on the dedollarization of the economies of EDB member states as yet another factor contributing to improvements in the regional economic environment. The level of dollarization has been declining this year in all EDB member states, in many ways due to the stabilization of exchange rates, lower inflation, improved economic activity and regained trust in the national currencies. Among the EDB member states, the most noticeable reductions in the level of dollarization (measured as the share of foreign currency deposits within the structure of the broad money supply) have been recorded in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan (the level of dollarization was close to 30% by mid-2017 in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Russia). Such positive trends will contribute to a more effective monetary policy in the regional economies, more conducive conditions to support lower inflation, as well as conditions aiding stronger financial stability. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomy; Forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU Countries; Economic Growth; Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E17 E52 E66 O11 |
| Date: | 2017–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2017_004&r=cis |
| By: | Lissovolik, Yaroslav (Eurasian Development Bank); Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The stabilisation of commodity prices and the resultant stabilisation of national currencies in most EDB countries in 1Q 2017 create a favourable basis for a recovery in trade in the EDB region. Suffice it to note that all EDB countries showed growth in mutual trade turnover in 1Q of the year; notably, the highest turnover growth rates were observed in Kazakhstan (nearly 41% y-o-y) and the Russian Federation (33.7% y-o-y). The situation with the countries’ mutual ties also improved as regards migrants’ remittances: growth in remittances to Kyrgyzstan exceeded 54% in 1Q 2017, while in Armenia this indicator was 14% y-o-y in 1Q 2017. In this review, our special report focuses on macroeconomic ties among the EDB countries and the economic growth transmission channels, mainly as regards foreign trade and remittance flows. Our study testifies to a considerable role of these factors in the regional countries’ economic recovery, but we also note that the region’s economies remain highly vulnerable to external shocks, and to energy price fluctuations above all. Russia’s economic growth outlook for 2017 has improved from 0.8% to 1.3%. The projection change was influenced by the first quarter’s economic data and a revised oil price projection that took into account the first quarter’s trends in world energy prices. The improvement in the Belarusian GDP projection from minus 0.5% to positive 1.3% over 2017 is caused by higher than expected economic activity recovery rates in the 1st quarter and by the agreement reached on gas prices and oil supply from the Russian Federation. Kazakhstan’s improved GDP outlook is caused by stronger external demand and by the expansion of the State budget deficit with a view to revitalising the banking system. More optimistic assumptions concerning the foreign economic situation and a revised fiscal boost were the main factors behind the improved GDP outlook for Kyrgyzstan. Tajikistan’s economic growth projection was revised downwards as its banking sector situation deteriorated. A key risk for the remainder of 2017 is renewed volatility in the commodity markets after a period of strengthening exchange rates of some EDB countries’ currencies. Early May developments in both the Russian and Kazakh financial markets showed that, after a considerable strengthening in the preceding months, the national currencies have become more sensitive to increased volatility in oil prices. We expect that, given the increased external risks, the CB of the Russian Federation may harden its rhetoric and slow the reduction in the key rate. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomy; Forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU Countries; Economic Growth; Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E17 E52 E66 O11 |
| Date: | 2017–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2017_002&r=cis |
| By: | Avraamova Elena (RANEPA); Loginov Dmitry (RANEPA); Grishina Elena (RANEPA); Florinskaya Yulia (RANEPA); Mkrtchian Nikita (RANEPA); Lyashok Viktor (RANEPA); Burdyak Alexandra (RANEPA); Maleva Tatiana (RANEPA); Poliakova Aleksandra (RANEPA); Eliseeva Marina (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The positive economic trends of 2017 – GDP growth, record-low inflation rate, revival of consumption and other – were estimated by most experts and analysts as evidence of the country’s embarking on a positive economic trajectory and the year 2017 was generally regarded as the year of economic revival. However, such a conclusion would not be complete without assessment of households’ well-being and other parameters which serve as indicators of the state of things in the social sphere. Economic processes have a decisive effect on the ongoing main social processes. In the past three years, an unstable and inconsistent economic situation in Russia could not but give rise to substantial changes in households’ social and economic situation. At the same time, the entire number of factors which were not related to the macroeconomic and volatile dynamics, but justified by other processes preset by lengthy previous periods affected much the social sphere. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, households, labor market, social sentiment, internal migration, long-term migration, external labor migration |
| JEL: | D14 J01 J61 J62 F22 J11 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-319&r=cis |
| By: | Bozhechkova Alexandra (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Trunin Pavel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Kiyutsevskaya Anna (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The Bank of Russia eased at slow enough pace its monetary policy in 2017 despite substantial deceleration in inflation, holding that ongoing inflation risks were high, including a possible decline in crude oil prices and capital outflow, upturn in consumer demand, fiscal policy uncertainty, as well as a relatively high and unstable degree of inflation expectations. In 2017, the monetary policy rate was cut by 2.25 percentage points to 7.75 percent per annum as the inflation rate over the same period (same-month-year-ago comparison) was down 2.6 percentage points to 2.5 percent. The Russian central bank cut the key interest rate six times: by 0.25 percentage points on March 27, by 0.5 percentage points on May 2, by 0.25 percentage points on June 19, by 0.5 percentage points on September 18, by 0.25 percentage points on October 30, and by 0.5 percentage points on December 15. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, monetary policy, money market, exchange rate, inflation, balance of payments |
| JEL: | E31 E43 E44 E51 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-323&r=cis |
