nep-cis New Economics Papers
on Confederation of Independent States
Issue of 2018‒08‒27
nine papers chosen by

  1. The role of regional and sectoral factors in Russian inflation developments By Elena Deryugina; Natalia Karlova; Alexey Ponomarenko; Anna Tsvetkova
  2. A ‘European Silk Road’ By Philipp Heimberger; Mario Holzner; Artem Kochnev
  3. Market power in the international fertiliser market: empirical evidence for exports from Russia By Goretzki, Philipp; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas; Loy, Jens-Peter
  4. Das Freihandelsabkommen zwischen der EU und Georgien: Auswirkungen auf Agrarhandel und Wohlfahrt By Koester, Ulrich
  5. The EU-Georgia trade agreement: The impact on agricultural trade and welfare By Koester, Ulrich
  6. Сучасний стан і тенденції економічної безпеки агрохолдингів в Україні By Dub, Bohdana
  7. Проблеми ефективного забезпечення економічної безпеки підприємства в умовах нових геополітичних викликів By Dub, Bohdana
  8. К общей теории социально-экономического развития By Polterovich, Victor
  9. 20th Century History of Latvia in Literary Narratives By Alina Romanovska

  1. By: Elena Deryugina (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Natalia Karlova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Alexey Ponomarenko (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation); Anna Tsvetkova (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)
    Abstract: This paper examines the relative roles of region-specific and commodity-specific developments in the consumer price setting in Russia. For this purpose, we estimate a dynamic hierarchical factor model using inflation rates across regions and sectors. We found little evidence of association between region-specific factors and inflation developments, although there are several regions (mostly located in the Far East and North Caucasus) where the idiosyncratic component may contribute substantially. Conversely, the role of cross-commodity relative price changes in inflation developments in Russia is substantial.
    Keywords: dynamic hierarchical factor model, regional inflation, relative prices, Russia
    JEL: C38 E31 D4
    Date: 2018–07
  2. By: Philipp Heimberger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Artem Kochnev
    Abstract: The German version can be found here. In this study we argue for a ‘Big Push’ in infrastructure investments in greater Europe. We propose the building of a European Silk Road, which connects the industrial centres in the west with the populous, but less developed regions in the east of the continent and thereby is meant to generate more growth and employment in the short term as well as in the medium and long term. After its completion, the European Silk Road would extend overland around 11,000 kilometres on a northern route from Lisbon to Uralsk on the Russian-Kazakh border and on a southern route from Milan to Volgograd and Baku. Central parts are the route from Lyon to Moscow in the north and from Milan to Constanţa in the south. The southern route would link Central Europe with the Black Sea area and the Caspian Sea littoral states. A state-of-the-art motorway and high-speed railway line with a string of logistics centres, seaports, river ports and airports shall set new European standards, among others in e-mobility. The full extension would constitute around EUR 1,000 billion or approximately 8% of the gross domestic product of the countries situated along its two routes. The costs relative to the EU’s economic output amount to about 7%. According to a conservative estimate, the European Silk Road could lead to an economic growth of 3.5% on average and an increase in employment of around 2 million along its routes in the course of an investment period of 10 years. Under favourable circumstances and at continued low interest rates, an employment creation of over 7 million can be expected in greater Europe. The improved infrastructure of the key route could yield significant time savings of over 8% in road transport on the northern route into the central region of Russia alone. On average this would save approximately 2.5 hours, for instance from Vienna. Thus the countries along the northern route would be able to increase their exports to Russia by more than 11%. This would imply additional exports of over EUR 12.5 billion. The Austrian export industry would particularly benefit from these infrastructural measures. Austria’s exports to Russia would rise by over 14%. This corresponds to about EUR 330 million. The construction projects would create 34,000 jobs in Austria. Under favourable conditions, up to 121,000 new jobs could be created in Austria. Summary A ‘European Silk Road’ The study concludes that Europe should respond to China’s New Silk Road initiative with a coherent infrastructure network and transport strategy of its own to leverage its economic potential. It should not rely on China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to achieve this, but invest itself to ensure that it suits European priorities. Nevertheless, a ‘European Silk Road’ can be seen as complementary to China’s efforts. The study finds that the development of a European Silk Road could create 2-7 million new jobs and could increase GDP on average by 3.5% in Wider Europe over a ten-year period. Eastern Europe in particular needs an upgrading of its transport infrastructure. If this is achieved, the boost to incomes and living standards would be particularly significant in that part of the continent, as a ‘big push’ in transport infrastructure investment has the potential to industrialise broad sectors of the economy.