| By: | Dezhina Irina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The year of 2017 can be described as a year of making plans, rather than assessing outputs, in the Russian scientific and technological sector. Preference was given to the development of a plan for the implementation of Scientific and Technological Development Strategy of the Russian Federation, including its integration with polices in progress as part of the National Technological Initiative of Russia (NTI), and to the endorsement of the state program for the development of a digital economy in the Russian Federation, including its synchronization with the NTI for the development of scientific and educational and technological competences. Finally, the 2017 full-year consideration of a new science legislation still continued at the end of year. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, R&D, science, technology |
| JEL: | O31 O32 O3 I28 I2 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-314&r=cis |
| By: | Knobel Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Baeva Marina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The Russian Federation acceded to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on August 22, 2012, and was therefore authorized to participate in the WTO trade dispute settlement system. The WTO dispute settlement system is in place pursuant to the Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU)[1]. Hence the Russian Federation has been entitled since August 2012 to resort to the system to uphold its trade interests. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, WTO, trade disputes |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-310&r=cis |
| By: | Milogolov Nikolai (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In this paper author compares Russian international tax rules with international “best practice” (incorporated in BEPS deliverables and other OECD and academic reports) with the aim of finding out ways of their improving and development. Main findings include: high level of uncertainty due to existence of distance in applying and interpretation typical international tax concepts (including permanent establishment, VAT place of supply and e-commerce related rules, beneficial owner, transfer pricing and others) between Russia and developed states. Second, some indicators of base erosion were estimated and they showed existence of BEPS behavior in Russia. Third, Russian treaty policy based on concluding OECD-Model treaties and participating in BEPS and implementing new complex anti-abuse rules and recommendations (such as LOB, PPT, CbC, for example) in combination with current court and fiscal practice can harm investment climate and lead to defeat in tax competition game in favor of more developed states |
| Keywords: | base erosion, profit shifting, distortion of competition, multinational corporations, tax competition, developing country, transitional country, tax policy, transfer pricing, permanent establishment, VAT, e-commerce, OECD, BEPS |
| JEL: | F23 H25 H26 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:wpaper:wpaper-2018-328&r=cis |
| By: | Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Malginov Georgiy (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | 2016 saw first publication of data from a performance measures framework for federal property management that was adopted on January 29, 2015 by Russian Government’s executive order No. 72 in lieu of performance measures for a public sector monitoring conducted by Rosstat in the early 2000s in pursuance of the Russian Government’s executive order No. 1 dated January 4, 1999 (as further amended on December 30, 2002). The performance measures framework contains data for the number of federal state unitary enterprises (FSUEs) and joint-stock companies (JSCs) with government equity participation that were previously published in privatization programs over a 3-year period (since 2011) and one-year period (prior to 2011). A new Forecast Plan (Program) for Federal Property Privatization and Guidelines for Federal Property Privatization for 2017–2019 adopted early in 2017[1] contains data dated only as of early 2016 (Table 1). As of early 2017, according to the Report of the Federal Agency for State Property Management (hereinafter Rosimushchestvo) on the implementation of privatization program for 2017–2019, the Russian Federation owned 1108 FSUEs and held an interest of 11 and 17 percent in 1416 JSCs and LLCs, respectively, marking a decline from the previous year’s number of economic agents with the same legal form of business. However, developments and processes that took place in 2017 only can be described using data from the performance measures framework for federal property management. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, public sector, privatization |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-317&r=cis |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The macroeconomic aspect of the investment model is determined by dynamics and structure of major indexes of the real sector and by monetary and financial markets as well as by characteristics of reproduction and usage of principal factors of production economy wide by types of economic activity. This allows not only to assess the investment potential of the economy from the point of view of mobilization of internal development reserves but also to reveal constraints and possibilities for raising the investment attractiveness for the Russian and foreign capital. Institutional environment, norms and rules of regulation the investment activity, development of financial and credit system, risks of changes in social and political, economic, infrastructure and organization and managerial factors represent another feature of the investment model. The investment model being a complex system includes a third aspect – mechanism of interaction of different subjects of the investment process (state sector, corporate sector, households, foreign investors) and investment decision making by economic entities. One should also take into consideration specific features of the investment model depending on time-frame. In short-term perspective, economic growth can be determined by a system of non-capital intensive development factors, in particular, decline in inflation, reduction of costs, and shutdown of inefficient products. In medium- and long-term perspective, the role of investments notably increases due to the need to resolve deep structural issues of modernization of production and raising competitiveness of the economy. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, fixed investment |
| JEL: | E20 E21 E22 E60 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-327&r=cis |
| By: | Klyachko Tatiana (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tokareva Galina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Semenova Elena (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | Recently the Russian education system went through significant qualitative and quantitative changes, which were both meaningful and institutional. At the same time, the system of education has been developing both extensively and rigorously. Preschool education has reached greater number of children. Extended learning activities of children have achieved new heights. Secondary vocational education included training of skilled workers and mid-tier specialists. Over eighty percent of high school graduates enter universities now. The unified state exam (USE) which was widely introduced in 2009 has become an important regulator for high school graduates flows to universities, which significantly increased educational migration of the young people. For example, in 2016, over 7.6 percent of high school graduates from other subjects of the Russian Federation strived to enter Moscow and St. Petersburg universities. Meanwhile before the introduction of USE that number did not exceed 1.5 percent of applicants, and the number of those wishing to enter universities in other regions has gone up from 3.5 percent to 16.5 percent. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, higher education, vocational education, job skills |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I25 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-321&r=cis |
| By: | Zatsepin Vasily (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Tsymbal Vitaly (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The number of Russian Armed Forces (RFAF) authorized strength at year-end 2017 increased 17,387 to 1,903,758 on the back of disbandment of the Federal Special Construction Agency (Spetsstroy); therefore, the RFAF’s total authorized strength rose to 1,013,628 from 1 million.[1] That was the first time when data on RFAF’s authorized war strength (1,700,000) were published by mass media, posting a substantial decrease from 5 million reported prior to the military reform of 2008-2012.The Russian Defense Ministry did not publish 2017 year-end service personnel statistics like it did in previous years; therefore, the total accountable strength presumably decreased to 240,000 from previous year’s 270,000 as a result of a 35,000 (13 percent) decline in the number of conscript personnel. Overall, the 2017 total number of conscript personnel inflow stood at 276,000, or 31,000 (10 percent) less than in 2016 . |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, military-industrial complex, military reform, defense order, military procurement, defense control |
| JEL: | D74 F52 H56 F51 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-316&r=cis |
| By: | Tleubayev, Alisher; Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Götz, Linde; Hockmann, Heinrich; Glauben, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Agriculture plays an important role for Kazakhstan not only because of rural employment, but also because of the diversity it brings to its oil dependent economy. A considerable increase in grain exports was achieved during the recent years, however, there still is a large room for in-creasing productivity and efficiency to boost the agricultural potential of the country further. The government of Kazakhstan has introduced several policy packages in the past to boost productivity and efficiency, however, the impact of these reforms has not been yet analyzed quantitatively. Micro level data collected from 200 farms in northern Kazakhstan in 2015 is used in the analysis, in order to fill this research gap. A mixture of evidences is found in terms of policy effect on productivity and efficiency. The results of the analysis showed that direct subsidy access reduced the efficiency, while access to supply chain infrastructure had the opposite effect and increased the efficiency. Therefore, the study concludes that the government should divert its policy support from direct subsidy payments to the improvement of agricultural infrastructure. This will influence positively not only productivity and efficiency, but also Kazakhstan’s commitments towards international and regional trade agreements. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:253397&r=cis |
| By: | Uzun Vasily (RANEPA); Shagaida Natalia (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Gataulina Ekaterina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Yanbykh Renata (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2017, the harvest of cereals, including wheat, Russia’s top agricultural export commodity, hit its record high. This happened mostly due to a significant rise in wheat harvest against the three previous years (Tables 34, 35). At the same time, the record-high harvest caused problems with the transportation of grain from the regions of the Siberian Federal District. Agricultural producers also note a decline in the profitability of agricultural production (on the average, by 8.4 percent, to 12-14 percent[1]) due to the accelerated growth in the prices of inputs by comparison with that of the sales price of grain, which lagged behind because of the record-high harvest. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, agricultural production |
| JEL: | Q13 Q14 Q15 Q16 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-308&r=cis |
| By: | Khromov Mikhail (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2017, banking sector demonstrated moderate development trends across main indicators. Asset holdings went up by 6 percent during the year somewhat below nominal growth rate of Russia’s GDP. The ratio of banks’ asset holdings and annual GDP remained at 91–92 percent for the second year in a row. The number of lending institutions decreased by 56 from 623 to 567 during the year. The process whereby some of the credit institutions were forced out of the market on the grounds of failing to meet the regulator’s requirements notably slowed down. Around fifty banking licenses were revoked in 2017 – half of what was seen in 2015 and 2016 when ninety banking licenses were revoked annually. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, banking sector, profit, capital, corporate loans, retail deposits |
| JEL: | E41 E51 G28 G21 G24 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-325&r=cis |
| By: | Natalia Vasilenok (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the influence of institutional quality and income inequality on the private provision of security. It is argued that the effects of both factors are far from straightforward and should be thoroughly examined when variation in institutional quality and income inequality is high. To conduct empirical analysis, data on the regions of Russia between 2009 and 2016 are used. It is hypothesized and empirically supported that institutional quality affects the relationship between the private and public provision of security. Weak institutions make the private provision of security a substitute for the public provision of security, whereas strong institutions promote complementarity between the two. It is also shown that income inequality increases the private provision of security when inequality is low and decreases it when inequality is high. This result can be attributed to economies of scale. |
| Keywords: | public goods, security, quality of institutions, income inequality. |
| JEL: | D60 H44 K42 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:197/ec/2018&r=cis |
| By: | Kazenin Konstantin (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2017, the social and economic development of the North Caucasian regions was proceeding amid introduction by the federal center of some new forms of regional economic support. A change in economic policy priorities in the North Caucasus was taking place amid sluggishness of the health resort sector, growing debt accruals for gas- and power supply and prevailing land-related conflicts. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, North Caucasus |
| JEL: | H11 H70 H77 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-315&r=cis |
| By: | Oshakbayev, Dauren; Taitukova, Regina; Petrick, Martin; Djanibekov, Nodir |