    Keywords: infrastructure, transport, Europe, China, Silk Road, growth, industrialisation, international trade
    JEL: H54 O18 R41 R42 L92
    Date: 2018–08
  3. By: Goretzki, Philipp; Perekhozhuk, Oleksandr; Glauben, Thomas; Loy, Jens-Peter
    Abstract: This study presents empirical evidence for the behaviour of Russian exporters in the international fertiliser market. Russia is in the spotlight since the potash cartel has collapsed. In 2012, Russia became the world’s second-largest exporter increasing its potash exports from 1996 to 2012 more than two times. PTM approach developed by Krugman (1986, 1987) is chosen to test the market behaviour. Imperfect competition in the Russian export market for nitrogen fertilisers is revealed in two-thirds of the destination countries under study. In the export market for potash, a sufficiently perfect market is found in only one out of 9 countries.
    Keywords: Industrial Organization
    Date: 2017–08–28
  4. By: Koester, Ulrich
    Abstract: Die EU hat neue Abkommen mit der Ukraine, Moldawien und Georgien in Form der sogenannten Vertieften und Umfassenden Freihandelszone (DCFTA) unterzeichnet. Dieser Policy Brief konzentriert sich nur auf Georgien, um die zugrundeliegenden Annahmen bei der Wirkungsanalyse zu veranschaulichen. Da das Abkommen mit Georgien erst im September 2016 in Kraft trat, wird eine Schätzung der quantifizierten Auswirkungen noch einige Zeit auf sich warten lassen. Dieser Policy Brief analysiert einen wichtigen Bestandteil des Abkommens, nämlich das Freihandelsabkommen für Agrarprodukte. Es ist vorgesehen, dass in Zukunft vollständig auf Zölle verzichtet werden soll; bisher führt allerdings nur Georgien zollfrei aus der EU ein. Die EU hat nur die von der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) begrenzten Sätze reduziert und wendet darüber hinaus noch das sogenannte Einfuhrpreissystem und sogar Quoten für Knoblauchimporte an. Die Auswirkungen auf den Handel könnten unter Umständen bedeutsam sein, da die EU Agrarimporte noch immer sehr stark schützt und Georgien den Lebensstandard jener 50 Prozent seiner Bevölkerung verbessern könnte, die noch immer hauptsächlich von der Landwirtschaft leben. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Georgien insgesamt profitieren könnte, wenn Händler in Georgien ansässig sind. Dabei resultiert der Gewinn nicht nur aus regionaler Umleitung georgischer Exporte, sondern auch aus Exporten georgischer Produkte, bei denen Georgien in einer Importsituation ist. Diese zusätzlichen Exporte in die EU können durch zusätzliche Importe vom Weltmarkt ersetzt werden.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2017–08–10
  5. By: Koester, Ulrich
    Abstract: The EU has signed new agreements with Ukraine, Moldavia, and Ukraine, the so-called Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA). This policy brief only focuses on Georgia to exemplify the mythology and some important specifics of the participating countries that differ somewhat, but are important for assessing the impact. The agreement with Georgia became effective in September 2016; therefore, accurate estimation of the quantified effects was delayed for some time. This policy brief focusses on the free trade agreement on agricultural products. Georgia benefits from trade preferences for import to the EU and the EU likewise from exports to Georgia. It is foreseen that tariffs will be abolished completely in the future, but at present it is only Georgia which has abolished tariffs for imports from the EU. The EU has only reduced the World Trade Organization (WTO) bounded rates and, in addition, it still applies the so-called entry price system and even quotas for imports of garlic. Effects on trade might be important because the EU still highly protects agricultural imports and thus the standard of living for the 50 percent of Georgians living mainly from farming may improve. The findings are that Georgia may gain in total, if traders live in Georgia. The gain results from both redirection of Georgian exports from other destinations and additional exports of Georgian products. These additional exports to the EU may be replaced by additional imports from low price suppliers on the world market.
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade
    Date: 2017–08–10
  6. By: Dub, Bohdana
    Abstract: Article aim is to consider agricultural holdings of Ukraine in terms of economic security and the basic conditions of their formation and activities. Established stages of development, compared land bank of holding agrarian companies, and determined the geographic distribution, the levels of debt security, reputation, financial reliability, effectiveness of largest agricultural holdings. Posted arguments concerning the improvement of the integrated agricultural enterprises’ economic security system based on considering functional components. Agricultural holdings formation impact on state food and environmental security. Periodic adverse reports of bankruptcy, scandals on bad product quality, financial instability, raider seizure and so on actualize study of agricultural holdings from the standpoint of guaranteeing economic security.