| Abstract: | With the goal of reducing the dependency on oil revenues, the Government of Kazakhstan has recently increased its budget allocations to prop up the domestic agricultural sector. Yet, many observers agree that it is less the amount of public spending that induces long-term growth than the quality of the regulatory environment. Against this background, the current paper analyses the nature and effects of state regulation in the cotton sector. In the early 2000s, it was considered to be the only example of private vertical coordination in Kazakhstani agriculture, which contrasted sharply with the state mandates imposed on producers in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. However, in 2007, regulation in Kazakhstan forced ginneries to use a complex warehouse receipt system without making sure that it was accepted by stakeholders and without appropriate institutions for implementing it in place. At the same time, it imposed financing restrictions on ginneries, which were major loan and input providers to farmers. Further measures included the establishment of a special economic zone to host a "cotton cluster". In the following years, private producers and investors turned away from cotton, and cotton area and output fell substantially. We argue that the cotton sector performance after 2007 shows how ill-designed regulation and government interference can turn a promising economic sector into decline. As an unintended side effect, the regulation promoted more diversified crop rotations based on high value crops. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2018–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:269556&r=cis |
| By: | Kuzyk Mikhail (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Zudin N. (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Simachev Yuri (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | One typical feature of Russia’s science sector, inherited from the Soviet period, is the predominant role in its research and development (R&D) activities of the ‘traditional’ scientific research organizations, represented by the research institutes operating under the system of government-funded academies of sciences (academic science), as well as by the research institutes and R&D bureaus subordinated to branch ministries and government departments (sectoral science); meanwhile, the role of higher educational institutions (HEE) in those activities was rather modest. At the same time, since the early 2000s, the volume of R&D projects launched in Russia by higher educational institutions and the number of researchers participating in them, has been increasing at a stable rate both in absolute and relative terms. As a result, over the last one-and-a-half decades, the number of researchers involved in the higher education sector increased more than 1.5 times, the sector’s relative share in the total number of researchers and total internal R&D costs[1] nearly doubled, and the corresponding costs incurred by higher educational institutions in constant prices increased more than 4-fold. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, R&D, science, technology |
| JEL: | O31 O32 O3 I28 I2 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-318&r=cis |
| By: | Gianfranco Giulioni; Edmondo Di Giuseppe; Massimiliano Pasqui; Piero Toscano; Francesco Miglietta |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we build a computational model for the analysis of international wheat spot price formation, its dynamics and the dynamics of internationally exchanged quantities. The model has been calibrated using FAOSTAT data to evaluate its in-sample predictive power. The model is able to generate wheat prices in twelve international markets and wheat used quantities in twenty-four world regions. The time span considered goes from 1992 to 2013. In our study, a particular attention was paid to the impact of Russian Federation's 2010 grain export ban on wheat price and internationally traded quantities. Among other results, we find that wheat average weighted world price in 2013 would have been 3.55\% lower than the observed one if the Russian Federation would not have imposed the export ban in 2010. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1807.10537&r=cis |
| By: | Tsukhlo Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | This Chapter has been prepared on the results of business surveys of industrial enterprises which have been conducted by the Gaidar Institute using a European harmonized method in monthly cycles since September 1992, covering the entire territory of the Russian Federation. The panel size is around 1,000 enterprises employing over 13 percent of industrial employees. The panel is shifted towards large enterprises for each of the segregated sub-industries. The ratio of returned questionnaires is in the range of 70-75 percent |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, industrial sector |
| JEL: | C53 E37 L21 L52 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-307&r=cis |
| By: | Chatellier, Vincent |
| Abstract: | The increase in beef consumption in several Asian countries is helping to strengthen competitive games between the world's leading beef exporters, including Australia, India, Brazil and the United States. The main importers of beef and veal, including the United States, China (with Hong-Kong), Japan and Russia, have some differentiated trajectories according to changes in domestic demand for beef and veal, sanitary conditions in supplier countries and sometimes geopolitical issues. The European Union, which is experiencing both a decline in its production and consumption of beef, is not a major player in international trade in this sector. Domestic demand is largely satisfied by European products and significant flows of live cattle and beef take place between Member States. Using the available customs databases both on a global scale (Comtrade and Baci) and the European Union (Comext), this article proposes an analysis on the evolution of the productive and commercial situation of the main players in the beef cattle sector for the period 2000 to 2015. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2017–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:inrasl:258321&r=cis |
| By: | Ganiev, Ibragim; Djanibekov, Nodir; Hasanov, Shavkat; Petrick, Martin |
| Abstract: | The present study assesses the state of doctoral research and postgraduate education in agricultural economics in higher education institutions (HEI) in Uzbekistan and outlines initiatives for change. To better understand the content, process, and outcomes of postgraduate education and doctoral research, a survey of 72 doctoral students in HEI was conducted. The survey data show that the respondents cooperate little with their peers outside of Uzbekistan, lack international peer-reviewed publications and training in relevant theories and methods, and are underrepresented in international scientific events and associations. Furthermore, the scarcity of research funds and individual reearch space, as well as an excessive teaching load were indicated as key factors affecting the quality of doctoral research. Almost all respondents were satisfied with their current supervision, but were interested in being co-supervised by foreign professors. Most PhD students wish to continue their professional career within academia. Future reforms should enhance the quality and relevance of structured education programmes for PhD students, raise the incentives for conducting high-quality research that is published internationally, and support national and international collaboration between researchers. |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:259805&r=cis |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Odhiambo, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | We analyze the evolution of fast emerging economies of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China & South Africa) and MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria & Turkey) countries, by assessing growth determinants throughout the conditional distributions of the growth rate and real GDP output for the period 2001-2011. An instrumenal variable (IV) quantile regression approach is complemented with Two-Stage-Least Squares and IV Least Absolute Deviations. We find that the highest rates of growth of real GDP per head, among the nine countries of this study, corresponded to China, India, Nigeria, Indonesia and Turkey, but the highest increases in real GDP per capita corresponded, in descending order, to Turkey China, Brazil, South Africa and India. This study analyzes the impacts of several indicators on the increase of the rate of growth of real GDP and on the logarithm of the real GDP. We analyze several limitations of the methodology, related with the selection of the explained and the explanatory variables, the effect of missing variables, and the particular problems of some indicators. Our results show that Net Foreign Direct Investment, Natural Resources, and Political Stability have a positive and significant impact on the rate of growth of real GDP or on real GDP. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth; Emerging countries; Quantile regression |
| JEL: | C52 F21 F23 O40 O50 |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88523&r=cis |
| By: | Drobyshevsky Sergey (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Bozhechkova Alexandra (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Trunin Pavel (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Sinelnikova-Muryleva Elena (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the mechanisms, direction and extent to which interest rates can affect economic growth. The authors analyze theoretical concepts and international economic practices in high-interest-rate environments to justify that high nominal and real interest rates may not dampen economic growth if there are mechanisms such as low inflation expectations, economy’s attractiveness to foreign investors, the technological transfer effect, the accumulation of domestic savings. By using a structural vector autoregression (VAR) to evaluate econometrically the effectiveness of the interest rate channel of Bank of Russia’s monetary policy transmission mechanism, the paper provides evidence to suggest that interest rate policy is partially efficient after the global financial crisis. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, inflation, inflation expectations, nominal interest rate, real interest rate, economic growth, interest rate channel, SVAR model |
| JEL: | E20 E31 E52 E58 G15 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2017-303&r=cis |
| By: | Wegmarshaus, Gert-Rüdiger |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to examine the conditions of higher education and the reform of doctoral graduation in Uzbekistan. The current system operates under strict government control. The President, the Supreme Attestation Commission at the Cabinet of Ministers regulating and monitoring academic graduation, and the relevant ministries fully determine the operation of the higher education and research institutions. State control leaves little room for academic self-rule or self-responsible university education. The teaching obligations of university staff fill the entire working day. This situation makes it almost impossible for university teachers to pursue an individual research agenda. The university system is chronically underfinanced. Technical equipment, library and information technology are not up to international standards, salary is comparably low providing few incentives for young researchers. The Uzbek Academy of Sciences serves as the main pillar of fundamental and applied research in the country. In 2013, doctoral graduation moved from a Soviet-style two-tier system including a PhD and a doctor of science degree to a more anglo-saxonian one-tier PhD system. The new President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev announced to return to a two-tier system by July 2017 and intends to notably raise the level of international cooperation of Uzbek academic institutions. |
| Keywords: | Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2017–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:259821&r=cis |
| By: | Lissovolik, Yaroslav (Eurasian Development Bank); Kuznetsov, Aleksei (Eurasian Development Bank); Berdigulova, Aigul (Eurasian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | World economic growth in 2017 was driven by an increase in business activity in both developed and key developing economies. In the context of falling deflation risk, as well as an improvement in unemployment – an important macroeconomic parameter – there has been a trend towards normalization of the US Federal Reserve System's monetary policy. The European Central Bank is also moving in the direction of reducing its quantitative easing program. Thus, monetary policy's supporting effect is gradually ending, but the system retains a lot of fiscal incentives to help accelerate economic growth. The rise in investment and the recovery of world trade in developed economies was the third component driving higher than expected growth in 2017. The world's positive economic growth trend drove a return to favorable conditions on world commodity markets. The average price for Brent crude in 2017 grew by 23.5% YoY. Prices for precious metals rose by 0.4% on average for the year, and non-precious metals grew by an average of 24.4%. Monetary policy in the main global economies will cease to be the main factor in supporting growth, but in Russia and other EDB countries, given current conditions, there is a chance to stimulate economic growth due to unprecedented low inflation and the possibility of a further lowering of the key rate. A softening of monetary policy in most of the region's countries will support investment activity. If a favorable external environment is maintained, positive trends can be expected to develop, including the restoration of foreign investment and growth of mutual trade between EDB countries. The increase in labor migrants' remittances will stimulate domestic demand in the region's economies, whose balance of payments largely depends on these transfers. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomy; Forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU Countries; Economic Growth; Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E17 E52 E66 O11 |
| Date: | 2018–02–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2018_001&r=cis |
| By: | Belyaeva, Maria; Bokusheva, Raushan |