    Keywords: agricultural holding, vertically integrated structures, agri-industrial integration, agribusiness, agrisector, agriholdingization, agri-industrial company
    JEL: M21 Q13
    Date: 2017
  7. By: Dub, Bohdana
    Abstract: The purpose of research is to identify key challenges and problems that businesses face today while ensuring economic security and to outline their possible solutions. The issue of economic security at enterprises and industries in the period of globalization, informatization, intellectualization of the modern economy, drastic technological changes (including the internet of things, big data) became more complex and contains more external and internal factors. There are clearly apparent hierarchy levels "international economic security - economic security of Ukraine (national) - economic security of business as economy sector - economic security of enterprise - economic security of business activities". Definition and accurate risk assessment is crucial in a system of enterprise economic security. The first step to effectively ensure enterprise economic security is to understand the relationship between the terms of threats, risks, vulnerabilities and others. It is important to understand the differences to understand when you have a true risk to the company. In our opinion, the most logical relationship between concepts is as follows: danger - threat - risk. The article presents external and internal threats in the current economic conditions, including political and economic changes (Brexit, changes in the US administration), technological innovation, social issues and more. State as part of the environment on the legislative, executive and judicial levels conducts, coordinates and controls the financial and credit, foreign trade, tax, regulatory, innovation and investment, environmental, social policy and labour market regulation. Central and local government have if not always direct, then the indirect impact on enterprise economic security. Enterprises should pay huge attention to a number of strategic, operational and external threats. Effective ensuring of enterprise economic security is critical, as there are number of vulnerable items in each company (profitability, reputation, activities, business models, strategies, even simple reproduction at company). Early detection and adequate response to the threats are part of an integrated, comprehensive system of enterprise economic security.
    Keywords: enterprise economic security, geopolitics, threats, challenges, risks, business activities, international business
    JEL: D21 E66 G32
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Polterovich, Victor
    Abstract: A new approach to understanding social and economic development is proposed, based on consideration of the evolution of coordination mechanisms. The work consists of two parts. In the first part, a critical analysis of four recently proposed theories of social development, focusing on geographical, institutional or cultural factors, is given. These theories have greatly enriched our understanding of the evolution of society, however, as analysis shows, none of them provides a satisfactory description of the driving forces and mechanisms of this evolution; the main reason is rooted in their common shortcoming - monocausality. It is proposed to distinguish between two types of development, catching up and leading. The basic ideas of the theory of catching-up development are presented. This approach makes it possible to explain the phenomenon of the "economic miracle" as a result of mutually conditioned changes in culture, institutions, technological progress and well-being in the context of interaction of competition, power and collaboration mechanisms. The second part is devoted to the theory of leading socioeconomic development. . It is shown how in Western Europe, as a result of the interaction of the above four factors, specific forms and combinations of the three main mechanisms of coordination - competition, power and cooperation - emerged at each stage of evolution. I emphasize the importance of ideology and the phenomenon of technical progress in the formation of institutions of economic and political competition that contributed to the creation of the welfare state. These changes and economic growth created the conditions for further transformation of civil culture: increasing levels of trust, tolerance, altruism and cosmopolitanism, expanding the planned horizon. The decrease in the level of coercion built into the mechanisms of power and competition are demonstrated as well as the expansion of the role of collaboration. A hypothesis is advanced that the speed of this process depends on geographical factors. The idea of welfare world is discussed.
    Keywords: inclusive and extractive institutions, limited and open access orders, cycle of emancipation, violence, rent, power, competition, collaboration, industrial revolution, welfare state, civic culture
    JEL: B4 B52 D7 H1 N4 O14 P11 P5
    Date: 2018–07–24
  9. By: Alina Romanovska (Daugavpils University)
    Abstract: The research focuses on contemporary Latvian fiction that reflects the history of the 20th century. Since 2015, the number of such works in Latvia has grown rapidly. To a great extent, it has been facilitated by the today?s historical political situation, namely, the fact that the year 2018 is the centenary of the Republic of Latvia, which becomes an incentive to activate the attempts of restoration and understanding of the state?s history. The analysis of fictional narratives is carried out by using the ideas of New Historicism and Literary anthropology, as well as the theories of collective memory.Writing history in literary form not only constructs a shared space of memories, but also provides an opportunity to reflect, understand and create a national identity. By means of fictional narratives, the past becomes a factor in creating solidarity. Writers develop peculiar testimonies for a certain period of time ? they focus on both the relatively recent past, which can be described by their own and their contemporaries? memories, as well as earlier events, which are described by using archival documents, oral testimonies, diaries and other materials. When representing the past, the narration strategies characteristic to fiction are combined with the reliance on historical documents, thus creating contemporary literary genres.
    Keywords: Latvian fiction, History, New Historicism, Literary anthropology, Collective memory, National identity
    Date: 2018–06

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