| Abstract: | We conduct an examination of the climate effect to analyze the historical dependence of grain production on temperatures and precipitation levels, and project this dependence to estimate the productivity of different grain types in the mid- and long-terms, given four greenhouse gas concentration pathways. We find that altering temperatures have an equivocal effect on agriculture. The most productive zones of the southern black soil belt is projected to face considerable declines in yields, due to insufficient precipitation levels and high probability of heat waves during the summer vegetation period. The northern part, on the contrary, can experience increases in productivity as a result of milder and drier winters and warmer springs. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:253788&r=cis |
| By: | Bagdasaryan, Kniaz |
| Abstract: | Спустя два года после создания Евразийского экономического союза (ЕАЭС) многие европейские и американские экономисты не перестают распространять тезисы о чрезмерной политизированности интеграционного объединения, о слабой динамике его развития и низких экономических перспективах. Во-первых, не все государства-члены Союза являются членами Всемирной торговой организации, во-вторых, условия присоединения к Всемирной торговой организации этих государств отличаются. На этом фоне будущее Евразийского экономического союза зависит от многих факторов, в том числе от консенсуса по вопросам тарифных ставок, от наращивания темпов взаимной торговли, от развития и расширения внутреннего рынка, а также от поведения внешних торговых партнеров. Таким образом, автор проводит экономический анализ для выявления текущей позиции Евразийского экономического союза в мировой экономике с точки зрения международного уровня. Для ее объективного обоснования основными источниками исследования выбраны международные организации, такие как Всемирный Банк, Международный Валютный Фонд и Всемирная торговая организация. |
| Keywords: | Евразийский экономический союз, мировая хозяйственная система, соглашение о зоне свободной торговли, международное взаимодействие, международная торговля. |
| JEL: | F1 F5 F53 |
| Date: | 2016–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88552&r=cis |
| By: | Есенгазиева, Сауле |
| Abstract: | В условиях развития глобального экономического кризиса проблемы занятости населения, безработицы и мобильности трудовых ресурсов в Казахстане приобретают все большую актуальность и всегда находятся в центре внимания научной, общественной, политической и хозяйственной деятельности соответствующих ведомств, организаций и предприятий. В кризисный период в целях защиты граждан от безработицы государством была разработана стратегия, которую можно условно охарактеризовать, как «стратегия выживания». Данная стратегия направлена на реализацию государственных программ: создания социальных рабочих мест, переобучения и переподготовки специалистов, и организации молодежной практики. В исследовании проводилось интервью с работниками акиматов, сельскохозяйственных ведомств, сельскими предпринимателями и представителями несельскохозяйственного бизнеса в Южно-Казахстанской области (ЮКО). Основными направлениями развития несельскохозяйственного бизнеса в сельской местности ЮКО являются переработка сельскохозяйственного сырья и продукции, торговозакупочная деятельность, общественное питание в сельских населенных пунктах (придорожные магазины и кафе) и их бытовое обслуживание, строительство жилых и производственных построек, производство товаров народных промыслов, транспортные услуги. Развитие несельскохозяйственного бизнеса на селе будет содействовать диверсификации хозяйственной деятельности в сельской экономике, расширению источников формирования доходной базы местных бюджетов, повышению устойчивости развития сельских территорий в части расширения масштабов занятости и развития самозанятости сельского населения, а также повышению уровня его жизни. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2017–09–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:263688&r=cis |
| By: | Mogilevskii, Roman; Abdrazakova, Nazgul; Bolotbekova, Aida; Chalbasova, Saule; Dzhumaeva, Shoola; Tilekeyev, Kanat |
| Abstract: | Kyrgyz agriculture experienced substantial reform during the 1990s and early 2000s. Subsequently, the pace of reform slowed and at present the government does not appear to have any clear strategy for further development in the sector. Summarizing the outcomes of these reforms, a certain freedom granted to farmers stands out as one of the main achievements and an important reason for the sector’s efficiency. Peasant farms are effectively protected from attempts to administratively regulate crop structure or introduce any other types of market distortions. However, an insufficient level of investments is undermining long-term prospects for development in the sector. Supporting large professional players in the sector is one of the key policy priorities of the government. It is however necessary to provide space for these enterprises to emerge on their own. It is additionally important to ensure that any support policies in favor of such players also provide positive spillovers to the small farmers around them, and do not aim at replacing them mechanically. The list of incomplete policy reforms is very long, especially in the area of natural resource management and provision of other essential public goods. The state of pastures and irrigation systems is alarming and requires government support well above its current level. Understanding the key areas for government intervention and focusing interventions on public goods provision should be the key components of a future agricultural development strategy. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:253882&r=cis |
| By: | Radygin Alexandr (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Abramov Alexander (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Aksenov Ivan (RANEPA); Chernova Maria (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | Two main channels can be pointed out whereby the state participates in value added chains: through the operation of companies with state stakes, and through the services (in a broader sense of the work) produced by enterprises with state stakes and budget-funded organizations. Consequently, the assessment of the state sector scope inside the national economy consists, as a rule, of two components: an analysis of the relative share of biggest companies with state stakes – state-owned enterprises (SOE) in a country's aggregate economic statistics (the scope of state ownership); and an estimation of the input of the general government sector (GGS) in GDP. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, public sector, privatization |
| JEL: | K11 H82 L32 L33 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-311&r=cis |
| By: | Керимова, Укиляй |
| Abstract: | Перед агропромышленным комплексом Казахстана стоят кардинальные задачи по устойчивому развитию и наращиванию сельскохозяйственного производства, увеличению выпуска экспортоориентированной, конкурентоспособной продукции и обеспечению продовольственной безопасности страны. Сегодня для решения поставленных задач перед АПК страны принята Государственная программа развития АПК на 2017–2021 годы и внедряются в производство новые Законы «О сельскохозяйственных кооперативах», «О пастбищах» и др. Особое внимание в этих документах уделяется созданию крупных товарных хозяйств на основе кооперации. Анализ современного состояния развития сельского хозяйства в республике показал, что мелкие крестьянские хозяйства, состоящие из одной семьи или из группы людей, слабо оснащенные материально-техническими средствами, в одиночестве без объединений общих сил не в состоянии вести расширенное производство и установить межотраслевые связи в процессе производства и переработки. Эти хозяйства не в состоянии самостоятельно решать проблемы повышения конкурентоспособности производимой ими продукции, внедрения инноваций, поставок безопасных для здоровья населения продуктов питания и лишены возможности получать услуги высококвалифицированных специалистов. Основными сдерживающими факторами развития кооперативного движения в республике являются недостаточные меры государственной поддержки сельского хозяйства, кадрового обеспечения, несовершенство правого законодательства, налогообложения и отсутствие механизмов организации взаимоотношений внутри кооператива. Для реализации поставленных выше задач перед АПК страны, необходимо объединить мелкие крестьянские хозяйства в крупные сельскохозяйственные кооперативы по производству, переработке, хранению, транспортировке и сбыту сельскохозяйственной продукции. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2017–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:263687&r=cis |
| By: | Polezhaeva Natalia (RANEPA) |
| Abstract: | The first corporate governance code in its present-day meaning – the Cadbury Code – was adopted in the UK in 1992 when the Cadbury Committee on Corporate Governance Issues developed the guidelines for the best corporate governance practices. The Cadbury Code laid the foundation not only for British corporate governance codes, but also paved the way for development of such codes in Europe. Late in the 1990s and early in the 2000s, corporate governance codes were approved in Austria, Belgium, Germany, France, Switzerland and Sweden.[1] At the same period, similar documents were developed in Australia, Canada, the USA and Japan. In Russia, the first corporate governance code was adopted in 2002. At present, a majority of developing and developed countries have introduced such codes, too. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, financial market regulation |
| JEL: | E44 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-313&r=cis |
| By: | Faryna, Oleksandr; Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | This paper employs a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model to study the evolution of the response of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to foreign output and oil price shocks. During a two-decade observation period, cross-country trade and financial linkages experience no-table changes. We find CIS countries highly sensitive to global and regional shocks, with that sensitivity increasing after the global financial crisis. CIS countries show strongest responses to output shocks originating in the US, Russia and within the region itself, but their sensitivity to euro area shocks also increases substantially. Despite growing trade relations with China, the responses of CIS countries to output shocks originating in China are still relatively moderate. |
| JEL: | C32 F42 F43 E32 |
| Date: | 2018–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2018_017&r=cis |
| By: | Volovik Nadezhda (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Balandina Galina (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | In 2016, the growth rates of world economy hit the all-time low since the global financial crisis and constituted 3.2 percent. However, the global economy is experiencing a broad-based cyclical upturn started in mid-2016 is gaining momentum. In this context, international financial organizations have adjusted their short-and medium-term forecasts to the upside. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F19 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-309&r=cis |
| By: | Бекенова, Гульнар |
| Abstract: | В Казахстане ежегодно государство выделяет образовательные гранты на сельскохозяйственные специальности, однако агропромышленный комплекс (АПК) до сих пор не достаточно обеспечен квалифицированными аграрными кадрами, а сельские районы остаются малопривлекательными для молодых специалистов. Реализуемая государством с 2009 года программа «С дипломом в село» по привлечению молодых кадров в сельскую местность имеет низкую эффективность и охват аграрных специальностей. Развитие современной системы аграрного образования невозможно без анализа изменений внешней среды и влияния различных факторов на конкурентоспособность выпускников. Цель аналитического исследования - анализ мотивации, стремлений и карьерных ожиданий обучающихся аграрного университета и разработка рекомендаций по мотивации, планированию карьеры, повышению трудоустройства выпускников. В процессе исследования применялись общенаучные и статистические методы анализа, приемы сравнений и обобщений, особое место занимает метод анкетного опроса. По результатам исследования определяющими факторами выбора университета и специальности выступают домашние факторы. Среди бакалавров и магистрантов еще присутствуют не определившиеся с выбором профессии, более половины бакалавров не имеют четких карьерных планов, а их карьерные ожидания зачастую завышены. Большинство обучающихся хотят работать в городе, а его основными причинами выступают неудовлетворенность размером будущей зарплаты, экономическими и социально-бытовыми условиями села. Для достижения высокой конкурентоспособности и трудоустройства выпускников аграрных университетов рекомендуется усилить работу по формированию мотивированного контингента обучающихся, оказание помощи в построении карьерных планов бакалавров введением курсов по карьерному планированию, совершенствовать государственные программы занятости молодежи, включить в них больше нужных селу аграрных специальностей, развивать студенческое предпринимательство, практикоориентированное обучение, улучшить социально-бытовые условия села, повышение оплаты аграрного труда, расширение возможностей для карьерного роста молодых специалистов в АПК. |
| Keywords: | Labor and Human Capital, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession |
| Date: | 2017–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:263752&r=cis |
| By: | Celbis, Mehmet Guney (UNU-MERIT, and Piri Reis University); Wong, Pui-hang (UNU-MERIT); Guznajeva, Tatjana (Technopolis Group) |
| Abstract: | This study presents novel research on the economic geography of Belarus. The 118 regions of Belarus are examined in relation to the Eurasian Customs Union (EACU) through the period 2005-2014. Spatial clusters and outliers are identified and compared across the periods prior and after the establishment of the EACU. We observe that EACU membership corresponds to a slowdown in the process of regional economic convergence in Belarus, and intensified economic competition with a geographical dimension among regions. We also observe that urban regions have benefited more from the EACU than less urbanised areas. |
| Keywords: | Eurasian Customs Union, Belarus, convergence, spatial analysis, economic integration |
| JEL: | F15 F55 O47 R11 R12 R58 |
| Date: | 2018–07–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2018029&r=cis |
| By: | Shadrin Artem (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | According to the 2017 year-end data, the regional consolidated budgets and local government off-budget funds’ budgets ran a deficit of RUB 61.5 billion or 0.07 percent of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, regional and municipal finances, loan market |
| JEL: | H71 H74 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-324&r=cis |
| By: | Davidson, Rachael |
| Abstract: | The global dairy market has been adversely affected by increased milk supply in Europe, the US and the Southern hemisphere. This, amidst a reduction in demand for imported dairy commodities by China and Russia, has seen a global downturn in milk prices. New Zealand dairy farmers have been faced with depressed milk price in the last few seasons, and in response to the financial pressures, have been forced to consider farm system changes to minimise the impact. Many of the system adjustments being implemented to manage the current downturn have led to improved efficiency and are similar to those that will help farmers meet existing and proposed environmental limits being enforced by regional councils. Could the adjustments being made have lasting environmental benefits for farmers and the industry? This study aims to identify the changes in farm systems and their management as a consequence of lower milk prices, and whether these changes have improved environmental outcomes. It also aims to identify whether these outcomes are likely to last once milk price recovers, thus determining whether the current period of low milk price has a silver lining. The key adjustments made to dairy farm systems in response to low milk price were reductions in cow numbers, fertiliser use and supplementary feed use. The methodology used to determine the environmental impacts of these adjustments involved creating typical regional farms and modelling the changes experienced from a drop in milk price in Farmax and Overseer. These adjustments had subsequent impacts on milk production. The changes observed had slight implications for environmental outputs, including nitrogen leaching and greenhouse gas emissions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management, Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2017–02–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aare17:258664&r=cis |
| By: | Beckman, Jayson; Dyck, John; Heerman, Kari |
| Abstract: | Global agricultural trade, about $1 trillion in 2014, has been rising about 3.6 percent per year for the last two decades, facilitated by technological change and productivity gains, as well as trade liberalization. In addition, trade patterns have shifted and trade policy has evolved. The largest importers and exporters of agricultural products are largely unchanged over the last 20 years, but five countries—Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, and China—account for much of the increase in trade. The landscape of policies affecting trade is increasingly complex, and agricultural trade is facing obstacles that may restrict future growth. Despite trade rules such as in the World Trade Organization, countries impose trade barriers. High tariffs are permitted for many products in many countries. Rising domestic support in some countries could undermine a level playing field for agricultural trade. Moreover, sanitary and phytosanitary barriers and other technical barriers to trade are growing, with disagreements about the scientific basis for rejecting products becoming particularly contentious. This report surveys 20 years (1995-2014) of trends in world agricultural trade (1995-2016 for some measures of U.S. agricultural trade) and summarizes key policy issues that will confront decision makers and shape agricultural trade in the coming years. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2017–11–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersib:265270&r=cis |
| By: | Goretzki, Philipp; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas; Loy, Jens-Peter |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Beitrag stellt empirische Ergebnisse zur Analyse von Marktverhalten der russischen Exporteure auf den internationalen Märkten für Düngemittel vor. Der Fokus auf Russland begründet sich darin, dass das Land beim Einsturz des Kali-Kartells stark im Rampenlicht stand. Bei zwei der drei exportierten Düngemittelgüter hat Russland einen sehr großen Anteil an den Gesamtexporten und macht, mit einigen wenigen anderen Ländern zusammen, über die Hälfte der globalen Versorgung aus. Zur Überprüfung der Hypothesen zum Marktverhalten wird als Grundmodell der "pricing-to-market" (PTM)-Ansatz nach KRUGMAN (1986, 1987) gewählt. Zur empirischen Überprüfung kommt das weiterentwickelte Modell von KNETTER (1989) zur Anwendung. Im Ergebnis zeigt sich, dass ein imperfekter Wettbewerb auf dem russischen Exportmarkt für Stickstoffdüngemittel in zwei Drittel der untersuchten Destinationsländer herrscht. Auf dem Exportmarkt für Kali ließ sich nur in einem von 9 untersuchenden Ländern ein ausreichend vollkommener Markt finden. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:254052&r=cis |
| By: | Hockmann, Heinrich; Ramanovich, Mikhail |
| Abstract: | This Discussion Paper provides an analysis of competitiveness of the Belarus’ dairy sector based on international trade indicators. The ex-post analysis is extended by an ex-ante analysis in order to gain detailed insights into the sector’s future opportunities and challenges. Systematic access is established through relevant determinants with respect to Porter’s diamond. Ex-post analysis results indicate a strong position of Belarus in the international dairy trade although limited to homogenous products like milk powder and evaporated milk. Competitive disadvantages were revealed for highly processed dairy products. The ex-ante analysis through Porter’s diamond model reveals the necessary prerequisites for potentially successful future developments in the dairy chain. Natural conditions, infrastructure and supporting industries, even though amendable, affect competitiveness positively. Competitive disadvantages result from a low demand for vertically and horizontally differentiated products, weak factor conditions with regard to capital and labour input, and inappropriate policy. These determinants need to be improved urgently otherwise Belarus may forgo its present relatively good position in international dairy markets. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Industrial Organization, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, International Development, International Relations/Trade, Productivity Analysis |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamodp:91962&r=cis |
| By: | Izryadnova Olga (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The economic situation in 2017 was characterized by a gradual recovery of positive dynamics. GDP in 2017 constituted RUB 92.08 trillion up 1.5 percent compared to the previous year. First signed of business revival were observed in H2 2016 driven by price growth on hydrocarbons and strengthening of the ruble affected the dynamic and structure of the external trade turnover and domestic production. However, instability of factors both stimulating and curbing economic development provoked changes of quarter-by-quarter GDP dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Russian economy, production, external and internal demand, GDP structure |
| JEL: | G28 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2018-326&r=cis |